AEV - Avenira Limited

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not sure about OK today. Needed to be surprisingly good and this isn't to me. This is well factored in. Hope I'm wrong.

I'm right.



But still intraday.

Might end ok, or not.

Chart wise goin no where but to the dunny.

 

[muzzza]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm right.



But still intraday.

Might end ok, or not.

Chart wise goin no where but to the dunny.

I take it your a holder Kennas.. Was having a look into this one but can't seem to get on top of it.. Expected it to go up today but going down..

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I take it your a holder Kennas.. Was having a look into this one but can't seem to get on top of it.. Expected it to go up today but going down..

Yes, bought 100s of 1000s of these about 3 years ago. Still holding a few, but just a fraction of my original holdings, but still significant. I thought being 'free carried' meant you could be happy with watching a stock go pear. Not the case. I'm going out to buy one of these tomorrow to remind me.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK still being sold due to market conditions and maybe justifiable for the update on Wonarah approximate costs. AD reakons they're being conservative on the $150tn capex, but do these things EVER come in on budget forcast a year or so in advance?

However, I'm tending to agree with long term prospects for poo products once the market hits a bottom, sometime between now and July 3009 perhaps. Opps, was that a 3? eeeeeek!

In the Oz today:

Phosphate market set to remain tight
PURE SPECULATION: Robin Bromby | December 22, 2008
Article from: The Australian

KING Mohammed VI of Morocco, it was reported recently, is the fifth wealthiest royal in the world with his personal $US1.5 billion fortune based largely on selling phosphate, of which his country is the world's largest producer.

He -- and Morocco -- plan to remain the Saudi Arabia of phosphate. The North African state is apparently refusing to budge from its asking price of $US400 a tonne of phosphate rock.

Rock has gone from $US200/t this time last year to $US400 in March; $US500 in June. There have been reports that Jordan has been selling at $US350/t but, if the Moroccans stick to their guns, the market will be tight.

In the short term this might not matter, as the world in recent months has been under-fertilising. The cost of fertilisers, along with the inability of farmers (in the US particularly) to get loans to buy this product, has resulted in big cuts to applications on farm land.

This will, inevitably, affect crop yields and already bodies such as the Food & Agricultural Organisation are warning of increased famine around the world. It was a sign of the times that earlier this month New York-listed The Mosaic Co, the world's largest producer of phosphates, reported a 38 per cent drop in sales volumes for the preceding three months.

As for local investors, they have -- after initially leaping head-first into anything related to phosphate and potash -- gone quite lukewarm on the whole idea of soft commodities (another "stronger for longer" busted flush).

The news out of Warrnambool Cheese & Butter Factory (WCB) after Friday's close won't help. Business there has "softened considerably" due to the unexpected and substantial reduction in world dairy prices over the past few weeks.

There will also be write-downs of inventory and adjustments of foreign exchange contracts to take into account the dollar depreciation.

The stock, which went above $5 on the news that WCB was going to own half of Dairy Farmers' cheese business, closed at $3.78.

BUT Andrew Drummond, who runs Minemakers (MAK), is not worried by this. The world has got to eat, and the imperatives of food production will, he argues, mean that phosphate prices will be off again within 12 months. Incidentally, the world's largest potash producer, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, is predicting shortages in the next few years as fertiliser demand recovers.

Drummond believes he can get phosphate rock from the Wonarah project across the wharves at Darwin for around $US100/t. The company claims to have Australia's largest phosphate resource at 461 million tonnes and he is now looking to raise around $100 million to allow the first phosphate to be loaded on a train to Darwin in just over 12 months.

 

[kirtdog]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

whats the future looking like?? personally would think theyre on the way back up but would like some1 elses opinion before i look to buy in..

 

[eric35]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Personally, I would not get into MAK yet. I would prefer to wait until the sp moves up a bit with bigger volume.

The daily chart does not look good at all. I tried to insert the chart here, but did not know how.

regards

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Personally, I would not get into MAK yet. I would prefer to wait until the sp moves up a bit with bigger volume.

The daily chart does not look good at all. I tried to insert the chart here, but did not know how.

regards

Eric, do a search on 'how to install charts in three easy steps' and you'll be on top of it.

I agree with you on the comment on MAK. It's in a medium to long term down trend and teatering on some support which if broken looks disasterous. As a new investor I wouldn't be buying anything in this climate for anything other than a short term trade with a tight stop, or a 10 year horizon.

The funnymentals of many companies have been shot to pieces by the credit crisis, which doesn't look to be over any time soon and has hardly touched Australia, yet. Just a question of how much of the known unknowns are factored in...

