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One of those stocks that likes to buck the broader trend. Or is something up here?
AGO - Atlas Iron
- Thread starter weston
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Interesting SP movements. Will be good buying around 70-75c, if it happens. HC talking about a bounce, so probably lower ahead.
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![2013-09-16 12_12_05-AmiBroker - [AGO - ATLAS IRON LIMITED - Daily].png](https://aussiestockforums.b-cdn.net/data/attachments/47/47985-70a7acfb563bab5629d73b94953faa0c.jpg)
pixel
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Good luck, GB
Question is though: Will the line stay broken? I have a slightly different line for falling resistance, that had been broken a couple of times recently, but AGO kept dropping back below. The (MACD) momentum is still toying with the Bullish promise; unless that's sorted, I'll only play short-term swingers.
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Thanks pixel. I've been tracking the sentiment on HC and the last few days it's been much more positive regarding broker upgrades and news releases. It certainly needs to close at or above 90.5c for the real deal... or rail deal.
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What a dog. Massive sells going through since yesterday. Out.
[edit] And seconds later a trading halt. This will be very timely or very untimely.
[edit] And seconds later a trading halt. This will be very timely or very untimely.
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Country Lad
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Funny, my tea leaves were saying the opposite, but then the tea leaves reading has always been more reliable than HC.
And the lesson for today is
Cheers
Country Lad
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Big move in price today just after lunch.No announcements to market though that I am aware of. Anybody have any ideas why jumped. I own some ago.
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Breakout on the weekly.
pixel
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Yesterday's P&V move may well have been technically motivated. Even the ASX was puzzled by the P&V spike. Let's see how today's Market reacts to AGO's routine "We have no idea why..." response.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displ...;idsId=01451937
In early August, the Weekly chart has signaled an end to the years-long price decline; but it's been sideways from there and may still repeat a similar 5-months consolidation, with disappointing outcome, that ran from September last year.
Latest Comsec recommendation report -
STRONGER CHINESE STEEL SUPPORTS HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES
• Following our recent China tour, CBA has revised up its CY13 Chinese steel production forecast
from 749Mt to 783Mt. We have also revised up CY14 Chinese steel from 781Mt to 822Mt. Please
refer to a separate Commodity Strategy note, published on 27 September 2013.
• The additional 40Mt of Chinese steel production in CY14 will consume an additional 65Mt of iron ore
production. This will absorb a significant proportion of the new 100Mt of seaborne supply which is
expected from Australia in CY14.
• The net effect is that less high-cost Chinese domestic iron ore supply will be rationed out of the
market and the market clearing price for iron ore will be higher. We upgrade CY14 from USD107/t to
USD120/t and CY15 from USD100/t to USD108/t.
SIGNIFICANT EARNINGS UPGRADES FOR ALL IRON ORE COMPANIES
• The new commodity price forecasts result in the largest upgrades to BHP and RIO earnings
forecasts for three years; 14-20% in 2014 and 10-11% in 2015.
• FMG’s operating leverage is higher and the upgrades are more substantial; 51% in FY14 and 46% in
FY15. More importantly, FMG is now strongly free cash flow positive (USD2.5b in FY14 and
USD3.8b in FY15) and will begin to rapidly reduce its excessively high debt levels.
• Upgrades to the juniors are even more substantial, given their higher costs and lower margins. Full
details are in Figure 2.
Figure 1: Iron ore equities - recommendations and price targets
Price Price Target Upside Recommendation
Company ASX (A$) (A$)
BHP Billiton BHP 35.31 43.00 22% Overweight
Rio Tinto RIO 60.29 71.00 18% Neutral
Fortescue Metals FMG 4.78 5.50 15% Overweight
Atlas Iron AGO 0.85 1.43 69% Overweight
Western Desert Resources WDR 0.68 1.05 55% Overweight
Centaurus Metals CTM 0.17 0.32 93% Overweight
BC Iron BCI 4.44 6.01 35% Overweight
Mount Gibson MGX 0.72 0.62 -13% Underweight
Gindalbie Metals GBG 0.13 0.10 -23% Underweight
Source: IRESS, CBA estimates
INVESTMENT VIEW
• We maintain Overweight recommendations on BHP and FMG and Neutral on RIO. The diversified
miners will generate higher free cash flow over the next 2-3 years as volumes rise, costs reduce and
capex is pulled back.
• Of the junior iron ore producers, our preference is for BC Iron and Atlas Iron. We also like the new
project upside in WDR and CTM.
STRONGER CHINESE STEEL SUPPORTS HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES
• Following our recent China tour, CBA has revised up its CY13 Chinese steel production forecast
from 749Mt to 783Mt. We have also revised up CY14 Chinese steel from 781Mt to 822Mt. Please
refer to a separate Commodity Strategy note, published on 27 September 2013.
