Yes , Agl intends to commit to 2023, look to attachment, Sorry for lack of information , Day trading Btc atm Interesting time it hit on the 1hr timeframe, will add more information later on the dividend@Dark1975 I think that you can't go wrong here, long term the SP should recover.
Will the dividend be scaled back ? this is what you are looking at ?
Below is the Monthly chart and the Dividend History from Market Index for reference.
View attachment 118560
$2.69 billion in write downs show the severe headwinds faced by Australian energy companies caused by plunging wholesale electricity prices, unprofitable renewable power sales contracts and higher site remediation costs....
No denying lower electricity price and volume and as a system guy, the trend is not good but i also play some stocks on real fundamentals like i was with silverFurther to my previous post about price, the El Nino weather phenomenon and effects of COVID-19 related lockdowns etc on the economy are affecting volume.
Since it's a seasonal issue, looking specifically at the past two months (that is, Summer thus far):
Whole National Electricity Market (all states except WA and NT):
Volume (all sources) January 2021 = 17,455 GWh (or 17,455,000 MWh)
Volume (all sources) January 2020 = 18,879 GWh
Volume (all sources) December 2020 = 17,105 GWh
Volume (all sources) December 2019 = 17,648 GWh
So the relative lack of heatwave conditions, the occurrence of which drives air-conditioning load, thus far is affecting volume. Meanwhile some specific generation sources have increased output, due to construction of new facilities, thus further reducing volume from other facilities.
Following data is for all companies except where indicated otherwise:
NSW Coal January 2021 = 4136 GWh
NSW Coal January 2020 = 5003 GWh
Victoria Coal January 2021 = 3101 GWh
Victoria Coal January 2020 = 3108 GWh
AGL is the largest operator in both cases and accounts for about 44% of coal capacity in NSW and 45% in Victoria and these assets comprise a large portion of AGL's physical electricity production.
SA gas-fired generation from Torrens Island A & B power stations (AGL owned)
January 2021 = 103 GWh
January 2020 = 138 GWh
SA gas-fired generation from Barker Inlet power station (AGL owned)
January 2021 = 13 GWh
January 2020 = 35 GWh
All other companies gas-fired generation in SA (excl AGL)
January 2021 = 184 GWh
January 2020 = 257 GWh
Victoria hydro generation (AGL is the second largest operator with 30% of capacity)
January 2021 = 215 GWh
January 2020 = 194 GWh
Wind generation by all companies in all NEM states (AGL has a presence in this)
January 2021 = 1852 GWh
January 2020 = 1431 GWh
Large scale solar generation by all companies in all NEM states (AGL has a presence in this)
January 2021 = 795 GWh
January 2020 = 553 GWh
As background, generation by companies other than AGL
Estimated small scale (households etc) solar generation in all NEM states
January 2021 = 1590 GWh
January 2020 = 1216 GWh
Queensland coal generation (various companies)
January 2021 = 4112 GWh
January 2020 = 4502 GWh
Queensland gas generation (various companies)
January 2021 = 455 GWh
January 2020 = 645 GWh
NSW gas generation
January 2021 = 66 GWh (Energy Australia share 64 GWh, others 2 GWh)
January 2020 = 143 GWh (Energy Australia share 96 GWh, others 47 GWh)
Victoria gas generation (AGL has a minor presence with 6.7% of Vic gas-fired capacity)
January 2021 = 30 GWh
January 2020 = 141 GWh
Tasmania gas generation (all of which is owned by AETV Power, a subsidiary of Hydro Tasmania)
January 2021 = 2 GWh
January 2020 = 5 GWh
Queensland hydro generation (all of which is owned by CleanCo)
January 2021 = 87 GWh net of pumping
January 2020 = 23 GWh net of pumping
NSW hydro generation (Snowy Hydro owns most of it, Origin is the other significant operator)
January 2021 = 244 GWh net of pumping
January 2020 = 202 GWh net of pumping
Tasmania hydro generation (all of which is owned by Hydro Tasmania)
January 2021 = 453 GWh
January 2020 = 611 GWh
Queensland biomass generation (various companies)
January 2021 = 11 GWh
January 2020 = 11 GWh
So basically the entire industry has taken a volume hit with the only increases being wind, solar and eastern mainland states hydro.
Price down and volume down = not a particularly profitable situation for the generation side of the business.
Other major parts of AGL's business are electricity retail, natural gas retail and physical gas storage. The first two are simply a margin business, the difference between buy price and sell price less costs, whilst gas storage is a relatively minor activity and basically a "buy low, sell high" situation albeit one involving physical movement of the actual commodity.
