AEV - Avenira Limited
- Thread starter yogi-in-oz
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
I agree with Kennas; especially about hoping the 20c gap isn't waiting to be filled.
Today's Australian article on the "Phosphate bubble" may have spooked some to take some money off the table.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23680699-18261,00.html
Anyone want to hazard a TA opinion on a likely support level? Do I hear $2.02?
Cheers,
Kenny
I agree with Kennas; especially about hoping the 20c gap isn't waiting to be filled.
Today's Australian article on the "Phosphate bubble" may have spooked some to take some money off the table.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23680699-18261,00.html
Anyone want to hazard a TA opinion on a likely support level? Do I hear $2.02?
Cheers,
Kenny
Re: MAK - Minemakers
I personally am not looking for support level, I'm waiting for reversal signal...
The supports, MAs and trend-lines so far have been disregarded. We need a double bottom, reverse head/shoulders or a candle pattern... Something like that!
I hold these, not yet nervous - Fundamentals haven't changed.
Just my opinion!
I personally am not looking for support level, I'm waiting for reversal signal...
The supports, MAs and trend-lines so far have been disregarded. We need a double bottom, reverse head/shoulders or a candle pattern... Something like that!
I hold these, not yet nervous - Fundamentals haven't changed.
Just my opinion!
Re: MAK - Minemakers
One thing that i got from that article that is clearly a standout positive point is this:-
(It is true that phosphate is going to be in huge demand to meet world food needs. But it's a long way from grab samples to bagging the end product.)
The first point that I like is the re-inforced belief that demand is going to be huge and the second is that alot of projects are a long way off from production which means that supply will remain constrained keeping the price of RP high.
I also like the fact that MAK wasn't mentioned as a spec because MAK is the real deal!
Champ
I agree with Kennas; especially about hoping the 20c gap isn't waiting to be filled.
Today's Australian article on the "Phosphate bubble" may have spooked some to take some money off the table.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23680699-18261,00.html
Anyone want to hazard a TA opinion on a likely support level? Do I hear $2.02?
Cheers,
Kenny
One thing that i got from that article that is clearly a standout positive point is this:-
(It is true that phosphate is going to be in huge demand to meet world food needs. But it's a long way from grab samples to bagging the end product.)
The first point that I like is the re-inforced belief that demand is going to be huge and the second is that alot of projects are a long way off from production which means that supply will remain constrained keeping the price of RP high.
I also like the fact that MAK wasn't mentioned as a spec because MAK is the real deal!
Champ
Re: MAK - Minemakers
LoL Champ - You are as bad as I am when it comes to forum copy/paste...
I agree with you... MAK is something special.
I did a DCF on the Fluorspar project and pasted on T$... Here it is again.
This project is almost as big as the Phosphate one.
Pat
-----------------------------------
**Theoretical DCF**
8yr time frame
Ship 2mt/pa Fluorspar, ramp to 3mt/pa by yr 5
Fluorspar $200p/ton taper off to 130p/ton
Open cut Opex Avg $110p/ton (Maybe too high, I'm being safe)
CAPEX 200mil (Debt 60%, Eq. 40%) Paid off over 7yrs.
Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.
Avg 90mil EBT per year.
Avg 60mil Free Cash Flow.
-----------------------------------
Pg 9 - MARCH 2008 QUARTERLY REPORT
http://www.minemakers.com.au/documents/qr0803.pdf
"During the Quarter, Minemakers announced that the price of benchmark fluorspar delivered to Europe had risen to from the US$130/t price of a year earlier to US$315/t.
Moina is one of Australia’s largest fluorspar deposits and, based on historic drilling, mineralisation potential for an open cut operation of the 50-60Mt range is considered possible by Minemakers. At a 3Mtpa processing rate, Moina could be a significant long term fluorspar and tungsten producer.
Shareholders are reminded that fluorspar is the principal mineral containing fluorine and is the ultimate main source for all fluorine-based chemicals. Accordingly, it is a critical raw material for the production of aluminium metal, as well as refrigeration and air-conditioning. The growth outlook for aluminium, in particular, seems very strong."
LoL Champ - You are as bad as I am when it comes to forum copy/paste...
I agree with you... MAK is something special.
I did a DCF on the Fluorspar project and pasted on T$... Here it is again.
This project is almost as big as the Phosphate one.
Pat
-----------------------------------
**Theoretical DCF**
8yr time frame
Ship 2mt/pa Fluorspar, ramp to 3mt/pa by yr 5
Fluorspar $200p/ton taper off to 130p/ton
Open cut Opex Avg $110p/ton (Maybe too high, I'm being safe)
CAPEX 200mil (Debt 60%, Eq. 40%) Paid off over 7yrs.
Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.
Avg 90mil EBT per year.
Avg 60mil Free Cash Flow.
-----------------------------------
Pg 9 - MARCH 2008 QUARTERLY REPORT
http://www.minemakers.com.au/documents/qr0803.pdf
"During the Quarter, Minemakers announced that the price of benchmark fluorspar delivered to Europe had risen to from the US$130/t price of a year earlier to US$315/t.
Moina is one of Australia’s largest fluorspar deposits and, based on historic drilling, mineralisation potential for an open cut operation of the 50-60Mt range is considered possible by Minemakers. At a 3Mtpa processing rate, Moina could be a significant long term fluorspar and tungsten producer.
Shareholders are reminded that fluorspar is the principal mineral containing fluorine and is the ultimate main source for all fluorine-based chemicals. Accordingly, it is a critical raw material for the production of aluminium metal, as well as refrigeration and air-conditioning. The growth outlook for aluminium, in particular, seems very strong."
Re: MAK - Minemakers
LOL i was hoping no-one realised the copy & paste although i did add alot of extra info on the other forum
By the way how did you come to this market cap? (Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.)
Is this the market cap that you feel that MAK should currently have on top of the current market cap?
Champ
LOL i was hoping no-one realised the copy & paste although i did add alot of extra info on the other forum
By the way how did you come to this market cap? (Gives me a Fair Value of 339,000,000 MCap.)
Is this the market cap that you feel that MAK should currently have on top of the current market cap?
Champ
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Its a MCap Value based purely on Fluorspar project - So theoreticallly you plus it on top of the Phosphate project.
My MAK Phosphate DCF is based on low end Ph price - Say 200p/ton... Comes our around the same as the Fluorspar...$380m MCap
So a MCap of $700-800m is realistic if these projects come online close to my forecast.
In theory... Its all theoretical.
I actually apply a Risk Ratio of 65% to non-producers with JORC resource... So a speculative fair value, both projects, with risk weighted into it would place MAK at $300-$400m MCap.
So based on my analysis I am happy to accumulate on corrections up to that price, or higher prices as the risk adjusts as we get closer to production...
Sorry for the long response
Pat
BTW - Fair Value is calculated as follows: http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/dcf4.asp
Its a MCap Value based purely on Fluorspar project - So theoreticallly you plus it on top of the Phosphate project.
My MAK Phosphate DCF is based on low end Ph price - Say 200p/ton... Comes our around the same as the Fluorspar...$380m MCap
So a MCap of $700-800m is realistic if these projects come online close to my forecast.
In theory... Its all theoretical.
I actually apply a Risk Ratio of 65% to non-producers with JORC resource... So a speculative fair value, both projects, with risk weighted into it would place MAK at $300-$400m MCap.
So based on my analysis I am happy to accumulate on corrections up to that price, or higher prices as the risk adjusts as we get closer to production...
Sorry for the long response
Pat
BTW - Fair Value is calculated as follows: http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/dcf4.asp
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Thanks for that Pattyp,
I basically agree with you. The only problem that I have with the calculations to attain fair value is that fair value is really determined by the market which will probably value this much higher than the standard fair value calculations in the article. All due to global demand of course and the AG bull market that we are in.
Very interesting reading though.
Amazing watching MAK go up so much today. That announcement shows that MAK is the real deal and is definately going to advance to production much faster than initially anticipated. I think that we are in for some exciting times ahead.
Cheers!
Champ
Its a MCap Value based purely on Fluorspar project - So theoreticallly you plus it on top of the Phosphate project.
My MAK Phosphate DCF is based on low end Ph price - Say 200p/ton... Comes our around the same as the Fluorspar...$380m MCap
So a MCap of $700-800m is realistic if these projects come online close to my forecast.
In theory... Its all theoretical.
I actually apply a Risk Ratio of 65% to non-producers with JORC resource... So a speculative fair value, both projects, with risk weighted into it would place MAK at $300-$400m MCap.
So based on my analysis I am happy to accumulate on corrections up to that price, or higher prices as the risk adjusts as we get closer to production...
Sorry for the long response
Pat
BTW - Fair Value is calculated as follows: http://www.investopedia.com/university/dcf/dcf4.asp
Thanks for that Pattyp,
I basically agree with you. The only problem that I have with the calculations to attain fair value is that fair value is really determined by the market which will probably value this much higher than the standard fair value calculations in the article. All due to global demand of course and the AG bull market that we are in.
