AMT Model & Methodology

Frank D · 20 May 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-day cycle patterns and applying chart reading skills is based from my
first book and isn't mentioned in the 2nd, but Tuesday's trading is an example.

Tuesday high reversal pattern down from precise highs and moving down towards Monday's 3-day break @ 897.

Today is the first day of a 'stall' pattern to retest Monday's 3-day high break.

Next Probability needs to be defined after Wednesday's trading, and how
it reacts to 897.

It's hard to see more Upside due to the MAY high Resistance levels, but
at this stage I can't discount it going higher.

Frank D · 20 May 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Exact same pattern in the Aussie market after yesterday’s break above
3789 and gap closure from last week

Higher Daily open and back down to retest & verify the break:- exit and take profits.

Support & Weekly 50% level @ 3782-89

Now a bullish pattern will see some support around this level and
consolidate for the rest of today, and then continue higher from tomorrow.

I’m not expecting a bounce and rally off this level, because my view is
a lower daily close:- random length.

Frank D said:
That can be a 1 or 2 day stalling/reversal pattern above the 3-day
highs, which can then lead to a higher Weekly close.

However, a 1-2 day stalling pattern can also revisit the 3-day lows once
again.

But keep in mind if it’s a lower daily close, and Support can’t hold @ 3782, then it’s heading back down towards 3740 towards the 3-day lows (3716)

Frank D · 21 May 2009

DOW Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day 'stalling' pattern above the 3-day cycle highs has played out,
with precise movement between the levels of resistance and support.

This 2-day stall pattern above the 3-day highs would normally
continue higher into Friday:- retest breakout and verify the level,
and then price continues higher from a lower Daily open, which is
Thursday rising up from Support

But it's hard to have a view of how high price can go in the short-term
when price is already trading around the MAY highs:- higher
timeframe resistance.

Frank D · 23 May 2009

SPI Monthly (24 hour)

MAY high Resistance and continue to look for a pullback into the Monthly
50% levels.

I have an expectation of higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, as long as
the market remains above the 50% levels.

With 1 week to go until the end of the month, my
ideal pattern would be to see the monthly timeframe in MAY close around
the 50% levels.

If that's the case then the ideal pattern would be a lower Monthly
open around support and then have a 4 week pattern upwards and into
the 3rd Quarter

If Support breaks and closes below, then adjust to the market.

The Highest probability of a level failing is most likely in the last week of
the Month, so it's imperative that MAY doesn't close below support.

Frank D · 27 May 2009

S&P 500 Weekly & Monthly

With US markets rising up from Weekly 50% level support, and
probably heading towards the JUNE highs with only a few days left in
the month of MAY.

MAY resistance disappears and shifts higher in JUNE.

It doesn't look like my ideal pattern of retesting the Monthly 50%
levels before the next UP move is going to happen.

My longer term view remains that prices are rotating UP towards the Yearly 50% levels in
2009.

Frank D · 30 May 2009

DOW Futures:- Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets continue higher from Weekly support and closing on MAY
high resistance on the last day of the month.

Resistance now disappears and shifts higher, as part of a larger rotation
up towards the Yearly 50% levels.

Ideal long set-ups on Friday, as part of Weekly Hook patterns and
higher Friday closes using the 5-day 50% level.

Frank D · 1 June 2009

SPI Weekly (Day session)

SPI continues higher with another push up at the start of the Month.

Short-term target 3941
Medium term target 4042 (June highs)

Longer term target 4400 (Yearly 50% level)

Today:- 5-day breakout today @ 3859 should continue higher into Tuesday and complete the short-term move @ 3941.

Note: - longer term target can move towards 4400 in a text book
fashion following the monthly patterns, as what has occurred in March,
April, & MAY

But it can also continue to drive upwards, and breakout of JUNE highs
and complete the move into 4400 quicker than expected, simply because
the Financial Index hit MAY support levels last week.

Trend & support guide this month should be 3822.

Frank D · 2 June 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday there was a breakout of the Monday highs, along with
the expectation that price would continue up into Tuesday’s highs
around 3944.

There is a larger monthly trend pushing prices higher towards 4042, and
as explained can go higher.

Whenever there is a breakout of the 5-day range (Monday), the
normal pattern is that over the next 1-2 days price comes down and retests
the break @ 3873 and then continues upwards.

That should have started @ 3944, and it did with a 20-23 point
reversal down., but it didn't follow through

However, you know that you are fighting a losing trend today if it breaks
out of 3965.

Text book pattern is move down and retest the break.. but Monthly
trend is to continue up towards 4042+

You just don’t fight the trend above 3965 today, as it's going higher.

Frank D · 3 June 2009

SPI 5-day pattern & spiral filter

SPI trading above 3965 on Wednesday.

Whilst above 3965 price can continue towards 4021 as part of the move towards 4042 (June highs) by Thursday.

However, the 5-day pattern has changed from trading outside the
channels to back inside the channels @ 3988, which can often lead to
price rotation.

That was part of my view from yesterday, a move down over the next
2-days to retest the Monday’s break or the 5-day 50% level @ 3897.

Therefore 3988 is the trend guide either way.

The move up into 3988 and pull back down into 3965 today often suggests
that yesterday’s breakout has become valid support, and now
should hopefully continue higher:- retest the break and continue
towards Wednesday’s highs @ 4021

Using my spiral filter patterns I’m just simply trading on the side of 3973
and the risk level , and at this stage the bias is to continue higher but it needs to clear 3988,

And as long as I partial exit around this level and money manage the position either side of 3973.

