Any successful chart traders here?

[DJG]

Regarding TA, I think Fibonacci numbers still work well, as retracements and projections.

Do Fib levels work because the next trader believes the same thing and that the levels will be respected? - traders behaviour/psycology then comes into discussion.

I'm not trying to snipe at you or anything but just opening it up.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Do Fib levels work because the next trader believes the same thing and that the levels will be respected? - traders behaviour/psycology then comes into discussion.

I'm not trying to snipe at you or anything but just opening it up.

They don't 'work'. They go like this,

"XYZ is getting over bought I expect a pull back soon"

A week later,
"XYZ has pulled back like I said it would to 23.6% fib mark I expect it to bounce here"

Another week goes by,
"Well the 23.6% fib mark failed but its approaching the 38.2% mark that could go back to highs from there"

Another week later,
"well the drop on wall street mucked up the chance for it to bounce off the 38.2 fib but we are now approaching 61.8 or not even far from 50% so I expect it to bounce here"

It finally turns up and there you go you nailed it.

Randomness squeezed into a 'pattern' for the punters.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Do Fib levels work because the next trader believes the same thing and that the levels will be respected? - traders behaviour/psycology then comes into discussion.

I'm not trying to snipe at you or anything but just opening it up.

What I've noticed:

Really strong bullish moves with little gapping on the leg up (eg. MKB) will have a high chance of bouncing off 23%. Buy at 23%, sell at 0% or higher.

Strong moves with a bit of irregularity or gapping - look to buy these at 38% or 50%, watching the depth for cues as to which will provide support (eg. MBE). Don't wait more than a few days for the move to happen. If you buy at 38%, sell at 23% or higher. If 50%, then 38% or higher. You would be expecting a decent 1-2 day move so that your actual R:R is >50%, (the stoploss is the next level in the lower other direction). You need a high win rate.

Moderate moves or moves with gaps or irregularity I wouldn't use Fib levels on.

I'm hoping to get this systematized on AB one day soon so I can backtest it for the best stops. To me it looks like it depends a lot on the quality and strength of the move that precedes it, as to which number it bounces off.

 

[cynic]

some people ...
some people will tell you hell exists.

It does exist!

Some people have reported having tenants and neighbours from hell, and after having had direct experience of such Faustian beings I'd have to agree!

Also, anyone trading the DAX with leverage will have visited hell on more than one occasion during the past few years.

 

[Joules MM1]

Do Fib levels work because the next trader believes the same thing and that the levels will be respected? - traders behaviour/psycology then comes into discussion.

I'm not trying to snipe at you or anything but just opening it up.

try not to get sidetracked with waffling theory ..... reaching for the majic bullet

the only question you need to ask is "show me that trade in real time"

 

[DJG]

The Randomness squeezed into a 'pattern' for the punters.

Sounds about right.

try not to get sidetracked with waffling theory ..... reaching for the majic bullet

the only question you need to ask is "show me that trade in real time"

Exactly right. More and more I'm more towards fundamentally looking at a company, what it does etc. Compared to buying based on historic patterns.

Except for in the instance of pairs trading such as SKC is familiar with. Although I've never bothered to give much effort to.

 

[wayneL]

It does exist!

Some people have reported having tenants and neighbours from hell, and after having had direct experience of such Faustian beings I'd have to agree!

Also, anyone trading the DAX with leverage will have visited hell on more than one occasion during the past few years.

Indeed!!

It is the same place highly leveraged naked put traders (and synthetic versions thereof) will visit sooner or later. :evilburn:

 

[cynic]

Indeed!!

It is the same place highly leveraged naked put traders (and synthetic versions thereof) will visit sooner or later. :evilburn:

Not according to that famous hindsight swing trader of dark pools and promoter of the non-guaranteed, guaranteed stop loss, it doesn't. Those readers acquainted with that other thread and the "one whom must not be named" for fear of litigation will know what I mean.

We all know that things do work completely differently in the Noddyland Trading Room of certain unscrupulous seminar marketeers!

P.S. Apologies for being a little off topic.

 

[cynic]

Indeed!!