In the LONG term, I think RP prices will hold up enough to make this economincal, but there's potential for farmers to all go bankrupt along with the rest of us shortly, and not be buying any type of **** to grow their unwanted crops....

Or, grab the knife, and see how much blood you can lose before carking it.



(no buy or sell recommendations intended)

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Personally, I would not get into MAK yet. I would prefer to wait until the sp moves up a bit with bigger volume.

The daily chart does not look good at all. I tried to insert the chart here, but did not know how.

regards

Eric, do a search on 'how to install charts in three easy steps' and you'll be on top of it.

I agree with you on the comment on MAK. It's in a medium to long term down trend and teatering on some support which if broken looks disasterous. As a new investor I wouldn't be buying anything in this climate for anything other than a short term trade with a tight stop, or a 10 year horizon.

The funnymentals of many companies have been shot to pieces by the credit crisis, which doesn't look to be over any time soon and has hardly touched Australia, yet. Just a question of how much of the known unknowns are factored in...

In the LONG term, I think RP prices will hold up enough to make this economincal, but there's potential for farmers to all go bankrupt along with the rest of us shortly, and not be buying any type of **** to grow their unwanted crops....

Or, grab the knife, and see how much blood you can lose before carking it.

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes it's hard to make a call on this one, but i'm of the opinion that phosphate eventually has to be used to keep world food production in order, one of the reasons phosphate has dropped off is as farmers have tried to grow crops especially corn without phosphate as the costs were very high but in return have gotten very low yields. Its also a bad time of the year to judge phosphate pricing. But I'm banking on once we get back into the main period of phosphate use that demand goes back up and in turn pricing. These guys have currently got about 100 mil in the bank and debt free but will need to raise funds a bit down the track. I've got a fair bit of this stock and holding for the long term.

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Anyone got any thoughts here on potential with Uranium, MAK hold a couple of sites in Tasmania and discovered some more in November at one of the sites. Just wondering if it may come into play with the price of Uranium going up.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Anyone got any thoughts here on potential with Uranium, MAK hold a couple of sites in Tasmania and discovered some more in November at one of the sites. Just wondering if it may come into play with the price of Uranium going up.

HI Looks good

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS -4.8 -11.0 9.0 488.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2008 ended with MAK at 47c and option pressure is now
out of the way.
2009 with DSO and in production will be see a huge result
for MAK with RP at 300 USD.
NPAT= (300-100)x3,000,000x.8x.7= 336m USD
= 480m AUD

On PE of 5 and 150m fully diluted shares
is a share price of

$16.00

Thx

MS

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

HI Looks good

2008 ended with MAK at 47c and option pressure is now
out of the way.
2009 with DSO and in production will be see a huge result
for MAK with RP at 300 USD.
NPAT= (300-100)x3,000,000x.8x.7= 336m USD
= 480m AUD

On PE of 5 and 150m fully diluted shares
is a share price of

$16.00

Thx

MS

MS, there's a number of faults with that back of the envelope valuation.

Firstly, opex will be around $150, not $100 as guessed.

Then, the DSO and shares on issue assumptions are very optimistic. One hole bringing back over 28% does not make a DSO operation. Non DSO will lead to the need for a beneficiation plant, which could quadruple the shares on issue on a financing.

Looks like a HC ramp to me.

(holding)

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

$16 a share also when the director bought those shares on your chart phosphate was about $1100/tonne its now around $400/tonne on low demand, would be nice to see it stop dropping and head upward a little would be good for the SP of MAK.

Hey Kennas you got any thoughts on MAK and Uranium ?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

$16 a share also when the director bought those shares on your chart phosphate was about $1100/tonne its now around $400/tonne on low demand, would be nice to see it stop dropping and head upward a little would be good for the SP of MAK.

Hey Kennas you got any thoughts on MAK and Uranium ?

Hey Justiceop, thats true

Btw do you know any free up to date live price history charts of phoshate etc?

thx

MS

 

[kam75]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

We haven't had a higher-high, higher-low to suggest a change of trend yet but if I was a gambler, i'd reckon it's hit bottom around the 40c level.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Justiceotp
I think youll find that DAP was priced at $1100.00 a tonne,not rock phosphate.(RP)

My research shows me that the high for RP was about $500.00 us a tonne out of Morrocco in about june/ july 08

As far as i can see, i think that the last price quoted was $350.00 us a tonne out of Jordon, not sure of latest price out of Morrocco.

