ALK - Alkane Resources

[Sean K]

and here it is.... some 48 pp
.
ALK is pleased to announce its Scoping Study for the Boda-Kaiser Project.

The Boda-Kaiser Project is a large gold-copper porphyry system in Central West NSW with potential for a long-term bulk-tonnage mining and processing operation. To understand the project economics and potential economies of scale from different-sized operations, and identify a potential pathway to development, Alkane has evaluated three possible scenarios:
• Mining and processing 20 million tonnes of ore per annum
• Mining and processing 10 million tonnes of ore per annum
• Mining and processing 5 million tonnes of ore per annum

Evaluation shows that the largest development scenario is the highest value due to the potential economies of scale. Given its positive economics, the 10 million tonnes per annum development could form part of a staged build for a larger project, or as a standalone project in a rising gold and copper price environment. It is unlikely that a 5 million tonnes per annum development would meet Alkane’s investment return hurdles at current gold and copper prices.

The considered underground mining option uses a Long Hole Open Stoping mining method, consistent with Alkane’s experience at its Tomingley Gold Operations. Given that a high throughput is beneficial to the project economics, future studies will evaluate the potential for sub-level caving or a similar bulk tonnage underground method.

I think the Capex is going to scare some punters. $2b. Yikes.

 

[mullokintyre]

Yeaa, that is a hell of a CAPEX, and as we know, most likely to be significantly higher than that if and when it actually happens.
Will forget about this one for a while.
Cannot see where the SP increase will come from from.
Tomingley will need to keep bringing in cash.
I suspect it will just become another of those stocks that management keep going to milk as much as they can for themselves.

Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Yeaa, that is a hell of a CAPEX, and as we know, most likely to be significantly higher than that if and when it actually happens.
Will forget about this one for a while.
Cannot see where the SP increase will come from from.
Tomingley will need to keep bringing in cash.
I suspect it will just become another of those stocks that management keep going to milk as much as they can for themselves.

Mick

Just finished listening to BTL on this project.
His analysis just cannot make it stack up.
Sensitive to a lot of things, CAPEX high, overall grades poor, generally just does not stack up.
So its goodbye to ALK, there are others who may provide more excitement.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Just finished listening to BTL on this project.
His analysis just cannot make it stack up.
Sensitive to a lot of things, CAPEX high, overall grades poor, generally just does not stack up.
So its goodbye to ALK, there are others who may provide more excitement.
Mick

Where it will stack up is increasing the tonnage to look more like a Cadia. Low grade yes, but super long term. I think I've said 20Moz AuEq before so another 5M needed. I'm not sure if the current loads will do the trick so another discovery might be required. Porphyrys come in groups so it's possible. Might just take one random 1km DD hole along strike to do it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Where it will stack up is increasing the tonnage to look more like a Cadia. Low grade yes, but super long term. I think I've said 20Moz AuEq before so another 5M needed. I'm not sure if the current loads will do the trick so another discovery might be required. Porphyrys come in groups so it's possible. Might just take one random 1km DD hole along strike to do it.

Possible, but there are other things that will have a better chance of making me some money, which is what the game is all about..
Took position in CEL and lining up for Liberty gold on LSE overnight.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Took position in CEL
Mick

Yikes! Good luck!! I haven't dollar cost average on this since May 22. Very short term, today is interesting. Maybe I should be thinking about it a bit more myself.

 

[mullokintyre]

The annual report out, and as feared is a tad underwhelming.
NTA went up, tthe gold final sale price went up, thats the only good part.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

I should have put this tabloe in from the annual report.
Obviously a huge increase in costs, especially when comparing the heady year of 2022 when the good money was made.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Updated MRE.
11% increase in reserves.
It still does not alleviate the very large CAPEX required to get thi going.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Updated MRE.
11% increase in reserves.
It still does not alleviate the very large CAPEX required to get thi going.
Mick


View attachment 183668

Not sure where they're going to get the $1.8b in Capex for Boda with a company EV of $250m.

