ASX Sharemarket Game 2017: 3rd August - 15th November

[Coronasix]

I can understand now that there is a lot more to the stock market than just watching the ups and downs of graphs and charts. Researching companies and their day to day activities gives some insight that may help to pick the times to invest and sell. I know that you can drill down into each company for details but is there some way to view all the companies and their performance in one broad view?

Thanks for your help Peter2, your answers have been helpful to me and I appreciate the time you take to answer even the simplest question.

Pete

 

[OmegaTrader]

There's no point me playing the game as I'd rather do it for real and I'd only registered to get access to the game functionality in order to assist others. I had hoped to use this thread to help others starting their trading journey. However, no-one has (asked).

NEC: (Trend Continuation) Recent BO-NH and a lower priced stock in the ASX200.
Bought 1.45, iSL 1.40.
BAP: (Pull-back) Recent BO-SRL shallow correction so far. Bought 5.60, iSL 5.50
TGR: (Reversal) Recent BO-10d high and plenty of room to go higher. Same sector companies, CSS and HUO have also started to go up. Bought 3.88, iSL 3.80
ORE: (Pull-back) Looks like a completed classic EW abc corrective move. Price is in narrow range and I've bought anticipating a BO. Bought 3.22, iSL 3.10.

So far only one of them has gone higher (NEC).
View attachment 72177

Thanks for that peter. Any analysis you want to put up is appreciated.

Also thanks for coranasix for joining league.

Ok ... almost got my spreadsheet done for the 205 stock/etf universe.

I use asxiq.com for the the stats and asx for those not covered, still some gaps in the sheet though.

I could manually do it but my head would prob explode to calculate for all of those stocks, even if i knew how to write a program it would take a while also.

Not all stocks are covered and the stats are also delayed. So it is just to get a view. I have monthly and yearly std for each stock and also monthly and yearly change for each stock.

Also I want to enter the difference between bid and ask price relative to share price. Preferably when it is trading live.

On this point the asx game does not have a depth of market display.

Which would explain prices alot more, instead of just putting in an order and waiting to get filled.



Finally I am going to visually inspect each stock chart. Max view to get the whole story, but mostly the 1-3 month charts. Investing.com free charts seemed ok to explore with.

I suppose some would disagree with my opinion to go for volatility and the real question is would you take those risks in real life. In reality no. But volatility is important and if there is a massive loss on the game then this would be a lesson to people that you shouldn't treat stocks like gambling and gamble your financial future away .Losing say $20,00+ is a massive hit to lose for most people.

Also if taking positions it is really intuitive to take smaller positions in more volatile assets.

Ie who would really put all of their wealth in a small cap stock? etc

So looking at volatility does not really hurt you either.

Hopefully by tomorrow will put some stock picks up that meet my volatility and simple TA criteria and have some small trial trades. If anyone wants to chime in on the merits of the picks that would be good.


cheers

 

[OmegaTrader]

Has the loophole been fixed? Check the previous games on this forum where it is noted that in the game you could buy and sell without having to queue. When your number of shares were traded on the real market then your order was filled. Players could do multiple trades across the spread all day. Check 2014 thread on this forum.

Alright so I have been playing around with the orders today.
To see if it really is that easy to just make the market and sit on the bid ask spread.

MYR, Myer was sitting at 0.735 bid 0.74 ask for most of the day.

A high spread and low share price.

This was my choice to make market because spread was about 0.68% (.05/.735). IE buy at 0.735 and sell at 0.74.

Now most of the 205 stock/etfs in the universe do not even have enough spread to cover the commission for both buying and selling which is .2+.2= .4%

So firstly there is the commission which is .2% each way or $20 for orders under 10,000.

This puts you in a hard place. You need a spread of at least .4% and also have to trade with at least $10,000 out of your $50,000 capital to cover commissions. This also does not take into account the chance that the price could blow out either way.


Talk about picking up pennies in front of steam rollers

So here is the tick chart from Myer today that I have constructed from the course of sales.
Except for omitting the opening two trades which were distorted.



So it looks like a perfect day for market making the bid ask spread.

No major announcements or major moves, sideways all day. Looks easy.







I buy at the grey line and sell at the orange line.



aha but I actually need volume and I am sitting on $10,000 order.

no worries I am sitting on almost 14,000 odd shares should be enough for seeing that in the game I get to jump ahead of the queue.






aha but it gets even more complicated.

