America a Failed State and a Rogue State to the rest of the World

kahuna1 · 4 May 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has, by far, done more damage to our economy than the 9/11 attacks. Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, ISIS, and others still dream of bringing our economy to a standstill. They will try to exacerbate the damage done by the coronavirus by striking us at home or abroad.

The terrorist networks see a historic opportunity in the coronavirus pandemic. A major attack, for example, against our electric grids could bring our tottering economy to its knees.

Our intelligence community has never been good at warning us of massive terror attacks. Even before it failed to warn us of the 9/11 attacks, the CIA has been ineffective in predicting and enabling the interdiction of significant events. It was as surprised when the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 as it was when the wall was built almost overnight in August 1961.

The president should demand that the intelligence community go on full alert against such an attack and bring to bear whatever resources may be needed. We have been lucky, since the 9/11 attacks, that it has been able to detect and enable us to interdict many such attacks. At this time of crisis, we need more than luck to see us through.

https://spectator.org/national-security-in-the-time-of-pandemic/

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

Are your eyes burning ?

That was from 23rd March ... and Now 6 weeks latter Trump is sounding if anything nuttier than the insane rubbish this person spewed.

Virtually no factual content or even close is why I tend not to read .... rubbish. Commies under the bed ? Terrorists under every rock !!

That's why people dont quote stuff out of the right of your chart. Pure idiotic BS.

kahuna1 · 4 May 2020

Please watch Americas number one News show ...

Its illuminating ....
It is all a hoax ? The virus. A political plot ?

Not edited ... no spin on it ... actual footage.

Would you buy drugs from people backing this ? Or bonds ? Or airplanes .... well when they stop them crashing ?

Every con man needs idiots to con. Every cult needs cult members.

USA is a failed state and sadly clearly displayed.

I might add Warren Buffets media empire is right of even this ... if you try and tax the rich. So too Gates and Bezos Washington post ... Bloomberg just spent 1 billion USD to stop tax hikes and decent healthcare ... so Warren did not win ... then when Sanders took over ... so he didn't win.

basilio · 4 May 2020

Response to reopening the US.
Let's try a thought experiment.

The death toll for COVID 19 is currently 2-2,500 per day. Current cumulative total(acknowledged) is 68k+. The infection rate is not falling - just going up and down at around 30,000 new infections a day. And lets remember these are are generally the ones that reach the hospitals. The serious illnesses.

The administration is wanting to relax the distancing regulations, allow/encourage business to start in earnest, encourage far more social interaction. And this is with 30,000 new infections a day already occurring.

So lets suggest the ongoing death rate stays at 2000 people a day. 60,000 a month. Another 300,000 dead by October. And that doesn't factor in hundreds of thousands more who survive but are left seriously ill. (1)

Who will these new victims be ?
Will they include Senators, Congressmen and various State politicians ?
Will they undermine the military ?
Will there be 20/30/50,000 deaths amongst the fervent evangelicals who are strongest in supporting Trump and coming to their weekly prayer sessions ?
Will the tens of thousands of Trump supporters who come to his rallies spread the virus ?
How many people will die in meatworks ? Will there simply be a revolving door of employees who fall sick and die and are replaced by new ones who also run that risk ?
Will the prisons and ICE compounds become centres of infection and kill thousands of inmates as well as infecting the staff ?
What will be the effect on critical infrastructure ? At what stage will these create a compounding problem ?
How will the financial markets both in the US an across the world view this type of unfolding trainwreck ? (2)
Given the fact that infections are still on the rise in many states how will relaxing social distancing magically result in maintaining or reducing the infection level ?
And finally. The premise of this thought experiment is anticipating deaths at less than the current daily average. What are the outcomes if death rates rise to 3 or 4,000 a day as infections, deaths and pressures on medical facilities intensify ?
What impact would 100,000 deaths a month have on the country ?

1) https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning

2) https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...are-worst-during-the-virus-crisis-51584742383

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-compare-causes-of-death/

Garpal Gumnut · 4 May 2020

basilio said:
Response to reopening the US.
The infection rate is not falling - just going up and down at around 30,000 new infections a day. And lets remember these are are generally the ones that reach the hospitals. The serious illnesses.

The administration is wanting to relax the distancing regulations, allow/encourage business to start in earnest, encourage far more social interaction. And this is with 30,000 new infections a day already occurring.

So lets suggest the ongoing death rate stays at 2000 people a day. 60,000 a month. Another 300,000 dead by October. And that doesn't factor in hundreds of thousands more who survive but are left seriously ill. (1)

Who will these new victims be ?

