ANZ - ANZ Banking Group

[ROE]

Introducing Monoline to the cast

"The traditional role of monoline insurers was to rent their high credit rating to bond issuers in return for a fee. However, a number of them, including ACA, started insuring more complex products like CDSs (credit default swaps) and the other recent bogey, CDOs (collateralised debt obligations), and they have been hard hit by the falling value of those products."


http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23238289-462,00.html

 

[numbercruncher]

I like this line from the article, Just who can you trust , you dont know whos on the hook and hiding what anymore!

A spokesman for NAB, which is Australia's second-largest lender after the Commonweath, refused to confirm whether the bank had monoline exposure.

One would have to assume exposure when one refuses to confirm or deny.

 

[vishalt]

Why don't you wait until they have the red light sale? I don't think we have seen the end of the slaying of banks yet. Wait until we have our real estate correction and then go shopping!

Because picking bottoms is impossible, but buying in the red is much better than buying in the green and I'll just buy more if it goes down more, not putting all my capital in.

Bought Westpac today

 

[PhoenixXx]

I don't think we would see any daylight soon. bad news keep on rolling. Even black Tuesday turned out to be better than worse...

Aussie stocks bounce back; ANZ falls

Thursday February 21, 2008, 11:24 am
(Adds ANZ, updates indexes)

Shares in Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ASX: ANZ.ax) fell 2.9 percent to A$21.37 on concerns that it may have a bigger-than-expected unsecured exposure to troubled investment firm Centro Properties Group CNP.AX.

According to The Australian newspaper, a review conducted by investment bank, UBS, has revealed that ANZ has a A$680 million ($623.8 million) exposure to Centro, up from initial estimates by analysts of about A$500 million.

The bank's total exposure to Centro, including secured loans, was believed to be A$1.2 billion, the paper added

 

[mfsperth]

ANZ

ANZ has been given a guarantee by the taxpayers of Australia through the government to stabilise it.

It is a poor repayment for this for ANZ to start sacking staff and aggravating the economic and welfare problems.

 

[sammy84]

ANZ is in day 5 of its 15 day DRP period. It seems this has sent the price heavily downward, even when other banks have had up days. Is this a good period to buy in? Peoples thoughts would be appreciated?

 

[johenmo]

Sammy - someone I know who has made oodles of $ via shares bought some a while back. I think he wishes he'd waited.

I'm interested but am waiting. Maybe I won't buy any at all in the end. More writedown disclosures will only make people more wary.

You might make some $ S/Term trading - it depends on what your plan is.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

ANZ is an interesting stock technically.

It was in a classic technical trading range from last August when it fell to its recent lows.

It is now in an ascending triangle, after a trading range one of the best validated technical signals.

Its volume has increased over the last few weeks.

I would not be surprised to see it challenge the $20 mark.

gg

a chart is enclosed.

 

[Vlad]

ANZ back over $13, but will it last?

Keen to increase my portfolio but the outlook for all banks looks bleak to me.

ANZ also have the Opes Prime issue to contend with.

 

[wonderrman]

ANZ also have the Opes Prime issue to contend with.

And the issue of more businesses not being able to pay their dues. If we go through a bad recession it will obviously get worse for the banks. If you really want to buy the banks I would sit around and wait a bit longer. Common sense don't you think?

 

[Vlad]

Wonderrman,

Yes I agree, I think banks will get worse before they get better. Also thinking Nationalization of banks may be an option taken. Seriously considered in UK, US and elsewhere.

Then what price banks!!!

 

[sammy84]

Wonderrman,

Yes I agree, I think banks will get worse before they get better. Also thinking Nationalization of banks may be an option taken. Seriously considered in UK, US and elsewhere.

Then what price banks!!!

Nationalization is a long way away. Tier 1 capital ratios are very high and the risk exposure of our banks is very different. I would worry about dividends being reduced but not nationalization.

 

[wonderrman]

Nationalization is a long way away. Tier 1 capital ratios are very high and the risk exposure of our banks is very different. I would worry about dividends being reduced but not nationalization.

I don't think there is a chance of nationalization in Aus. Div's being cut is a big possibility though according to the brokerage community.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/big-four-tipped-to-slash-fat-dividends-20090129-7suc.html

 

[oldblue]

Well of course divs are likely to be cut!

The banks are currently trading on an historical yield of about twice what they did in " normal" times. A 50% cut would only see them back to "normal" which in these times of low interest rates would look like a very attractive yield, particularly if divs remain largely franked.

I'll be buying more on any pronounced, panicky weakness.

 

[Miner]

Well of course divs are likely to be cut!

The banks are currently trading on an historical yield of about twice what they did in " normal" times. A 50% cut would only see them back to "normal" which in these times of low interest rates would look like a very attractive yield, particularly if divs remain largely franked.

I'll be buying more on any pronounced, panicky weakness.

