ANZ - ANZ Banking Group

[UMike]

If it wasn't for social distancing......... I'd tell yous to get a room.

;-)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

not sure if this is "On Topic" and there are a few skews (dividends not included) but some conclusions I draw from the 30 year plot, below, are:
a) the good days for Banks were from 1990 to 2005
b) CBA is the 'best in class' by a longshot
c) They really haven't gotten over the GFC. Covid is a further complication.
d) QBE, thrown in because it was mentioned, runs its own race. Moody, though, and stops to tie up shoelaces too often.

30 year chart, monthly plot, ANZ in blue-ish purple, with NAB in red (and the underperformer), QBE light blue, CBA dark green and WBC light green

 

[Dona Ferentes]

On slide 10 of ANZ’s latest investor presentation, it's good to learn the bank’s

“focused approach ensures a systematic cadence that adds velocity to benefit realisation”.

This caused a bit of a stir (not much) out there:

• ANZ's corporate affairs honcho told a news outlet the phrase means "there is an intense focus and regular meetings with the CEO to get results faster".
• CEO Shayne Elliott told a business journalist the phrase is talking about driving down costs through being a "simpler, better bank" for customers, which "will inevitably be safer [to] run and so would be lower cost".
• Elliott himself conceded to 2GB that talk of "systematic cadence" and "bringing velocity to benefit realisation" sounded like "utter nonsense", though said he was glad it had delivered investors some"light humour". As for whoever wrote the offending slide, "maybe next time he can write the whole thing".

 

[Gunnerguy]

Hi All,

My journey in to generating an income from Option Trading continues.
I have traded some options in CBA and now looking at ANZ considering their results in October and a possible increase to there and possible affects og potential good results from CBA in August.
I would welcome any comments or critics on a trade I am considering next week.
Either Trade A or B on ANZ for September expiration. ANZ current price = $28.32.
ANZ Full Year results on 28th October. CBA results in August, if they are good they could bump ANZ up.

Trade A.
1 Bull Put 29/29.5 Credit Spread contract.
Buy 29 Put. PM = -1.52, delta = -0.607. Sell 29.5 Put. PM = +1.87, delta = -0.694.
Net Credit = $32.80 (after commission), Delta = 0.087.
Risk is -$17.20, Max gain is $32.80, Breakeven is $29.17, +3% on current price.

Trade B.
1 Bull Put 30.5/31 Credit Spread contract.
Buy 30.5 Put. PM = -2.67, delta = -0.833. Sell 31 Put. PM = +3.11, delta = -0.888.
Net Credit = $41.8 (after commission), Delta = 0.055.
Risk is -$8.20, Max gain is $41.80, Breakeven is $30.58.17, +8% on current price.

Trade B has a better Risk/Reward, however BE is 8% about current price.
I am, however, leaning towards doing 2 or 3 contracts of Trade A.

Any comments, ideas or critic would be greatfully received.

Gunnerguy.
(Learning, slowly, to generate income from Options Trading)

 

[Sean K]

Anyone going to bet the pattern continues?

 

[qldfrog]

Anyone going to bet the pattern continues?

View attachment 137161

Sean a few VERY BIG differences..:
Hard to assume future will reflect past in these conditions IMHO

 

[Dona Ferentes]

ANZ fell 1.9 per cent after flagging a hit to margins due to stiff competition in mortgage lending. Group Net Interest Margin was down 8bps for the quarter with underlying NIM down 5bps.

It's a tough gig; don't want to lend (gear into) to something that turns sour. Competition is there, constantly, from the other Big Lenders, plus somewhat deregulated heel -nippers

ANZ has made solid progress in Australia to improve systems and processes for simple home loans with application times now in line with other major lenders. Efforts continue to improve response times for more complex home loan applications. Australian Home Loans balance sheet grew slightly in the first quarter FY22. Given the high levels of refinancing activity in the sector, managing both attrition and margins remain key areas of focus.

and the central bank's ultra-loose policy settings, where are they taking things. Good or bad?

