AEV - Avenira Limited

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I think your last post somes up the situation perfectly kennas

I am a long term holder and my profits have dropped considerably

If it wasnt for my own personal research (and that of others)i would of set my stop at about the $1.92 mark and would now be out

For better or for worse I have no line drawn in the sand

Geez it was fun thou at those heady days of $2.50 plus

Time will tell

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I tell you what, i was at work and I got a call from the missus telling me they were at 1.80...... my mouth dropped.

I bought more... today.. at the wrong price though... 2.04. Might buy some more tomorrow.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Wrong price today, correct

Wrong price tomorrow or the next day, maybe

wrong price in a few months time imho no

Fundamentally i cant see whats really changed,the more i look into my reasons for holding and the future world requirements for fertilizer (not to mention maks other projects in tassie and WA) the more im convinced.

I remember that sick feeling when i bought a few at 0.62c only to see them drop back to 0.42c (approx)

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ - calling the phosphate sector the poo sector isn't far off the mark. After all, most phosphate deposits are formed originally from either animal poo (usually birds) or from skeletal remains of marine animals and their waste products. I know when I was with WMC and the Phosphate Hill mine was starting up along with the Hi-Fert fertiliser business we used to call the business unit the 'Poo Factory' back then.

Hopefully the poo sector pulls out of its dive soon. Waiting until it shows some signs of turning around to do some averaging up

Well this is the only forum that speaks of the fertilizer sector as the poo sector. Maybe you guys just have a fetish for the stuff

We all know that it is not called that at all but you can call it what you like. Just makes me not really want to read this thread to be honest. The thought of POO isn't a big turn on you know and MAK isn't even producing that! Neither is IPL or NUF or ?? Hang on a sec! No company that I know of that is listed on the ASX does?? Nor have i ever read any news article referring to the fertilizer sector as that and i'm talking about the last few years not 15- 20. Hmm makes you wonder doesn't it.

 

[Adam A]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Is the australian politician assoc listed on the asx ?

Cause im pretty sure thats what they produce

 

[kenny]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Is the australian politician assoc listed on the asx ?

Cause im pretty sure thats what they produce

I missed that IPO, AdamA. The PDS would have been a good read. May be they are listed with alternative energy stocks like GeoDynamics for all the hot air they generate! Finally finding a green use for them.

Cheers,

Kenny

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I missed that IPO, AdamA. The PDS would have been a good read. May be they are listed with alternative energy stocks like GeoDynamics for all the hot air they generate! Finally finding a green use for them.

Cheers,

Kenny

AHHH yes i think i know the company that you are talking about now. I think that the hot air has been given another name for it called POO seam methane gas.

 

[Spineli]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

This stock has taken an absolute hammering in recent weeks.

Down around 40% from all time highs . Currently trading at 1.69 (2 month low)...plenty $mm are coming off their MC!

Surely somethings up? Looking forward to the next ann to market.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

So, MC now up to $257m.

The Wonarah scoping study completed last year had the project economic with RP at $100 tn. It's now around $350.

Here are the scoping study parameters from MAK:

Potential cash flow of $1b/yr within 2 years, and the current MC is $257m.

The big assumption remains that RP prices stay well above the projected opex of somewhere under $100/t for it to be economical. To be conservative I'd like to assume RP comes back to $150 in the near future, which gives them a margin of +$50/t * 2-3Mtpa = $100-150m profit a year. Give them a pe of 10 at it gives an indicative MC of $1 -1.5b. Currently $257, then add in the dilution for the capex.

Pretty general way of looking at it, but clearly has some room to move, as long as RP doesn't implode.

I posted this on 8 Apr when MAK was at much higher levels that today.

Nothing has changed since then except more companies all of a sudden finding RP on their tenament. RP prices haven't changed, they are still $350-400.

While 'long term' at least one analyst (UBS) has the price dropping to $65, it seems hard to believe the bubble will burst that far, but of course S&D will rule. Right now, MAK are ready to take advantage of the high prices, and with potential revenue of around $1b a year, and an MC now down around $170m, there is 'room to move' up....

