US Political Conflict: The Odds of Smart Bipartisan Leadership Are Rising
The United States has become terribly split by big gaps in incomes, opportunities, and values that have led to political extremism that is reminiscent of the 1930-45 clashes between fascists and communists. This extremism has led to irreconcilable differences, dysfunctional government, and win-at-all-cost domestic power struggles that could lead to some sort of civil war. At the same time, the United States faces great challenges arising from 1) large and rapidly rising government debt that has led to the decreasing value of money (i.e., inflation), 2) great internal and political conflicts over how to deal with the large income, opportunity, and values gaps, 3) external conflicts over how the new world order should work, 4) costly and damaging climate changes, and 5) revolutionary changes in technologies that can either help or hurt us. All these challenges need to be well managed. For these reasons,
I believe that next year's US elections will be the most important in our lifetimes because their results will lead to either a) dysfunctional fighting that will take us over the edge or b) smart bipartisan leadership that will manage these challenges capably.
The Future
As I see it:
1) There is only one path to successful leadership in the United States and that is for there to be
strong, smart, bipartisan leadership that works against the extremists to pull the country together and make major reforms to the system so that it works well for most Americans.
2) If we don't get that, there is an uncomfortably high chance of some type of civil war with the extremists fighting and the moderates getting caught in the crossfire.
3) If either Donald Trump or Joe Biden is elected, it will be bad for the country because it will not give us the smart, bipartisan leadership that we need as the majority of Americans don’t want either of them as president. It is also clear from the polling that a majority don't want extremism.
4) The betting odds now strongly favor one of them being elected, though which of the two is anyone’s guess. In either case, I believe the election of either will sustain the extreme irreconcilable polarity that will lead to dysfunctional leadership and bad outcomes.
However, it now appears to me that there is an emerging dark horse possibility that my “dream scenario” could come to pass. To be clear, for my dream scenario to come true, there would have to be smart, bipartisan leadership
on both sides controlling their parties so that they operate in smart bipartisan ways. So, rather than rooting for any one candidate or any one side, I am rooting for smart bipartisanship on both sides.
Here is why I think the odds of this are improving. For it to happen, a few elements have to come together:
The Republicans Replacing Trump with a Strong Candidate Who Can Work across Party Lines
The senior Republicans who quietly pray that Trump won’t be the nominee and the candidates who are running against Trump have agreed that all the primary candidates except the leading one should drop out early — either after Iowa and New Hampshire or, maybe, after South Carolina — so that Super Tuesday and beyond will be a head-on fight. A lot of money is already being gathered to put behind the Trump alternative once he or she emerges. Then, the real primary race will begin.
While, to be clear, I am not endorsing anyone, I believe that
Nikki Haley is the most likely contender and I believe she fits the bill because she is very smart, very practical, has a great moral compass, and can work well across party lines. She also has a practical understanding of world affairs and domestic economic affairs gained by being the US ambassador to the UN and by creating economic development programs as governor of South Carolina. If she defeats Trump for the nomination, Goliath will have fallen, and everything will have changed.
The Democrats Replacing Biden with a Strong Candidate Who Can Work across Party Lines
This is a rising, but still very unlikely possibility. It is a rising possibility because on the Democratic side there is a growing realization that Biden could easily lose against a non-Trump candidate like Nikki Haley (and, possibly, to Trump, as well) and that he is probably too old to be up to the challenges of another term. It’s also clear that the electorate would rather pick his successor than have Kamala Harris, whose favorability is worse than Biden’s, replace him. Also, his policies related to debt, inflation, and foreign affairs have created dissatisfaction. So, the conversations about replacing Biden, though not advanced, are now happening. It remains a long shot possibility because Biden doesn’t want to step down and it’s late in the game to make such a change, but this very longshot possibility is emerging. Because of that,
there are already five contenders who are jockeying for position, one or two who would fit the bill of being reasonably smart, practical, and inclined to work well across party lines. Also, the Democrats have a smart, strong, and bipartisan House minority leader in Hakeem Jeffries who will almost certainly be on the other side of the Republican team in one way or another. For these reasons, the possibility of both Republicans and Democrats fielding smart teams that can work well across party lines and against the extremists doesn’t look so remote.
As you know, I am concerned about what is now happening in the context of the Big Cycle trends in 1) debt and the value of money, 2) internal conflict over wealth and values that is manifest in dysfunctional political conflict (particularly in the US), 3) external conflict over who will have what po