Contrary to what most would assume - AGL has negligible involvement in actually producing gas and does not own substantial gas pipelines or electricity networks. It's a power generation, gas / electricity retail and to a much lesser extent gas storage company in practice although it does currently have a proposal for an LNG import terminal to be built in Victoria which, if it goes ahead, would make them a gas supplier as such (well, a supplier in the domestic market context).
The present AGL owned LNG facility in Newcastle is storage only. Take gas out of the pipeline in summer, turn it into LNG and put that in the tank, reverse that in winter and put the gas back in the pipe. It's a pure storage operation apart from any LNG they happen to sell "as LNG" by loading it into a road tanker truck for use by whoever.
Time will tell... years.. probably suited to dollar averaged investment in a basket of stocksNo denying lower electricity price and volume and as a system guy, the trend is not good but i also play some stocks on real fundamentals like i was with silver
Agl current pe is 7 ish, is selling a product which can not be replaced completely and critical
The narative is: it is old technology, coal burning, etc
But the write down they just took is on wind farms..yes..not fitting well with reset...
https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...-7b-in-asset-write-downs-20210204-p56zj8.html
If you have to buy a stock today at a peak bubble time, earning some dividends and to keep in the next 10y,i still believe it is not a bad bet
And it is not a majjor gas coal producer which tend not to be a bad thing across an economic cycle
Read Smurfs 1st post above - pretty much explains what happening.It seems to me that all electric utility companies have been in a massive bear market these last 12 months.
Can anyone explain why? The means of generating electricity is so cheap now so these stocks should be doing well right.
Also what do we see as potential price floor for AGL? It's trading cheap at 7PE
Indeed and my view is actually positive on medium long term.we just need a few blackouts and they will become favour of the monthRead Smurfs 1st post above - pretty much explains what happening.
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Yeah, I did a quick background check and a quick analysis. However ORG is more involved in the renewable energy space, so it might trade at a premium to good old Australian Gas and Lighting company (AGL).Read Smurfs 1st post above - pretty much explains what happening.
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The wheel will turn and high prices return at some point, AGL and ORG seem to be very cyclical businesses as far as profit goes.
I'm thinking about taking a small loss on my recently acquired ORG shares and buying AGL ~ AGL is a better business - right?
Read Smurfs 1st post above - pretty much explains what happening.
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The wheel will turn and high prices return at some point, AGL and ORG seem to be very cyclical businesses as far as profit goes.
I'm thinking about taking a small loss on my recently acquired ORG shares and buying AGL ~ AGL is a better business - right?
And i believe it will happen after a few blackouts@joeno producing electricity is a very expensive business, these companies have a lot of money tied up in assetts that nobody likes but everyone needs, so they are having to thrash them to death to keep the lights on.
Meanwhile renewable generation is being installed with no storage, so the renewables push the fossil fueled generators of line, but they have to come back on line when the sun goes down.
This causes thermal stress to machines and they arent on long enough to make money.
It is a similar situation to the car industry, everyone wants EVs but they also want to keep running their ICE car until it is worn out, so the car companies have to keep making parts, which they probably would love to get out of.
This transition period is really hard for the established players, not so difficult for the new entrants with no fossil fueled baggage.lol
But the ranters and chanters dont give a rats about that, as long as they can keep ranting and chanting, common sense doesnt come into it.
The major players are going to have to write down their assetts and spend a whole lot of money replacing them, to maintain thier market share.
In reality the new entrants should be forced to install complimentary storage, when connecting these solar wind farms, it is the only way that it becomes a level playing field.
Only my opinion.
They have consistent strong cashflows. Unless they have management issues or losing market share i don't understand how this is not a great pick. They're not going bankrupt. So i'd imagine the margin of safety is huge.
Exactly - AGL and ORG are great picks at the moment, markets turn and stocks go up and down, I would not hesitate to add AGL
to my portfolio at current levels however I already have a sizable ORG position and dont like to double up, get over exposed.
Deep value is my thing and AGL is super appealing at the moment.
ORG has never been a great company. It's difficult to get excited about a company that pays overs for WPL's hand me down.
Substitute APA for AGL and OSH for ORG and you will do far better in the long term, probably the medium and short term as well.
It's hard to get excited about stocks that may be able to deal with current problems within the industry somewhat better. But with far less attractive valuations - PE, growth, balance sheet.
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