Very interesting reading though.
Amazing watching MAK go up so much today. That announcement shows that MAK is the real deal and is definately going to advance to production much faster than initially anticipated. I think that we are in for some exciting times ahead.
Cheers!
Champ
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Champ,
I Agree - It is absolutely possible that the market value a stock higher (Or lower) then a DCF NPV and MCap Fair Value... And with DCF data the problem is "garbage in, garbage out"...
Never-the-less, this type of analysis really sorts the silver from the sand when buying for longer term.
And at best, my DCF is the conservative estimate - the market can very often run on the crazy estimate...
Good news for us is even on conservative estimate there is great upside in value and we can buy on dips with more confidence.
Just my opinion, not a professional
Pat
Champ,
I Agree - It is absolutely possible that the market value a stock higher (Or lower) then a DCF NPV and MCap Fair Value... And with DCF data the problem is "garbage in, garbage out"...
Never-the-less, this type of analysis really sorts the silver from the sand when buying for longer term.
And at best, my DCF is the conservative estimate - the market can very often run on the crazy estimate...
Good news for us is even on conservative estimate there is great upside in value and we can buy on dips with more confidence.
Just my opinion, not a professional
Pat
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Market is REALLY thinking hard about MAK...
Where to go? Up or Down...?
I actually think its looking better (For bulls) after today...
Daily:
Good buying off the 2buc zone... Holding above my med-term 55MA, also holding above my 382 retracement.
Candles look to be consolidating at this point and the last couple days have been a slight uptrend.
Weekly:
Same as Daily, except REALLY clearly shows the battle that has been raging. Don Mega Spinning top... It’s red, so bears are winning... Just!
Volume continues to be low and fairly insignificant... Little conviction from both the bulls and bears!
One thing to note is that Volume on Big Drop, was less then the Volume on Big Bounce... IMO People still believe the story, they are just waiting for the signal to buy!
If tomorrow shows buying strength, I think I may top up a little bit.
Just my opinion - Its a Perspective not Advice..
Pat
Market is REALLY thinking hard about MAK...
Where to go? Up or Down...?
I actually think its looking better (For bulls) after today...
Daily:
Good buying off the 2buc zone... Holding above my med-term 55MA, also holding above my 382 retracement.
Candles look to be consolidating at this point and the last couple days have been a slight uptrend.
Weekly:
Same as Daily, except REALLY clearly shows the battle that has been raging. Don Mega Spinning top... It’s red, so bears are winning... Just!
Volume continues to be low and fairly insignificant... Little conviction from both the bulls and bears!
One thing to note is that Volume on Big Drop, was less then the Volume on Big Bounce... IMO People still believe the story, they are just waiting for the signal to buy!
If tomorrow shows buying strength, I think I may top up a little bit.
Just my opinion - Its a Perspective not Advice..
Pat
Attachments
Re: MAK - Minemakers
North American Ferilizer Plays are going off!!!!
POT 204 +2.6%
MOS 128 +2.3%
AGU 89 +2.7%
CF 140 +2.7%
IPI 48 +1.5%
LGDI.OB 3.77 +8.9%
Lets hope it holds through the night and the optimism translates back to Aus tomorrow...
North American Ferilizer Plays are going off!!!!
POT 204 +2.6%
MOS 128 +2.3%
AGU 89 +2.7%
CF 140 +2.7%
IPI 48 +1.5%
LGDI.OB 3.77 +8.9%
Lets hope it holds through the night and the optimism translates back to Aus tomorrow...
Sean K
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
Interesting ann the other day, especially their approach to the unusual trading. I ´ve never seen a company actually go to the ASX before to sort it out. Still not sure what to make of it though. Who ´s playing with it...
And, great update on Wonarah, and I agree with the sentiments above ovout these guys moving forward quickly while the poo ´s steaming!
Just hope RP prices consolidate nicely and there ´s no dramatic price declines which will spook punters.
Interesting ann the other day, especially their approach to the unusual trading. I ´ve never seen a company actually go to the ASX before to sort it out. Still not sure what to make of it though. Who ´s playing with it...
And, great update on Wonarah, and I agree with the sentiments above ovout these guys moving forward quickly while the poo ´s steaming!
Just hope RP prices consolidate nicely and there ´s no dramatic price declines which will spook punters.
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Latest market update from Fertilizerworks has prices RISING to $400+ this week
:jump:
Also the Chinese earthquake has hit right in the middle of phosphate country! A number of mines and at least 2 DAP plants rumoured to be wiped out. Prices aren't going down anytime soon. Should be an interesting day on Monday.
