ASX Stock Pickers '06

[doctorj]

I agree with everything that's been said. Picking six stocks for a buy and hold over the course of the year isn't a useful metric for decided who the best traders are. It was never meant to be that though. It was intended to be a bit of fun where we could all take a stab at what was going to be the next big thing without any great time commitment to take more out of our busy schedules.

That and I don't have the time to manage any of the more complicated trading games you suggest. As it is, I'd have to ask someone to update the results for the months of feb and mar (and potentially april).

If someone is willing to volunteer their time for a more complex comeptition, I'm fine with that. And ofcourse there's no reason why two competitions can run in parrallel if you're volunteering Tech, I'd still be happy to run my 'low tech' comp.

 

[tech/a]

Doc
Im happy for it to run but I dont wish to record results.
Thats why I made it upto the individual.
Anyway looks like way less than enough people are interested so Just go with yours.
In future if someone could come up with the software maybe it would be worth thinking about.

May go a way to proving how many can trade profitably in a year.

Even buy and hold 6 stocks as you suggest I reckon that less than 20% are in profit at the end of a year with their 6 stocks.

You can pick any 6 even those that someone else has picked cant you?

 

[doctorj]

You can pick any 6 even those that someone else has picked cant you?

Don't see why not.

Rules:
1. You must pick 6 stocks listed on the ASX.
2. One entry per person. There are no minimum post requirements.
3. Your entry must be submitted by 1500 WST on 1/1/06.
4. You may pick stocks even if someone else has selected them.
5. Results will be calculated based upon equal proportions in each of your six stocks using closing prices for CY '05. Interim results will be published at the end of each month with the winner being the person with the highest % gain on their "portfolio" using the last traded price during CY '06.
6. The winner will receive an exclusive congratualatory post from myself.

I notice Nick has looked at someone's tips over on Reefcap. It'll be interesting to see what he picks.

 

[brisvegas]

ok i'll have a go at the investment game here . thing is the stocks i pick here i wouldnt neccessarily buy at open on tuesday .i actually hold most of these just a tad cheaper than what they are now . picking these on fundementals more than anything with one fully spec thrown in

PEM
HDR
FLX
GUN
ARQ
AGS

no diversification there , all resources . certainly wouldnt have whole portfolio that way but after all this is just for fun . cant see the energy issue going away . Zinc has great fundementals going forwards to rise . GUN has a couple very good prospects on the go , funding issues may weaken them at some stage . AGS is just a straight out uranium punt . was hard to leave a couple of my fave resources out but 6 is the limit



also being investment game here we have to include divs with franking ok

 

[Julia]

Don't see why not.

Rules:
1. You must pick 6 stocks listed on the ASX.
2. One entry per person. There are no minimum post requirements.
3. Your entry must be submitted by 1500 WST on 1/1/06.
4. You may pick stocks even if someone else has selected them.
5. Results will be calculated based upon equal proportions in each of your six stocks using closing prices for CY '05. Interim results will be published at the end of each month with the winner being the person with the highest % gain on their "portfolio" using the last traded price during CY '06.
6. The winner will receive an exclusive congratualatory post from myself.

I notice Nick has looked at someone's tips over on Reefcap. It'll be interesting to see what he picks.

Hi Doc,

Is the result to be calculated just on capital growth over the 12 months, or does it include dividends? What about franking credits?

Could you ever have imagined that your apparently simple fun suggestion could become so complicated??!!

It's a great idea and gives those of us who are buy and hold investors a chance to possibly participate. Thanks for the idea.

Julia

 

[doctorj]

I'll just keep my mouth shut next time

 

[Dan_]

Here's a few wild guesses,

MOS, WEZ, LSG, CEY, RHT.....and i'll find another

Add CSL thanks

All guesses at best

 

[tech/a]

I notice Nick has looked at someone's tips over on Reefcap. It'll be interesting to see what he picks.

Doubt that he would make a selection.He was making an observation.
Its not what you'd do in realtime investing.
If a stop was hit or an exit taken out you wouldnt be still holding the majority in 12 mths.
To maximise your return you'd have to be able to atleast sell a position that turns against you and exit a position that has made profit and turns against you,according to a proven trading methodolgy.

Unfortunately buy and hope is the way of most traders and while the competition maybe fun it certaintly isnt fostering sound trading/investment
habits.

 

[brisvegas]

Doubt that he would make a selection.He was making an observation.
Its not what you'd do in realtime investing.
If a stop was hit or an exit taken out you wouldnt be still holding the majority in 12 mths.
To maximise your return you'd have to be able to atleast sell a position that turns against you and exit a position that has made profit and turns against you,according to a proven trading methodolgy.