Will they include Senators, Congressmen and various State politicians ?

Will they undermine the military ?

Will there be 20/30/50,000 deaths amongst the fervent evangelicals who are strongest in supporting Trump and coming to their weekly prayer sessions ?

Will the tens of thousands of Trump supporters who come to his rallies spread the virus ?

How many people will die in meatworks ? Will there simply be a revolving door of employees who fall sick and die and are replaced by new ones who also run that risk ?

Will the prisons and ICE compounds become centres of infection and kill thousands of inmates as well as infecting the staff ?

What will be the effect on critical infrastructure ? At what stage will these create a compounding problem ?

How will the financial markets both in the US an across the world view this type of unfolding trainwreck ? (2)

Given the fact that infections are still on the rise in many states how will relaxing social distancing magically result in maintaining or reducing the infection level ?

And finally. The premise of this thought experiment is anticipating deaths at less than the current daily average. What are the outcomes if death rates rise to 3 or 4,000 a day as infections, deaths and pressures on medical facilities intensify ?

What impact would 100,000 deaths a month have on the country ?

1) https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning

2) https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...are-worst-during-the-virus-crisis-51584742383

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-compare-causes-of-death/

I'd agree @basilio . Trump does not understand the concept of exponential.

He is in charge and he is not very bright. Good at open houses and selling real estate.

Lousy at everything else.

gg

Joe90 · 4 May 2020

kahuna1 said:
Please watch Americas number one News show ...

Its illuminating ....
It is all a hoax ? The virus. A political plot ?

Ahhh, a balance has been restored. I feel better already.

Joe90
www.takethepiss.com.au

joeno · 5 May 2020

Rsthree said:
The book I read on Trump, I believe it was called 'Trump Revealed' essentially painted him as a Petty criminal, scammer and bully. Very interesting read, a shocker in fact.

I remember applying for a job during uni back around 2006. I thought it was a sales job until the "recruiter" showed me a video of Trump talking about how great it is to work there. The company? ACN (a MLM company aka a pyramid scheme company). The job? For me to pay them $$$ for the privilege to recruit others.

Link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACN_Inc.

But anyways to be fair to Trump he's just an average American idiot. I don't think he's evil. A lot of his actions are pushed by a much more sinister agenda which includes the CIA, establishment US politics, American media, and corporate interests. He's just the narcissistic mouthpiece.

aus_trader · 5 May 2020

Looking at the stock markets, it seems that the US has recovered the most and the rest of the world are lagging behind in the recovery or languishing near the bottoms.

But I fear that the US might be the Achilles Heel in the Global market recovery thanks to mismanagement of the situation, although they are leading with their FED backed stock market bounce at the moment...

qldfrog · 5 May 2020

aus_trader said:
Looking at the stock markets, it seems that the US has recovered the most and the rest of the world are lagging behind in the recovery or languishing near the bottoms.

But I fear that the US might be the Achilles Heel in the Global market recovery thanks to mismanagement of the situation, although they are leading with their FED backed stock market bounce at the moment...

Not talking about the emotional humane side of things but lockdown a la Europe or Australian way is an economic disaster, looking at figures only..
This is what the market should do, the less action the less wreckage.
.That would economically and financially make sense.
I think the US market is a half baked lockdown result and so should be less affected.
No one i know did a Business as usual response, would have been nice to compare economically.
So as much it is against my feelings, i do not think the US market will crash much more.
I have a very different view on the ASX as we have been and will be hit by a hurricane due to our economy.but realisation will come slowly especially if US market is up
Technically, my indicators are slowing but still up and my systems are reentering the market this week

kahuna1 · 5 May 2020

Overnight ...

Stock market rallied off lows.
USA DOUBLED the estimate of deaths.

Whist not using my computer model ..... June 2020 estimate now equals my own at 128 k .

It is absurd for the obvious flaw ... NO new and ongoing cases ... no second wave latter 2020. Some immunity has been bestowed for stupidity ?

One moment its this .... 72,433- estimate

The next the estimate is 134,475- not quite double but close ...

I have my doubts ... the model is rubbish ... because infections do NOT stop until a vaccine is found.

My doubts are due to the fact that say Connecticut with the highest GDP per capita in the USA for a state and a great healthcare system ... similar cases to other States which are poor, dirt poor for say Georgia and people with CV19 turning up in dire distress verses rich Connecticut and as such little one can do for those almost dead prior to being able to afford going to the hospital. One knows already Texas and Florida are cooking their numbers .... on deaths ... so too Georgia.

