AOE - Arrow Energy

[agro]

hi

do not follow the energy sector as much but had been given this as a tip from a good friend of mine,

they mentioned that on thursday one director bought 1.5m shares on market and that post-auction friday there was some fairly massive buyers..

at one stage the iap was up to 3.60?

ne1 clarify this for me

 

[jman2007]

hi

do not follow the energy sector as much but had been given this as a tip from a good friend of mine,

they mentioned that on thursday one director bought 1.5m shares on market and that post-auction friday there was some fairly massive buyers..

at one stage the iap was up to 3.60?

ne1 clarify this for me

Not sure what you mean by iap,

But up 12% Friday to $3.00, change of Directors interest notice also released, as another 500K ordinary shares were acquired. Fairly heavy trading volumes 18th-19th. Haven't looked at the current orders however.

jman

 

[Glen48]

Any one beside me think this one may be on the way up?
My crystal ball won't show Green any more has had to much Red burnt into it.

 

[chops_a_must]

Any one beside me think this one may be on the way up?
My crystal ball won't show Green any more has had to much Red burnt into it.

This share represents about 25% of my capital and is all free carried.

It's potential now as the largest pure play CSMer on the exchange is now massive.

Shell has 30% of it. Wont have any problems with funding new projects.

I will be disappointed if it doesn't make we quite well off one day.

Really has some astounding potential, especially as QGC gets priced the way it has been with a crummy deal...

 

[Sean K]

Along with a few others has hit some long term support.

Maybe a long term opp around here.


Arrow Energy strikes development deal with China
Susan Murdoch | November 24, 2008
Article from: Dow Jones Newswires

ARROW Energy has signed an agreement with China's Bin Chang Mining to develop a coal bed methane project in Shaanxi Province.

Under the terms of the deal, if commercial volumes of gas are produced from the pilot program, the parties will enter into a formal joint venture to develop the area, the Australian coal seam gas producer said.

Arrow recently announced a joint venture with the Geological Survey of Xinjiang Autonomous Region, where first drilling is targeted for the second quarter of 2009.

"All of these activities underline Arrow's extremely positive view of the future of the CBM industry in China where gas demand continues to be strong, long term gas prices attractive and where Arrow's particular skill set and experience is in demand by local industry participants," chief executive Nick Davies said.

 

[gorillapolice]

Any one beside me think this one may be on the way up?
My crystal ball won't show Green any more has had to much Red burnt into it.

Definitely. Really liking these guys at the moment.

I have high hopes for their plans in China (as do they I would think). Definitely a long term buy for me.

 

[phong_01]

any idea if Shell will take over AOE? History may repeat as happened with QGC after they bought Sunshine Gas.

 

[anatol]

I think you are right. I am expecting Shel will buy AOE. Shell has no other option. I am not sure if holding 30% of AOE would be enough and secure for Shell ! I beleive it will be the next big takeover in the market soon. Any other ideas ? Let's talk about AOE. (I am a holder of AOE shares )

 

[TheAbyss]

Very logical process for Shell to take over AOE imo. Very similar process to what happened to QGC. Aoe take up the small fish then position themselves for a larger fish. The off shore interests of Aoe may not be required so any news of divestment by Ae will be a very strong pointer for me.

Watch for a BG bid on Santos. They missed on Origin so STO makes sense and they are proven to have the cash. Watching with interest. Dark horse may well be a BG bid for AGL but unlikely given the additional diversity AGL have but you never know.

If BNB ever sort out what they are doing ESG will get snapped up also imo.

All my opinion only and have a great Xmas all.

 

[oldblue]

I'm holding AOE but not so sure that Shell will look to take them out. Their 30% interest makes it pretty secure from Shell's point of view and they can therefore afford to take their time and see how the whole CSG business develops.
Meanwhile, if STO or AGL look to be cheap enough it wouldn't surprise to see Shell look to get a foothold there as well.
All very speculative but AOE appear to be making the right moves, IMO.

 

[Trader Paul]

Posted 24122008:

Hi folks,

AOE ... here's an overview of our astroanalysis,
over the next couple of months:

05-06012009 ... positive light on AOE ...

16-19012009 ... 1 x positive & 1 x negative cycle,
posibly flat trading here.

04022009 ... difficult cycle

2602-18032009 ... a difficult period for AOE,
especially regarding finances, so watch for
AOE news/moves, around:

26-27022009 ... difficult news expected

05-06032009 ... negative light on AOE, with
a special focus on finances.

12-16032009 ... a strong & difficult cycle

17-18032008 ... more negative news expected here.