 

[Atma]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

most of new supply is capex intensive tho. and the rp discovered are lower grade too. mak has a good grade deposit with potential for higher grades..time will tell. market has punished this one enough. their deposit is jorc compliant. the other guys are not(phosph. aus)

 

[pattyp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I have no Idea - Just guessing... But this is what I see as the WORST case scenario for our beloved MAK...

-------------------------------------------------
-- MAK 10yr Theoretical DCF --
-- Phosphate Only --
-- NOTE: Mine life longer then 10y --
-------------------------------------------------
Production PA = 1MT x2y, 1.5MT x2y, 2MT x6y (Avg 1.5MT)

Phos. Per Ton = $200 x3y, $180x2y, $160 x2y, $150 x2 (Avg $160)

OPEX Avg Per Ton = $125.00

CAPEX $120m (40% Eq / 60% De)

Debt Repayment Avg $15m PA over 5.5yrs

EBT Avg = $56m PA

Free Cash Flow Avg = $39m PA

Future Dilution +27m shares @ $1.80 = $48m

Future Fully Diluted 135m shares on issue

Fair Value 10yr = $508m MCap, $3.77ps, PE 9

NPV @ 5% = $316 MCap, $2.34ps, PE 6
-------------------------------------------------

I think at 175c MAK looks very cheap...

Especially since most forecasters see Phosphate remaining above $300 at least for 2-4yrs.

Pat

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

So, MC now up to $257m.

The Wonarah scoping study completed last year had the project economic with RP at $100 tn. It's now around $350.

Here are the scoping study parameters from MAK:

Potential cash flow of $1b/yr within 2 years, and the current MC is $257m.

The big assumption remains that RP prices stay well above the projected opex of somewhere under $100/t for it to be economical. To be conservative I'd like to assume RP comes back to $150 in the near future, which gives them a margin of +$50/t * 2-3Mtpa = $100-150m profit a year. Give them a pe of 10 at it gives an indicative MC of $1 -1.5b. Currently $257, then add in the dilution for the capex.

Pretty general way of looking at it, but clearly has some room to move, as long as RP doesn't implode.

I have no Idea - Just guessing... But this is what I see as the WORST case scenario for our beloved MAK...

-------------------------------------------------
-- MAK 10yr Theoretical DCF --
-- Phosphate Only --
-- NOTE: Mine life longer then 10y --
-------------------------------------------------
Production PA = 1MT x2y, 1.5MT x2y, 2MT x6y (Avg 1.5MT)

Phos. Per Ton = $200 x3y, $180x2y, $160 x2y, $150 x2 (Avg $160)

OPEX Avg Per Ton = $125.00

CAPEX $120m (40% Eq / 60% De)

Debt Repayment Avg $15m PA over 5.5yrs

EBT Avg = $56m PA

Free Cash Flow Avg = $39m PA

Future Dilution +27m shares @ $1.80 = $48m

Future Fully Diluted 135m shares on issue

Fair Value 10yr = $508m MCap, $3.77ps, PE 9

NPV @ 5% = $316 MCap, $2.34ps, PE 6
-------------------------------------------------

I think at 175c MAK looks very cheap...

Especially since most forecasters see Phosphate remaining above $300 at least for 2-4yrs.

Pat

I agree, it's conservative enough. Risk is Capex/Opex blowout. Just need to add in the 10% claw back thing. And any native title royalties, maybe 3-5%?

Good work Pat.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Ann out today on Tassie projects is OK, making the tin projects look like they may become economical with current prices, but the Moina comments are very disappointing. I was expecting this to be the next real kicker for MAK, outside of Wonarah developments or Fraser Iron sale...

4. MOINA, TASMANIA
This large skarn deposit hosts fluorspar, magnetite, tin, tungsten and base metal sulphides mineralization. It was anticipated that the results of flotation metallurgical testwork being carried out in Europe would have been available by now. However, the resignation of the supervising metallurgist caused a cessation of those investigations, which had been concentrated upon tungsten recovery.

The Company will now preferentially examine fluorspar recovery, and is encouraged by the very strong recent prices for it.

What the heck is 'preferentially examine' mean, and what's the plan?

 

[pattyp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Page 5 of 6
"The company will now preferentially examine fluorspar recovery, and is encouraged by the very strong recent prices for it"

It's interesting that they always leave Fluorspar as an after thought... Not glamorous enough I guess!

