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ALK - Alkane Resources

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Further to previous post, ASCI has issued monthly report tonight, and recommends subscribers sell ALK along with a couple of other stocks. I personally think this is premature as this stock is a good prospect.

Might present good buying opportunity
 
Fats had a spec buy on ALK last month.
Volume again today is huge almost 5mil before lunch, huge amount was taken out in seconds at 80 cents now trading at 80 cents with VWAP 77.2.
Interesting stock alright, have set stop just in case but expect to make some money here on the thing going up again.
 
Has been rising up towards 52w high again over the last 5 days.

I have not seen the recent AFR article, or MF Global report ?

Mentions of a takeover possibility?


I have done some research on Yttrium and Zircon supply.

Y in particular is absolutely critical to obtain security of supply, as there is only 1 other possible supplier worldwide outside China.

Y is mainly used in compact flouresecents.

Y cannot be replaced in other uses including flatscreen TV, superconductors and defence applications.

General Electric need supply.

The Zircon situation, in short, is that current producers have declining reserves
and no new major projects in the pipeline. Demand is rising

Assets at Dubbo, not some godforsaken outback or African hellhole.

I didnt mention their gold assets, or other semi-rare earth

recent company update well worth a read, plus some good prior posts here
 
GumbyLearner said:
Have ALK identified Dysprosium at any of their drilling sites?
Click to expand...

Yes

2 new broker reports available on the ALK website dated 23/3

http://www.alkane.com.au/reports/broker-media/

With regard to both Dyprosium and Yttrium, take a gander at page 12, figure 8 & 9
of the Petra report.

very high relative percentages, compared to peers

these 2 elements are presently almost unobtainable outside China

After digesting these 2 reports, I am probably more excited about ALK than other REE stocks I hold.

(Although I consider Zirconium to be the biggest slice)..pay particular attention the the correlation graph between oil and zirconia products

I strongly expect the BFS will recommend Expanded Case of 1mpta,
and unless things go seriously pear-shaped in the world economy again,
financing & offtake should be straightforward.

So waiting for BFS, due July to put a booster rocket under SP
 
An update and correction.

In my previous post I mentioned a BFS for the DZP, should have been a DFS of course

All those silly letters

never mind, the SP is up from 1.60 last post to 2.14 high today, over 32%

seems only yesterday was buying <$1

There is also an update by Petra on the Alkane website

Should be taken with a grain of salt I suppose, as they are the sponsoring broker...does read more like an advertorial really..anyway excerpts


*NPV A$5.15
*multiples-forward pe 2-3x
*capital payback-less than 2.5 years.

potentially

If I wasnt too lazy to post charts, would have stuck this up on breakout thread ages ago, there seems to be a shortage of sellers too

Have done some research on Niobium, and as with most commodities, Chinese demand is the driver, mainly used for pipeline and structural steel (60%), but 20% for auto use, and this is likely to grow in percentage terms as weight savings are the name of the game, and niobium-steel is strong and flexible, so less can be used.

On the supply side, Brazil has 85% of the market, and is tied up with China.
This could mean other users seek alternative supply, such as ALK
 
awg said:
If I wasnt too lazy to post charts, would have stuck this up on breakout thread ages ago,
Click to expand...

I did it for you on post 68 above awg, this is my best performing holding at the moment
 


And they just keep on motoring...
I took profit off the table last week after the exponential rise, which seems to be maintained to todays close. How long can they keep this up? I have been trying to lock in profits but this has made a goose of me, it just keeps running!
Congrats to all holders, looking solid so far with rising average volume
 
This is the view I am using on ALK at the moment, fits an EW pattern which may be useful for targets.
I did enter on a Metastock breakout but that just gets you into the trade.

ALK did hesitate at the 'Min W3' and again at the 'Typ W3' which tends to add confidence to this pattern being correct.
Now just a matter of hoping it gets to its next target around $3, if not its been a great run.
When it does correct (W.4) there may be another possibly worthwhile up leg to go.

The pattern I am using below which may be completely wrong

(click to expand)
 

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Boggo said:
Now just a matter of hoping it gets to its next target around $3, if not its been a great run.
When it does correct (W.4) there may be another possibly worthwhile up leg to go.
Click to expand...

Well it didn't make the $3 but we were prepared for that and the ensuing W.4 correction.
Nice pivot turn and the low of the "A" taken out today so we should be looking for a W.5 target now.

Sometimes it pays to just monitor individual stocks especially if they seem to be predictable, still got to be prepared for it all to go pear shaped at any time though

(click to expand)
 

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Interesting Boggo,
I have taken artistic license to your graph (could call it vandalism hope you don't mind) and done some forecasting, the thing that economists are so great at.
This is a very accurate prediction using my commodore 64 once again.
The next down is equivalent in size to previous, and the support is obvious. If it breaks that, it will be 1.20, if it bounces then back to $2.
(Maybe ASF should introduce a monthly chart forecasting competition with a box of x by x to pick the EOM SP)



I do not intend to make light of the fact that ALK has come back a fair bit lately and wish all holders good luck with further progress of ALK.
 

No problems whatsoever mr jeff, what I am showing is just one of many ways to view this particular stock. I am leaning to this type of analysis in this case as it played by the rules and has been a profitable exercise so far.

What you have drawn would coincide with a more complex W.4 which is often the case, the critical point at the moment on the current pattern is the low of the "A" on my chart.

My entry trigger was the high of the bar prior to the most recent low and and you can probably work out where I would get spooked.

Have a look at the daily chart of the XAO for comparison with your drawn projection
I was going to post a chart of that in the XAO thread but the usual suspects would ruin any analysis discussion
 
Its still going Mr Jeff, would like to have seen it close above $2.36 but I suspect that next Monday's market may drag it down a bit anyway.

There are a handful of stocks such as this continuing to make profits for active participants in a difficult market.

(click to expand)
 

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looks like the o'farrell govt has taken the PMs line and changed the rules for uranium sales from NSW

this should be a huge boost for ALKs 'DUBBO ZIRCONIA PROJECT', as previously the uranium content of their rare earth deposit would have had to have been re-buried as a waste product after the refinement process because of the export ban.

not only does this decision give them a new revenue stream from the project, but it will also cut the costs of having to safely despose of the 'waste' uranium by-product.....

ALK is one to watch IMO.... yes i do hold Alk stock, and if i had the spare cash i'd be buying more now after this announcement, but alas, i dont have spare funds at the mo'....DOH!
 
Interesting and thanks for the update on that.

Haven't been watching recently and not sure on the status of their projects. I note that ARU and LYC have not been great lately and guess that this hasn't helped enthusiasm for ALK in recent times.



Pulled back a lot. May be offer a good entry at 1.25 if it starts to move. Will have a bit of a look shortly for any new updates. Quite a decent bit of volume recently too, but has turned away from that 1.25 level.

Boggo - looks like you really nailed that trade last year, well done - I was well off the mark there.
Now what are your thoughts - consolidation, nothing of interest yet ?

Cheers.
 
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