Latest market update from Fertilizerworks has prices RISING to $400+ this week
:jump:
Also the Chinese earthquake has hit right in the middle of phosphate country! A number of mines and at least 2 DAP plants rumoured to be wiped out. Prices aren't going down anytime soon. Should be an interesting day on Monday.
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Yes Sheepdip,
It certainly adds to the confidence of the price of Phosphate remaining high. I think that a correction will come but who knows what the price will be at that stage. EG it may go to 600 or 700 in a spike and then correct to 300??? Who knows. It's blatantly obvious that the price will remain high enough for MAK to make a motza out of it in any case so I feel very comfortable holding and buying more on dips.
Champ
Yes Sheepdip,
It certainly adds to the confidence of the price of Phosphate remaining high. I think that a correction will come but who knows what the price will be at that stage. EG it may go to 600 or 700 in a spike and then correct to 300??? Who knows. It's blatantly obvious that the price will remain high enough for MAK to make a motza out of it in any case so I feel very comfortable holding and buying more on dips.
Champ
Sean K
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
When the stock bounced off the $2 mark so positively a few days ago I was very happy. Not too happy with the downtrend continuing and it`s knocking on the door again. Bounce off $2.00 MAK. Please.
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
I just lost what i made in the past 6 months with MAK.... i brought around $2.54,
because i put alot more % of capital in MAK.
I'm planning to sell and buy again just for the "capital loss offset", but am planning to hold.
Will this share go as high as $3.00 as some predicted? is there is potential (i would imagine yes)
I just lost what i made in the past 6 months with MAK.... i brought around $2.54,
because i put alot more % of capital in MAK.
I'm planning to sell and buy again just for the "capital loss offset", but am planning to hold.
Will this share go as high as $3.00 as some predicted? is there is potential (i would imagine yes)
Sean K
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
It's your money, do you think it's going back to $3.00, and why?
So, maybe some lessons in there IWBR?
It's your money, do you think it's going back to $3.00, and why?
Re: MAK - Minemakers
Their Wonarah project certainly has potential. Not to mention Rock Phosphate prices with predictions it will go higher. I bought in at $2 and at the moment i am trying to get more at around that $2 mark. There is strong support at that $2 and i personally don't think it will go below that mark (though nothing is cement), just look at all the buyers in at $2. Its just dropping at the moment because its a bit quiet. They're drilling at the moment - so i guess when that is finished we might see another price change.
Rio looked at this mine a few years ago but it couldn't be justified at the RP prices back then. Since then MAK is looking at it and the price of RP is much MUCH higher. Making it potentially viable. There is plenty of rock phosphate out at Wonarah and i think it is certainly something i will hold long term.
I think MAK is also being managed well by Andrew too which makes a difference.
All stocks are a risk, just got to wait and see.
Only my thoughts - don't take this as advice.
Their Wonarah project certainly has potential. Not to mention Rock Phosphate prices with predictions it will go higher. I bought in at $2 and at the moment i am trying to get more at around that $2 mark. There is strong support at that $2 and i personally don't think it will go below that mark (though nothing is cement), just look at all the buyers in at $2. Its just dropping at the moment because its a bit quiet. They're drilling at the moment - so i guess when that is finished we might see another price change.
Rio looked at this mine a few years ago but it couldn't be justified at the RP prices back then. Since then MAK is looking at it and the price of RP is much MUCH higher. Making it potentially viable. There is plenty of rock phosphate out at Wonarah and i think it is certainly something i will hold long term.
I think MAK is also being managed well by Andrew too which makes a difference.
All stocks are a risk, just got to wait and see.
Only my thoughts - don't take this as advice.
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
As with the Uranium Mania, every dog and his bone has been jumping onto the Poo Wagon which is starting to Dilute the Poo Sector....
As with the Uranium Mania, every dog and his bone has been jumping onto the Poo Wagon which is starting to Dilute the Poo Sector....
Sean K
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Re: MAK - Minemakers
Good point Kimosabi. I think MAK (and RWD - and IPL of course) were lucky to be the first off the rank with relatively advanced projects at the time poo exploaded. Since all the others have been jumping on the bandwagon the money has shifted around the sector, stalling MAK and RWD as the massive gains had been made. I think the cream will rise to the top for a long term 'value' stock, just need to pick which one. I've put my eggs into MAK but not just because of Wonarah, but for their other couple of company making projects which should be in the news in the coming weeks.