Therefore I'm trading an each bet on Wednesday, either it goes up towards 4021, or it goes down after 3pm.

Frank D · 3 June 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI nearing June highs @ 4042, which completes the medium term move
this month, with a larger move still in play (4400)

We have a Weekly trending range since the start of this week, and
the thrust pattern upwards from 3822 along with a number of
'high probability patterns' in the 5-day range.

And Today was another.

SPI opened lower than expected today under 3965 but it eventually
played out precisely, as part of the JUNE move towards 4042.

The move into 3988 and then the push back down into 3965 to verify
the breakout, and then once above 3988 there was only 1 way to go,
and that was UP into Wednesday's highs @ 4021.

Frank D · 4 June 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Usual 5-day rotating patterns after moving into yesterday's highs @
4021.

Yesterday's trend guide was the breakout above 3965 but confirmed with
the move above 3988...

And today's reversal pattern was simply using the exact same level @ 3988

Footnote:- All good trends revisit the 50% levels and then
continue with the Trend.

It's now up to US markets to see whether price moves into 4042 and June highs, or continues the rotate down towards 3822 again.

Frank D · 5 June 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

Looks like June highs will be reached Today

Frank D · 6 June 2009

XJO Monthly (CASH MARKET)

Futures market failed to reach the JUNE highs @ 4042, whilst the CASH Market has hit the JUNE highs and stalled.

Higher Weekly open and around resistance can see a pullback towards
3796.

The strength of the trend in the 3rd Quarter it going to be dependant on
how price reacts to this level over the next few week.

I'm still bullish on the market towards 4400, but if the SPI is trading
below this level come July (3rd Quarter).....i'll have to reasses the market
in the 3rd Quarter as a multi-month sideways pattern

Frank D · 10 June 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

SPI heading back towards the June highs.

After a 2-day consolidation at the start of the week, which didn't see
much downside, today's move above the 5-day 50% level @ 3974 set up
a rally into Wednesday's highs.

Last 5-day high reversed down, helped by US markets having a down
night...

But this time I'm not factoring in a down day in the US, as they go
looking for their own JUNE highs.

Frank D · 12 June 2009

SPI Monthly (24 hour)

SPI June highs reached in sycom @ 4088.

Day session highs 4042

Based on repeating patterns I would begin to look for a rotation back
down into the Weekly 50% levels next week.

If the SPI is going to reverse down today and not have a 'higher Friday close' :- breakout.....

It should remain below 4070 today with a max move towards 4008
(5-day 50% level) on Friday.

However, i'm leaning to the SPI being supported once again around 4029, as
it was yesterday, and any continuation downward will be dependant on US markets on Friday and the direction they take.....

Eventually US markets will have to pop out of their tight sideways 5-day
pattern either way.

Frank D · 12 June 2009

SPI monthly and 5-day pattern

As per morning report, 4070 was the critical level on taking shorts today...

This was based on breakout and extend pattern from 4028 into 4070.

A bearish pattern will complete an entire 44 point rotation into 4028
and continue down into the 5-day 50% level @ 4008.

Bullish price action would see support around 4042, and a reversal
and breakout above 4070....

If that happens then there is a Friday upper move in sycom around to
4116.

But at this stage I would focus on price heading down towards next
week's Weekly 50% level, and run stops accordingly

skc · 12 June 2009

Frank D said:
SPI monthly and 5-day pattern

As per morning report, 4070 was the critical level on taking shorts today...

This was based on breakout and extend pattern from 4028 into 4070.

A bearish pattern will complete an entire 44 point rotation into 4028
and continue down into the 5-day 50% level @ 4008.

Bullish price action would see support around 4042, and a reversal
and breakout above 4070....

If that happens then there is a Friday upper move in sycom around to
4116.

But at this stage I would focus on price heading down towards next
week's Weekly 50% level, and run stops accordingly

Frank you sound like a god this morning.

EDIT: Sorry, I mean The GOD

Frank D · 12 June 2009

skc said:
Frank you sound like a god this morning.

EDIT: Sorry, I mean The GOD

Skc,

I just know my levels very well and trade accordingly, and I've said
it before, I'm a very good chart reader which helps greatly.

But like all 'chart-reading' there's an each way bet:- you've got to know when
to hold and when to fold within a multi-timeframe model.

SPI 5-day pattern & spiral filter

Whilst it's below 4070, along with the June highs it's going down into
the Weekly 50% level.

If the SPI moves up above 4078 this afternoon, there is a good bet that
the SPI will head towards Friday's highs @ 4105-16.

This time I've got a matching spiral filter, so hopefully this time it
continues down, but it won't surprise me to see higher prices either.

Trading above June highs @ 4042:- (day session)

Frank D · 16 June 2009

SPI Weekly and 5-day pattern

June high @ 4088 & reversal back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 3953 has played out.

This is the exact same pattern for the past 3 months.

This is the trend guide for this month, but there is still the potential
that prices are trying to pullback towards the 3rd Quarter 50% levels.

As per Weekly report, the September contracts running at a discount to
the SPOT, which often sees lower prices, and this was confirmed in the
US markets on Monday with a breakout of the 5-day lows and close
below the Weekly 50% levels, first time since March lows.

Frank D · 17 June 2009

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

On Monday was the first time in 3 months that there was a daily close
below the Weekly 50% level and the 5-day lows:- breakout.

And as per 5-day pattern breakouts, they extend down into the next
Day's lows.

At this stage prices are rotating back down into 3rd Quarter 50% levels in July.

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