Looking ahead, April-June 2009 should see a lack of
interest and the price fall, significantly.

August-September 2009 should see a recovery in AOE,
but don't get too excited, as March 2010 should bring
some BIGtime negativity into play for AOE.

More later.

Merry Christmas and Happy 2009.

happy days

paul

 

[phong_01]

Some expecting upgrades from Pure Energy for AOE in 2009 if the deal goes ahead:

ATP852P - expecting further upgrades in 2009;
ATP806P - targeting reserve certification in 2009.

The takover is funded via existing cash reserves and proceeds from Arrow's previously announced sale of 30% interests to Shell.

Acquisition of Pure reserves allows optimisation of field development plans for first LNG project - continuing Arrow's position of being fully funded through early 2011.

 

[grace]

mc = $1.5 bill (710million shares fully diluted)
cash = $300 mill

value excluding cash $1.2bill

Profit upgrade today $345 mill for 1/2 yr (including sale of 30% of csg to Shell)

Arrow 2P = 1177
Arrow 3P = 3676

However, after buying pure for $670mill (from memory), will have 3P of 6148 (10636 with Shell's share).

Nice bit of gas Arrow are accumulating. Compared to the BG offer for QGC, they are way undervalued. $2 bill with 6148 PJ (with Pure) being Arrow's 70% of the gas. QGC $5.5bill with 7000PJ (was that all QGC's?).

Am I doing the figures right? Some of this is from memory.

When they convert 3P to 2P of 6000 odd, up there with QGC PJ when taken over by BG for $5.5bill (I think QGC had 7000PJ).

I wonder will we see a repeat of the BG/QGC thing here. Arrow is looking pretty cheap in my books IF it ends up with Pure. I see the Bidders Statement out tonight. They got PES for a bargain (I hold both). Check my figures please. I guess Arrow have a few o/s interests too.

 

[jancha]

Hi,
I hold a number of Arrow shares and was wondering why they're down 4% today on yesterdays good news and yet the market was up 1%. Is this a risky company or are the day traders controling the market to some extent hence the drop in price?

 

[Sean K]

Interest chart pattern occurring here.

Have to assume a break up one way or the other results in a larger move in that direction.

Maybe.

 

[anatol]

Guys !
What's happening?

Shell owns 30% of of Arrow, Arrow owns 30% of PES, but BG wants to buy PES ?

What is BG trying to do?

I didn't quite understand.

Bg also says they owns 10% of PES! And they won't sell it to Arrow, as they down't want to own Arrow shares.

Do they want to own whole Arrow shares or what?

I am confused !

Any ideas!

 

[basilio]

I think BG recognises a great bargain when they see one. PES is absurdly undervalued on proven reserves let along further exploration.

Regardless of the current low cost of energy there will be very big increases in energy costs as peak oil bites within the next 1-2 years. Now is the time to secure energy resources.

I wouldn't be surprised if Arrow has a rethink as well. $6.40 is not a full price by any stretch of the figures.

 

[oldblue]

I can't see AOE being able to outbid BG for Pure unless Shell enters the game. After all, Shell own 30% of AOE's coal seam methane assets and would have had an interest in AOE enhancing these through the takeover of Pure.
This can only improve the value of all CSM players including AOE, BOW, VPE - even BPT in a small way - but I suspect there is a fair way to go before the situation clarifies.

 

[anatol]

Yeah, the gas price will be definitly going upwards. Also LNG/CSG is the only way to reduce the carbon emissions in a short time (next 10 years) for most countries, especially for Australia. A gas power plant emits 70% less carbon than a brown coal power station (the ones like in VIC) and 50% less than a black coal powe station. So most coal power plants will be converted to gas power plants. Then more gas will be needed.

Also, Obama said the coal power plants will be bunkrupted, so LNG/CSG will be a major player in the energy industry.

So those guys are fighting for the gas now. That's normal.

I am not sure why Arrow needs to increase the price! If its share price goes over $3, it might fix the problem as Arrow has offered 1.21 Arrow shares plus $2.70 cash. Then $3 x 1.21 = $ 3.63 + $2.70 = $ 6.33

Isn't this right? Will it work this way?

But I don't know how Arrow shares will go over $3 by the way.

 

[bassmanpete]

I think cash + AOE shares is the more attractive option whatever the price of AOE is at the time the offer is taken up. I say that from the point of view of one who would hold onto AOE with the expectation of it going a lot higher in the long term. Obviously those who would immediately sell the AOE shares would have a different opinion.

I've held AOE since 2004 when they were 40 cents so I'm laughing anyway