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AEV - Avenira Limited

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Re: MAK - Minemakers



Kenna's,

The market gets it wrong all the time. People need to simply follow announcements thoroughly to keep informed. DSO was never meant to be for the entire area and has only been mentioned that a small area MIGHT be DSO.

Either way it doesn't change time frames to production, it only changes CAPEX. All much of a muchness IMO.

Now that results have come back from the extended drilling at wonarah they can see even greater potential for DSO out there with grades over 35%.

All in all a great result so far exceeding expectations all round.

Let's just see what the PFS and scoping study results come up with.

I'm confident that they will also show up to be extremely robust.

Champ
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

One of the pro's in Minemaker's favour is likely that it will be much cheaper to commission a minesite/processing plant in a year or so. Materials will be cheaper, construction delays will be reduced, there will likely be a significant pool of skilled workers looking for work (possibly desperate) so labour/payroll costs could be scaled back and the competition between construction/engineering firms to land large projects will be intense.

In short, if Minemaker's feasibility is successful (the above factors will make that more likely), they can raise the capital and the phosphate prices don't tank then they will be in a very good position when things eventually turn around.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Bit of a curly triangle thing happening here. Hopefully it's a break up. Would be really happy to see a higher high above 77 ish cents....

Hopefully a good JORC for the Main Zone will assist...

Due sometime soon....
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

Does anyone have the link or know how to access a recent broker report that had some pretty negative stuff to say about minemakers? Not that I am worried about these brokers, maybe some interesting reading though!
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Green Machine said:
Does anyone have the link or know how to access a recent broker report that had some pretty negative stuff to say about minemakers? Not that I am worried about these brokers, maybe some interesting reading though!
Click to expand...
No, but from what I saw of it, the analyst is toast.

Claimed $1b capex which is just tripe.

He'll be driving a taxi next week.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Thanks Tasweb, I would imagine this would be it. I am involved in the ag industry in W.A. the word is from major local suppliers that phosphate prices will drop in February, but to what extent we don't know, hard to imagine it finding the levels that the broker mentioned anytime soon though given the fundamentals.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Where can you find current phosphate pricing?

And what effect if any should the Acquiring of 80% equity in the Fraser Iron Project have on the share price?
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

justiceotp said:
Where can you find current phosphate pricing?

And what effect if any should the Acquiring of 80% equity in the Fraser Iron Project have on the share price?
Click to expand...


Easy one first - Fraser Iron - minimal impact. In the short to medium term all sp action will be a function of the phosphate story.

A little harder - Rock phosphate prices hard to find but recent announcements from CII would give cause for concern.

On October 21 they report a profit surge for the quarter ended Sept 30 on the back of strong phosphate prices

On October 30
"The company advises that it has had a sharp and marked deterioration in demand for our phosphate products as a consequence of the global financial instability now seriously affecting our Malaysian and Indonesian markets."

On November 20
"The Company advises that it will implement a shutdown of its operations on Christmas Island for the period from 22 December 2008 until 3 February 2009 due to the lack of demand from our Malaysian and Indonesian markets as a consequence of the global financial crisis."

You can draw your own conclusions as to what is happening to rock phosphate prices but a significant retreat seems to be on the cards...
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

J.B.Nimble said:
You can draw your own conclusions as to what is happening to rock phosphate prices but a significant retreat seems to be on the cards...
Click to expand...
Cripes, that's slightly unexpected. I never thought the price would stay so bouyant, but wouldn't have expected producers to be closing shop over a lack of demand.

How the heck can they go in one month from record profit, to the next closing shop?

Other quotes...

21 Oct:

“Our investment in PRL has continued to perform well, and this quarter has set the foundation for an outstanding year ahead,” continued Mr Brown.

29 Oct:

The Board remains optimistic that the company can weather the current storms and continue to maintain a sound financia blase into the future provided demandr ebounds within a reasonable timeframe and access to the resources on Christmas lslandc ontinue to be made available to us by the Commonwealt Governmenot on a commercially realistic basis.


But since 20 Nov there SP has hardly moved. It should have tanked.


Short term this kind of development may seriously effect MAKs immediate objectives.

We're assuming it's the same product, and there's no extraneous circumstances the Malaysian and Indonesian companies have gone through to have to stop delivery? The lack of information in those reports is pretty ordinary....
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

WRONG'UN said:
Reference for fertilizer prices - check out the 20 Nov report - not looking too flash!
http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/index.html
Click to expand...
Short term it doesn't look like total death and destruction, but weaker.


The graph looks a bit toppy going into mid 09...

Wonder what alchemy they've used to come up with that projection?
 