I'm betting Fluorspar is the most viable in Tasmania.

Pat

--------------------------------------------------
Pg 9 - MARCH 2008 QUARTERLY REPORT
http://www.minemakers.com.au/documents/qr0803.pdf

"During the Quarter, Minemakers announced that the price of benchmark fluorspar delivered to Europe had risen to from the US$130/t price of a year earlier to US$315/t.

Moina is one of Australia’s largest fluorspar deposits and, based on historic drilling, mineralisation potential for an open cut operation of the 50-60Mt range is considered possible by Minemakers. At a 3Mtpa processing rate, Moina could be a significant long term fluorspar and tungsten producer.

Shareholders are reminded that fluorspar is the principal mineral containing fluorine and is the ultimate main source for all fluorine-based chemicals. Accordingly, it is a critical raw material for the production of aluminium metal, as well as refrigeration and air-conditioning. The growth outlook for aluminium, in particular, seems very strong."
--------------------------------------------------


-------------------------------------------------
-- MAK 10yr Theoretical DCF --
-- Fluorspar Only --
-- NOTE: Mine life longer then 10y --
-------------------------------------------------
Production PA = 1.5MT x1y, 2MT x2y, 2.5MT x1y, 3MT x6yr (Avg 2.2MT)

Fluor. Per Ton = $200 x2y, $170 x1y, $160 x1y, $150 x1y, $140 x5y (Avg $143)

OPEX Avg Per Ton = $125.00

CAPEX $200m (30% Eq / 70% De)

Debt Repayment Avg $20m PA over 7.5yrs

EBT Avg = $39m PA

Free Cash Flow Avg = $27m PA

Future Dilution +30m shares @ $2.00 = $60m

Future Fully Diluted 138m shares on issue

Fair Value 10yr = $356m MCap, $2.59ps, PE 9

NPV @ 5% = $236 MCap, $1.72ps, PE 6
-------------------------------------------------

 

[champ2003]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Ann out today on Tassie projects is OK, making the tin projects look like they may become economical with current prices, but the Moina comments are very disappointing. I was expecting this to be the next real kicker for MAK, outside of Wonarah developments or Fraser Iron sale...

What the heck is 'preferentially examine' mean, and what's the plan?

Kennas,

Sorry but that one has an obvious answer. The way that i took it is exactly as AD said. They will now focus more on Flourspar rather than magnetite, tin, tungsten and base metal sulphides mineralization due to the strong price of Flouspar and it's outlook.

Champ

 

[gfresh]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Minemakers have gone into a trading halt this morning..

Looks like it's in relation to a joint venture and 'acquisition rights'. Could be a big one!

 

[adamim1]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yes, its interesting.

I hope it goes all well and takes off. Little bit worried that it has come down this much in anticipation of this announcement. I wonder if someone knows something that we all don't know.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Minemakers have gone into a trading halt this morning..

Looks like it's in relation to a joint venture and 'acquisition rights'. Could be a big one!

I'm not sure why it would be a 'big one'. :

I do expect the JV to be the finalisation of the Story Creek Tin and Tungstan JV with the Wolf Gang, which has been plodding along for some time. If this is the case, this is great news and probably means that the current assessment of the project is that it's likely to become feasible.

Just need GRR to buy West Southdown now for some more cash in the bank, and some developments at Moina!

 

[pattyp]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I do expect the JV to be the finalisation of the Story Creek Tin and Tungstan JV with the Wolf Gang, which has been plodding along for some time.

CAZ locked up at the same time... Possible Iron Ore Farm-in...?

Will be interesting - will be good for them to either gain some cash, or get someone else to flip the bill for exploration while MAK focus' on Wonarah.

Pat

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

CAZ locked up at the same time... Possible Iron Ore Farm-in...?

Will be interesting - will be good for them to either gain some cash, or get someone else to flip the bill for exploration while MAK focus' on Wonarah.

Pat

Yes, pattyp, could be the case. CAZ indicated 'potential project acquisition'. Perhaps that relates to the 'acquision rights' of the MAK ann? I suppose it could be farm in/JV too....