This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

AOE - Arrow Energy

Jump to new
Jimminy said:
A syngas plant won't produce ULP - only diesel sorry.
Click to expand...

Are you sure,.

In the federal government energy paper they mention converting natural gas to ulp, I also thought I had seen a wiki article about it, but I coud be wrong
 
AOE in a trading halt until Tuesday pending an announcement. Must be a big announcement to need until tuesday to get out the details. Should be good news for us.
 
nioka said:
AOE in a trading halt until Tuesday pending an announcement. Must be a big announcement to need until tuesday to get out the details. Should be good news for us.
Click to expand...

With all that's happening on the CSM scene!
But isn't two days the standard ( minimum? ) for a trading halt?

 
oldblue said:
But isn't two days the standard ( minimum? ) for a trading halt?
Click to expand...
Standard trading halt - the company has 3 days (until Tuesday) to make their announcement or else the share goes into suspension. It's pretty unusual to take all 3 days to make the announcement - usually it's the same day or the next.
 
is it New Hope Coal?....I have a swag of shares in them and they are running.

NHC have a 19.9% stake.

They are up 11% today.

Stay tuned.
 
yep have to agree Jimminy noticed high volume of over 2m shares traded today which is not normal for NHC they have a habit of taking profits and giving shareholders a capital return UNLESS they are increasing their holding I was under the impression their holding is 17.8% but I stand to be corrected

cheers laurie
 
:
laurie said:
they have a habit of taking profits and giving shareholders a capital return UNLESS they are increasing their holding I was under the impression their holding is 17.8% but I stand to be corrected
Click to expand...

Yes, you are correct. 17.8% it is. Dilution.

The more I have looked at it over the weekend, it will be a great deal for a stake in the LNG plant imo as Arrow said "it was in the final stages of selling down its CSG interest".

A few media articles have stated that Royal Dutch Shell is thought to be interested in partnering with it on the building of an LNG plant. I'm wondering whether it is something to do with the Asian interests though? But more likely LNG by the statement.

The Petronas/STO deal for a 40 per cent stake in its Gladstone LNG project implied a value of $3.93 a gigajoule for 2P (possible and probable) reserves and $1.32 for 3P (possible, probable and proved) reserves. No wonder Origin said no thanks to BG.

So it all looks good - and no doubt the price will be equal to if not better than Santos received.

But to have a partner in Royal Dutch Shell is huge imo - Arkdale Pty Ltd (New Hope Corp) just hit paydirt with their 17.8% stake. There now has to be a greater takeover premium placed on their stake in AOE and this is now being reflected in the NHC valuation - let alone their coal growth prospects.
 
A few facts on AOE from a few broker reports for those interested


Apart from advancing its international JVs, AOE is evaluating construction of a 400km gas pipeline to Gladstone. An investment decision on a 1.3 mtpy LNG plant with LNG International at Gladstone is scheduled for late 2008. It has a JV with ERM Power to evaluate a 450MW gas-fired power station in the Surat, with associated gas field developments and reserve expansions.

Arrow Energy has a debt facility for A$70m secured against its interest in the
Moranbah to Townsville gas pipeline, which gives AOE A$262m in free net cash, placing it in a sound position to develop its Australian gas fields to support development of its proposed LNG plant at Gladstone.

Private energy consultancy LNG International has appointed Worley Parsons and Arup to undertake Front End Engineering Design for a 1.3 million tonne per year LNG plant at Gladstone, with the capacity to add a second LNG train and take capacity to 2.6 mtpy. Arrow Energy has agreed to supply up to 60 PJ of gas per year initially, with an option to move to 156 PJ per year. Under the terms of this agreement, Arrow is responsible for the gas field development and pipeline for delivery to the LNG plant. The current model anticipates construction of the Central Queensland Gas Pipeline from Moranbah to Gladstone, which is approved and permitted.

Arrow has recently acquired a 10% equity interest in LNG International, and has the right to acquire a 20% interest in the proposed Gladstone LNG plant, storage and load-out facilities at cost. We assume that the plant cost excludes upstream and pipeline costs. LNG International anticipates vending a 20% interest to a selected LNG buyer. The FID is scheduled for late 2008, with first cargoes in 2012.
 
If you read the announcement on page 2 it states a sell down of its CSM assets that's a strange comment because if it was a JV it would have stated that

cheers laurie
 
Well it is a JV with Shell. No sell down here. If they did that their share price would have been smashed. Smart move and one of many that will eventuate in this sector.

Just own and hold for a while yet anything with CSG assets imo.

Very interesting article on saturday by one writer who suggested that everyone should sell and run as the whole CSG sector is a bubble about to burst. At the time i wondered whether he hadn't had an opportunity to buy in yet.

Deserves to be smacked on the wrist. Link below. Be very surprised if he is correct and based on this mornings market moves he is wrong for now at least. A lot of other articles are a direct opposite to his position within his own organisation let alone the rest of the marketplace

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23785704-5005200,00.html
 
Great news, with the shell deal.

It's not overly different t the QGC/BG deal,

this deal will pretty much take over proof Arrow I expect to see some fantastic strengh from Arrow now, puts in back in the game with QGC now.