Look at the cases, the numbers of infected ... and well ... if one believes one does better without medical help early on in any instance your an idiot.

3rd Column over ... Deaths Texas at 908 .... verses Connecticut at 2,506 . Really ? Georgia same thing lets reports HALF or 40% of them !!

This is what failed states do ...
Failed in the sense of taking care of the MANY ...

Narrative is go back to work or starve. Georgia and I might add all states have shocking new infection numbers despite the BS about deaths. Everything is open in Georgia .... Florida refused 95% of all unemployment applications and as such if you were poor, either you work ... . or you starve. Are they kidding ? No ... sadly not. Back to work at Trump Resort Mara Lago ... please a burger with CV19 and a coke for that imbecile !!

Sigh ... its going to be slow and painful to watch as the USA kills 100,000 people, because it can, sadly even more than that.

kahuna1 · 5 May 2020

Americas policy is far worse than Sweden ...

Just to show how Trump ... Gates ... Buffet ... Bezos and the rest really care !!

USA without contact tracing ... actually rising infections ... BACK to WORK peasants.

NOW

bluekelah · 5 May 2020

basilio said:
Response to reopening the US.
Let's try a thought experiment.

The death toll for COVID 19 is currently 2-2,500 per day. Current cumulative total(acknowledged) is 68k+. The infection rate is not falling - just going up and down at around 30,000 new infections a day. And lets remember these are are generally the ones that reach the hospitals. The serious illnesses.

The administration is wanting to relax the distancing regulations, allow/encourage business to start in earnest, encourage far more social interaction. And this is with 30,000 new infections a day already occurring.

So lets suggest the ongoing death rate stays at 2000 people a day. 60,000 a month. Another 300,000 dead by October. And that doesn't factor in hundreds of thousands more who survive but are left seriously ill. (1)

Who will these new victims be ?

Will they include Senators, Congressmen and various State politicians ?

Will they undermine the military ?

Will there be 20/30/50,000 deaths amongst the fervent evangelicals who are strongest in supporting Trump and coming to their weekly prayer sessions ?

Will the tens of thousands of Trump supporters who come to his rallies spread the virus ?

How many people will die in meatworks ? Will there simply be a revolving door of employees who fall sick and die and are replaced by new ones who also run that risk ?

Will the prisons and ICE compounds become centres of infection and kill thousands of inmates as well as infecting the staff ?

What will be the effect on critical infrastructure ? At what stage will these create a compounding problem ?

How will the financial markets both in the US an across the world view this type of unfolding trainwreck ? (2)

Given the fact that infections are still on the rise in many states how will relaxing social distancing magically result in maintaining or reducing the infection level ?

And finally. The premise of this thought experiment is anticipating deaths at less than the current daily average. What are the outcomes if death rates rise to 3 or 4,000 a day as infections, deaths and pressures on medical facilities intensify ?

What impact would 100,000 deaths a month have on the country ?

1) https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/survivors-severe-covid-19-beating-virus-just-beginning

2) https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...are-worst-during-the-virus-crisis-51584742383

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-compare-causes-of-death/

350m population, 1% fatality means about 3.5m dead (best case scenario for now without lockdown and adequate hospital facilities.

aus_trader · 5 May 2020

qldfrog said:
Not talking about the emotional humane side of things but lockdown a la Europe or Australian way is an economic disaster, looking at figures only..
This is what the market should do, the less action the less wreckage.
.That would economically and financially make sense.
I think the US market is a half baked lockdown result and so should be less affected.
No one i know did a Business as usual response, would have been nice to compare economically.
So as much it is against my feelings, i do not think the US market will crash much more.
I have a very different view on the ASX as we have been and will be hit by a hurricane due to our economy.but realisation will come slowly especially if US market is up
Technically, my indicators are slowing but still up and my systems are reentering the market this week

You could be right as well, I just don't know. If everything is done to prop up the stock market in terms of FED actions and the leadership actions well it is working, at least for the time being. We can look at the US markets in disbelief, but human toll is not a factor that drives stock markets. It's the amount of money printing by the FED that can be used to buy the market either directly or indirectly via investment banks.

Anyway it is what it is, so I won't argue. As a well respected ASF member said either in this thread or another thread: it might take the loss of a high profile figure or their immediate family in the billionaire club for the funds and efforts to be directed to where it's actually needed in the real economy at ground level.

Good to hear that you are also re-entering stocks. I have also only just started buying ASX stocks, very cautiously and selectively. I have added another stock today that may be less affected economically in these times because they are an essential service provider. Will update my 'spec portfolio' in the evening with this purchase. For members interested, ASF thread for that portfolio is Speculative Stock Portfolio.

qldfrog · 5 May 2020

bluekelah said:
350m population, 1% fatality means about 3.5m dead (best case scenario for now without lockdown and adequate hospital facilities.

