AMT Model & Methodology

Frank D · 2 September 2009

S&P 500 and 5-day pattern

Early sell pattern from the 5-day 50% level down into the 5-day lows
saw buyers come into the market using support:- 5-day lows and
Weekly 50% level.

However, as pointed out Tuesday was part of a 2-day stall set-up from
the higher weekly open, which often results in a lower daily close.

If Tuesday had remained above support levels, then Wednesday would normally continue into a higher Weekly close.

Tuesday instead has closed lower breaking support, with now the bias
to continue down towards September 50% levels.

Support now becomes resistance for this week (1012)

This is the first break of the Weekly 50% level (brown) since the June's
highs.

And important because it is occuring after reaching the Yearly 50% level
@ 1038

Frank D · 3 September 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Whilst the SPI is below the Yearly 50% level @ 4455, the bias is to drift towards the 4th Quarter 50% level (september-October 50% level)

However, that needs to see Support fail on a lower Weekly close.

A weekly close above 4455 and it's more 5-day pattern swing trading for
the next few weeks, with a bias to rise upwards into the 4th quarter towards 4600+

Frank D · 4 September 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Lower Weekly close but still trading above support levels on SPI.

This was set-up with the 5-day pattern @ 4474 with an extended down
move towards 4409.

S&P 500 still trading below Support and I have the same expectation of
a lower Weekly close.

Maybe it might close around the middle of the 5-day range, but based on
this week's trading and 'no' HOOK patterns in the first 3 days, normally this
would lead to more weakness into Friday's close.

Weekly report out tomorrow

MRC & Co · 4 September 2009

Hope that S&P analysis is right Frank, I've got a lot riding on it! Eek.

nunthewiser · 4 September 2009

MRC & Co said:
Hope that S&P analysis is right Frank, I've got a lot riding on it! Eek.

personally thinking because of the long weekend in the u.s a few would be reluctant to stay in many actual trading positions , personally expecting a weak (red ) night in the u.s and am currently positioned for that also

i could be wrong but thats where probabilitys have placed me

sorry frank for interupting just giving my 2 cents on where i see tonight also

ThingyMajiggy · 4 September 2009

MRC & Co said:
Hope that S&P analysis is right Frank, I've got a lot riding on it! Eek.

the es actually looks quite strong right now, but I hope its a red day for you

keep it up frank.

Frank D · 5 September 2009

S&P 500 Weekly and 5-day pattern

S&P didn't have a lower Friday close.

The set-up was for a retest of the Weekly 50% levels, which was
matched with the 5-day 50% level:- higher Daily open and 'sell resistance'

Normally this would result in a move down into friday's lows and a rotation towards the September 50% levels.

That might still happen this month, but not based on Friday's close.

There was some early selling on Friday but no follow through on the
downside, and the S&P closing in the middle of the range.

Weekly Reports out now...

http://austindex.blogspot.com/

http://www.usindexweekly.blogspot.com/

tech/a · 5 September 2009

MRC & Co said:
Hope that S&P analysis is right Frank, I've got a lot riding on it! Eek.

Based purely on Franks analysis?

MRC & Co · 5 September 2009

tech/a said:
Based purely on Franks analysis?

lol, of course not.

Took a bit of a hammering on that one! But still in the shorts.

Frank D · 5 September 2009

tech/a said:
Based purely on Franks analysis?

Depends on where you took the shorts?

Did you take the shorts on the Yearly 50% level @ 1038?

Did you take the shorts on the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday @ 1024?
(2nd day sell pattern from a higher Weekly open)?

You would be still in the money…

If you took shorts on the next Set-up you would have been stopped out,
but initially you would have been up $400 US per lot on Friday.

If you are still short from higher prices (1038 or 1024), then you would still
be in the money, but now the probability of going down decreases?

BTW,

I already know how to trade the entire week next week based on
two probable set-ups.

I would like to post it, but I have a gut feeling that Tech/A will once
again criticize it, for the simple reason he just doesn’t get what
probability and objective pattern recognition is.

He prefers to use an illusory & subjective methodology which is contantly curve fitted thereafter.

If anyone wants it, just PM @
frankied@tpg.com.au

I’ll send it Monday afternoon.

Frank D · 8 September 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI rising from last week's support and this week's lower weekly open,
but confirmed with today's Hook & break of 4482 on open.

