AED - AED Oil

The Piper · 12 March 2008

qr2007 said:
According to the news it said
"Puffin has been producing between 6,000 and 10,000 barrels a day, less than expected, AED said Jan. 10".

The ann. on 10/Jan also mentioned that it expected to produce about 20,000 barrels a day. So even if with the JV now, the full capacity can go up to 20,000 barrels a day, AED would get only 40% i.e. only 8,000/day which is less than it is getting now? will it mean the profit will be more or less than before the JV????

From my understanding, the JV is great for AED as it can get cash to solve its current problem but not sure if it can increase profit for share holders which reflected by SP????

I am trying to convince myself to hold on to AED???

OK just say the production for AED as a joint venture partener is 8000 bpd.
AED is now cashed up with all debts paid. Their oil price is hedged at US$77per barrel for the next 6 months, extraction costs are $25/bl leaving $52 in the bank. 8000 times $52 equals $416000.00 per day, or$151.84million per year. That is earnings per share of $1.00 net approximately assuming oil does not increase in value.
Note that the US military are budgeting on oil at $225pbl.
Dont panic.
In fact you can walk around with a big smile on your face

The Piper · 12 March 2008

Well SINOPEC have just bought 60% of 100m barrels of oil at $10 per barrel. Add on extraction costs of $25 per and they have a load of cheap oil. In my view thats a good deal, and that works for AED Oil as well.
AED Oils only sin was to spend too much on further exploration before securing satisfactory production output.
In two weeks time AED should have the funds to retire approx $300m debt, leaving $300m cash at hand, and have assets worth $400m ( if you want to value the oil at $10.00 per barrel) .

qr2007 · 12 March 2008

The SP in the last few days since it re-open till now does not give share holders positive impression at all. Its going south everyday. Particularly, today is a strong market day with most stocks heading north but AED ????

I am still holding it but day by day, it makes me nervous????

Goodluck all.

oldblue · 13 March 2008

My reading of AED announcement today is that they will receive AUD600m from Sinopec, when final approval of deal is made. They will then have to spend USD154 to retire bank debt and approximately USD70 to settle outstanding creditors. The balance will be available to " fund joint venture development" and other expenses going forward.
Sounds like good news.
By the way AED made a small maiden net profit in the half year to 31Dec 2007.

phoenix_gr · 16 March 2008

oldblue said:
My reading of AED announcement today is that they will receive AUD600m from Sinopec, when final approval of deal is made.

if final approval is of deal is made, probably will be made, it looks pretty simple, deal and company survives, no deal and going concern becomes a real concern to many investors.

oldblue · 16 March 2008

phoenix_gr said:
if final approval is of deal is made, probably will be made, it looks pretty simple, deal and company survives, no deal and going concern becomes a real concern to many investors.

Quite so.
I don't see that anything has changed since the announcement of the proposed JV, except possibly that the POO has strengthened even more. We can expect a down day marketwise tomorrow so I might have a little nibble in expectation of confirmation of the deal by the weekend, or shortly thereafter.

BERNARD99 · 17 March 2008

I have been watching AED for about 18 months and only recently bought (at $1.94 - AFTER it went al the way down to bargain basement....)

I want to buy some more as I believe we can't go wrong with this one. The world is using 1,000 barrels of oil PER SECOND - so AED's current production will only last 6 seconds of world consumption. My point being "Oil will always be in high demand".

My question is WHEN is the right time to buy?

qr2007 · 17 March 2008

Yes, Oil is always on demand but would AED worth that much per share? if you do some research and look at the P/E ratio for AED, it is about 128 while the sector is 22.74 and all ord. is 12.36.

The below is From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock (also called its "earnings multiple", or simply "multiple", "P/E", or "PE") is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual income or profit earned by the firm per share.[2] A higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of income. It is a valuation ratio included in other financial ratios. The reciprocal of the P/E ratio is known as the earnings yield.[3]

The price per share (numerator) is the market price of a single share of the stock. The earnings per share (denominator) is the net income of the company for the most recent 12 month period, divided by number of shares outstanding. The earnings per share (EPS) used can also be the "diluted EPS" or the "comprehensive EPS". The P/E ratio can also be calculated by dividing the company's market capitalization by its total annual earnings.

For example, if stock A is trading at $24 and the earnings per share for the most recent 12 month period is $3, then stock A has a P/E ratio of 24/3 or 8. Put another way, the purchaser of stock A is paying $8 for every dollar of earnings. Companies with losses (negative earnings) or no profit have an undefined P/E ratio (usually shown as Not applicable or "N/A"); sometimes, however, a negative P/E ratio may be shown.

By comparing price and earnings per share for a company, one can analyze the market's stock valuation of a company and its shares relative to the income the company is actually generating.[citation needed] Investors can use the P/E ratio to compare the value of stocks: if one stock has a P/E twice that of another stock, all things being equal (especially the earnings growth rate), it is a less attractive investment. Companies are rarely equal, however, and comparisons between industries, companies, and time periods may be misleading.

oldblue · 17 March 2008

I thought better of it and didn't buy today.

Still interested but will wait for either the price to stabilise or confirmation of the deal. Will have to be quick on my feet!

BERNARD99 · 17 March 2008

qr2007 said:
Yes, Oil is always on demand but would AED worth that much per share? if you do some research and look at the P/E ratio for AED, it is about 128 while the sector is 22.74 and all ord. is 12.36.

