AGO - Atlas Iron

[pixel]

Looks like the recent support of $1.085 has now become the resistance (after today's action).

The candle yesterday, broke through and closed below the 200ema.

View attachment 56207

If we use Fibonacci numbers for our EMAs, the break has occurred even earlier. Not only that, when it happened (at $1.14 on the 7th) the Trailing Stop (red arrow) that was triggered when the sp fell below the Volatility Envelope, was also vindicated.



For a brief moment on Thursday, I had considered possible support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level; however, at about 14:00, the Intraday chart overturned any earlier suggestion of a possible Long position, and Friday's drop to 50% provided additional proof of that.

 

[Poonam]

If we use Fibonacci numbers for our EMAs, the break has occurred even earlier. Not only that, when it happened (at $1.14 on the 7th) the Trailing Stop (red arrow) that was triggered when the sp fell below the Volatility Envelope, was also vindicated.

View attachment 56263

For a brief moment on Thursday, I had considered possible support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level; however, at about 14:00, the Intraday chart overturned any earlier suggestion of a possible Long position, and Friday's drop to 50% provided additional proof of that.

View attachment 56264

Excuse the ignorance, but what does all that mean?

 

[pixel]

Excuse the ignorance, but what does all that mean?

To a Technical Trader, it means that sufficient warning signs could be found in the chart/s to get out in time. even go short when the breakdown occurred.
Following the breakdown, potential support levels could be identified, where alerts would notify said traders to take a closer look. By "closer look", I mean re-assess the situation and consider whether to buy back (more than one sold), or to lower the alert to the next level. That's what I did on Thursday, and am now waiting for the next alert.
If AGO drops further, I'll wipe the alerts and remove AGO from my watchlist until a new setup evolves.

 

[Poonam]

To a Technical Trader, it means that sufficient warning signs could be found in the chart/s to get out in time. even go short when the breakdown occurred.
Following the breakdown, potential support levels could be identified, where alerts would notify said traders to take a closer look. By "closer look", I mean re-assess the situation and consider whether to buy back (more than one sold), or to lower the alert to the next level. That's what I did on Thursday, and am now waiting for the next alert.
If AGO drops further, I'll wipe the alerts and remove AGO from my watchlist until a new setup evolves.

Thanks for that explanation Pixel.
It seems that AGO are going through a difficult period - their price reflects this and has fallen. I suppose the question to be asked is whether there still a sound reason to buy at the current price.

 

[Miner]

AGO was behaving very well compared to MGX and similar.
Sudden fall however suggests some inside story and company may be coming with a bad result or news.
Is there some one following this scrip can shed light ? Chartists ? Any comparision between AGO, BCI, ARI and MGX ?

 

[edgykativu]

the costs are really tricky any pullback can be a problem for this one
id rather stay out

 

[Miner]

AGO was behaving very well compared to MGX and similar.
Sudden fall however suggests some inside story and company may be coming with a bad result or news.
Is there some one following this scrip can shed light ? Chartists ? Any comparision between AGO, BCI, ARI and MGX ?

the costs are really tricky any pullback can be a problem for this one
id rather stay out

EDGYKATIVU

I wished to have shorted on your advise to make a fortune by now.
Very well commented back in late August considering today's price of AGO

 

[skc]

AGO trading below GFC low.



The AGM presentation last week indicated that all-in cash cost of A$65-70/wmt (US$56-60/wmt). While the last quarter activity showed that they only achievfed a headline pric eof $US 69.62 / dmt. And that was when the iron ore price was around $90/dmt.

Does anyone know how to calculate WMT (wet metric tonne) to DMT equivalent? Why do they report these in different units?

 

[Miner]

AGO trading below GFC low.

View attachment 60164

The AGM presentation last week indicated that all-in cash cost of A$65-70/wmt (US$56-60/wmt). While the last quarter activity showed that they only achievfed a headline pric eof $US 69.62 / dmt. And that was when the iron ore price was around $90/dmt.

Does anyone know how to calculate WMT (wet metric tonne) to DMT equivalent? Why do they report these in different units?

DMT = without any moisture dry tonnes as the name implies. The moisture level varies between sites depending on dust content and how they suppressed the dust level. The cost of sending more weight metric ton (WMT) means also you are sending water by the ship at the price of iron ore. Higher the price of iorn ore, drier is the ore means more money to the supplier in terms of shipping cost savings.
The supplier and the purchaser agrees with water content by taking various sampling when accepting a DMT equivalent.

If you agree to supply 100 t of Iron ore concentrate at 60%Fe with 12% moisture at a price of 90 dmtu, that means your revenue will be:
100 t * 0.88 * 0.6 * 80 = US$4224.
So 100 metric tons at 12% moisture = 88 dmt
DSO is very beneficial but not every company exports DSO. The situation worsens when you produce magnetite ore compared to hametite. Often the processing cost of low grade of Fe goes up to make higher grade. So it is not uncommon for some miners to save expensive cost of treatment in Australian land and to ship low grade ore in a cost effective way.
Thanks

 

[skc]

DMT = without any moisture dry tonnes as the name implies. The moisture level varies between sites depending on dust content and how they suppressed the dust level. The cost of sending more weight metric ton (WMT) means also you are sending water by the ship at the price of iron ore. Higher the price of iorn ore, drier is the ore means more money to the supplier in terms of shipping cost savings.
The supplier and the purchaser agrees with water content by taking various sampling when accepting a DMT equivalent.

