AFG - Allco Finance Group

[ROE]

Who are the 4 margin lenders that lend these guys money..maybe we should start shorting them as well

 

[Aussie2Aussie]

Directors and mgt own a large chunk of this stock...they will be guarding their wealth very closely...interests are aligned with ours.

Is it true what I am reading, the management and directors are at fault for the grief that the shareholders are suffering. Guarding their wealth a bit too closely.

Shock and horror!

 

[Broadside]

Is it true what I am reading, the management and directors are at fault for the grief that the shareholders are suffering. Guarding their wealth a bit too closely.

Shock and horror!

All things being equal I prefer directors and management to have decent equity in the company. I know it's a hard concept for you to grasp, how do I post pictures here? Have a nice day.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Directors and mgt own a large chunk of this stock...they will be guarding their wealth very closely...interests are aligned with ours.

Is this statement true if directors or management hold stock via margin loans. Where then do their major interests lie, with their shareholders, their margin loan provider or their families?

The amount of loyalty on the part of posters to this stock amazes me. Its just a stock, to be bought and sold as necessary. At least the big operators with the margin loans know where their loyalties lie.

gg

 

[Broadside]

I'm not loyal to it...my first purchase was Monday because I consider it oversold.

"Is this statement true if directors or management hold stock via margin loans. Where then do their major interests lie, with their shareholders, their margin loan provider or their families?"

Yes, I believe it is true regardless of how they financed their purchase. Let's put this issue in perspective rather than being ultra pedantic, this isn't why I bought the stock! I bought it for other reasons, yes it is high risk! I am done arguing over this minor point.

Stay away from it if you're uncomfortable with the risk.

 

[Broadside]

http://business.smh.com.au/dont-jud...r--it-cant-be-all-that-bad/20080124-1nz0.html

a good article to balance out the bollocking it was receiving in the AFR the past couple of weeks.

 

[tronic72]

http://business.smh.com.au/dont-jud...r--it-cant-be-all-that-bad/20080124-1nz0.html

a good article to balance out the bollocking it was receiving in the AFR the past couple of weeks.

Hmm, it's been pretty quiet here, so I assume those posters who canned AFG have gone on to can another stock.

Thanks to Allco and it's return to form, I'm back to where I was prior to the recent crash. I've also got a bunch of their shares, which based on their 07 dividend will potentially give me a 30% return on dividends alone. The cherry on top is the 100% return I made on my investment in little over a week.

To put it in context, Allco was at $6 early January. My prediction is, once their results are released on the 15th of February, the price will shoot up near the $6 level again. I think the fact that AFGs margin lenders have agreed to hold off selling more shares means that AFG have given the lenders a peak at their books to show they are on track and that it will be in everyone's interests to hold the AFG shares until after they are released upon which time the shares will have increased to pre 08 levels.

Another thing to remember is that that AFG didn't own Rubicon back when it hit it's highs. Now they do. If the company can't substantially increase their profits after the acquisition, then they should all retire early and give control to someone who can. (a room full of pre-schoolers for example)

As I said in my previous posts, there simply wasn't a GOOD reason for Allco's massive decline. Sure they hadn't performed well but the stock was cheap and buying the stock had an element of risk but the current market is risky.



Edit. Since composing this E-mail I'm actually better of than I was prior to christmas 07. Go AFG!!!!

 

[imaginator]

How is this stock related to AXQ?

Is it the same company? Cant find a AXQ thread in this forum,...

Hmm, it's been pretty quiet here, so I assume those posters who canned AFG have gone on to can another stock.

Thanks to Allco and it's return to form, I'm back to where I was prior to the recent crash. I've also got a bunch of their shares, which based on their 07 dividend will potentially give me a 30% return on dividends alone. The cherry on top is the 100% return I made on my investment in little over a week.

To put it in context, Allco was at $6 early January. My prediction is, once their results are released on the 15th of February, the price will shoot up near the $6 level again. I think the fact that AFGs margin lenders have agreed to hold off selling more shares means that AFG have given the lenders a peak at their books to show they are on track and that it will be in everyone's interests to hold the AFG shares until after they are released upon which time the shares will have increased to pre 08 levels.

Another thing to remember is that that AFG didn't own Rubicon back when it hit it's highs. Now they do. If the company can't substantially increase their profits after the acquisition, then they should all retire early and give control to someone who can. (a room full of pre-schoolers for example)

As I said in my previous posts, there simply wasn't a GOOD reason for Allco's massive decline. Sure they hadn't performed well but the stock was cheap and buying the stock had an element of risk but the current market is risky.



Edit. Since composing this E-mail I'm actually better of than I was prior to christmas 07. Go AFG!!!!

 

[tronic72]

How is this stock related to AXQ?

Is it the same company? Cant find a AXQ thread in this forum,...

