AGF - AMP Capital China Growth Fund

professor_frink · 15 February 2007

Re: AMP Capital China Growth Fund

howdy folks,

For all you folks involved in the Chinese market, either directly or through a fund- here's a link that was posted in another thread that may be of some interest-

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

BIG BWACULL · 15 February 2007

YEAR OF THE PIG

So it is expected that the economy and the stock market will shot up to very high levels in the months from February till about July. However, investors have to be cautious towards autumn and winter as there will be substantial set back as the fire element will disappear in 2008, the year of the Earth Rat. The situation bears some similarity to the Asian currency crisis that broke out in around August of 1997. 1997 is also a Yin fire year and such illusive fire pushed the stock and property market sky high in first half of 1997 before the collapse came in August. However, in general, we do not expect the setback in second half of 2007 will be as serious as that of 1997. The reason being that there is hidden wood element in the Pig which still provide support to the Yin fire even in winter time.

Raymond Lo, popularly known as "Fung Shui Lo", is a professional feng shui and destiny consultant, author and lecturer, who helps people create harmony with their environment, for greater relationships, health, wealth and success.
Mr. Lo has appeared on numerous television shows, including : ABC’s "Good Morning America", BBC’s "Wicker’s World", Australian TV "Today Show", Discovery Channel’s "Feng Shui Makeover", CNN’s "Tech Watch" and Chinese new year interviews.

I invest and will hold out till the year of the metal rabbit at the very least (2011)

shinobi346 · 15 February 2007

Why 2$? Why not $3? $1.5? $1.15?? Care to share your research (if you did any) on where the $2 came from?

Garpal Gumnut · 16 February 2007

shinobi346 said:
Why 2$? Why not $3? $1.5? $1.15?? Care to share your research (if you did any) on where the $2 came from?

An older post suggested it was still just worth $1 until we see how the China market pans out this year. I note amp have bought more at higher prices than recent closes. Lets wait and see. a spinning penny may be the best advice once it settles, heads or tails?

Garpal

Pat · 16 February 2007

I agree Garples

I still don't see any analysis, fundamental or technical, why AGF will move in price....up or down.

I guess it's up to the coin....

the barry · 16 February 2007

Pat said:
I agree Garples

I still don't see any analysis, fundamental or technical, why AGF will move in price....up or down.

I guess it's up to the coin....

Isn't the fact that they have increased the nav from 96 cents to 1.10 within a month an indication that the stock price should be moving up???

Pat · 16 February 2007

the barry said:
Isn't the fact that they have increased the nav from 96 cents to 1.10 within a month an indication that the stock price should be moving up???

Not sure what your refering to with the "increased nav". However I would like to know what it is... and what relationship this can have with AGF's shareprice.

However, on a crappy T/A as theres no real history, the chart indicates nothing apart from tightening Bollinger bands a sideways trend.

the barry · 16 February 2007

Pat said:
Not sure what your refering to with the "increased nav". However I would like to know what it is... and what relationship this can have with AGF's shareprice.

However, on a crappy T/A as theres no real history, the chart indicates nothing aprt from tightening Bollinger bands a sideways trend.

The initial net asset value per unit was initially 96 cents when the fund started. That is referring to the the total value of the assets divided by the total number of units in the fund. In the past month the nav per unit has risen to 1.10, meaning that the value of the assets has increased by 14 cents, or approximatly 15 percent. If they continued this trend for the year shareholders would all be very happy. That is why we have seen the turn around in the share price.

angela200172 · 16 February 2007

the barry said:
The initial net asset value per unit was initially 96 cents when the fund started. That is referring to the the total value of the assets divided by the total number of units in the fund. In the past month the nav per unit has risen to 1.10, meaning that the value of the assets has increased by 14 cents, or approximatly 15 percent. If they continued this trend for the year shareholders would all be very happy. That is why we have seen the turn around in the share price.

yes, I agree Barry

AGF sp won't drop back to $1.10, now the sp at $1.195, up trend just start. china A market up 87p to 2993. yestoday, I think the A market will up to 3000 for chinese new year on next Monday, and after that 2 big meeting for china GOV on March, so the will up to the 2 big meeting over on march, AGF unit will increas more 15% on Feb.

Pat · 16 February 2007

the barry said:
The initial net asset value per unit was initially 96 cents when the fund started. That is referring to the the total value of the assets divided by the total number of units in the fund. In the past month the nav per unit has risen to 1.10, meaning that the value of the assets has increased by 14 cents, or approximatly 15 percent. If they continued this trend for the year shareholders would all be very happy. That is why we have seen the turn around in the share price.

Net asset value... Should of known, not familiar with the term "nav".... now i am familiar.

Yes if that trend continued then yes, It would be great, however what indication is there of the trend continuing?