As for CSG beng a bubble,... we have not even begunto see the strength of natural gas yet, as oil peaks natural gas consumption will go through the roof, why else are the oil majors chasing gas reserves.
 
Yes, a partner like Shell should be good for AOE, provided they are able to hold their own with that particular giant!
Not too sure though that it's a good thing from shareholders' point of view to have the company " takeover proofed"?
 
Being take over proofed does not stop fund managers taking stakes; and this will now IMO look sufficiently attactive to fund managers to place it within their investing guidelines. If so, then it is (almost but not quite) a first for an essentially UGC based investment decision and should result in excellent share price inflation for AOE and the sector.

It touched $4.110 today, with much of the market still to read the news (it will, I suspect warrant a mention in the major Au papers, and of course some international oil / gas sites - it is alread on upstream online - see link.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080602/pdf/319ffbls154tx9.pdf

I am not convinced we are in a bubble; the comparisons to the sector 2 years ago were when oil was at US$40bbl and many resources were non-JORC compliant. Now even modest analysts have oil at a 2 year futures price of US$100 BBl or greater and of course AOE has outstanding acreage; and a process that is now cost effective and a credible international partner. Outstanding really for a 2.5 bil company (small cheese internationally; but might now attact the UK market).

I disclose holdings.
 
The reaction to this announcement on AOE share price to me looks disappointing IMHO $4.10+ should have been able to be sustained as a floor price for further increases just look at QGC & NHC both have fallen on the news so go figure this market

cheers laurie
 
The difficulty for QGC and NHC is that there is such a small pool of internationals that are willing to invest; this really means that those two companies now have reduced chances of achieving such a partnership, at least in the short term.

Re the price, I agree. essentially te value is 30% of many licences for 700 mil ,so that places a value on AOE of 2.33 bil (its current market cap as it happens) BUT the sale does not include, eg the Indian licences nor place a value on the strategic partnership.

This is a very blunt analysis, and IMO clearly a greater price is warranted. The reality is if AOE rerates then the next step (over time) is really to a Origin size.

I note the general market is down, pulled that way by banks, so would expect a signficant increase when that negative influence goes (as well as short term and IMO short sighted profit takers, who could be expected for a day or two), especially given the international coverage the AOE Shell deal has - already in paper in US / France / UK / NZ / AU (of course!). International investors could jump on board in a matter of days...
 
Re: AOE - Arrow Energy :$5.45 Target

See Citi target (aiming for 40% increase from todays closing price )

Arrow Energy (AOE) has a maintained Buy High Risk Recommendation and a $5.45 share price target from Australian stockmarket analysts from Citi.

"Arrow Energy Limited (AOE): Arrow LNG - Go Well Go Shell!

Shell Partners Arrow with its Gladstone LNG Project ”” Arrow achieves a $776M payment from Shell for 30% equity in all of its SE Qld csm assets and a 10% equity stake in their International operations. This has materially lifted our target price from $3.41 to $5.45/share. We maintain our Buy High Risk Recommendation."

I disclose holdings.
 
I feel like such an idiot selling it at 2.70 seeing where it is now. I hope it drops a little so I can reenter again but that looks unlikely.
 
Vampire said:
I feel like such an idiot selling it at 2.70 seeing where it is now. I hope it drops a little so I can reenter again but that looks unlikely.
Click to expand...

You can't be right all the time,....lol.

The good thing about the sharemarket is there will always be opportunities come up, So don't dwell on the one that got away.

I think that under $4 is a bargin for AOE now that it has shell on board, Compared to the likes of QGC arrows P/E ratio is very small.

By the between now and when they finally get the LNG plant going there will be alot of ups and downs so I will keep adding to my CSGers when ever there is a good opportunity, I am such an energy bull and have such good faith that LNG is going to be the next big fuel source to replace dwindiling oil that I am keeping about 30% of my portfoilio in AOE, QGC and other energy stocks
 
Hi guys i think we cant go wrong with these Gas stocks for some time yet
Also The Jap Govt wants in and they consume around 39% of world export Lng


Re:
According to Newport-based Roger Corrie of ABN Amro Morgans, it makes sense for the groups to consolidate

See my link on ESG forum
re mergers on csg players

Cheers

p.s I own AOE, QGC, ESG
 
For those who have been watching the notice come through that Director Stephen Bizzell has a "margin loan" with Chimaera Capital (Primebroker), you might be pleased to hear they have all been settled.

A snippet in today's CM advises that Bizzells 2.39 million shares have been sold for prices as low as $2.86.

We should expect a notice to the ASX soon.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

2025 Full Year Stock Tipping Competiton
7 8 9
Replies
177
Views
12K
mullokintyre
Retirement-Semi Retirement, (Tech/a personal study) implementation and discussion
2 3
Replies
45
Views
4K
tech/a
August 2024 DDD
2 3 4
Replies
75
Views
19K
ducati916
Trump Rumoured to Establish U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
Replies
2
Views
1K
moXJO
M
V
Selling stock vs. tax
Replies
14
Views
1K
So_Cynical
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...