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Re: MAK - Minemakers

Oh well maybe they can make some money out of the Uranium they announced today then. Hoping these guys come out of it all OK bought a fair bit of them for the long haul.
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

justiceotp said:
Oh well maybe they can make some money out of the Uranium they announced today then. Hoping these guys come out of it all OK bought a fair bit of them for the long haul.
Click to expand...

The Fraser iron announcement is all very nice but a bit long termish. Then along comes the Uranium announcement which doesn't seem to add up to much - feels like a bit of a pump to keep the options in the money until expiry at end of December. I expect the Wonarah JORC and scoping study will be towards the end of December for similar reason. I still like this for the long term but the volatility is starting to make my head spin...
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

greenmachine, this is copy of the original recommendation by Walker.

"Minemakers (MAK)

We are starting to see a sharp downturn in demand for phosphate products as a result of the global credit crisis. MAK is still quoting prices of US$450-to-US$500 a tonne free on board from Morocco. While this may be the case right now, the next round of price negotiations will almost certainly see a sharp fall in the price of phosphate. The MAK operation was always going to be high cost, and with little chance of raising the $1 billion of capital expenditure required anytime soon, this project is going nowhere fast. For those still sitting on a 300 per cent gain prior to the initial phosphate announcement, we recommend you take your sizable profit.

Brett Walker
STATE ONE STOCKBROKING"


note it has been ammended, and the revised version calls to 50/t RP pricing for its logic, also bogus IMO.

regards
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes, the offending brokers report was rightly discredited as a piece of trash. As AD pointed out the guy clearly hadn't read the announcments or he would have understood that the intended development was going to be perhaps 50million rather than the billion dollar development that he mentioned. As AD points out this is the clear distinction between Wonarah and competing phosphate projects.

And he is probably jumping a bit ahead to claim a retreat back to $50/T for RP prices.

However, in the short term RP prices do have a big questionmark. RP prices are hard to find but DAP is probably a good pointer. Prices are now 450 to 500 USD/T and heading south - down from 1000 USD/T not so long ago. Given that RP is a feed stock for production of DAP there should be a correlation to DAP prices. At 450 to 500 USD/T we are back to the prices prevailing between April 07 and Jan 08. RP prices at that time...? MAKs presentations have a chart showing RP moving from about 75 USD/T in September07 up to 150 USD/T in December 07. At this price we are back in to marginal territory - for the short term at least.

In the meantime we have a whole bunch of options set to exercise by Dec 31. There seems to be a steady stream of announcements coming through to keep the interest up until they have the cash. I doubt that we will hear any mention of RP price until early in the new year at which stage the immediate fund collection issue has been dealt with.

As the options are exercised we will probably see bit of downward pressure on sp with profit taking.

In the short term I am expecting a move down. After that, who knows...
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK due for resource upgrade at Wonarah.

Already have over 200Mt which is supposed to be significantly expanded. I wonder if they'll pluck the billions of tons inferred by the previous owners pre JORC.

Last pres regarding timelines etc:

100% owned by Minemakers

Currently 203Mt JORC compliant Inferred Resource
Substantial resource increases expected to be announced by year end
Aiming for production in 2010
Development favoured by key infrastructure already in
place

Major Project Status granted by Government

Aiming to be a low CAPEX producer
Stage 1 production planned at 3Mtpa
Expanding studies to include Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) alternative so as to minimise CAPEX and enhance early production capability
Targeting Asian markets where we have a freight advantage
Supportive Traditional Owners
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

See the new announcement this morning.

Main Zone Deposit Quadrupled
and focusing on early start

should do alright today
 
Re: MAK - Minemakers

justiceotp said:
See the new announcement this morning.

Main Zone Deposit Quadrupled
and focusing on early start

should do alright today
Click to expand...

Good tonnage, but grades just OK. Previous was 23%...

Likely opex at the top end of my liking, and will probably expand.

Question is, will RP stay well above $150 tn to keep it feasable? The way DAP is going, who knows. Fingers crossed farmers keep buying **** for their lawns.

I'm not sure about OK today. Needed to be surprisingly good and this isn't to me. This is well factored in. Hope I'm wrong.


ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
WONARAH PHOSPHATE PROJECT
RESOURCE INCREASE, MINE PLANNING AND COSTS UPDATE
18 December 2008

HIGHLIGHTS
• Major increase in inferred resource at Main Zone Deposit – quadrupled to
330Mt at 18.9% P2O5
• Minemakers now has Australia’s biggest phosphate resource: combined
with the Arruwurra Deposit it totals 461Mt
• Focus now on early start, Stage 1 Direct Shipping Ore operation
• Beneficiation project planned as Stage 2 operation
• Ongoing studies on Direct Shipping Ore indentify capital costs of AU$75 -
$100M and operating costs of about AU$150 per tonne
• Targeting first production in about a year
 
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