ASX Momentum Trade Book - Part 2
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Trading update: New trade.
JBH: Bought at 25.50, iSL at 24.00. Initial target near 30.00.
It's another reversal setup and I'm noticing quite a few of these lately. It's hard to ignore temptation when the RR is so attractive. These stocks have performed worse than the index and there's no guarantees that they'll come back into favour. We must not overlook those stocks that are in demand and making new highs.
JBH: Bought at 25.50, iSL at 24.00. Initial target near 30.00.
It's another reversal setup and I'm noticing quite a few of these lately. It's hard to ignore temptation when the RR is so attractive. These stocks have performed worse than the index and there's no guarantees that they'll come back into favour. We must not overlook those stocks that are in demand and making new highs.
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Hi Peter...I have been lurking but just dropped in to tell you I am really enjoying the thread. Re BLD as Nick Radge advises...next 100 trades
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That news release for ADA came as a surprise to me. Of course I was filled at the low of the day for a 3R loss.
I've always had my stop in the market, figuring that if price trades at my stop I want out, rather than waiting and hoping it comes back up. This is an example of the worst possible outcome from doing that.
It's also worth noting that a backtest of this trade would show me filled at open. But the low of the day was hit at 1min 18sec after the open and that's where IG filled my conditional order.
To think I picked this over CSR...
I've always had my stop in the market, figuring that if price trades at my stop I want out, rather than waiting and hoping it comes back up. This is an example of the worst possible outcome from doing that.
It's also worth noting that a backtest of this trade would show me filled at open. But the low of the day was hit at 1min 18sec after the open and that's where IG filled my conditional order.
To think I picked this over CSR...
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@hallph Glad you're enjoying the thread. I hope it's helping you get your TP established.
CTX: Interesting chart. In the context of the TP in this thread, no. This thread's TP is all about trading short term momentum swings. I don't see a low risk setup in the CTX chart at this time.
However, I did say the chart is interesting and I'm going to post my comments in the CTX thread. Thanks for the suggestion.
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@mikeroxoz Thanks for your compliment also. I think Nick's saying is next 1000 trades (he's partially automated).
Staying in a good trade is probably more successful than finding another, however it's not easier. My orders were in the market and that's what can happen when trading for real. If you read a trading blog without seeing any awkward moments, then you'll know they're not trading for real.
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@Lone Wolf You are not alone. I had no idea about the report either. I was thinking about posting the ADA chart as an example of how a break-out can turn nasty. This is a classic one.
Wow, that was a tight SL. Price could have easily come back and tested the BO level (2.50) and stopped you out, before blasting higher. I always allow price to fall 62% of the up swing.
Let me state that there's nothing wrong with a tight SL like yours. You're going to get big R winners and occasionally big R losers like today. Your money management must allow for this to happen.
Now you know why I don't have my exit stops in the market unless the market is thick. The EOD price closed about where my initial SL would have been placed. I'll suffer an unexpected -1R loss anytime. Keep an eye on the chart if you can. Today's high close is very bullish.
CTX: Interesting chart. In the context of the TP in this thread, no. This thread's TP is all about trading short term momentum swings. I don't see a low risk setup in the CTX chart at this time.
However, I did say the chart is interesting and I'm going to post my comments in the CTX thread. Thanks for the suggestion.
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@mikeroxoz Thanks for your compliment also. I think Nick's saying is next 1000 trades (he's partially automated).
Staying in a good trade is probably more successful than finding another, however it's not easier. My orders were in the market and that's what can happen when trading for real. If you read a trading blog without seeing any awkward moments, then you'll know they're not trading for real.
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@Lone Wolf You are not alone. I had no idea about the report either. I was thinking about posting the ADA chart as an example of how a break-out can turn nasty. This is a classic one.
Wow, that was a tight SL. Price could have easily come back and tested the BO level (2.50) and stopped you out, before blasting higher. I always allow price to fall 62% of the up swing.
Let me state that there's nothing wrong with a tight SL like yours. You're going to get big R winners and occasionally big R losers like today. Your money management must allow for this to happen.
Now you know why I don't have my exit stops in the market unless the market is thick. The EOD price closed about where my initial SL would have been placed. I'll suffer an unexpected -1R loss anytime. Keep an eye on the chart if you can. Today's high close is very bullish.
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On the stop position. I agree. The initial stop was just below the last swing low, about where price is now. I moved the stop last night to just below the breakout bar due to concerns that we've seen the market top. The thought being that if it stops me out and turns around I could always look to get back on. However, there had been nothing alarming about the price action up to yesterday, so the stop was overly aggressive.
I've only just resumed short term trading in earnest last week. I'm only trading with a fraction of my eventual account while I iron out the kinks and make mistakes. Which is fortunate because I learned this lesson on the cheap.
I will be watching ADA out of interest but I won't get back on. It made the low within the opening minutes and got bought up for the rest of the day to close on its high. A sign of strength.