• The additional 40Mt of Chinese steel production in CY14 will consume an additional 65Mt of iron ore
production. This will absorb a significant proportion of the new 100Mt of seaborne supply which is
expected from Australia in CY14.
• The net effect is that less high-cost Chinese domestic iron ore supply will be rationed out of the
market and the market clearing price for iron ore will be higher. We upgrade CY14 from USD107/t to
USD120/t and CY15 from USD100/t to USD108/t.
SIGNIFICANT EARNINGS UPGRADES FOR ALL IRON ORE COMPANIES
• The new commodity price forecasts result in the largest upgrades to BHP and RIO earnings
forecasts for three years; 14-20% in 2014 and 10-11% in 2015.
• FMG’s operating leverage is higher and the upgrades are more substantial; 51% in FY14 and 46% in
FY15. More importantly, FMG is now strongly free cash flow positive (USD2.5b in FY14 and
USD3.8b in FY15) and will begin to rapidly reduce its excessively high debt levels.
• Upgrades to the juniors are even more substantial, given their higher costs and lower margins. Full
details are in Figure 2.
Figure 1: Iron ore equities - recommendations and price targets
Price Price Target Upside Recommendation
Company ASX (A$) (A$)
BHP Billiton BHP 35.31 43.00 22% Overweight
Rio Tinto RIO 60.29 71.00 18% Neutral
Fortescue Metals FMG 4.78 5.50 15% Overweight
Atlas Iron AGO 0.85 1.43 69% Overweight
Western Desert Resources WDR 0.68 1.05 55% Overweight
Centaurus Metals CTM 0.17 0.32 93% Overweight
BC Iron BCI 4.44 6.01 35% Overweight
Mount Gibson MGX 0.72 0.62 -13% Underweight
Gindalbie Metals GBG 0.13 0.10 -23% Underweight
Source: IRESS, CBA estimates
INVESTMENT VIEW
• We maintain Overweight recommendations on BHP and FMG and Neutral on RIO. The diversified
miners will generate higher free cash flow over the next 2-3 years as volumes rise, costs reduce and
capex is pulled back.
• Of the junior iron ore producers, our preference is for BC Iron and Atlas Iron. We also like the new
project upside in WDR and CTM.
Country Lad
Off into the sunset
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Looking back yes you were correct. Went on with it, formed a flag the broke out of that.
Cheers
Country Lad
Current Comsec recommendation
EMERGING IRON ORE PRODUCERS – MAKING
HAY
IRON ORE CONTINUES TO POSITIVELY SURPRISE
• The emerging iron ore companies have outperformed the market in the September quarter, thanks to
strength in iron ore prices and strong execution of new projects.
AGO PRESSING AHEAD TO 12MTPA, WDR CONTINUES TO HIT MILESTONES
•
Atlas Iron:
AGO continues to push ahead with its growth ambitions. Abydos has come into
production and Mt Webber will lift production to 12mtpa in 2014. Exploration results at Corunna
Downs are encouraging. FMG is considering increasing production beyond 155mt, so AGO’s port
allocation at Port Hedland will have value in negotiating a rail solution for Horizon 2.
AGO price target $1.43
EMERGING IRON ORE PRODUCERS – MAKING
HAY
IRON ORE CONTINUES TO POSITIVELY SURPRISE
• The emerging iron ore companies have outperformed the market in the September quarter, thanks to
strength in iron ore prices and strong execution of new projects.
AGO PRESSING AHEAD TO 12MTPA, WDR CONTINUES TO HIT MILESTONES
•
Atlas Iron:
AGO continues to push ahead with its growth ambitions. Abydos has come into
production and Mt Webber will lift production to 12mtpa in 2014. Exploration results at Corunna
Downs are encouraging. FMG is considering increasing production beyond 155mt, so AGO’s port
allocation at Port Hedland will have value in negotiating a rail solution for Horizon 2.
AGO price target $1.43
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Waiting for something to trigger this. Might come soon.
tinhat
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Big sell-off today. 17 million shares traded already (12:30pm) and down over 6%.
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Looks like the recent support of $1.085 has now become the resistance (after today's action).
The candle yesterday, broke through and closed below the 200ema.
The candle yesterday, broke through and closed below the 200ema.
The price is now at $0.97 after falling 6.5 cents on Friday. That is a big fall. I suppose it is a one trick pony relying on the iron ore into China, hence the price. (?)
It appears to have long term prospects. The business still looks sound with low debt and cash in hand plus proven mineral reserves.
It appears to have long term prospects. The business still looks sound with low debt and cash in hand plus proven mineral reserves.
