AGL - AGL Energy

[Quant]

Gravity starting to take effect . Index weakness certainly helping

 

[rb250660]

Yep, closed my long 3 weeks ago. I didn't look until I saw this post today and I'm glad I got the signal back then!

 

[Quant]

Now there is a bit more clarity on guidance I think a nice swing low is on the horizon now , Exdiv tomorrow and we be getting closer to the zone . watching the 21- 22 level and alerts set

 

[greggles]

AGL to build $400m gas-fired power plant

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...t/news-story/7b3613e7e07991d2e7f72e2e61e05fa6

AGL Energy will build a 252 megawatt electricity plant near Newcastle in NSW which is expected to make up some of the shortfall following the closure of its Liddell power station.

 

[mcgrath111]

Interesting to see if AGL bounces from yesterday's shalackin.

Seem's to be up on a bit of volume, a bit of a bounce - might take a dip and see if we head toward 22.5

The risk of ACCC and trade war are apparent, lets see if I can get my buy order filled.

 

[peter2]

Since the last post price fell to 17.50 (Oct18).
It has since bounced and was not effected by the market dip (Oct - Dec18).

There's an attractive chart based setup (BO-HR) for a longer term holder (good yield?).

 

[Smurf1976]

https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/me...dro-energy-storage-project-in-south-australia

AGL aren't the original "inventor" of this specific proposal but they've bought the rights to develop the 250 MW pumped storage scheme.

At the present time AGL is building the new Barker Inlet gas-fired power station in metropolitan Adelaide with a capacity of 210 MW. Barker Inlet is physically located near the existing Torrens Island power stations (AGL) noting that 'A' station, with a capacity of 480 MW, is planned to be closed progressively with 240 MW to shut in September 2019, 120 MW in 2020 and the final 120 MW in 2021.

To put the figures into perspective, electricity demand in SA ranges between about 600 MW to 3400 MW with the average being around 1500 MW. Both extremes are heavily influenced by weather.

A number of other companies are also proposing similar scale pumped hydro projects in SA and are in practice rivals to the AGL proposal.

 

[Smurf1976]

I've posted further details in "The future of energy generation and storage" thread since it has relevance to all companies operating in the National Electricity Market, listed or otherwise, but in short there has been a significant incident at Loy Yang power station in Victoria with impact on the company's finances estimated to be in the $60 - $100 million range.

The other thread is here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-future-of-energy-generation-and-storage.29842/page-164

And the company's media release is here:

https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/me...20-impact-of-extended-unit-outage-at-loy-yang

Rival companies would have been aware of the failure when it occurred, the production data from power stations is publicly available to anyone in real time and very heavily analysed in the industry, but so far as I'm aware today's the first time AGL has put a specific cost and 7 month time frame on the failure.

 

[Smurf1976]

First power generation from AGL's new Barker Inlet power station occurred today. At present that's just testing but they've generated some power and that has gone into the grid so it's a step forward.

The new facility consists of 12 x 17.5 MW reciprocating engines, so 210 MW in total, located next to AGL's existing Torrens Island B power station approximately 15km from the Adelaide CBD. Primary fuel used is natural gas, secondary fuel source is diesel.

To put the new facility into perspective, its 210 MW capacity compares with SA's all time record peak electricity demand of approximately 3400 MW and average consumption of 1564 MW from all sources over the past 12 months. So the new facility is not large from a national perspective but it's locally significant in SA and represents a significant asset for AGL given its budgeted construction cost of $295 million.

As a substantial scale facility using multiple reciprocating engines it is unique within the National Electricity Market and as such will be attracting considerable attention from rival companies and others as to how it's actually operated. AGL are under no obligation to publicly release cost data but the physical output is publicly available in real time to anyone and will no doubt be heavily analysed against the market price for both gas and electricity by many.

AGL haven't committed to it at this stage but they do have in place the approvals and land to duplicate the facility at current site at a future time if they choose to.

 

[Smurf1976]

State and Federal politicians have done the official opening of the Barker Inlet station today.

AGL's media release about that is here: https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/me...d-major-dispatchable-power-station-in-7-years

It's not actually in commercial operation as yet. It has generated some power which has gone into the grid but is still undergoing an assortment of tests as part of the commissioning process which will take a few more weeks to complete - you don't just start up a $295 million plant and hope for the best.

A time lapse video of construction for those interested:

 

[sptrawler]

12 X 17.5 MW units, will give them a lot of flexibility, to fit in with the renewables. Also being reciprocating engines, they will basically be instant on/off units, nice idea and should work well. IMO

 

[Smurf1976]

I've posted further details in "The future of energy generation and storage" thread since it has relevance to all companies operating in the National Electricity Market, listed or otherwise, but in short there has been a significant incident at Loy Yang power station in Victoria with impact on the company's finances estimated to be in the $60 - $100 million range.