If you agree to supply 100 t of Iron ore concentrate at 60%Fe with 12% moisture at a price of 90 dmtu, that means your revenue will be:
100 t * 0.88 * 0.6 * 80 = US$4224.
So 100 metric tons at 12% moisture = 88 dmt
DSO is very beneficial but not every company exports DSO. The situation worsens when you produce magnetite ore compared to hametite. Often the processing cost of low grade of Fe goes up to make higher grade. So it is not uncommon for some miners to save expensive cost of treatment in Australian land and to ship low grade ore in a cost effective way.
Thanks

Thanks Miner. Most educational.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Down 82% this year. Buy low, sell lower. Found support at 55c and 35c for a couple of weeks. Now 20c has stacked up for a few days. Lacked the dump volume on 19th Nov. that the others had.

 

[notting]

A lot of automatic stop losses, automatic profit taking got triggered by the momentary blip up in the IO price, whilst traders where on holiday.
Made for many small players to leap through the roof.
With no supply as everyone alive was on holiday.
Looks like the holidays over and their putting their shorts back on today!

 

[Miner]

A lot of automatic stop losses, automatic profit taking got triggered by the momentary blip up in the IO price, whilst traders where on holiday.
Made for many small players to leap through the roof.
With no supply as everyone alive was on holiday.
Looks like the holidays over and their putting their shorts back on today!

Not happy. They should have been in holiday and I could get the tipping prize. Now I will be behind. LOL

Seriously, the price rise of AGO was over shot on the same was of ARI. But when I see BCI, MGX and FMG did not move up so it was sure that iron ore price or future was not responsible for price up but something else which articulately explained.
Thanks a lot

 

[burglar]

Not happy. They should have been in holiday and I could get the tipping prize. Now I will be behind. LOL

Seriously, the price rise of AGO was over shot on the same was of ARI. But when I see BCI, MGX and FMG did not move up so it was sure that iron ore price or future was not responsible for price up but something else which articulately explained.
Thanks a lot

Miner!

There is a new competition, annual.

You might like it!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29362&p=856542#post856542

 

[Miner]

Miner!

There is a new competition, annual.

You might like it!

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=29362&p=856542#post856542

Ha Ha
I did put some stocks on that.
Who knows?
thanks a lot

 

[notting]

Citi analysts lowered their iron ore forecast for this year and next,
forecasting that the iron ore market does not fully recover to its long-term equilibrium
of $65/t till the fourth-quarter of 2016, versus the first quarter previously.
Specifically, Citi now sees iron ore to average at $66/t in Q1, $56/t in Q2, and dip all
the way to $53/t in Q3. Iron ore traded at $68.74 yesterday. The metal dropped to a
five-year low of $66.84 on December 23, according to Bloomberg. Citi's new forecast
indicates another 23% downside.
Checking in on prices, BHP Billiton fell 1.2% this morning, Rio Tinto retreated 1.5%.
Overnight in New York, Vale's ADR was down 0.6%.

WOW. Imagine being able to pick IO prices like that.
These guys are amazing.

 

[skc]

AGO shares are suspended this morning pending a review of everything.

Will they mothball operations? Will they be able to do this under current ownership, or under administration? There are port capacity issues and break fee in contracts to consider as well.

I remember looking at them some months ago when they actually had a clean balance sheet with no debt. You can make the case that, the AGO management and the lenders were just as silly as each other to create this kind of leveraged (financially) leveraged (operationally) beast. During the good times returns were awesome, and in the bad times, it goes bust.

Or may be it's the investor's responsibility to be aware of the beast they are riding and partake accordingly? Nah... it's much easier to blame someone else!

 

[So_Cynical]

AGO shares are suspended this morning pending a review of everything.!

Some media speculation that this is one of those trading halts that never gets lifted.

 

[piggybank]

Some media speculation that this is one of those trading halts that never gets lifted.

It got lifted today but sadly its means more pain for the workers and their families

More than 500 people are set to lose their jobs as Atlas Iron suspends all mining operations because of plunging iron ore prices. The West Australian miner will cease all operations by the end of April, as aggressive cost cutting has been unable to offset the financial impact of steep falls in the price of Australia's largest export. "To suspend our operations, with the impact that will have on so many committed and talented people, is an extremely difficult decision" managing director Ken Brinsden said. "I sincerely thank all those who have worked so hard to build Atlas production base and those who have worked furiously to maintain Atlas competitive position over the past 15 months, in the face of increasingly oppressive market conditions".

More can be read here:- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-iron-ore-miner-halts-074708050.html

And one from the company:- http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AGO&E=ASX&N=715499

Who is going to be the next one?

 

[skc]

It got lifted today but sadly its means more pain for the workers and their families

More than 500 people are set to lose their jobs as Atlas Iron suspends all mining operations because of plunging iron ore prices. The West Australian miner will cease all operations by the end of April, as aggressive cost cutting has been unable to offset the financial impact of steep falls in the price of Australia's largest export. "To suspend our operations, with the impact that will have on so many committed and talented people, is an extremely difficult decision" managing director Ken Brinsden said. "I sincerely thank all those who have worked so hard to build Atlas production base and those who have worked furiously to maintain Atlas competitive position over the past 15 months, in the face of increasingly oppressive market conditions".

More can be read here:- https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-iron-ore-miner-halts-074708050.html

And one from the company:- http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AGO&E=ASX&N=715499

Who is going to be the next one?

The suspension of ASX trading has NOT been lifted. Stopping operations is likely to have triggered debt convenant... so they need the lenders to agree some sort of work out. The share will (and should) remain suspended from trading for the time being.

GBG is probably the next to fall, according to AFR. It's only valued at $30m however. And you wonder how SDL is still valued at $60m...