Umm what are you talking about??? This is a Allco Finance (AFG) Thread. I think you've either mis-typed or misread, either way you are wrong.

Have a goodie.

 

[tronic72]

Journalists are getting VERYYYY sloppy.

I refer to an Article by Stuart Washington, January 31, 2008 http://business.smh.com.au/tricom-late-again--asx-moves-in/20080130-1p32.html

In which he states "Lenders to Tricom include a the Commonwealth Bank, which extended a $100 million line of credit, and Allco Finance, which extended a $500 million line."

Minutes later I find an article on the same Web Site with the following heading

Allco has not lent funds to Tricom

January 31, 2008 - 10:04AM

Allco Finance Group Ltd says neither the company or funds managing by it have advanced any funds to broker Tricom Equities.

A report in Fairfax newspapers said Allco had extended Tricom a $500 million line of credit, along with Commonwealth Bank which extended $100 million.

"In an article in The Sydney Morning Herald today, the paper incorrectly reports that Allco Finance Group extended a $500 million line to Tricom," Allco said.

"Allco and funds managed by Allco have never advanced or loaned any funds to Tricom."

I've seen many other ASF members bring to our attention this continued sloppy Journalism and think it's nothing short of pathetic. Interestingly the editors don't even bother with a retraction as this sort of thing seems to be becoming the norm for these sorts of Tabloid newspapers.

Edit: I've noticed BNB have also just submitted an announcement that they also aren't creditors to Tricom

 

[prana]

you could argue and b thankful for the media's sloppiness for having push this stock down so far, it's less than half it's bookval. Unfortunately for me, I was a holder prior, but it means opportunity to pick up more - cup is half full still. Part of the game right?

 

[tronic72]

you could argue and b thankful for the media's sloppiness for having push this stock down so far, it's less than half it's bookval. Unfortunately for me, I was a holder prior, but it means opportunity to pick up more - cup is half full still. Part of the game right?

Yeah you could. Unfortunately my money was tied up elsewhere. To those who question the media's ability to sway the market you only have to look at the way AFG went today. Stock was nearly 10% down early when the initial article was posted then turned around almost as soon as the second article claimed they didn't lend Tricom money. Finally it closed 3% up.

Nearly 15% movement on sloppy journalism.

I actually have a crazy conspiracy theory that the Fairfax media are hammering AFG in order to make Challenger Financial more attractive. Crazy..... or NOT!

 

[YELNATS]

I've seen many other ASF members bring to our attention this continued sloppy Journalism and think it's nothing short of pathetic. Interestingly the editors don't even bother with a retraction as this sort of thing seems to be becoming the norm for these sorts of Tabloid newspapers.

Edit: I've noticed BNB have also just submitted an announcement that they also aren't creditors to Tricom

The AFG directors and/management ought to be demanding a retraction of wrong reporting as it's distorting sp values.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yeah you could. Unfortunately my money was tied up elsewhere. To those who question the media's ability to sway the market you only have to look at the way AFG went today. Stock was nearly 10% down early when the initial article was posted then turned around almost as soon as the second article claimed they didn't lend Tricom money. Finally it closed 3% up.

Nearly 15% movement on sloppy journalism.

I actually have a crazy conspiracy theory that the Fairfax media are hammering AFG in order to make Challenger Financial more attractive. Crazy..... or NOT!

Due to the level of paranoia about this stock I deliberately did not reply yesterday, lest my humble bankroll was accused of trying to sell down this can of worms.

The AFR and Australian just report the facts as they are available.

Basically it has been overvalued, had an opaque management structure and delivered unsustainable riches to the undeserving major holders.

Macquarie and Babcock and Brown are in a similar position and will unwind similarly.

In markets generally, the profits to, and fees taken by, directors , in the long run, are inversely proportional to the stock price. The price eventually corrects for corporate excess.

This has happened with AFG.


gg

 

[tronic72]

Due to the level of paranoia about this stock I deliberately did not reply yesterday, lest my humble bankroll was accused of trying to sell down this can of worms.

The AFR and Australian just report the facts as they are available.

Basically it has been overvalued, had an opaque management structure and delivered unsustainable riches to the undeserving major holders.

Macquarie and Babcock and Brown are in a similar position and will unwind similarly.

In markets generally, the profits to, and fees taken by, directors , in the long run, are inversely proportional to the stock price. The price eventually corrects for corporate excess.

This has happened with AFG.


gg

Hmmmm, way to sit on the fence. A call to someone at AFG or Tricom would have told the AFR that Allco has NEVER lent money to Tricom so I fail to see how your comment has any value.

Your sort of fence sitting attitude would make sense if AFG was the only share you were bagging but when you bag the likes of MQG & BNB you show how little you know about those two businesses, all of which have been highly profitable for a long long time and will continue to be so when the commodities boom, bubble bursts.

