AGO - Atlas Iron
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- ago atlas iron
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Clearly Iron Oar prices are going to fall below 42/45 per ton which would put debtless Atlas on the back foot after todays report!!
or perhaps it's about to make a bid for BHP
Really
or perhaps it's about to make a bid for BHP
Really
I don't know what the problem with AGO is....
It's cash positive
It's book value is $2.11
It's gonna double its iron ore production next year.
It's a takeover target...
Yet I seem to be catching a falling knife, and have lost lots of money on this stock. My average cost is now $2.71 per share, with lots of shares....
Investors concerned about the capital costs with the rail construction maybe?
It's cash positive
It's book value is $2.11
It's gonna double its iron ore production next year.
It's a takeover target...
Yet I seem to be catching a falling knife, and have lost lots of money on this stock. My average cost is now $2.71 per share, with lots of shares....
Investors concerned about the capital costs with the rail construction maybe?
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It's an over-reaction to the price of Iron Ore IMO. As soon as Chinese PMI recovers and their infrastructure stimulus kicks in, this will climb.
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It is the tell tale story with Atlas Iron came through financial results
http://www.businessday.com.au/busin...ut-an-iron-ore-price-rise-20120827-24wkf.html
Their project is headed by some one who has never delivered a project but too many studies in Engenium . Many of those studies were desk top. Further the next level people are very inexperienced to manage consultants or contractors. Insult to injury, the consultant engaged to manage the projects has commissioned some one is very talented except never delivered a project.
With such a high stake on capital investment with Atlas, the rewards are far fetched to be seen. Now with iron ore prices going to plummet further , next year for AGO I am afraid will not exceed recent performances (or lack of it)
DNH
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Iron oar blow off low?
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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I have been watching this one with interest. I haven't done many actual sums yet but am getting close to doing a full review. Does anyone know what their marginal cost of production is?
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From memory it's between 46 and 48
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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China Infrastructure stocks just went through the roof on plans
CSR %8.75
China Railway %7.10
China Rail Const. %6.5
CSR %8.75
China Railway %7.10
China Rail Const. %6.5
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Hmmm Trading Halt... an acquisition maybe?
pixel
DIY Trader
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nothing that dramatic:
AGO secured a US$ Loan to fund an expansion; they also promised cost savings.
A little later, the Quarterlies came out too.
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcements.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=ago&timeframe=D&period=W
Read all 3 reports before Open - they'll resume trading with group 1.
tinhat
Pocket Calculator Operator
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wow - the iron ore miners are all over the place this morning. BCI, MGX up, RIO, BHP, AGO down.
Massive volume being traded in AGO this morning. 3.4m shares and we aren't through the opening hour yet. What do people make of that after the big day AGO had yesterday (2.5m shares traded)?
Massive volume being traded in AGO this morning. 3.4m shares and we aren't through the opening hour yet. What do people make of that after the big day AGO had yesterday (2.5m shares traded)?
tinhat
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Sorry, cancel my last post. I misread my chart. Average daily volume traded (past 22 days) is circa 11 million per day. Yesterday's volume was 25 million. It's still shaping up as a big volume day but I misread the figures.
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I was possessed by some kind of spirit yesterday and sold it!
It went up a few % after I did too!
I think the spirit is called Mr.Weakhand.
Look at the volume on the run up yesterday!
BHP, RIO FMG all had good volume break out kind of days.
Only an idiot would have sold it.
Will look to get back in and try and be a bit more courageous soon.
Would love a dip.
If FMG is worth 5.30 this is worth 4 easy.
Whether it gets there, I don't know.
If the stock market was realistic neither of them are worth anything like that.
But as we know the stock market is what it is.
It went up a few % after I did too!
I think the spirit is called Mr.Weakhand.
Look at the volume on the run up yesterday!
BHP, RIO FMG all had good volume break out kind of days.
Only an idiot would have sold it.
Will look to get back in and try and be a bit more courageous soon.
Would love a dip.
If FMG is worth 5.30 this is worth 4 easy.
Whether it gets there, I don't know.
If the stock market was realistic neither of them are worth anything like that.
But as we know the stock market is what it is.