IMHO this share has potential but still a speccy,if all goes well it could fly,need to find out quality of RP re contaminates also DSO if they have it and how much?also opex and capex are still up in the air

They do have other options other than RP but i dont believe any $ value has been attributed to these The minemakers website has heaps of info,very proactive management imho

 

[Solarfuture]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Phosphate demand from Asia still is looking strong!
Bleow is the planned purchase in 2009 in Vietnam.
"1.6 million tonnes of phosphate"

http://www.nhandan.com.vn/english/business/030109/investment_v.htm


Last updated: 16:37 - January 3, 2009


Vietnam to import 750,000 tonnes of urea



Nhan Dan - Vietnam will have to import only 750,000 tonnes of urea in 2009, according to estimations by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The ministry estimates that Vietnam will need around 7.8 million tonnes of fertiliser in 2009, including 1.7 million tonnes of urea, 1.85 million tonnes of NPK and 0.7 million tonnes of DAP, 1.6 million tonnes of phosphate.

Currently, Ninh Binh and Phu My urea fertiliser plants can produce 0.95 million tonnes of urea annually

The country will also have to import 0.45-0.5 million tonnes of DAP. For other fertiliser such as phosphate and NPK, domestic plants can meet domestic demands.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Anyone have any news of what Morocco is up to with their phosphate production? They were producing 29 million tonne per annum and exporting half of that.

They are looking at ramping up production. Any ideas on how they are going with that? I think that will influence the future price of rock phoshate as more supply comes on board from the worlds largest exporter.......time will tell.

Nice start to the summer storm season on the eastern side of our country, and the weather man is now calling a La Nina (hope I spelt that right).

Vietnam seems to be up to things with Morocco too...

Vietnam and Morocco signed a deal in July 2008 that will lead to the construction of a US$600mn fertiliser plant in Morocco to supply Vietnam and neighbouring South East Asian countries. Vietnamese state media reported that an investment agreement was to be signed in August 2008 between OCP and PetroVietnam Fertiliser and Chemical Company to build a diammonium phosphate facility within the north African nation. The plant will produce up to 1mn tonnes of fertiliser per annum once fully operational in 2011. State media have said that this will be Vietnam’s largest foreign investment project to date.

Earlier, OCP said in February 2008 that it was inviting foreign companies to invest in its Jorf Phosphate Hub at Jorf Lasfar outside Casablanca. The state-owned company said it was planning US$2.5bn worth of investments in the next five years. OCP’s aim was to attract foreign investment from companies interested in gaining access to low-cost phosphate products, along with tax and real estate benefits. OCP produces around 27.3mn tonnes of raw phosphate per annum, giving it a 47.2% share of world output of the mineral, a 47.2% share of world phosphoric acid output, and a 9.5% share of world fertiliser output.

 

[justiceotp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes Adam sorry that is DAP pricing and I get it from
http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html
Its hard to find a rock phosphate price.

Solar, in the article it says Vietnam will be importing Urea and 0.5 million tonnes of DAP but isn't the rest being sourced produced internally?

 

[J.B.Nimble]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

To produce DAP, first react your crushed rock phosphate with sulphuric acid (H2SO4) to make phosphoric acid (H3PO4). Find a market for the waste gypsum (CaSO4) to offset your costs and then set about the next step. React the Phosphoric acid with Ammonia (NH3) produced from natural gas. Dry and granulate the solid product and slap a DAP label on the bag....

On the one hand - DAP is a highly processed form of phosphate and involves some heavy duty chemical plant and other valuable raw materials. RP is but a fraction of the mix and the value. If DAP price is down then RP price is probably down in similar trend...

On the other hand - think about the raw materials we're talking about here - Sulphur (raw material for sulphuric acid) spiked from 100 $/T to 700-800 $/T by August before crashing back to 100 $/T in recent times. Natural gas (raw material for ammonia) spiked up from 7 $/mmBTU to 13.5 and now back to 5.5 (MYMEX prices over similar time frame) so maybe the drop in DAP is all about drop in sulphur and gas price and due to manufacturers struggling to fill their capacity...

As much as I search for RP prices the only things that seem to pop up on Google are statements about the FOB Morrocco price from none other than Andrew Drummond. Wish I could find some independent source - meantime I'm left to speculate...

My feeling is that RP is doing what just about every other commodity has done in giving up all the 2008 spike premium. I think we will see a return to the 50 to 100 USD/T mark of 2007 in spite of the efforts of the king of Morroco to turn back the tide... his middle name isn't Canute is it?

MAK can probably get out of the starting blocks faster than most greenfield phosphate projects but to what end in the current environment.