... a continuation of the structural headwinds [is] impacting the sector. The impact of rising rates ... and recent deposit pricing changes are expected to moderate these ongoing headwinds in the second quarter..

 

[Sean K]

Sean a few VERY BIG differences..:
Hard to assume future will reflect past in these conditions IMHO
View attachment 137166

Agree, looks tenuous, but it finished above the Dec low and yesterday looks like a reversal candle. Disregarding the bad report yesterday, it still looks similar to the other troughs. Since I think that, it will completely tank today, so better to put your Okanuis on.

 

[Gunnerguy]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...-stress-interest-rate-rise-election/101026362

Doesn’t put any of the banks in a good light, particularly ANZ.

Gunnerguy

 

[KevinBB]

Dividend $0.72 Fully Franked. Paid 1 July 2022. I'll take that, thank you Mr ANZ.

One down, two more to go.

KH

 

[Dona Ferentes]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...-stress-interest-rate-rise-election/101026362

Doesn’t put any of the banks in a good light, particularly ANZ.

but won't Current Affair luv it.

 

[SyBoo]

Now trading below book value (bvps). Am not going to say it cheap, but am going to say, Jinkies Batman!

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp bank. If so, details next week?

At least this limits the chance of ANZ having a nibble at the privately held MYOB (in the grasp of KKR, at present), which would be a can of worms.

 

[divs4ever]

Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp bank. If so, details next week?

At least this limits the chance of ANZ having a nibble at the privately held MYOB (in the grasp of KKR, at present), which would be a can of worms.

SUN ( i hold ) is talking about 'restructuring ' one arm might be up for grabs , but surely the ACCC would put the microscope on if ANZ chased the banking arm ( although the insurance arm might trigger oversight questions as well )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

SUN .... surely the ACCC would put the microscope on, if ANZ chased the banking arm

Why? Switzerland only has 2 big banks, and some Cantonal ones.

 

[divs4ever]

there was ( here ) at one stage a '4 pillars policy ' for our banking although there has been a persistent push for a '5th pillar ' to put pressure ( ??? ) on the current cartel

would the current ( allegedly non-capitalist ) government drift away from such a policy ( and endanger the unionist safe haven of CBA ) ??

i guess time will tell

i would consider your view more carefully , if there was a real threat of one or more of the minor banks failing ( like in the Great Building Society run ) ( not that a MAJOR bank run is completely off the table , in Australia )

but so far ( if the bank 'stress-tests ' aren't completely corrupted ) all the bigger banks ( except maybe AMP ) look fairly solid compared to their EU counterparts

 

[sptrawler]

Looks like ANZ might make a bid for Suncorp bank. If so, details next week?

At least this limits the chance of ANZ having a nibble at the privately held MYOB (in the grasp of KKR, at present), which would be a can of worms.

With the advent of fintechs and digital currencies, it would make sense that Australia's banks consolidate further IMO.
As with most things in Australia, a very small market place can only support so much competition, if the regulators want to enforce a very strict regime they will have to allow consolidation.
They can't expect small banks to run anti money laundering, anti competitive, anti lending to irresponsible applicants processes to keep up with the regulators requirements and still make money IMO.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

A 1 for 15 renounceable rights offer at $18.90 a share.

 

[KevinBB]

Congratulations to the ANZ board, for not going with the institutional only capital raising, and including retail shareholders in the share issue on exactly the same basis as institutional shareholders.

2,802,817,801 number of ordinary, fully paid shares on issue (per notice on 12 July 2022)
186,854,521 shares to be issued under the capital raising (per today's announcements)
Close enough to 1 in 15.

KH

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“The Suncorp brand will continue in place for at least five years,” ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott says on a conference call. “If we were to retain a separate brand it would be to ... attract a different segment.”

But if it does retain the brand, Elliott says it will be operated under a completely unified back office. The bank is still trying to assess the benefits of having two brands over the longer term.

- a bit like the other banks. Play the local angle, I guess, even if it is only a marketing perception.