It might pay to take a trip down from Townsville to see what is actually happening in the real world. Business' aren't falling into the ground. There aren't runs on the banks and believe it or not, banks are still more than happy to lend the likes of AFG, BNB & MQG more money for one simple reason; they make money and lots of it and this in turn has helped the banks make record profits year in and year out.

I do agree with you that these sort of business' could benefit from greater transparency and I also agree that AFG's management hasn't done a good job recently (a fact they admitted in their last AGM). It's also obvious that the likes of AFG, BNB & MQG will have a harder time to get the funds that lending institutions have been so keen to give them in the past. One could argue that this will only give share holders more confidence in future business decisions for these sort of businesses.

Finally, I wonder why people like yourself feel the need to post in threads for stocks they obviously don't like. If you don't like the channel, change it, don't sit there complaining about it.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hmmmm, way to sit on the fence. A call to someone at AFG or Tricom would have told the AFR that Allco has NEVER lent money to Tricom so I fail to see how your comment has any value.

Your sort of fence sitting attitude would make sense if AFG was the only share you were bagging but when you bag the likes of MQG & BNB you show how little you know about those two businesses, all of which have been highly profitable for a long long time and will continue to be so when the commodities boom, bubble bursts.

It might pay to take a trip down from Townsville to see what is actually happening in the real world. Business' aren't falling into the ground. There aren't runs on the banks and believe it or not, banks are still more than happy to lend the likes of AFG, BNB & MQG more money for one simple reason; they make money and lots of it and this in turn has helped the banks make record profits year in and year out.

I do agree with you that these sort of business' could benefit from greater transparency and I also agree that AFG's management hasn't done a good job recently (a fact they admitted in their last AGM). It's also obvious that the likes of AFG, BNB & MQG will have a harder time to get the funds that lending institutions have been so keen to give them in the past. One could argue that this will only give share holders more confidence in future business decisions for these sort of businesses.

Finally, I wonder why people like yourself feel the need to post in threads for stocks they obviously don't like. If you don't like the channel, change it, don't sit there complaining about it.

Thanks Tronic,

I'm sorry if you feel I've bagged your share. As I said before its a stock, an object that is to be bought or sold, or in this case shorted, margin loaned, geared, optioned, warranted etc.

Its directors have been slowly roasted in the AFR and Australian.

Its stock price has been savaged.

This is a stock forum, not a stock or share fan club, so you have to accept the negative views of your stock as well as the positive.

As with any stock I would buy it or short it if I found it was to be profitable to me to do so. Before you get on to ASIC, no I don't own it ..yet, and have never shorted it.

I don't see how a trip "down from Townsville" would do me any good. This place is booming, a beautiful place to live and I have Aussiestockforums.com any where in Australia.

I have an interest in Technical Analysis and for whats its worth if you look at the attached chart the time to buy this stock was when the little blue bars went above the little red 30 day average line, equally the time to get out was when the little blue bars went below the little red line.

Thus the time to get out was in late November or early December 2007.


As John Lennon would have said if he had owned this stock and seen its price fall

“When you're drowning, you don't say 'I would be incredibly pleased if someone would have the foresight to notice me drowning and come and help me,' you just scream.”..... John Lennon

gg

 

[kash]

Tading Halt. What could this be about? Does anyone know? Why would it be now until wednesday when their report is due thursday.

 

[Pager]

Well I'm not optimistic, any announcement doesn't look promising from recent events, rumour and of course the SP slide, no smoke without fire, but does seem odd coming 1 day before they report ???.

I'm caught good and proper with this stock, many brokers were very bullish about it only 2 or 3 months ago, was a long term hold for me but may have to look to bail out if there is bad news.

Hopefully I'm wrong and any news is the rocket up the **** it needs

 

[Bolivia]

IMHO, it would be highly unlikely in the current enviroment, and scrutiny they have been under, that Allco would come out 3 days before their results and tell the market something bad. The directors would all be sued from here to breakfast time if they suddenly found a new grissly bear in the cupboard. Very unlikely.

Therefore one has to ask, why would they possibly be going into a trading halt?

3 Options:
1. Management Buyout/Takeover - The airline leasing model would be very attractive as well as the talent pool Allco has.
2. New re-financing arrangements for the 250mill debt due.
3. Some new large purchase which they will sell into a fund. They will tell the market that this is evidence that the Allco model is still alive and well, and that the current enviroment is presenting opportunities rather than dismay.

 

[chilliaa]

Finally, I wonder why people like yourself feel the need to post in threads for stocks they obviously don't like. If you don't like the channel, change it, don't sit there complaining about it.

[/QUOTE]

Buddy im not sure i understand this comment. Are you suggesting that we should only hype one another up with positive feelings about a stock?????
Or that if we dont like a stock, we should just ignore any postings made concerning that stock??? Why shouldnt we post our concerns???