It is the same place highly leveraged naked put traders (and synthetic versions thereof) will visit sooner or later. :evilburn:

Not according to that famous "inside tips" trading, hindsight swing trader of dark pools and promoter of the non-guaranteed, guaranteed stop loss, it doesn't.
Those readers acquainted with that other thread and the "one whom must not be named" (for fear of litigation), will know what I mean.

We all know that things do work completely differently in the Noddyland Trading Room of certain unscrupulous seminar marketeers!

P.S. Apologies for being a little off topic.

 

[wayneL]

We all know that things do work completely differently in the Noddyland Trading Room of certain unscrupulous seminar marketeers!

'cept ya have'ta stump up $x,000 to enter the parallel reality where such things are not only possible, but available to everyone..... just sign on the dotted line and gimme yer credit card number. :evilburn:

 

[subterfuge]

Why do you bother looking for something that works in one market and then need it to be validated in a market that it doesn't work in?

I meant more liquid instruments with a similar range/volatility; like price action that works on CL should also work on the ES.
However, I only put stock(excuse pun) in this because more apparently knowledgeable traders informed me that it was so and that any 'pattern' that I noticed that couldn't be transferred was likely not a genuine 'edge'.

But like in say, in my experience, I think they're wrong.

Can I send you a chart or 2 to see whether you think i'm barking up the wrong tree or not?

 

[tech/a]

Just as you can trade all instruments technically
So you can trade them fundamentally and
Intuitively. The arguement continues and will continue
Infinitum.

But in answer to your question simply --- yes.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I guess i'm always guilty of putting everyone elses opinions above my own.

Can I send you a chart or 2 to see whether you think i'm barking up the wrong tree or not?

Oh my god! Can you not see the massive conflict in these two lines!!!

The following is meant in the most well intentioned way....

Harden the F up mate!! Make your decisions YOURS.

That is the only way to be a trader. Be creative, see the market the way you want to trade it, be persistent, be unhappy with "just another sh!te day", be a trader.

 

[burglar]

It does exist!

Some people have reported having tenants and neighbours from hell, and after having had direct experience of such Faustian beings I'd have to agree!

Also, anyone trading the DAX with leverage will have visited hell on more than one occasion during the past few years.

Some of those same people also tell you Heaven exists ...
And Catholics will tell you that Purgatory exists ...
But I did not want to drag religion into the discussion! *appropriate emoticon*

Q. How do you avoid big mistakes?
A. Experience.
Q. How do you get experience?
A. Making big mistakes!!

 

[Caveroute]

No ,its not termite .

 

[pixel]

Of course they exist. Just listen to these two ladies:

Samantha Jade:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcUljPn8e18

and Carrie Underwood's Classic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU1pD4xPe2M

 

[nulla nulla]

.... Make your decisions YOURS.

That is the only way to be a trader. Be creative, see the market the way you want to trade it, be persistent, be unhappy with "just another sh!te day", be a trader.

TH is right. Most of the posters above fall into one of four categories:

1. They trade Equities;
2. They trade Foreign Exchange;
3. They trade options; and
4. They pretend to trade.

By all means listen to what everyone has to say then sift through it all for what you can see will work using charts in the market you want to trade. Then make it your decision, your mistakes, your coming to grips with it, your rising to the challenges, you getting it right and you making a success from it. It takes time.

No ,its not termite .

Okay, if it isn't a termite I bet what ever it is, it is still cold.

 

[burglar]

... Randomness squeezed into a 'pattern' for the punters.

That's what cookie cutters are for!

 

[Joules MM1]

It takes time.

oh, i see.....i have 22 magic wands, 3 jars of everything-will-be-alright-just-hang-in-there cream, 1 ex nazi black box and a harry potter lookalike pair of special glasses (donated by the gann family)

interested offers can email me on wannabeanumpty.con (nigerian url for uber security)

 

[cynic]

oh, i see.....i have 22 magic wands, 3 jars of everything-will-be-alright-just-hang-in-there cream, 1 ex nazi black box and a harry potter lookalike pair of special glasses (donated by the gann family)

interested offers can email me on wannabeanumpty.con (nigerian url for uber security)

That sounds perfect!

Ohh! Wait just one minute!

Do you have an AFSL number? (It's OK if you've rented one from someone.)