The below is From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock (also called its "earnings multiple", or simply "multiple", "P/E", or "PE") is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual income or profit earned by the firm per share.[2] A higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of income. It is a valuation ratio included in other financial ratios. The reciprocal of the P/E ratio is known as the earnings yield.[3]

The price per share (numerator) is the market price of a single share of the stock. The earnings per share (denominator) is the net income of the company for the most recent 12 month period, divided by number of shares outstanding. The earnings per share (EPS) used can also be the "diluted EPS" or the "comprehensive EPS". The P/E ratio can also be calculated by dividing the company's market capitalization by its total annual earnings.

For example, if stock A is trading at $24 and the earnings per share for the most recent 12 month period is $3, then stock A has a P/E ratio of 24/3 or 8. Put another way, the purchaser of stock A is paying $8 for every dollar of earnings. Companies with losses (negative earnings) or no profit have an undefined P/E ratio (usually shown as Not applicable or "N/A"); sometimes, however, a negative P/E ratio may be shown.

By comparing price and earnings per share for a company, one can analyze the market's stock valuation of a company and its shares relative to the income the company is actually generating.[citation needed] Investors can use the P/E ratio to compare the value of stocks: if one stock has a P/E twice that of another stock, all things being equal (especially the earnings growth rate), it is a less attractive investment. Companies are rarely equal, however, and comparisons between industries, companies, and time periods may be misleading.

Thanks for the info re P/E, I am relatively new to shares and still have that "invincible" attitude which will no doubt cost me big money when my luck runs out - but......

I am not sure if P/E comes into play yet as they have just started producing oil.

I believe that in the short term the share price will drop as I suspect that some "hidden costs" will emerge (maybe when they hedged the oil at $70, they hedged a certain volume which they cannot produce and have to buy the shortfall on the open market at $110 per barrel).

Having said that, I believe that the long term future of the share is very positive IF they have the large reserves they claim to have. The other reason for my bullishness is that the Chinese are a very patient race and do not just throw their money away either - they have the man-power to study all the facts and would not have paid $600 million for something that is not going to make a profit !!

So, the "Bernard Recommendation" is to buy in the dips and hang onto the share for a few years - it might just pay enough dividends to fill up your tank irrespective of the price of oil.

cordelia · 20 March 2008

does anyone what happened to the price this afternoon? Trading halted and the price gapped down to 1.62 when it opened again

blues · 20 March 2008

Dropped from $1.85 to $1.62 in the closing auction for some reason. Hope someone doesnt know something we dont.

Cheers

jackson8 · 20 March 2008

blues said:
Dropped from $1.85 to $1.62 in the closing auction for some reason. Hope someone doesnt know something we dont.

Cheers

article on reuters concerning sinopec and drop in share price due to some issues . best read yourself may have something to do with price drop

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSHKG32386020080320

Kat82 · 29 March 2008

The Piper said:
OK just say the production for AED as a joint venture partener is 8000 bpd.
AED is now cashed up with all debts paid. Their oil price is hedged at US$77per barrel for the next 6 months, extraction costs are $25/bl leaving $52 in the bank. 8000 times $52 equals $416000.00 per day, or$151.84million per year. That is earnings per share of $1.00 net approximately assuming oil does not increase in value.
Note that the US military are budgeting on oil at $225pbl.
Dont panic.
In fact you can walk around with a big smile on your face

Hi, it appears that AED needs to pay 40% tax (PRRT). It will knock off 40 cents per share from your estimate.

jonojpsg · 1 April 2008

I can't see why this is not sailing back into the blue?? With the deal signed off, and a net cash position post deal of $350m, why are they still only sitting around this MC??

Surely the SP will have to move to reflect the oil that is flowing

oldblue · 1 April 2008

Still a few regulatory approvals needed before the deal is done and dusted.
Market in its present mood wants to see all the i's dotted and the t's crossed.

jimski · 18 April 2008

I have been away for two weeks - can anyone update me as to where AED stands now? Has the Chinese deal been completed or are we in a SP limbo waiting for it to be inked? Is anyone excited about AED anymore?? Very little action on this board....

oldblue · 18 April 2008

Hi jimski

You know as much as anyone!

No company announcements since 31 March. Anything else is pure speculation.

blues · 18 April 2008

I had an email response from David Dix learly April. He said everything is going along well and there are no oustanding matters but that it is just a question of procedure and getting things right. He did say that things take a little longer when you are dealing with a company owned 75% owned by the PRC. Planning and budgets for work on Puffin have been done and will be released after all relevant approvals have been granted.

Cheers

AED Blunder · 20 April 2008

I am referring to the last post He did say that things take a little longer when you are dealing with a company owned 75% owned by the PRC I find it so difficult to believe how thick the collective hides of these 'managers' are. Having lost in excess of $330,000 with my investment in AED, I have written to Mr. Dix and his colleagues on many many occasions. Be it in the form of letters or Faxes, all of these approaches and pleas for a detailed explanation for the sharp decline (crash) of AED's share price remain unanswered. I also asked for an Email address, as none is listed on their 'amazing' website. In the middle of February I lodged a complaint with ASIC, which still remains unanswered. I acknowledge that there are a lot of other ASX listed and unlisted Australian run companies that have gone bankrupt in recent months, but I have never been personally involved. These people have taken me completely by surprise. As far as I know, all AED board members have been retained, even though each of these individuals have proven to be completely incompetent. Now they are complaining about the way a Chinese run company is conducting its business? They should just be extremely grateful that they have almost been bought out.

AED - AED Oil

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