Unfortunately buy and hope is the way of most traders and while the competition maybe fun it certaintly isnt fostering sound trading/investment
habits.

tech is dead right here and just to clarify there is near enough to no chance id hold the stocks i have selected for a whole year . i would use stop losses and an exit strategy . i spent approximately 10 minutes selecting that list of stocks and picked ones that i had prior knowledge about as i are or have traded them previously . HDR is the one im likely to hold the longest fwiw . i selected resource stocks as i firmly believe that is a sector that will continue to perform for a couple years yet but to stay firmly ahead in this game your thinking needs to be dynamic . so my opinion could change if circumstances on the world stage change . in reality if i was to do a portfolio like this i would certainly diversify it with a few sectors involved and a couple decent dividend yielders in there . pity we arent doing the trading thing as it would have served more of a useful purpose . maybe if a trading type scenario was done where you trade only 1 stock . it would be easier to do and for the sake of the exersize acheive the same objective . anyway have a happy near year all . see you in a year

.......................... pete

 

[Nick Radge]

My point elsewhere was the psychology behind the first selection becuase I think 4 of the stocks were -60% or more over the last 12-months. The thinking behind that selection probably had more to do with the individuals mindset.

I guess if I had to vote, then this would be them:

MND, JBM, WTP, SDG, OMP. MXI

There is a pattern to those. See if you can't figure it out

Good luck though!

Nick

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

 

[tech/a]

JBM
MRL
DOW
KZL
ETR
PNO

Scientifically technically selected using the RisingSun Monthly "Bang for Buck"
combination longterm method which will be disclosed upon winning the comp

 

[RichKid]

OK, I'll pick:

OST, BMX, SGX, WOW, SEK, WPL

Okay, that'll do for now, I expect all to pull back a bit or significantly in the next few months before getting on with it, I haven't done any real research into these picks, just ones I'm watching or holding.

Also, if people pick an identical portfolio I suggest that if they win then the winner should be the one who submitted his picks first.

 

[Stan 101]

hi, this looks like fun, I'm going to go with 5 real speccies..and a hmmms.
ANM, DLS, MRX, PEP, WEB, OST


All the best for the new year.

 

[brerwallabi]

OK I'll take the following
AUZ
CMX
SBS
IGR
PEM
KZL
At the momment I hold three but might not neccessarily be holding them at the end of January even. I possibly might trade in and out of these a few times during the year. To hold something for 12 months is a longtime and when a stock may drop 20% or more and then come back and retrace again and comeback again, you get my point Doc I don't want to be holding when its down 20%. See how I go with these. You could probably out do me by year end with your picks, being an "investor" but I could have more money in the bank through frequent trades.
Anyway each to their own and good luck.
PS maybe I should have picked 6 bluechips

 

[dutchie]

G'day Doc,

Interesting little exercise.

Each person could perhaps trade their selections on their own in the way they would normally (buy/sell) and compare to holding for one year (trading costs would have to be taken into account). At end of year report comparisons to forum.

My selections are: BHP, CRS, CSL, PEP, WPL, ZFX.

Good luck everyone.

 

[RichKid]

hi, this looks like fun, I'm going to go with 5 real speccies..and a hmmms.
ANM, DLS, MRX, PEP, WEB, OST, VCR


All the best for the new year.

That's seven you've got there, which would you like to drop?

 

[tech/a]

G'day Doc,

Interesting little exercise.

Each person could perhaps trade their selections on their own in the way they would normally (buy/sell) and compare to holding for one year (trading costs would have to be taken into account). At end of year report comparisons to forum.

My selections are: BHP, CRS, CSL, PEP, WPL, ZFX.

Good luck everyone.

Was going to do that.
I still have the october stock picks in various portfolios and keeping it up dated.

 

[brerwallabi]

Its a pity a sponser could not come forward and give us a signon amd access to watchlists that they could set up for us free of charge on their websites, I am sure it would then attract more entrants and would work postively for the sponsers. Its one for Joe I think.

 

[pete152]

Well I will have a shot with BOQ, BHP, ALZ, BBI and of course a roughy to bring the odds up OCO
(Do not laugh at OCO the pooor thing!!)
Happy New Year to all
Cheers,
Peter

 

[Stan 101]

That's seven you've got there, which would you like to drop?

sorry rich kid... Really my accounting records are great .

I'll drop vcr