Logique
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Mortal damage to the long term technicals? Have another look today while thinking medium term. I had a look and snapped some up.
AOE - Arrow Energy
- Thread starter yogi-in-oz
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The fundys in this company are quite strong for the medium term. Just hangin back to see a swing double top to give me more confidence. Been burnt toooo many times trying to pick a bottom on a long position.
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Logique
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I thought I'd have a look at the % performance comparison between AOE and QGC. Similar types of companies, but I lean to AOE, because while a smaller cap company, it has Asian exploration tenements which increase it's diversity and footprint.
The divergence in relative performances of the share prices is very recent, just in the last two weeks. AOE is currently trying to confirm support level at 1.80 - 1.85.
The divergence in relative performances of the share prices is very recent, just in the last two weeks. AOE is currently trying to confirm support level at 1.80 - 1.85.
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This is where charts don't tell the full story which went down the most during the melt down....AOE if you look at QGC it held up very well,put it this way it saved me from a margin call look at where QGC is now,sorry I disagree with your charts not that they are lying but other factors and variables that cannot be charted 
cheers laurie
cheers laurie
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Concur with Laurie. QGC was a shining star for me in August and now. Difference being QGC have no exposure to overseas volitility, price of Oil etc.
QGC have proved their resources and are locking in clients. IMO this is why the two charts started to seperate in December as QGC were announcing hedge deals with AGL to forward sell product to the electricity grid. At the same time AOE retreated a little on the back of the $70 million debt facility ann (imo).
AOE does look good on the medium to long term outlook and i continue to hold howver for now i see QGC making stronger headway based on the strong support during the current market conditions.
QGC have proved their resources and are locking in clients. IMO this is why the two charts started to seperate in December as QGC were announcing hedge deals with AGL to forward sell product to the electricity grid. At the same time AOE retreated a little on the back of the $70 million debt facility ann (imo).
AOE does look good on the medium to long term outlook and i continue to hold howver for now i see QGC making stronger headway based on the strong support during the current market conditions.
Imo, QGC may be looking stronger over the short-mid term, however I still believe AOE will ultimtaely have a higher price upside based on its overseas plays. There will only be a limited ceiling for contract gas prices in QLD, and while QGC may be looking stronger fundamentally, I believe AOE have got their strategy correct and will be an attractive long-term hold.
jman
The quarterly report from AOE, out today, makes interesting reading. Also interesting is the fluctuating price today and the volume of trades. The price has retreated from it's peak more than the general market and I've taken advantage of the variations to make some bargain purchases during the last week and today. If the takeover speculation has any foundation then the present SP must have anyone contemplating a takeover of AOE to be seriously considerating a move. Today the price has ranged from $1.595 to $1.79 with a turnover of 12,000.000 +
Sean K
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Not sure of the funnymentals with this one. Been following the thread, but I can't really see a $$ value or potential being put forward.
Any fundamentals gents? Apart from just securing contracts and taking stakes in things?
Chart wise looks like the tripple top has played out and time for some recovery, sideways movement. Obviously been punished more than others for whatever reason.....Maybe because it went from 60 cents to $3 in a year....longer term investors may have been just cashing in while they could during the panic...
This is the last broker report, but would seem out of date now.
http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/documents/819.pdf
Any fundamentals gents? Apart from just securing contracts and taking stakes in things?
Chart wise looks like the tripple top has played out and time for some recovery, sideways movement. Obviously been punished more than others for whatever reason.....Maybe because it went from 60 cents to $3 in a year....longer term investors may have been just cashing in while they could during the panic...
This is the last broker report, but would seem out of date now.
http://www.arrowenergy.com.au/documents/819.pdf
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Sean K
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Well, this looks to be the latest broker 'analysis', but the detail is missing.
AOE - Citi rates the stock as Buy, High Risk
BROKER NEWS - 01/02/2008
Following 32% rise in revenue in the December quarter over the previous one and a 16% increase in production, the broker has retained the Buy rating and the target price of $2.91.
The broker has noted that the stock has been punished in the recent downturn and expects it to remain volatile, but still remains confident that management will deliver strong business and share price growth in 2008.
With time and better understanding, the market will view the company's leveraged electricity initiative from the Enertrade acquisition favourably, the broker believes. Sector: Energy.
Target price is $2.91. Current Price is $1.74. Difference: $1.18 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
AOE - Citi rates the stock as Buy, High Risk
BROKER NEWS - 01/02/2008
Following 32% rise in revenue in the December quarter over the previous one and a 16% increase in production, the broker has retained the Buy rating and the target price of $2.91.
The broker has noted that the stock has been punished in the recent downturn and expects it to remain volatile, but still remains confident that management will deliver strong business and share price growth in 2008.
With time and better understanding, the market will view the company's leveraged electricity initiative from the Enertrade acquisition favourably, the broker believes. Sector: Energy.
Target price is $2.91. Current Price is $1.74. Difference: $1.18 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Watch this one fly today. I bought at $1.70 last week and put in a sell order again for $2 thinking that would be a good profit sometime this week. My order went through at opening at $2.05 and the last quote was $2.24. You win some you lose some. Luckily I still hold a few.
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I love these csg stocks 
Doing very nicely on QGC and AOE
A few more to mention would be ESg and
PES in particular who is tied up with Arrow
Pure energy now holds some of the biggest csg acreages in Queensland now approaching 21,000 km²
PES was hammered the other week and is still down
But it wont go un-noticed for too much longer
Go Arrow Up 24% about time !
Doing very nicely on QGC and AOE
A few more to mention would be ESg and
PES in particular who is tied up with Arrow
Pure energy now holds some of the biggest csg acreages in Queensland now approaching 21,000 km²
PES was hammered the other week and is still down
But it wont go un-noticed for too much longer
Go Arrow Up 24% about time !
