AEV - Avenira Limited

[Black Range]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

To all MAK Holders here's a rundown of Friday 22nd Feb. Trading. I've also included a Closing Intra-Day Trading Chart so as to better understand Fridays Trading patterns as they unfolded.


No. of Trades: 883
Volume:............. 4,311,766 ** Average 21Day Vol..1,938,095

Opening Price:... 1.165
High Price:........ 1.415
Low Price:......... 1.150

Todays Close $1.390
Closing Buy Depths: $1.39 (1,088,585)
Closing Sell Depths: $1.40 (280,570)

6-month High: 1.415

5-day EMA: 1.062
10-day EMA: 0.947
15-day EMA: 0.862
30-day EMA: 0.700

Last 10 Days Trading.
Date..............Close.....Days Volume.
22-02-2008...$1.390.... 4,311,766
21-02-2008...$1.190.... 1,586,65
20-02-2008...$1.035.... 1,586,5983
19-02-2008...$1.105.... 4,752,497
18-02-2008...$1.115.... 3,514,038
15-02-2008...$0.845.... 721,425
14-02-2008...$0.890.... 1,257,930
13-02-2008...$0.810.... 1,293,121
12-02-2008...$0.850.... 5,042,712
11-02-2008...$0.730.... 2,279,214


Cheers to all MAK Holders from grant64
.
.
P.S. One to Keep an eye on is (AOE) ARROW ENERGY...


Here's yesterdays Closing Intra-Day Chart for Friday 22nd FEB. for the period 12.43p.m to 4.11p.m. showing good Buyer support at $1.27...... with a nice bounce to Close at $1.39.

Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Anyone game to say what happens next for the share price? Congratulations to all holders - some nice gains there I'm sure. He who hesitates......(or I should say she). Still waiting for the big sell off that just has not happened!

Market cap = $59 million - any thoughts now?

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Here is the latest MAK chart. Wow, it looks wicked. The question is, can it keep going? I have heard the share register is 10% farmers. I wonder if it still is?

 

[Fed23]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Skyrocketing today. AS high as $1.53 just in the first hour.

Wish I had bought more units but I was worried it would do a backflip after I bought in

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

All sounds a bit far fetched to me, even though I can understand the arithmetic that gets people excited. Stocks with exciting numbers and no drill holes and not much money are a dime a dozen in this market.

I told myself I would not buy into this at all and have been expecting it to consolidate and move sideways for the next gazillion years until they actually drill a hole or something exciting like that.

But I gave in today and bought a smallish parcel (talk about a lack of discipline) so that in case irrationality propels them to further dizzy heights, at least I'll have been part of the great 'fertiliser' rush. I'm sure the BS being generated with the hype on this alone would be enough to fertilise a fair few fields of wheat - if it looks like fertiliser and smells like fertiliser it probably is fertiliser lol. So now having bought in, tomorrow I expect it will commence a gazillion week sideways or downwards consolidation.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

All sounds a bit far fetched to me, even though I can understand the arithmetic that gets people excited. Stocks with exciting numbers and no drill holes and not much money are a dime a dozen in this market.

cuttlefish, while you've got in well into the current run, and I think the big gains have been made, fear not about the drill holes. Wonarah has holes all over it, drilled by RIO. I recommend you look into that particular project a little more and even read the original prospectus that contains all the details of all their projects, including the non JORC numbers (pre JORC code) that they have to work off.

I originally bought this for the West Southdown iron ore and still think that just that project could be worth 100-200m to their MC. Compare their strike legths to Grange's Southdown deposit for a comparison. It's been done in the thread before, and it's well shown on their presentations.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Don't worry Kenna's I'm pretty thorough in my research - I've read about the RIO drill holes etc. plus all of the other stuff on this stock. The harder one to predict is the sustainability of high rock phosphate prices and the other factor is that its simply a very long way away from being developed and there are plenty of stocks that are way undervalued vs in-ground value (even if using 1% of in-ground for market cap as the benchmark).

I've bought into this because its a little unusual, has strong momentum, and some on-paper figures that are significant if taken at face value on current prices. In a generally down market its a situation that has the potential psychological ingredients to continue to run imo.

I'm not going to defend the decision too much though - its a blatant case of "fear of missing out" for me in this situation lol which is usually the wrong way to invest!

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not going to defend the decision too much though - its a blatant case of "fear of missing out" for me in this situation lol which is usually the wrong way to invest!

Know how that feels. I had a nightmare about NOT owning MAK the other night. That's the first time I've ever had such a thing! I normally don't have nightmares at all!