From a heartless economist view, the million death will be mostly aged or even retired, poorer ;these deaths will trigger assets rotation and money flow.
Wealth transfer toward younger and more money spending generations
It is actually a GDP godsent...
So the us market could get a boost

qldfrog · 5 May 2020

bluekelah said:
350m population, 1% fatality means about 3.5m dead (best case scenario for now without lockdown and adequate hospital facilities.

From a heartless economist view, the million death will be mostly aged or even retired, poorer ;these deaths will trigger assets rotation and money flow.
Wealth transfer toward younger and more money spending generations
It is actually a GDP godsent...
So the US market could get a boost with genuine reasons especially if China conflicts generate more domestic industry boost
But we as asx have no such luck

Humid · 5 May 2020

It gets more heartless

aus_trader · 5 May 2020

I don't think we should have such a grim view of our own country.

We Aussies are the 2nd best on Earth after New Zealand taking the 1st prize in managing the situation as best as possible with least numbers of deaths and only a moderate period of shut downs. Hopefully... back to normal soon for us. Great for NZ already for beating the disease and slowly but surely re-opening the country.

There is no reason that we could start up some manufacturing base if we were forced to do so. We used to be a great manufacturing nation you know. Now we only mine minerals and build homes. Still better than nothing I suppose.

I am doing my part. Buying Aussie made whenever possible and making bite sized purchases of selective Aussie companies.

Garpal Gumnut · 5 May 2020

qldfrog said:
From a heartless economist view, the million death will be mostly aged or even retired, poorer ;these deaths will trigger assets rotation and money flow.
Wealth transfer toward younger and more money spending generations
It is actually a GDP godsent...
So the us market could get a boost

I believe the fallout in social capital which is already at a low ebb in the USA will negate any boost to the market or to GDP.

Covid-19 will affect the unwell, poor and minorities more than the very rich and capable.

Short term there will be a boost to their economy, if, and it's a big if, the US Coronavirus curve flattens next month.

Lots of nutters with lots of guns do not for a good life make. No matter how much money one has.

gg

qldfrog · 5 May 2020

aus_trader said:
I don't think we should have such a grim view of our own country.

We Aussies are the 2nd best on Earth after New Zealand taking the 1st prize in managing the situation as best as possible with least numbers of deaths and only a moderate period of shut downs. Hopefully... back to normal soon for us. Great for NZ already for beating the disease and slowly but surely re-opening the country.

There is no reason that we could start up some manufacturing base if we were forced to do so. We used to be a great manufacturing nation you know. Now we only mine minerals and build homes. Still better than nothing I suppose.

I am doing my part. Buying Aussie made whenever possible and making bite sized purchases of selective Aussie companies.

We can not and the ASX can notsustain the current economy if the only activity left is mining coal and iron for China with decreasing needs
economy was not great with tourists and o/s students, now we just have mining and agriculture

aus_trader · 6 May 2020

qldfrog said:
We can not and the ASX can notsustain the current economy if the only activity left is mining coal and iron for China with decreasing needs
economy was not great with tourists and o/s students, now we just have mining and agriculture

There is a real slow down I agree and it won't be firing on all cylinders any time soon...

qldfrog, perhaps this is a wake up call to our nation we can't just export bulk commodities and expect to be globally competitive. Perhaps this is time to be innovative like in the past when we invented the Hills hoist, Victa lawn mower, Black Box Flight recorder and the Bionic Ear.

Locally, here is some talk of cutting back restrictions and allowing a slow recovery. If we can just get to no new cases (which we almost got to) as NZ has then a lot of local industries can start up. Today Qantas chief Alan Joyce was optimistic towards starting up local interstate travel as soon as we achieve that. The prices are mouth watering too when he mentioned $19 flights b/w Melb-Syd and $29 flights b/w other states. Then if the country is safe for local travellers there will be international travel with our neighbour NZ. Other nations may have to prove themselves before international travel could resume as normal, so that could be a fair way off.

noirua · 6 May 2020

Status Report of U.S. Government Gold Reserve
March 31, 2020
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/gold-report/current.html

The United States has
261,498,926.241 fine troy ounces

Total - U.S. Government Gold Reserve
The value is approximately $11,041,059,957.90 book value

At US$1,700 per ounce the true book value is US$445,481,742,000

America a Failed State and a Rogue State to the rest of the World

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