AEV - Avenira Limited

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

My feeling is that RP is doing what just about every other commodity has done in giving up all the 2008 spike premium. I think we will see a return to the 50 to 100 USD/T mark of 2007 in spite of the efforts of the king of Morroco to turn back the tide... his middle name isn't Canute is it?

I agree JBN, it will return to the long term ave at some point. I mean, there's **** loads of this stuff in the ground, once the prospective mines get into full operation the supply will naturally reduce prices. However, there may be a period of sustained higher prices till that occurs. One year? Five years? Hopefully for MAK it's around the five year mark at which time they may be able to reduce opex sufficiently to keep profitable. The other side of the coin is demand of course, and at the moment, no one wants to spend money on anything. How long does that last? Lots of assumptions to be made for this one.

Good to see AD converting all his options and spending $200K plus. Hope he didn't borrow money from Opes to do that....

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I agree JBN, it will return to the long term ave at some point. I mean, there's **** loads of this stuff in the ground, once the prospective mines get into full operation the supply will naturally reduce prices. However, there may be a period of sustained higher prices till that occurs. One year? Five years? Hopefully for MAK it's around the five year mark at which time they may be able to reduce opex sufficiently to keep profitable. The other side of the coin is demand of course, and at the moment, no one wants to spend money on anything. How long does that last? Lots of assumptions to be made for this one.

Good to see AD converting all his options and spending $200K plus. Hope he didn't borrow money from Opes to do that....

farmers r still pretty liquid, in nz and aus anyway. low dollar, hi beef and milk prices etc. u still need fertilisers unless people stop eating.
RP is pretty good stuff too, just dump it on and it doesnt leach away too quick.
if farmers feel the pinch, they just dont buy too many new tractors, cars and boats for that year.
easy quantities of phosphate/poo, has to be a finite resource. the best deposits went years ago from memory.
it doesnt dissapear like oil, etc, but goes out to sea or down below, and many many years before it builds up again. so basically its best to classify it as a finite resource which is being used up like hydrocarbons. a bell curve.
at least with metals u can reuse/recycle them relatively easily.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Having a nice run today!

Up 25% to 0.61.5 with nearly 1mill traded

Dont think theres any news due at the moment and doesnt seem to leak prior to ann, so who knows?

Ive noticed that the softs seem to of hit a bottom about 2/3 weeks ago

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes it was a nice day today, be nice to see that a few days in a row. They got an asx query on it and gave a couple of interesting reasons for it.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes it was a nice day today, be nice to see that a few days in a row. They got an asx query on it and gave a couple of interesting reasons for it.

I wonder if next time it tanks 20% it'll get a query?



Reasons given were people selling shares to convert options. Reasonable I suppose, except that was in Dec, not yesterday...

And they are in negotiations for a feasability plan on a railway from TC to Wonarah. That's going to cost a bucket.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I wonder if next time it tanks 20% it'll get a query?



Reasons given were people selling shares to convert options. Reasonable I suppose, except that was in Dec, not yesterday...

And they are in negotiations for a feasability plan on a railway from TC to Wonarah. That's going to cost a bucket.

on first impressions i thought the possible railway option was positive. the way it was worded. plus its only an option.

the asx query was a good chance for him to drop a few hints anyway or a bit of free press. it was a better read than most responses anyway.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

also these r projects big farmer co-operatives should come in one.
its the way nowadays, control the sun and water right down to the sale of the last piece of steak or bottle of milk.
a lot of it will be exported but australasia will use plenty of it. nz imports all its fertilisers, only has lime and dolomite(lime with loads of magnesium).
farmers r holding off fertilising properties in australasia as they know prices will come back(in nz i was told by ravensdown to hold off till well into next year as the local works had a big expensive stockpile it had to chew thru before new, cheaper stocks become available). so any usage data will be artificial for a period.

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes thats what I meant by interesting, there was no obvious reason for it but took the opportunity to give a couple of small plugs, that may have helped todays gains

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm in 2 minds about the effort to build the railway.

Firstly, I think good long term thinking and if they can get the funds for it, woop woop.

Secondly, this was only ever going to be stage 2 of the development. Not first. Why change? Reason their minds have changed could be that they realise RP prices are going to tank and it won't be economical. So, road transport wil not be an option.

If two is the answer, and the funding's not there and RP comes off significantly.....

Anyway, I've got no idea how much 250km of rail would cost. Perhaps tigerboi's train driver cousin will know.



HIGHLIGHTS

Minemakers and Australian
Transport and Energy Corridor
Ltd (“ATEC”) have signed an
MOU covering a financial study
of the economics of a 250km
open access standard gauge
rail link from the Wonarah
Phosphate Project to near
Tennant Creek.

ATEC will manage the study.
Should the outcome of the
study be positive, ATEC would
manage the approvals process,
financing and construction of
the rail link.

The rail link would be expected
to lower materially
Minemakers’ operating costs
and could potentially allow
higher production output than
the 3Mtpa limit otherwise set
by road haulage.

 

[Mozi]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Anyway, I've got no idea how much 250km of rail would cost.

I have no real idea either, but can offer this comparison from the Alice Springs to Darwin railway construction (info from http://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/programs/rail/alice.aspx plus my own interest in the project):

- Construction began in 2001;
- Said to have cost $1.3 billion;
- Is 1420km long

Based on the above, the 250km Wonarah link would cost ~$230m, BUT ...