Maybe that's not the plan and they'll JV or sell it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Quarterly out, and its business as usual.
the expansion plans are going along with most of the capex done.
Really needs gold in AUD to push above the $4000 mark to provide some decent cash flow, but even then it will not have any hope of Generating enough to begin the 2 bill capex build at Bod/kaiser.
Will have to have outside involvement.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Quarterly out, and its business as usual.
the expansion plans are going along with most of the capex done.
Really needs gold in AUD to push above the $4000 mark to provide some decent cash flow, but even then it will not have any hope of Generating enough to begin the 2 bill capex build at Bod/kaiser.
Will have to have outside involvement.
Mick

ALK up 5% today on abiove average volume.
Now why would someone be suddenly get a good chunk of ALK today?
Mick

 

[rcw1]

Good evening

Just having a peak at this one.

15 minute

 

[mullokintyre]

Bought a few more today.
I expect they will be generating some good cash this quarter givng the price of gold in AUD is so high.
Mick

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Gold is good

ALK is a stock which rcw1 has entered into the yearly ASF competitions - FYI @mullokintyre

Bell Potter has a buy rating and $1.10 price target on ALK. Should this be believed and holds true, with current SP being $0.53 there is obviously potential for a nice upside for investors over the next 12 months.
Daily Chart

Tomingley had another solid quarter with production meeting forecast. The main ore source continues to be from Roswell. The four new CAT 2900XE loaders arrived on site and have been commissioned. Whilst only a small portion of the overall reserve has been mined the initial grade reconciliations from Roswell are performing well, with a positive reconciliation of 14%.

A total of 18,418 ounces of gold was poured for the quarter. The site cash costs for the quarter (to 30 Sept 2024) were A$1,840/oz with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,182/oz.

FY2025 guidance for Tomingley of 70,000oz to 80,000oz production at an AISC of A$2,400/oz to $2,600/oz remains unchanged. The AISC guidance reflects a one-off increase in decline development that is accounted as sustaining capital and included in the AISC.

Gold sold for the quarter was 18,208 ounces at an average sales price of A$3,422/oz, generating revenue of A$62.3m. Bullion stocks were 2,704 ounces (fair value of A$10.3m at quarter end). The site’s operating cash flow was A$19.2m for the quarter.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[mullokintyre]

I have chosen ALK in the yearly comp because I am permanently bullish on gold.
Like COL, I have this one in my SMSF with real money.
I expect the AUD to fall further or at least remain at these lower levels, so the price of gold in AUD will remain high.
ALK like other Oz producers should be able to generate some good cash.
They are also ramping up production at Boda and Kaiser , and once the CAPEX is finished will also improve cash flow.
Expecting untold riches from ALK.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

ALK released its quarterly this morning.
Market reaction was to knock 5% off the SP.
Kinda surprised, as I thought most of it was unsurprisng.
Perhaps people put off by the high AISC, but when gold is over $4,000 AUD, they can still pull in some good money.
Guidance for the year unchanged, commissioning of the past plant on track, most of the upgrade CAPEX completed.
Not sure what the market did not like.
Mick

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Announcement on 21/01/25 (see attached):

• Core drilling results from targets below the open cut resource at the San Antonio deposit suggest a steep plunge to potential underground mineable mineralisation. Significant gold intercepts include:

SAR003D 3 metres grading 1.79g/t Au from 273 metres; incl 1 metre grading 2.43g/t Au from 274 metres; and 2 metres grading 5.03g/t Au from 416 metres; and 1 metre grading 2.98g/t Au from 464 metres.
SAR004D 1 metre grading 2.78g/t Au from 334 metres; and 6 metres grading 1.37g/t Au from 711 metres; incl 1 metre grading 2.44g/t Au from 711 metres; also 1 metre grading 2.34g/t Au from 713 metres.

• The San Antonio gold resource has over 1km of continuous strike length and remains largely undrilled at depth beneath the planned open cuts. Additional drilling is planned to test down-dip of several high-grade domains in fertile host rocks such as andesites, monzodiorites and dacites.

• Regional exploration around Tomingley has restarted for 2025. Exploration comprises of a first-pass 17,000m program of aircore drilling across recently identified buried volcanic rocks and structures interpreted from drone magnetic surveys. RC and diamond core drilling is planned to test El Paso, Tomingley Two and new targets identified by Alkane’s previous work. This is expected to total ~3,200m of drilling.

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