Share Tips as reported in Compare Shares - Has any one to comment about a bold SELL recommendation against ANZ

How far should it go then ?

For those who have not read here u go

Broker Stock Recommendations February 16 – 6 to BUY, 6 to SELL and 6 to

Russell Krause
NOVUS CAPITAL

SELL RECOMMENDATIONS

ANZ Bank (ANZ)

The ANZ has raised significant money through bond issues, but the market soon expects a big equity raising. We expect more write-downs, and ANZ may be involved in protracted litigation over its role in the Opes Prime disaster. A slowing economy is hurting small business and this could reduce ANZ’s profits. Dividends could be cut.

 

[Family_Guy]

Any brokers been right this year.......yet?? How about this recommendation?



Broker Stock Recommendations February 17 – 6 to BUY, 6 to SELL and 6 to

Family Guy
HOUSE CAPITAL

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

ANZ Bank (ANZ)

The ANZ has raised significant money through bond issues, but the market soon expects a big equity raising, but we can't be sure. We expect a couple of write-downs, nothing too serious, just a few odd million $, and ANZ may be involved in protracted litigation over its role in the Opes Prime disaster, but then again it may not. A slowing economy is hurting small business and this could reduce ANZ’s profits, but then again it might not. Dividends could be cut, or maybe they won't. And Rudd is about to give most Australians some more cash and while this won't directly stay in Australia, over 55% of it will end up in the coffers of Australias leading poker machine owners and 87% of those businesses bank with the ANZ. And hey, they are just about to make an extra $200mil a year when the new ATM charges start in just 2 weeks time and while you can't do nuthin about it, you may as well jump on board and reap the rewards of a banking system that only looks after one thing.......it's share holders.

 

[Miner]

Any brokers been right this year.......yet?? How about this recommendation?



Broker Stock Recommendations February 17 – 6 to BUY, 6 to SELL and 6 to

Family Guy
HOUSE CAPITAL

BUY RECOMMENDATIONS

ANZ Bank (ANZ)

The ANZ has raised significant money through bond issues, but the market soon expects a big equity raising, but we can't be sure. We expect a couple of write-downs, nothing too serious, just a few odd million $, and ANZ may be involved in protracted litigation over its role in the Opes Prime disaster, but then again it may not. A slowing economy is hurting small business and this could reduce ANZ’s profits, but then again it might not. Dividends could be cut, or maybe they won't. And Rudd is about to give most Australians some more cash and while this won't directly stay in Australia, over 55% of it will end up in the coffers of Australias leading poker machine owners and 87% of those businesses bank with the ANZ. And hey, they are just about to make an extra $200mil a year when the new ATM charges start in just 2 weeks time and while you can't do nuthin about it, you may as well jump on board and reap the rewards of a banking system that only looks after one thing.......it's share holders.

Thanks Family Guy for giving a 180 degree opposite recommendation extracted from House Capital

That is really interesting and the fundamental question remains - why should a broker provide accurate information to rest of the market who have not paid fees for their research.

I am now totally confused myself if to keep ANZ , buy more or sell existing ones ? My action will take the average and it comes to zero - Do nothing.


Let us see how the market behaves in next 10 minutes.

 

[dirty_harry]

Thanks for publishing this. Could give me an ulcer.
It's clear that the level of fear is stratospheric, so is it time to be greedy?

> 14% dividend with franking included. Imagine what the SP upside is if they can hold it.

 

[Vlad]

If ANZ does not make a proper settlement with the guys who lost out with OPES and if it does go to court, the potential loss to ANZ could be $$billions especially if they are forced to buy back on market the shares they sold potentially illegally.

Imagine buying back 40 Million SLA shares alone on market??? Priceless.

ANZ had bad legal advice when it acted on OPES and will pay. If lucky it will get away with a commercial settlement if it makes a decent offer. Otherwise it will drag through the courts and some of the litigants have serious money to follow it through.

 

[dirty_harry]

If ANZ does not make a proper settlement with the guys who lost out with OPES and if it does go to court, the potential loss to ANZ could be $$billions especially if they are forced to buy back on market the shares they sold potentially illegally.

Imagine buying back 40 Million SLA shares alone on market??? Priceless.

ANZ had bad legal advice when it acted on OPES and will pay. If lucky it will get away with a commercial settlement if it makes a decent offer. Otherwise it will drag through the courts and some of the litigants have serious money to follow it through.

I don't believe billions, the shares were only around a few hundred million. Most are much lower now anyway even if they did have to buy them back. The judgements have been in the bank's favour so far. When you think about it the clients signed off market transfers, i.e. they transferred ownership of their shares to Opes. From that point on they no longer owned them. Opes had made a promise to pay them back one day on request, nothing more than that. So clients were conned by Opes, not the banks. Opes clients had no agreement with the banks.