Atlas media release today
DECEMBER 2012 HALF YEAR RESULTS
In a volatile and sharply weaker iron ore market, Atlas has made a cash surplus from operations2 of
A$70M (2011 - A$164M). During the period, the Company also commenced exports from the Mt Dove
mine, started development at the Abydos mine and shipped a record total of 3.34Mt (WMT).
The very strong recovery in iron ore prices is now generating substantial margins, as illustrated by an
unaudited cash surplus from operations2 of $32M for the month of January, 2013. Atlas is now
producing at a rate of 8Mtpa and is on track to increase production to 10Mtpa by the end of June 2013.
KEY POINTS
Financial
Cash surplus from operations2 of A$70M, being ~$20/t
Unaudited cash surplus from operations2 of $32M for January 2013 reflects an average realised
iron ore price per tonne of USD$130 CFR DMT compared to the half-year average price per
tonne of USD$98 CFR DMT (including Value Fines)
Underlying Profit after tax1 of $1M (Dec 2011: Underlying Profit after tax1 of $62M)
Statutory Net Loss After Tax of $256M adversely impacted by previously announced non-cash
impairment charge on capitalised tenement costs and non-cash write-down on non-core assets of
$258M
Half Year cash operating costs/t (FOB, excluding royalties) are in line with revised guidance of
$46 - $50/t for the 2013 financial year. Full year guidance for FY2013 remains at $46 - $50/t
US$325M financing (US$275M Term Loan B and undrawn AUD$50M revolving facility)
completed, ensuring Atlas is fully funded for its Horizon 1 projects including port facilities
$423M cash on hand as at 31 December 2012 includes Term Loan B facility and is after
spending $37M on working capital increases, payment of $49M in stamp duty (FY2011 Giralia
acquisition), paying $20M cash in dividend and spending $136M on expansion works
Horizon 2
Negotiations with a number of infrastructure owners and developers are progressing with the
intent of unlocking the value of Atlas’ Horizon 2 assets
DECEMBER 2012 HALF YEAR RESULTS
In a volatile and sharply weaker iron ore market, Atlas has made a cash surplus from operations2 of
A$70M (2011 - A$164M). During the period, the Company also commenced exports from the Mt Dove
mine, started development at the Abydos mine and shipped a record total of 3.34Mt (WMT).
The very strong recovery in iron ore prices is now generating substantial margins, as illustrated by an
unaudited cash surplus from operations2 of $32M for the month of January, 2013. Atlas is now
producing at a rate of 8Mtpa and is on track to increase production to 10Mtpa by the end of June 2013.
KEY POINTS
Financial
Cash surplus from operations2 of A$70M, being ~$20/t
Unaudited cash surplus from operations2 of $32M for January 2013 reflects an average realised
iron ore price per tonne of USD$130 CFR DMT compared to the half-year average price per
tonne of USD$98 CFR DMT (including Value Fines)
Underlying Profit after tax1 of $1M (Dec 2011: Underlying Profit after tax1 of $62M)
Statutory Net Loss After Tax of $256M adversely impacted by previously announced non-cash
impairment charge on capitalised tenement costs and non-cash write-down on non-core assets of
$258M
Half Year cash operating costs/t (FOB, excluding royalties) are in line with revised guidance of
$46 - $50/t for the 2013 financial year. Full year guidance for FY2013 remains at $46 - $50/t
US$325M financing (US$275M Term Loan B and undrawn AUD$50M revolving facility)
completed, ensuring Atlas is fully funded for its Horizon 1 projects including port facilities
$423M cash on hand as at 31 December 2012 includes Term Loan B facility and is after
spending $37M on working capital increases, payment of $49M in stamp duty (FY2011 Giralia
acquisition), paying $20M cash in dividend and spending $136M on expansion works
Horizon 2
Negotiations with a number of infrastructure owners and developers are progressing with the
intent of unlocking the value of Atlas’ Horizon 2 assets
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A Reversal out of recent dip?
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I think it might be ready to move up. Whenever I've been first in the queue on the buy side today, whoever is "in charge" is doing everything possible to avoid selling to me. If/when I get sold into, the price plunges then recovers just as quickly.... [edit] except just then...