The continuation upwards is helped by this week's mini 'thrust' pattern in
the US markets after Friday's HOOK back above support, and expectation
of a move towards the Weekly highs.

tech/a · 9 September 2009

Sad really I asked.

Based purely on Franks analysis?

You replied

I would like to post it, but I have a gut feeling that Tech/A will once
again criticize it, for the simple reason he just doesn’t get what
probability and objective pattern recognition is.

He prefers to use an illusory & subjective methodology which is contantly curve fitted thereafter.

To which I replied.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16357&page=15

Post 288

More illusion and subjective methodology.
Love it!

Frank D · 10 September 2009

tech/a said:
Post 288

More illusion and subjective methodology.
Love it!

I would hope you are making money in these markets, there are a ton
of opportunities to do so.

I’m interested in seeing whether those trades have anything to do
with EW, or simply using tradional T/A:- trends & breakouts.

DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets following last Friday's HOOK close back above support, with
the expectation that price is moving towards the Weekly highs this week.

At this stage price action remains range bound within the 5-day range.

tech/a · 10 September 2009

I'm actually limiting my analysis to purely illusionary and subjective.
Why do you care Frank?

Frank D · 11 September 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

"Monday has a 'Mini Thrust' pattern because of Friday's close above
the Weekly 50%.

A mini Thrust pattern is a rally into the Weekly highs in the first two days
of this week.

If that rally occurs and price hits the Weekly highs by Tuesday, then
my expectation is that price will once again drift back down into the
Weekly 50% level by Friday. (Set-UP A)"...... 6th September report

Set-up A has finally played out, but not in the first two days.

At the start of the week the move was based on rising into these highs
in the first two days and then closing lower by Friday back around
the Weekly 50% level once again.

The 2nd part of the set-up to close back around the Weekly 50% level
has occurred too late in the trading week for the market to move all the
way back down, nevertheless the first stage of the set-up
has completed for this week.

Friday can follow a lower close around the 5-day 50% level, or it
can continue to move towards the September highs:- no probablility
on Friday's close.

This week's resistance 1043, but that resistance will shift based on
Friday's close.

Frank D · 14 September 2009

SPI Weekly and Primary Range filter

As per Weekly report, expectation of a 2-day reversal pattern from this week's higher open towards the 50% levels.

If the market is going to follow the September pattern upwards then
4488 should hold and then look for longs set-ups from Wednesday, helped
by US market set-ups.

Otherwise a 2-day reversal and close below 4488 normally continues
down.

Frank D · 15 September 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last week’s view was a mini thrust pattern into the Weekly highs and
a reversal back down into support.

S&P hit the highs on Friday and Monday started from a lower open at
support levels.

At this stage S&P looks to be continuing higher into and September highs
@ 1062

Frank D · 16 September 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

This week was about the 2-day stall reversal from last Friday’s highs, and
a continuation up towards September highs from Wednesday.

Today started with price above the 5-day 50% level @ 4572, but
confirmed with the HOOK pattern break above 4588 and rally into the
highs on Wednesday’s highs @ 4633.

Random resistance around this level, but I’m looking for higher prices
into September @ 4656, which could easily occur today.

Frank D · 19 September 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

S&P reached the September highs and has stalled around these levels (Thursday's highs)

S&P starting the week from a higher Weekly open and below the
September highs @ 1062, and normally I would look for a short-term
pullback the begin the trading week (2-day reversal)

However, unless the S&P breaks the 5-day 50% level on Monday, I'm
leaning towards a higher highs into Tuesday.

I won't have another ideal set-up until this month ends and the next
begins.

It's back to trading the 5-day patterns until September ends

Frank D · 23 September 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

I mentioned on Saturday that I was looking for higher moves in the S&P on Tuesday.

This was set-up with Monday’s early push down (higher Weekly open)
and late daily close above support. This price action of early selling and
then a higher daily close often sends markets higher with a
continuation towards the 5-day highs on the next day.

Once Monday's price action occurred the bias was to continue higher on
Tuesday towards the highs, but the follow through didn’t play out.

Normally what I would look for in this pattern would be a Tuesday UP day
into the 5-day highs and resistance with some selling, however the
5-day 50% level on Wednesday would then be the critical level, as this
often leads to a break resulting in a change of the Weekly trend into a
lower Friday close because we are already trading around higher
timeframe levels (September)

Because Tuesday hasn’t completed the move into resistance there is now
a bias to follow the Weekly range higher

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