Finally back to full production at Loy Yang as of tonight following the major incident which occurred on 18 May 2019.

So all up it took about 8 months versus the original target of 7 - not bad considering the scale of work required and that it's by no means a routine everyday sort of task to be doing.

 

[sptrawler]

AGL profit down 19.6%, losing a big generator for 8 months wouldn't have helped.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

LNG import terminal for East Coast ... to be at Pt Crib, Victoria

https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/how-we-source-energy/gas-import-project


(*Victoria? that's the state with moratorium for on-shore hydrocarbon exploration?)

there's also a Twiggy Forrest backed project (further developed) at Port Kembla, NSW, to import LNG
https://ausindenergy.com/

 

[Smurf1976]

LNG import terminal for East Coast ... to be at Pt Crib, Victoria

AGL proposal is in Victoria.

There's two other proposals in NSW and one in SA.

Long story short, in terms of where the pipelines run, Victoria does offer advantages. It also uses about the same volume of gas as NSW and SA combined which is another aspect.

It's not a done deal though and there's considerable opposition to the project. I won't speculate as to how that will play out.

BHP-Esso joint venture did have a rival LNG import proposal in Victoria but they've officially abandoned it indeed Esso has announced sale of their existing oil and gas assets in Victoria (BHP are contemplating what to do about their half of the JV and haven't announced anything yet to my knowledge).

 

[Dark1975]

I just accumulated alot more Agl , with 8.15% yield ( 80% franked) its currently 43% down since covid, with energy stocks set to rise with the cycle, good growth stock with strong yields
I think agl is @ a good entry point now for long term growth

 

[sptrawler]

I just accumulated alot more Agl , with 8.15% yield ( 80% franked) its currently 43% down since covid, with energy stocks set to rise with the cycle, good growth stock with strong yields
I think agl is @ a good entry point now for long term growth

I'm only thinking out loud here, so if I'm way off the mark ignore or correct as you wish, but here goes.
The Eastern States interconnected grid has many players feeding in and many more lining up to install renewables generation plant.
AGL makes a lot of its income from dispatchable generation, much of which it is going to close down in the forseable future, as per attached article:
https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/me...e-for-the-closure-of-agl-plants-in-nsw-and-sa

If they lose the market penetration of that generating capacity, how hard will it hit their bottom line?
The Federal government has also stated, they want a private generator to commit to build a 1000MW power station by April 2021, or else the Federal Government will build it. Would that affect AGL's bottom line?
There are an awful lot of unknowns surrounding power generation ATM, as more and more want to push into renewable generation, where the money is. So will AGL be the generation power house in the future, that it was in the past? As I said I haven't looked into AGL at all, but many on here have a firm understanding of the Eastern States grid and may be able to add some meat to the subject, it certainly is an interesting one IMO.

 

[Dark1975]

I purchased more Agl on Friday being at it's lows, with low cash rates , I needed to balance my portfolio with more high dividend yields "98 cents, roughly equates 7.90% , with the news on the 14 /1/2020 with Agl announced that energy storage tech companies wartsila and fluence to secure framework agreements to supply 1000MW of grid scale battery storage. That's great news for the company as of late with the recent downgrades,
I personally think it's a great entry point with Agl with good solid dividends ,With Strong balance sheets ,Good net profits, In a time with low cash rates and uncertainty I think there's room for growth in price in the future,
Please DYOR

 

[Smurf1976]

There are an awful lot of unknowns surrounding power generation ATM, as more and more want to push into renewable generation, where the money is. So will AGL be the generation power house in the future, that it was in the past? As I said I haven't looked into AGL at all, but many on here have a firm understanding of the Eastern States grid and may be able to add some meat to the subject, it certainly is an interesting one IMO.

Another scenario is generation owned by company A but contracted to company B.

In that arrangement company A physically owns and operates the plant at fixed prices. Company B handles the market and business side of it all.

I'm not saying that AGL will necessarily do that but it's an option especially for an established major player and there are precedents in the industry including some involving AGL. Some smaller company builds a battery, wind farm or whatever under a fixed $ contract arrangement with someone like AGL who then own it's output but not the physical plant.

Rival company Origin have publicly disclosed that they have substantial generation volume contracted from others and similar business concepts exist in other industries too.

 

[Trav.]

I needed to balance my portfolio with more high dividend yields "98 cents, roughly equates 7.90%

@Dark1975 I think that you can't go wrong here, long term the SP should recover.

Will the dividend be scaled back ? this is what you are looking at ?

Below is the Monthly chart and the Dividend History from Market Index for reference.