Kennas, where's your poles and flags thing? Or has this graph blown all TA out of the water!

 

[meganut]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I'm not going to defend the decision too much though - its a blatant case of "fear of missing out" for me in this situation lol which is usually the wrong way to invest!

You can't get'em all, maybe you should have sat this one out if it went against your better judgement and just waited for the next BIG ONE that your comfortable with, and there will be heaps more.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Todays strength was unusual - it was a day where I'd have expected a shooting star or some kind of reversal pattern but it showed reasonable continuation in the afternoon (in fact today it accelarated even further out of the existing steep short term uptrend). Volumes haven't been overly excessive and today's volume wasn't too out of kilter with the previous volumes of this run and volume in $ value isn't overly excessive either.

The $60m market cap is still in line with a typical spec junior with a valuable JORC so its not into complete silly territory yet. The stock has attracted a lot of attention and has good momentum. Its also a slightly unusual situation as stated above with the phosphate etc., and the numbers on face value are spectacular. I'm a bit skeptical about it all but I can see the market getting attracted to numbers like this.

So unlike most of the ones I'd usually avoid I decided to take a relatively small position. Fairly wide stop, main exit criteria will be it travelling sideways or downwards long enough to have clearly fallen out of the current steep uptrend.

 

[Evangeline]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

In regard to the price of P heading south anytime soon, read this and draw your own conclusions:

Found these notes as part of an academic study by a doctoral student at UTS, Dana Cordell, on the phosphate crisis and global food security. These are just a few points from her extensive study on phosphorus. P is rapidly diminishing and we are going to have to find ways of conserving and recycling this essential resource:


1. Phosphorus is essential for all living matter, including
bacteria, plants and animals. It is essential for food
production in the form of fertilizers (and indeed a limiting factor in crop yields) and hence a critical global resource, along side water and energy resources.

2. The majority of the world's agricultural fields today rely on fertilizers derived from inorganic minerals, such as phosphate rock. Phosphate rock is a non-renewable
resource, and current known reserves are likely to be
depleted in 50-100 years.

3. While other non-renewable natural resources used in
society - like oil - can be substituted with other sources (like wind, biomass or thermal energy), phosphorus has no
substitute in food production.

4. Unlike other major biogeochemical cycles, phosphorus has
no atmospheric phase, meaning it takes millions of years to
cycle naturally between the lithosphere and hydrosphere,
and is thus more sensitive to anthropogenic disruptions (like mining, which releases phosphorus from the lithosphere to the hydrosphere at rates of days to years).

5. 85-90% of the phosphate rock extracted globally is for food production (the remainder is for industrial applications like detergents).

6. A balanced diet results in depletion of around 22.5kg/yr of phosphate rock (or 3.2kg/yr of P) per person based on
current practice. This is 50 times greater than the 1.2 g/d
per person recommended daily intake of P.8

7. Demand for phosphorus is increasing globally, despite a
downward trend in developed regions like Western Europe.
This is due to an increasing per capita and overall demand
for food in developing countries, from increasing population and global trends towards more meat- and dairy-based diets, which are significantly more P intensive.

8. If we hope to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of
eradicating hunger, we must change the way we source and
use phosphorus in global food production. The African
continent is simultaneously the world�s largest producer of
phosphate rock (almost 30% of the global share) and the
continent with the largest deficit in food security.

9. Phosphate rock reserves are highly geographically
concentrated, and thus only exist under control of a small
number of countries, including China, Morocco (who owns
Western Sahara's reserves), and the US. The US has
approximately 25 years of reserves remaining, while China
has indicated it will no longer import or export phosphate
rock. Western Europe and India are totally dependent on
imports.

10. Importing Western Saharan P rock via Moroccan authorities is condemned by the UN and has recently been boycotted by several Scandinavian firms.

11. Phosphate rock mining currently relies on cheap fossil energy, like oil. As oil reserves peak, price of phosphate rock will also increase further.

12. Phosphate rock mining, processing and transportation
represents a significant percentage of energy use in agriculture. Around 30% of energy use in agriculture in the US is from fertilizer production and use.

13. Like oil and other natural resources, the rate of production of economically available phosphate reserves will eventually peak, followed by a steep decline and subsequent ongoing decline of EPR*. Based on industry data, this global peak P is expected to occur between 2040 and 2050.

14. The quality of phosphate rock is declining for two reasons: the concentration of P205 in mined P rock is decreasing; and the concentration of associated heavy metals like Cadmium are increasing.

