AED - AED Oil

Snakey said:

It was a strong close and it may even buck the trend against the dow tomorrow. Its been a very long down trend and I dont think it will correct it self in one day. 10 to 1 dollar is a big fall and things look promising in the short term in there recent reports. I got onboard just after the lunch time low. At $1.80 just last week I think we still have a lot of room for movement

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Well it did finish above its 7 day average.

Dow futures +31 as of 5.37 EST..

You will find that a stock which has been oversold will return to normality when those who sold buy back into it inevitably lifting prices.

I am not sure whether we will see $11 level again but anything possible.

I am sure it will receive publicity at least from the media.. who knows

agro said:

also have noticed alot of trades under $500 = bots or some form of takeover??

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Maybe they were $5,000 trades when they bought in????

I bought in at 93c sold all out $4.60 on the way up and thought I'd missed the boat. Unfortunately for some family members, I didn't sell all of theirs. At least sold some so got out ahead.

refined silver said:

Maybe they were $5,000 trades when they bought in????

I bought in at 93c sold all out $4.60 on the way up and thought I'd missed the boat. Unfortunately for some family members, I didn't sell all of theirs. At least sold some so got out ahead.

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thats true

you do get some left over stock but don't rule out the possibility..

when you see constantly on course of sales "170" every 5 minutes doesn't that ring a bell?

Oil at near time highs - up $2 over night

although the dow finished down considerably another rally on AED is expected ..

thoughts welcomed

agro said:

Oil at near time highs - up $2 over night

although the dow finished down considerably another rally on AED is expected ..

thoughts welcomed

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Yes agro and bucked the trend as thought. I think if it dropped today on poor ambient conditions (dow/asx)I think people would be all over it as this is definatly the bounce from the fall. my target here is two bucks which would make the fall 80% from $10 though it will probally shoot past and settle back there ....my two bucks
I must learn to type faster

Snakey said:

Yes agro and bucked the trend as thought. I think if it dropped today on poor ambient conditions (dow/asx)I think people would be all over it as this is definatly the bounce from the fall. my target here is two bucks which would make the fall 500% from $10 though it will probally shoot past and settle back there ....my two bucks

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very strong support - who knows whats going on behind the scenes

very close to its 21 day average now

agro said:

very strong support - who knows whats going on behind the scenes

very close to its 21 day average now

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Lightning fast bounce. I would like to see this stay above $1.80 for the rest of the day for this to be a chance to run further. buyers seem still strong and sellers still less than half the buyers.
Will show chart soon

Target reached out at 2.02 side lines for me for a while will watch for future events to see whats happenning here. thank you aed oil good luck holders unfortunatly my intra day chart is out of date so wont be posting it up

Anyhow, this will be my last post on AED, as it may come across as downramping, rather than simply a friendly warning ... but I wouldn't be all that confident based on this bounce that troubles are over. AFG, and CNP also bounced and look now.

Total lack of market information if there is any positive news to be had. I'm sure somebody may know something, but no announcements mean that joe blow shareholder doesn't!

If we look at December (see chart), there was a strong buying spree based on from what I remember absolutely no announcements at the time. Were a few prominent broker reports still putting out revised targets somewhere around $7-$8 I remember, which was probably the cause. You have to question whether this was just to allow some to offload a bunch of stock, as after this dropped rapidly.

But a trade is a trade for short-termers... for long-term.. more information needed!

Showing signs of over bought now but people dont want to give up top payers will be hurt and I think caution should be advised Sellers building in strength and the top has been found down hill for a while consolidation aT MY TARGET $2 IMO for a week or so

WOOSH I got burnt...

I was in and out and making money.

Got in at 2.70 went to exit at 2.95. Next thing I know BAM its back to 2.60 and slipping...EEK

Lots of dirty burnt fingers today.

Hopefully it is Nexus Energy to acquire AED oil on market, like it did on Anzon before.

Compared with AED oil, Nexus Energy is a much safer oil explorer. It seems AED may become a takeover target of Nexus.

**********NEWS on 23 Jan 2008***********

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Nexus Energy Ltd., the Australian oil company developing a natural gas liquids project, agreed to buy rival Anzon Australia Ltd. for about A$648 million ($564 million) in cash and stock, topping an offer from Arc Energy Ltd.

The merged company will have oil production of 4,600 barrels a day this year from Anzon's Basker-Manta project, rising to 16,900 barrels with the start-up of Nexus's Longtom gas field off the southeast coast in 2009. The start-up of Nexus's $1 billion Crux gas liquids project off the northwest coast and of the gas part of the Basker project will boost output to more than 57,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by 2011, Nexus said.

The increased size of the company will enable it to consider international investments, Tchacos said on the conference call. It will continue to study ``all opportunities'' for further acquisitions, which may include AED Oil Ltd., he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net

Weihuawang said:

Hopefully it is Nexus Energy to acquire AED oil on market, like it did on Anzon before.

Compared with AED oil, Nexus Energy is a much safer oil explorer. It seems AED may become a takeover target of Nexus.

**********NEWS on 23 Jan 2008***********

Jan. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Nexus Energy Ltd., the Australian oil company developing a natural gas liquids project, agreed to buy rival Anzon Australia Ltd. for about A$648 million ($564 million) in cash and stock, topping an offer from Arc Energy Ltd.

The merged company will have oil production of 4,600 barrels a day this year from Anzon's Basker-Manta project, rising to 16,900 barrels with the start-up of Nexus's Longtom gas field off the southeast coast in 2009. The start-up of Nexus's $1 billion Crux gas liquids project off the northwest coast and of the gas part of the Basker project will boost output to more than 57,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by 2011, Nexus said.