Factors that make the Wonarah link CHEAPER (per km) than the Alice to Darwin link:

- No big rivers to cross (no need for large or even small bridges)
- No flood plains to cross (makes for better ground conditions to build on, and will require substantially less culverts etc)
- No ("mountain") ranges to dissect, hence less cut and fill

Factors that make the Wonarah link more EXPENSIVE than the Alice to Darwin link:

- Increases in material costs since 2001
- Less "economies of scale" for 250km vs 1500km project
- Possibly no government grants (was ~43% on Alice-Darwin), hence higher cost to service debt - which has become a real issue with the Alice to Darwin link!

I'm sure others can think of other reasons for cost increases or decreases, but at least this should provide you with a very rough idea.

I don't have any financial interest in MAK or either railway project, at this stage.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

i've a civil degree, i havnt practiced much but it seems a dead easy project, flat, crap environment, just run the dozer, throw down yr lines.
its close to a line too, so bring in all yr sleepers, rails etc in on rail.
but then to me many things seem simple.
obviously being flat, and no nasty off land construction, its an easy do.
also the gov needs to pend its way out of recession, plus construction companies have little work. i'd screw them down to half last yrs price due to this slowdown.
also as a byline, if yr rails ain't too flat, u just run yr wagons slower.
rail is so cheap to operate, esp. if u control it.

god this info, the option of a line, is leaked so badly over here. my useless mates tell me squat. 250k of it isnt much either and saves double handling the product, ie truck loading, then offloading to wagons.

i like the idea of a big phosphate mine in this climate.

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

economies of scale dont hit this option either so much, like u don't need major machinery to bring in, and its easy to bring in.
i would assume its on pretty hard/consolidated terraferma too.
also there has to be plenty of contractors who could do this job dead easy from previous rail jobs.
i take yr point tho kennas re a posible reevaluation of delivery costs motivating this, plus the need for extra capital.
but i'd say some extra info has leaked out on the motivations for this and its logistics re funding.

 

[Dezza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Seems like MAK has slowed down on this forum. High option conversion, Qtrly released a week ago with relatively positive news but the SP continues to trickle down.

AD must be busy these days...haven't heard him on a broadcast for a while.

Not looking too healthy at the moment. Keep waiting till 2010...

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Seems like MAK has slowed down on this forum. High option conversion, Qtrly released a week ago with relatively positive news but the SP continues to trickle down.

AD must be busy these days...haven't heard him on a broadcast for a while.

Not looking too healthy at the moment. Keep waiting till 2010...

No dezza, looking pretty sick. People are factoring in that they won't get the operation up and running and/or not have any customers to buy their poo. If they do manage to start digging the stuff up and be selling 1-3Mt a year at over $250 ish a ton then looks pretty cheap. If it doesn't work out, then back to pre Wonarah hype levels I suppose.

 

[Dezza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yeah, unfortunately that's the case with MAK. There's a lot of 'ifs' and buts' between now and 2010, assuming it does get running by then.

 

[Dezza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Some relatively positive news out today, with another step closer to DSO.

Capital costs outlined as well.

Still, not much volume so far...

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

so with the report, any comments kennas?
seems they are outsourcing everything, not ideal, but maybe in this climate it will be cheaper than raising capital.
i'd like to see a white knight to come in, like some farmers co-op(ie fonterra...must be far more lucrative than investing in china's dodgy corrupt industries and having your technical expertise/technology ripped off and confiscated and then having the country try to tarnish your brand).
little chance i presume sadly.

 

[JTLP]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

That's a very cleverly worded ann.

Trying to shore up the amount of DSO they have so the capex and initial mining costs are lower (compared to non DSO).

Seems they are pretty pleased with the Arruwurra deposit grades and hope to turn that into something quick as well.

The outsourcing is favourable in this market. As soon as they throw around that word debt it's going to be a negative. By stating that outsourcing will minimize costs...people are favourable of the situation.

Wonder how much DSO they have and would love to see an expenditure chart/table (guess that will come with feasibility studies) for when the DSO is gone and they have to pull the lesser quality ore out of the ground...

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

so with the report, any comments kennas?
seems they are outsourcing everything, not ideal, but maybe in this climate it will be cheaper than raising capital.
i'd like to see a white knight to come in, like some farmers co-op(ie fonterra...must be far more lucrative than investing in china's dodgy corrupt industries and having your technical expertise/technology ripped off and confiscated and then having the country try to tarnish your brand).
little chance i presume sadly.

I'm in two minds on some information flowing from various sources right now.

The drill results are good in that it's clearly over their targetted 25%, but by my understanding DSO is over 28%, so while just a few % may not be a biggy with some simple beneficiation, it's extra work. Then the widths aren't that flash 1-4m with 10-28m overburden. Now, the deposit is over a massive area like a big pancake, there's a poo load of dirt to remove to get to that DSO. I'm not sure why they aren't including the other minerals in the results. This is important to the quality of the product and it's saleability. At the moment it looks like they're being slack, or there's a pile of impurities.

On the surface of it however, looks like they think all things are a goer, if RP stays up enough. Which brings me to.....

IPL announced today they they have had a big falloff in interest for poo due to various reasons. Mostly because people don't want poo.

Particularly they saw future DAP prices coming off significantly in the immediate future. DAP needs RP. Thus, RP will come off. I'm not sure of the direct correlation but others will know, and I'm searching.... But, I have the feeling ... eeeeek!

Having said that, IPL see there being a bottom in the market for their products this year (salt yourself) and recovery in the second half, I think. So, if you have a long term view, and MAK coming into production in 2010 ish ish, then prices may be back on the way up.

Will 100m capex come at the bottom of the cylce?

 

[shag]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

thanks for that. i need some cash so i'll see.
its like i said, no farmer is going to throw on overpriced old stocks of fertiliser untill they absolutely need to. phosphate hangs around unlike urea(nitrogen) too. i'd guess many will hoard their cash for a year at least for pastoral farmers.
someone needs to question drummond on the impurities.