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Hm not bad
Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 3.5 4.8 11.4 12.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
thx
MS
Any movement on sp will be mainly on what's happening in the sector rather than AOE itself it has been moving sideways for a while with the likes of QGC moving forward really with it's overseas assets AOE should be well into the $3 price range right now
cheers laurie
cheers laurie
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Actually item 3 would have a fair bit to do with it. Quite a few holders and new buyers may well have been looking to top up/ buy in when the QGC announcement came out thus sealing the deal phsycologically.
Excerpt from the ASX response follows. 125% increase in revenue will get a rise in the SP quicker than a dose of viagra.
3. Is there any reason to think that there may be a change in the operating profit before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the period ending 31 December 2007 would vary from the previous corresponding period by more than 15%? If so, please provide details as to the extent of the likely variation.
3. It is anticipated that there will be a change in the operating profit before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the period ending 31 December 2007 will vary from the previous corresponding period by more than 15%. This is due to the increased production and profitability from the Company’s producing projects during the half year together with initial results from the recently acquired Enertrade gas and pipeline businesses. The Company is currently finalising with its auditors the accounting treatment of numerous items including acquisition accounting for the Enertrade gas and pipeline business acquired in December 2007. The Company will provide an earnings guidance range for the half year as soon as these matters are finalised.
Operating revenues for the half year have increased by over 125% over the corresponding period to 31 December 2006 (from $11.2m for the six months to 31 December 2006 to over $25m for the six months to 31 December 2007).
- 2 -
The increased production, sales revenue and cashflows from operations have been previously advised to the ASX through the Company’s quarterly cashflow reports, the most recent of which was lodged on 31 January 2008.
The Company expects the audit review of its results for the six months ending 31 December 2007 to be completed and the results released on or before 25 February 2008.
Excerpt from the ASX response follows. 125% increase in revenue will get a rise in the SP quicker than a dose of viagra.
3. Is there any reason to think that there may be a change in the operating profit before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the period ending 31 December 2007 would vary from the previous corresponding period by more than 15%? If so, please provide details as to the extent of the likely variation.
3. It is anticipated that there will be a change in the operating profit before abnormal items and income tax so that the figure for the period ending 31 December 2007 will vary from the previous corresponding period by more than 15%. This is due to the increased production and profitability from the Company’s producing projects during the half year together with initial results from the recently acquired Enertrade gas and pipeline businesses. The Company is currently finalising with its auditors the accounting treatment of numerous items including acquisition accounting for the Enertrade gas and pipeline business acquired in December 2007. The Company will provide an earnings guidance range for the half year as soon as these matters are finalised.
Operating revenues for the half year have increased by over 125% over the corresponding period to 31 December 2006 (from $11.2m for the six months to 31 December 2006 to over $25m for the six months to 31 December 2007).
- 2 -
The increased production, sales revenue and cashflows from operations have been previously advised to the ASX through the Company’s quarterly cashflow reports, the most recent of which was lodged on 31 January 2008.
The Company expects the audit review of its results for the six months ending 31 December 2007 to be completed and the results released on or before 25 February 2008.
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Along with PNA & MAK.
Arrow Energy AOE, is yet another stock I have been following over the past period, & finally took a holding on Thursday at $2.28, after seeing some capping occurring at $2.32.
Here's the latest stats from Fridays Close.
No. of Trades: 1604
Volume:............. 3,488,005
Opening Price:... 2.320
High Price:........ 2.500
Low Price:......... 2.270
Fridays Close $2.490
Closing Buyer Depth: $2.490 (1,100,722)
Closing Seller Seller: $2.500 (532,370)
6-month High: 3.200
5-day EMA: 2.296
10-day EMA: 2.260
15-day EMA: 2.229
30-day EMA: 2.238
Avg Volume: 4,219,681
IMO : With AOE currently in an uptrend from its recent Jan Lows, Possible Test to beyond $2.70 over the coming period is looking promising as market still feels AOEs undervalued at current levels.
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Cheers from grant64
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Have posted 2 charts that I hope AOE Holders find useful.
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Here's Fridays Closing Intra-Day Chart for 22nd FEB. for the period 11.00a.m to 4.11p.m. showing a strong Buy Up of 112,519 Shares traded on the Close at $2.49.... Indeed very Bullish end to the week.
Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close.
22/02/2008 Bollinger Bands from 01/10/07 to 22/02/08
Arrow Energy AOE, is yet another stock I have been following over the past period, & finally took a holding on Thursday at $2.28, after seeing some capping occurring at $2.32.
Here's the latest stats from Fridays Close.
No. of Trades: 1604
Volume:............. 3,488,005
Opening Price:... 2.320
High Price:........ 2.500
Low Price:......... 2.270
Fridays Close $2.490
Closing Buyer Depth: $2.490 (1,100,722)
Closing Seller Seller: $2.500 (532,370)
6-month High: 3.200
5-day EMA: 2.296
10-day EMA: 2.260
15-day EMA: 2.229
30-day EMA: 2.238
Avg Volume: 4,219,681
IMO : With AOE currently in an uptrend from its recent Jan Lows, Possible Test to beyond $2.70 over the coming period is looking promising as market still feels AOEs undervalued at current levels.
.
.
.
Cheers from grant64
.
.
Have posted 2 charts that I hope AOE Holders find useful.
.
Here's Fridays Closing Intra-Day Chart for 22nd FEB. for the period 11.00a.m to 4.11p.m. showing a strong Buy Up of 112,519 Shares traded on the Close at $2.49.... Indeed very Bullish end to the week.
Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close.
22/02/2008 Bollinger Bands from 01/10/07 to 22/02/08
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