To say a stock will go to any price in 12 months if a trend continues is quite "loose" IMO.

the barry · 16 February 2007

Pat said:
Net asset value... Should of known, not familiar with the term "nav".... now i am familiar.

Yes if that trend continued then yes, It would be great, however what indication is there of the trend continuing?

To say a stock will go to any price in 12 months if a trend continues is quite "loose" IMO.

I never put a price on the stock, present, or in 12 months. All i stated was that if the present trend in growth continued, which is one month so obviously it is hardly anything to go by, that in 12 months the shareholders would be very happy.

Garpal Gumnut · 17 February 2007

the barry said:
Isn't the fact that they have increased the nav from 96 cents to 1.10 within a month an indication that the stock price should be moving up???

Dear the barry,

I've got a lawn mower, had it for 12 years. Its a good mower, but I've seen one at Harveys that is new and looks like an updated version of mine.

I've also got 3 mates who know about lawnmowers.

1. a doctor ... he says its worth $100
2. a diesel mechanic ....he says its worth $150
3. a soldier, warrant officer, .... he says its worth $300

I've got to decide its NAV

Its NAV is $375 I've decided.

Its the same with stocks, someone has to value it, but you need to work out its value to you.

cheers

Garpal

the barry · 17 February 2007

Garpal Gumnut said:
Dear the barry,

I've got a lawn mower, had it for 12 years. Its a good mower, but I've seen one at Harveys that is new and looks like an updated version of mine.

I've also got 3 mates who know about lawnmowers.

1. a doctor ... he says its worth $100
2. a diesel mechanic ....he says its worth $150
3. a soldier, warrant officer, .... he says its worth $300

I've got to decide its NAV

Its NAV is $375 I've decided.

Its the same with stocks, someone has to value it, but you need to work out its value to you.

cheers

Garpal

I dont quite understand what you are trying to get at with this. The fund is made up of a group of assets, which in this case are shares. The value of these shares are determined by the market. I am also unaware of any other types of funds similiar to agf.

Garpal Gumnut · 17 February 2007

the barry said:
I dont quite understand what you are trying to get at with this. The fund is made up of a group of assets, which in this case are shares. The value of these shares are determined by the market. I am also unaware of any other types of funds similiar to agf.

Dear the barry,

Excuse me if I sound teacherish but please read your reply from the second sentence "slowly". NAV can be plastic/elastic. It is in the eye of the be"holder". I know of no similar mower to my lawnmower. I have had 3 different valuations. If it rains it is worth more. The market is you!!. However the market sometimes is not privy to essential information. Think outside the square and don't believe anything you are told, you'll keep your base capital safe that way. You may wake up tomorrow am to find this stocks NAV has halved, ....or ....doubled.

Garpal

stoxclimber · 18 February 2007

I believe what garpal is trying to say in a very roundabout way is that the AGF share price incorporated some expectations of a rising NAV so when the NAV actually rose from 96c to 1.10 it was as expected so therefore no reason for AGF to rise/fall.

WhoDaresWin · 18 February 2007

Just can't see any comparison between Garpal's lawnmower and share price... Yes, share price is decided by the market as a consensus of opinions, which are majorly based on the company's fundamentals and of course other factors as well, but definitely not some guessing works or judgement thats based on others' post.

moses · 18 February 2007

Pat said:
I agree Garples

I still don't see any analysis, fundamental or technical, why AGF will move in price....up or down.

Perhaps the Neilson SMA chart will be a better than nothing.

The Neilson SMA shows a steady selling pressure from "smart money", traders with bigger parcels than average. This is a bearish signal. It means that the more serious orders are from sellers waiting to cash in on peaks rather than buyers hoping to pick up any dips.

For more info see Neilson Smart Money Analyser thread.

Pat · 19 February 2007

I still don't see any reason why this stock will go to $2 as stated by Angela,
nor is there any analysis as to why/if this current trend will continue...
What trend anyway? Perhaps someone could post a chart and show me this trend which predicts a $2 share price in 12 months, and the fundamentals that indicate why the trend will continue?

CanOz · 19 February 2007

Pat said:
I still don't see any reason why this stock will go to $2 as stated by Angela,
nor is there any analysis as to why/if this current trend will continue...
What trend anyway? Perhaps someone could post a chart and show me this trend which predicts a $2 share price in 12 months, and the fundamentals that indicate why the trend will continue?

I would challenge any T/A to find a reason that this fund will go to $2. Its too young. There was, what appears to have been, a selling climax and that could allow it to move higher. That was probably back when the Shanghai A retraced a bit.

China stocks are ripe for a pullback.

Sean K · 19 February 2007

I have to agree that there doesn't seem to be any analysis on this yet, except from Moses's Smart Money indicator, which I would like to see validated somewhere.

Let's stick to some solid analysis folks. Thanks to those for keeping the forum real...

AGF - AMP Capital China Growth Fund

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