My lunch is getting cut into by asx centre-point orders. Other participants can put in orders that don't even appear on my depth of market??? What???
Yep and the orders are filled at the mid point of the bid ask spread.

If you draws some lines on the graph it begins to make much more sense.



See how may times it hit the yellow point and bounced back. That is the centre point halving the spread.

So in actual fact the spread of the mid point would be half of the full spread which is about 0.34%.

Not even enough to cover my commission and this is on one of the, if not highest spread stocks in the 205 universe.

For alot of the day I was sitting there like a lame duck, getting filled in small bits and pieces.Whilst also getting cut out fills by centre-point orders

In the end though strategy payed off. I made a grand total of $27.90


ahahah

In summary

1) It is not easy to just sit on the bid ask spread.There is still risk. You would have to know when to trade it to not get blown out by big moves. The spread is very thin especially after commissions.


2)It takes time, you have to sit there all day, ideally also making market in at least 5 stocks.
Pull the orders at end of day, at upcoming announcements, at big spikes, especially at the end of the week to avoid gaps.

3) It is not in the spirit of the game. The game is to learn about trading/investing, not market making by jumping the queue. But knowing what doesn't work is a good way of learning.

4) It may not be the best strategy to use to win the game. I think I was lucky today but any hit would wipe out the small gains made.

But yes it is an advantage to be at the front of the queue.

Still working on my longer term picks.

Cheers

 

[OmegaTrader]

My first 'actual' decision.

The sad truth is that I bought it because I had itchy fingers. I hope this is a lesson. In a safer environment. Filled at $16.04

amc - amcor.

Anyone can see it has been in an uptrend over the long term






The question is, will it keep going and did I get in at a good price?

I am finding it abit hard from the demo asx game and free charts are usually delayed.

zooming in , a basic glance






Struggled at 16.5 level

zooming in again



Zooming in again

 

[OmegaTrader]

One more zoom-zoom





Interesting to see how the gap at 15.9 was filled. Imaginary pattern most prob.




Finally the tick chart from course of sales
Larger in house trades represent spies in volume, these were between the brokers not traded on the market.

I don't know if that means anything.


Takeaways

1) Commission is a big impediment in share trading in the shorter term, especially if the shares are not that volatile.

2) I think my itchy fingers has cost the $$$.

3) I now have overnight gapping risk.

Although AMC is only around 1% market cap of the asx200-market. https://www.asx200list.com/

According to http://asxiq.com/detail/ASXIQ/Amcor-Limited/ it has around a .4 to .5 correlation to the market.



If it keeps going up short term, 16.5 looks like a price the market will look at as resistance.



Heiken ashi chart short term looks ominous





see how it all goes.

 

[OmegaTrader]

Still working out how to use the game interface.

You are only allowed to have one order in. So I had a choice of a stop or taking a profit.

A bit hard if you are not in front of the computer, as I was not around the first hour or two of opening.










I chose to put in a limit order at $16.16 level instead of a stop as only one order could be placed at once. Was worried that a stop could be hit with opening spike.







AMC gapped opening up at $16.37 and I was filled at $16.37.

Lucky that the overall market opened up, which I think caused it.

I feel quite exposed having $10,00 invested out of $50,000 odd portfolio.

But then the benefit of watching everything so closely is that you can get out asap to cut some losses.



Otherwise I would just pick 4 or so volatile stocks and sit there and let them ride.

What would I really learn from that? That trading doesn't work because of lack of edge or high commissions. But having a sample size of 4 trades doesn't really mean much either.

The top players are around the $55,000 mark already. The sit and ride volatile strategy seems to be working for them so far. I wonder how much of that is just volatility and luck.

My Total cash is now $50,233.96, alot to make up...

Curiously important announcements came out today, full year results and future dividend distribution.

You can't even see anything on the chart or price movement that would let you know that.

Could have easily gone wrong on my end. Not that I could have done anything being stuck in the trade until opening.

-Takeaway check for future announcemnts



cheers

 

[OmegaTrader]

Three more decisions today.


Cwy In at $1.39 out at $1.405.
Ideally in hindsight should have held on but I could not sit there and watch so set the limit to the recent high on the 5 min chart

NEC in at $1.49, still holding at $1.5 not much in it

NSR



In at $1.545 currently $1.525. Not very happy about this one. See how it goes

Total portfolio not that much difference
Portfolio value: $50,232.37