15. The cost of mining phosphate rock is increasing due to decline in quality and greater expense of extraction, refinement and environmental management.

16. The Cadmium content of phosphate rock can be very high. This is either considered a harmful concentration for application in agriculture, or, expensive and energy intensive to remove (maximum concentrations for fertilizers exist in some regions, like Western Europe).

17. Demand for biofuels has resulted in increasing demand for P rock as fertilizers, and increased runoff from short-rooted energy crops.

 

[Black Range]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Evangeline Here's Yesterdays/ Monday 25th FEB. 8 Hour Intra Day Trading for MAK.

Last Traded: 25-02-2008
No. of Trades: 784
Volume: 3,424,851

Opening Price: 1.430
High Price: 1.610
Low Price: 1.380

Last Closing Price 25th Feb.Price: $1.55

Closing Buyer Depth:. $1.530 (1,047,798)
Closing Seller Depth: $1.550 (363,225)



6-month High: 1.610

5-day EMA: 1.172
10-day EMA: 1.028
15-day EMA: 0.928
30-day EMA: 0.745
Avg Volume: 2,179,793


Cheers from grant64
.
.

25/02/2008 8 Hour Intra-Day Trading Chart from Mondays trading 10.00a.m. to 4.11p.m..

Green Line Displays Buyers, Orange Sellers Market Depth. Blue Line represents previous days close. All Data taken from http://www.turbotrader.net.au/

 

[Sean K]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Don't worry Kenna's I'm pretty thorough in my research - I've read about the RIO drill holes etc. plus all of the other stuff on this stock. The harder one to predict is the sustainability of high rock phosphate prices and the other factor is that its simply a very long way away from being developed and there are plenty of stocks that are way undervalued vs in-ground value (even if using 1% of in-ground for market cap as the benchmark).

Sorry, assumed by what you said that you didn't realise that the deposit had been well defined and I think we can assume the previous work is valid. I think some even more upside can be found if the high grade outcrop to the SW (forgotten name at the minute) is found to have a decent tonnage.

Yes, I know what you mean about IGV. IRC have trillions in the ground but their MC is about 40 cents.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Yeah - I still always like to see drilling confirmation of historical results - but I feel comfortable there is highly likely to be a resource there of the size and grades indicated.

tue 11:56 - has run up a fair bit again today and not much sign of supply coming in as yet - even the late morning spike hasn't drawn much additional supply so far - volume today also still well under a third of yesterday's volume and a third of the way through the trading day so far - the engine's still running so far today.

 

[Evangeline]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

The name of the (possibly) higher grade deposit...is Arawura (wouln't swear to the spelling lol!) and they have discovered 30% grades there much closer to the surface (less cost to mine). It will be a priority with them to test this new target.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

well another strong showing so far today though you'd think the $2.00 mark would represent some sort of psychological barrier for some - but then again the $1.00 mark only generated a very brief breather.

It is at least a bit of a relief not to be watching this from the sidelines anymore. It is quite surprising how much strength it has been showing.

Anyone that bought a decent swag of options two month ago would be very happy indeed, it would have to be one of the sharpest and steepest rises in recent times particularly in a down market.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

well another strong showing so far today though you'd think the $2.00 mark would represent some sort of psychological barrier for some - but then again the $1.00 mark only generated a very brief breather.

It is at least a bit of a relief not to be watching this from the sidelines anymore. It is quite surprising how much strength it has been showing.

Anyone that bought a decent swag of options two month ago would be very happy indeed, it would have to be one of the sharpest and steepest rises in recent times particularly in a down market.

Take a look at the graph now. After the speeding ticket, the profits are being taken. Wonder where it will retrace to...I'm still on the sidelines. More sellers than buyers now, I think this would be a first for some time!

 

[CapKapak]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Seems to be settling around the $1.75 mark. I tried to pick some up at $1.47 but it just moved off that mark too fast.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Take a look at the graph now. After the speeding ticket, the profits are being taken. Wonder where it will retrace to...I'm still on the sidelines. More sellers than buyers now, I think this would be a first for some time!

lol yeah - I added to my position yesterday and was feeling pretty good this morning but am out now with a small haircut instead.

I commend your fortitude on staying out of this.

 

[grace]

Re: MAK - Minemakers

lol yeah - I added to my position yesterday and was feeling pretty good this morning but am out now with a small haircut instead.

I commend your fortitude on staying out of this.

Well, I hesitated too very early in the piece at 40cents. I'm not very brave at all. I would be taking profits now if I owned them though. Hope to get in on the next run though.