Analysis wanted...

[CanOz]

I call them Heineken Asahi.

A little stock market humour on a Friday night.

I could go an Asahi right now.

hmmm, with sashimi

 

[CanOz]

Ok fellow punters as much analysis as you want. If this was a stock what do you think? Is it bullish? Bearish? Indifferent to its future?

Can you see a trading opportunity given a certain move? What would invalidate that trade?

Does it look like any stock or instrument that you recognise?

Here is the charts,

Daily
View attachment 50735

Weekly
View attachment 50736

Monthly
View attachment 50737

Here is the SPI daily, with HA candles...

 

[jmg86]

First post here on ASF.

Looking at these charts, looks like something to do with the overnight Gaps in the SPI? Some sort of cumulative buy the close sell open? eg. there's big ranges on the charts when we have large overnight gaps in the SPI and tight ranges when it has no offshore lead like we had early last week, the breakout above 2200 in the chart is when we had the gap after Australian day?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Ok just to add to the fun before I reveal the mystery instrument I'll tell you its 'something' from the ASX market and this is it compared to the XAO (Blue line),

Long term comparison,


From this you can see the XAO from the end of 2007 to the start of 2009 fell harder. And has lagged behind since those lows.

Medium term (weekly),

 

[Gringotts Bank]

When does the fun start? :jump:

How can such a chart - which is almost identical to the XAO - be of use in trading? I could just look at the XAO itself, surely?

 

[tech/a]

Advancing stock from Declining stock.
Some how charted in Candlestick format.

which is almost identical to the XAO - be of use in trading?

Well because it ISNT.

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Ok just to add to the fun before I reveal the mystery instrument I'll tell you its 'something' from the ASX market and this is it compared to the XAO (Blue line),

Long term comparison,
View attachment 50810

From this you can see the XAO from the end of 2007 to the start of 2009 fell harder. And has lagged behind since those lows.

Medium term (weekly),
View attachment 50811

I would be going long, stop aroud 2070.

My guess is that it's some sort of sector index? Seems too close to the XAO to not be some sort of derivative. Perhaps Financials or top 50/100?

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Food for thought:

What would be a leading indicator prior to GFC and a lagging indicator afterwards? Or put another way, what would be valued higher prior to GFC and valued lower afterwards?

Property? Maybe an REIT/RE Index?

Am I getting warmer?

Damn you for putting this up it's going to play on my mind all day :/

EDIT: Can't be property - we didn't have that large a fall I in 08 I would have thought

 

[onthesword]

Probably small ords

 

[CanOz]

I went over every index in my premium data collection and found nothing at that level. I'm guessing its a custom index that's made up from a derivative of the main index.

CanOz

 

[cynic]

Charts have never appealed to me, but if I had to guess, I would say the XSO represented in USD.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Probably small ords

Here is the comparison to the Small ordinaries,

How can such a chart - which is almost identical to the XAO - be of use in trading? I could just look at the XAO itself, surely?

Well that is the point of this thread. From recent posts some are, IMO, looking at the market with the depth of 2 min worth of newbie's analysis. There is a unique flaw in Aussie indexes, in fact most Asian indexes, that to me makes looking at the XAO chart and making portfolio decision F'in silly. And I'm not even a systems trader.

Back latter....

 

[CanOz]

Ooooh, interesting....the plot thickens.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Big build up. Is this necessary?!

::::tumbleweed rolls by:::::::

 

[Trembling Hand]

Big build up. Is this necessary?!

::::tumbleweed rolls by:::::::

sorry dude can you just post a pick of the XAO with an RSI and some random lines then we can be done with this. We all know how good your calls have been with those tools..........

 

[Gringotts Bank]

It's like a Hollywood production!! :

If you have something useful to say, why not just say it?

 

[Trembling Hand]

If you have something useful to say, why not just say it?

Yeah sorry I work slow, But hey least I get it right, I'd prefer that than posting your stuff thats continually proven "dis-proved"!

 

[CanOz]

Yeah sorry I work slow, But hey least I get it right, I'd prefer that than posting your stuff thats continually proven "dis-proved"!

OK you two, that's enough:frown:....

the suspense is killing me.

CanOz

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

Is it the XAO, taken at some point in time (e.g. 2007) that retains all the original stocks at that point in time until now? That is to say, it wouldn't include any stocks added or removed since that snapshot was taken?

Edit: would that make sense though? Given the positive bias of the index (via removal of the laggards) you'd expect the chart to be trending below the XAO?

 

[KurwaJegoMac]

OK you two, that's enough:frown:....

the suspense is killing me.

CanOz

Cmon CanOz get stuck into it! I reckon you can crack this one