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Bella from SMB likes to say "Trading isnt about extracting every cent of PnL from the trade. It's about doing the right thing".
skc
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@Lone Wolf You are not alone. I had no idea about the report either. I was thinking about posting the ADA chart as an example of how a break-out can turn nasty. This is a classic one.
Wow, that was a tight SL. Price could have easily come back and tested the BO level (2.50) and stopped you out, before blasting higher. I always allow price to fall 62% of the up swing.
Let me state that there's nothing wrong with a tight SL like yours. You're going to get big R winners and occasionally big R losers like today. Your money management must allow for this to happen.[/QUOTE]
Thank goodness that wasn't the initial stop. Had LoneWolf sized the position on a 5c stop as his risk, this would have been a 12R loss...
Wow, that was a tight SL. Price could have easily come back and tested the BO level (2.50) and stopped you out, before blasting higher. I always allow price to fall 62% of the up swing.
Let me state that there's nothing wrong with a tight SL like yours. You're going to get big R winners and occasionally big R losers like today. Your money management must allow for this to happen.[/QUOTE]
Thank goodness that wasn't the initial stop. Had LoneWolf sized the position on a 5c stop as his risk, this would have been a 12R loss...
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EOW 114 update: ASX Momentum Portfolio +62.6% ( 79% invested in 4 trades)
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +9.7% (past 114 wks)
This weeks sells: API(+2.1R), BAL (+2.2R), BLD (+1.7R), ORI-cfd (+0.6R)
This weeks buys: JHC, JBH
The week ended with three down days as the materials sector was thumped and banks were sold off. The index fell 1.5% this week. Meanwhile our portfolio had another great week (+5%) as we closed our winning trades (+6.6R).
Remember yesterday? I mentioned that if we'd done nothing we'd be better off. One day later, we would be worse off if we'd done nothing. That's the fine line we're walking as short term traders. One day really matters, sometimes. Only a real-time trading blog can emphasise this point.
Another equity high, but so what. I'm so glad that we did the right thing at the right time. That's the most satisfying aspect. Keep doing the right thing and another equity high is not far away.
Thanks @VSntchr for the the additional reinforcement from "Bella".
Outlook: Our market filter (WU DD) changes slightly to cautiously bullish. This is our indicator to reduce heat by selling losers and raising exit triggers. On this occasion we don't have to do anything as we are ahead of the market reversal. We have no losers (yeah) and took profits at above average results. Our current open trades are new and the open heat level is low. We've already raised a few exit stops.
Benchmark index: SPAX2F15 (Incl. divs and f credits) +9.7% (past 114 wks)
This weeks sells: API(+2.1R), BAL (+2.2R), BLD (+1.7R), ORI-cfd (+0.6R)
This weeks buys: JHC, JBH
The week ended with three down days as the materials sector was thumped and banks were sold off. The index fell 1.5% this week. Meanwhile our portfolio had another great week (+5%) as we closed our winning trades (+6.6R).
Remember yesterday? I mentioned that if we'd done nothing we'd be better off. One day later, we would be worse off if we'd done nothing. That's the fine line we're walking as short term traders. One day really matters, sometimes. Only a real-time trading blog can emphasise this point.
Another equity high, but so what. I'm so glad that we did the right thing at the right time. That's the most satisfying aspect. Keep doing the right thing and another equity high is not far away.
Thanks @VSntchr for the the additional reinforcement from "Bella".
Outlook: Our market filter (WU DD) changes slightly to cautiously bullish. This is our indicator to reduce heat by selling losers and raising exit triggers. On this occasion we don't have to do anything as we are ahead of the market reversal. We have no losers (yeah) and took profits at above average results. Our current open trades are new and the open heat level is low. We've already raised a few exit stops.
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Absolutely. Your loss isn't limited to your stop. A limit to the maximum % invested in any one stock is important. And of course, basing the risk calc on a reasonable range of movement.
Although in this case, had I set my risk to 5c, I'd have been out with a 2R profit before the fall.
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Just absolutely dominating Peter - very impressive
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Trading update: New trade
CDD: Bought today at 1.38, iSL 1.28. Trading back at 1.30 would be an early warning.
This chart came up in a 10d BO scan on Friday and there seems to be a little follow up demand today (so far). It's too early in the day to confirm the BO (close above). The 1.50 level will provide bigger resistance than the old high (1.44). The 1.50 level will provide a minimum RR.
[Disclosure: I'm holding this one from earlier BO's. I can't buy anymore. I'm maxed out.]
I've included the weekly chart to show the bullish bars that got me into this trend. The first one was an ORB. The second, a bullish long tailed doji.
CDD: Bought today at 1.38, iSL 1.28. Trading back at 1.30 would be an early warning.
This chart came up in a 10d BO scan on Friday and there seems to be a little follow up demand today (so far). It's too early in the day to confirm the BO (close above). The 1.50 level will provide bigger resistance than the old high (1.44). The 1.50 level will provide a minimum RR.