The increased size of the company will enable it to consider international investments, Tchacos said on the conference call. It will continue to study ``all opportunities'' for further acquisitions, which may include AED Oil Ltd., he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net

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I hope they don't. I own NXS, and the debt that AED has would be enough to sink just about any company.

Just day traders pushing the stock IMO. I saw it reach 2.90 then massive drop back to 2.50.

I can see this back to $1.20 next week.

Gents, a reminder that the posting of unsupported price targets is frowned upon at ASF. A chart, or FA or something is required, rather than 'gut feel'.

chops_a_must said:

I hope they don't. I own NXS, and the debt that AED has would be enough to sink just about any company.

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Sold 900 shares of AED @ $1.96 and bought 1000 shares of NXS in the morning trade, still have 2800 shares of AED on hand.

Looking at course of trades on comsec site there appears that at 7.05 am there was a trade of 20000 shares at $7.50
does anyone understand what this is as personally do not quite understand what is going on.

=DJ INTERVIEW: AED Oil Still Cashflow Positive - Chairman15/02/2008 12:26PM AEST
By Alex Wilson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

MELBOURNE (Dow Jones)--Timor Sea oil producer AED Oil Ltd. (AED.AU) said late Thursday the company remains cashflow positive despite its production problems and still has a number of parties seriously looking at taking an interest in its project.

Lower than expected production from the company's Puffin project and concerns about overdue debts saw AED Oil shares crash to a low of A$1.01 this week, from a high of more than A$11 in October last year, as the market worries about a cashflow crunch.

AED founder and Chairman David Dix told Dow Jones Newswires the company is facing difficulties, with production well below what was expected, but that it is working hard to get its project back on track.

"We obviously have significant production problems compared to where we thought we were and we have got a whole lot of liabilities," he said.

"But we are still producing profitably, we are still cashflow positive in relation to our ongoing operations. Taking all that into account you have still got a fair amount of oil in a region that is 100% owned by a company, and the optionality of that is enormous."

AED has appointed Macquarie to carry out a strategic review and interested parties are carrying out due diligence on Puffin as the company looks for a partner to take a stake and provide a much needed cash injection.

Analysts say the outcome of this farm in process looms as a key event for AED, and the arrival of a white knight could help the company start to rebuild market confidence.

Dix said there had been 17 parties involved in the process, 11 are still active and a handful appear to have potential, with more interest from offshore parties than local players.

Investor confidence in AED hit a new low this week when Norwegian drilling services company ARG Group ASA (AGO.ASA) said AED owes it A$41.5 million, which is now overdue, for work done on the Puffin project.

However, the stock rallied on Thursday, climbing 40% and extended this Friday, to be up 63% at A$2.36at 0125 GMT.

Dix said he did not know what was behind the bounce in the share price and analysts are also puzzled, with one suggesting it may be due to some investors closing out short positions.

One criticism of AED has been that it did not look for a partner earlier to spread the cost and risk of the commissioning of Puffin, and Dix concedes this is a "fair comment".

"We wanted to get up to a certain stage where it had realized what we saw as the fair value of the project before we started getting into that situation, because otherwise we could be selling our shareholders short," he said.

"We need more back up in relation to joint venture partners. We are the only company in Australia who own 100% of its asset in this sector, which is terrific if everything is going right but not so good if it's not."

Shareholders in AED have this week expressed concerns about the company's abilities to pay of its debts and analysts say without a farm in partner it may struggle.

Compounding the difficulties is Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, which has forced AED to cease oil production at Puffin at a time when it can scarcely afford to lose the revenue.

Dix said he can understand investor concerns, but that the market sell off has been overdone.

"I don't discount the fact that there are risks because we do owe people money," Dix said.

"But we are going through processes and people are working with us to ameliorate those risks and hopefully realize some significant value."

Analysts said there have also been questions raised over the AED's technical performance in configuring the drilling of wells.

Dix said the company is now working with specialist third party consultants to ensure the key Puffin 11 well does not face the same issues.

"If we get Puffin 11 in there we are going to be producing up to 20,000 barrels from that well alone, which suddenly changes the profile significantly," he said.

Dix said the company is doing all it can to extract itself from its current situation and return to realizing value for shareholders.

"Every day we draw a line under the previous day and say, 'OK let's see what can tackle and what more we can do to get the company to realize the potential that it has'," he said.

"I think that is the only way, in these sorts of awkward situations, that you can handle it."


-By Alex Wilson, Dow Jones Newswires; 61-3-9671-4313; alex.wilson@dowjones.com


thought something was going on.. keep a watch on it as it is trading above its 21 day average now (do i post a chart cause i said that?)

agro said:

thought something was going on.. keep a watch on it as it is trading above its 21 day average now (do i post a chart cause i said that?)

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The more information you can post to support your view the better.

The problem we have is when people make assertions in stock threads without backing them up with any kind of supporting arguments or analysis and this is something we are going to be getting tougher on.

In short, the rule is: If you make an assertion (e.g This stock is undervalued) then you must explain WHY you believe that.

I think that is a reasonable expectation.

Joe Blow said:

The more information you can post to support your view the better.

The problem we have is when people make assertions in stock threads without backing them up with any kind of supporting arguments or analysis and this is something we are going to be getting tougher on.

In short, the rule is: If you make an assertion (e.g This stock is undervalued) then you must explain WHY you believe that.

I think that is a reasonable expectation.

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yeah totally agree Joe - constructive rather than ramping

alright see what happens as a price query has been received