[Disclosure: I'm holding this one from earlier BO's. I can't buy anymore. I'm maxed out.]
I've included the weekly chart to show the bullish bars that got me into this trend. The first one was an ORB. The second, a bullish long tailed doji.
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Just "shooting the breeze". I thought about trading this setup as it looks good (buy 0.39, iSL 0.35). I didn't, as there are too many shares about. I don't like trading specs that have issued over 1 billion shares. EWC has 1.734 billion. They're OK for a quick trade when the day traders "pump" them, but we have to sell them before they get "dumped".
Have you considered a rule/guideline like this for your TP?
(I have to thank Frank Watkins for this one.)
Have you considered a rule/guideline like this for your TP?
(I have to thank Frank Watkins for this one.)
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Thanks for the tip. It's not something I've ever considered previously.
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Trading update: A quick losing trade.
JBH: Sold this afternoon at 24.10 to realise the loss (-0.9R). Price traded below our exit then rallied but this rally died and we sold. We didn't sell after yesterday's down day as price close off the low indicating some demand. However today's selling put paid to that hope.
I notice that HVN is also having a down day. Retailers are still unwanted, it seems.
JBH: Sold this afternoon at 24.10 to realise the loss (-0.9R). Price traded below our exit then rallied but this rally died and we sold. We didn't sell after yesterday's down day as price close off the low indicating some demand. However today's selling put paid to that hope.
I notice that HVN is also having a down day. Retailers are still unwanted, it seems.
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Our other trades are doing much better.
CIM is above our T1 and we're letting it get to T2.
CDD is near it's initial target (1.50) and we've sold some of our parcel at T1. MD is a bit thin up here and it may take another day to sell all. As I type this I see we've sold the rest. Ka ching! +1R in 24hrs. This will offset the JBH loss and we'll let CIM get more.
ps: The CDD trade was a bit lucky. I was able to make this trade as I noticed the subtle change in demand quickly enough to get the minimum RR before the 1.50 level.
CIM is above our T1 and we're letting it get to T2.
CDD is near it's initial target (1.50) and we've sold some of our parcel at T1. MD is a bit thin up here and it may take another day to sell all. As I type this I see we've sold the rest. Ka ching! +1R in 24hrs. This will offset the JBH loss and we'll let CIM get more.
ps: The CDD trade was a bit lucky. I was able to make this trade as I noticed the subtle change in demand quickly enough to get the minimum RR before the 1.50 level.
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Trading update: I've got a little post it note on the monitor telling me we need +21R with 42 wks left. let's get on with it. New trade.
BAL: Bought today at 6.00, iSL at 5.50.
I was prepared to buy this if it traded back at 6.10 to confirm the demand. Buying at a lower value is a small concern due to indication of supply above 6.00. I'm assuming the traders are looking at other sectors today thanks to the overnight budget. The iSL is a little larger as price can become volatile.
If price doesn't continue higher quickly, we'll exit and wait for the proper BO entry.
BAL: Bought today at 6.00, iSL at 5.50.
I was prepared to buy this if it traded back at 6.10 to confirm the demand. Buying at a lower value is a small concern due to indication of supply above 6.00. I'm assuming the traders are looking at other sectors today thanks to the overnight budget. The iSL is a little larger as price can become volatile.
If price doesn't continue higher quickly, we'll exit and wait for the proper BO entry.
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Trading update: New trade
HSN: Bought today's BO-NH at 3.62, iSL at 3.48.
We must be aware that the chart shows price is in a corrective swing up, after an impulsive swing down. If price fails to continue higher we'll exit quickly.
HSN: Bought today's BO-NH at 3.62, iSL at 3.48.
We must be aware that the chart shows price is in a corrective swing up, after an impulsive swing down. If price fails to continue higher we'll exit quickly.
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Trading update: New trade
ORE: Bought today's BO-NH at 3.52, iSL at 3.20.
Re-entering this stock that we've got in our weekly portfolio. ORE remains on the top of the short list, so any move up could be quick.
ORE: Bought today's BO-NH at 3.52, iSL at 3.20.
Re-entering this stock that we've got in our weekly portfolio. ORE remains on the top of the short list, so any move up could be quick.
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Today's flurry of activity sees our portfolio 110% invested and we've got 5K left if we see a setup that's too tempting. We're risking (downside exposure) 4% in total across the six open trades.
CIM: TS raised to +2R level and we've placed a limit sell order itm at 40.90 (T3) for tomorrow.
Things are looking good as the market (particularly the industrials - XNJ) continues higher. This portfolio avoided the drop in CSR but our weekly portfolio takes the hit.
CIM: TS raised to +2R level and we've placed a limit sell order itm at 40.90 (T3) for tomorrow.
Things are looking good as the market (particularly the industrials - XNJ) continues higher. This portfolio avoided the drop in CSR but our weekly portfolio takes the hit.
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