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AED - AED Oil

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ithatheekret said:
I don't normally comment on my trades in stocks , I will discuss the stock no problems , but in brief this was a great shorting stock from $6.22 down .

Anyone that caught the $9.00 region is a champion .
Click to expand...

So you think it will go down further to pennies? But AED does seem in lots of trouble, it hires MACQ to get more fund for its development.
 
:bad:Yes clearly I should have been shorting this stock...not buying at $9

Ive never shorted before, but I reckon if I start doing it now....you watch..the market will rebound..lol.

AED absolutley smashed today..yay:bad:
 
LoL !!! take one for the team and short then....
It would do us all a favour !!!

Where is the relief from all this insanity ?!!?!?
 
I think people have lost sight of the fact that the fundamentals remain solid for AED. Rollercoaster ride of last 5 months has not helped the reputation of the stock in the market and investors are overly wary. AED looks cheap to me at current prices but even having faith in the company I cannot bring myself to add to my position in the current climate. I guess I am one of many.
 
What is going on with AED? Is it simply lack of news that has the stock drifting endlessly downwards? I can't find any negative news.... Can anyone shed some light on this for me please?
 
Jimski:
I think you hit the nail on the head there. Right now no news is bad news.
They said back on the 10th Jan to expect the next crude offtake around mid Jan and baring miracles they missed that one.......
 
boff said:
Jimski:
I think you hit the nail on the head there. Right now no news is bad news.
They said back on the 10th Jan to expect the next crude offtake around mid Jan and baring miracles they missed that one.......
Click to expand...

Its not bad, but some risk i think

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -18.2 117.6 128.1 198.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS
 
boff said:
They said back on the 10th Jan to expect the next crude offtake around mid Jan and baring miracles they missed that one.......
Click to expand...

They never said they were going to make an announcement for each & every offtake. The previous offtake wasn't announced either. It's quite common for companies to announce the 1st or 2nd but thats generally it.

You'll have to wait until tomorrow when the quarterly is released
 
Can't understand why AED consistanly leaves its quarterly reports to the last minute (or afterwards).

I think part of the sell down today was due to the lack of the quarterly ie. what are they hiding?

Even if its bad news, surely its better to get it out there than worry the market & have to release it anyway.

Don't hold, so it doesn't bother me, but does seem silly. Get the feeling they see reporting to the market as a pain the butt.
 
I share your comments JET328 they really do hold back - but finally the AED announcements for the December ending quarter were released late today after trading was closed.

I thought I'd add my comments/highlights:

Strategic Review
* Confirmation AED are seeking farm-in with an external party - potentially a 'well creditialed' Australian oiler or International player;
* Farm-in expected to be finalised by the end of March;

Production
* Last quarter 839,698 barrels of tapis grade oil;
* Oct 6th Production started - hence from my calculations - 87 days in production cycle for the last quarter div by barrels of oil produced (ie, 839,698 / 87) = Approx production average of 9,650 odd BOPD to date;
* External consultant believes daily production rates can be increased 2-3 times;
So going by this say an increase x2 = 19,300 BOPD or x3 = 28,950.
* Following rectification of the issues potentially by mid year, the resulting outcome will probably be in between these figures, pretty close to initial projections never the less;
* Over 1million barrels produced to date;
* $33 operating costs for each barrel of oil - still a high net profit for high grade tapis;

Reserves
* Revised estimates for prospects = net result of reserves unchanged - its all still there;

Looking forward
* Commentary leaves the door open / suggests Macquarie to inject more capital into the project. Highly probable given the prospects and their current position with AED already;

* Puffin NE1 could be drilled mid year, with production online as early as the 3rd quarter this year;
* Mistakes with the Puffin SW development drilling / well issues will be 'avoided' and AED are confident that they can sustain 20k BOPD for the new development;

> Net position for me on AED - bullish medium-long term, hesitant short term due to market factors and market players out there;
 
AED report now has to be read like you read a legal document. No admission as to current rate of production. They are hoping that the calculations are done over the long period which includes the high production rates that occurred early. Thats why 9000 bopd average looks like the production has stabilised. In fact current production is now below 6000 bopd! (1,000,000 barrels-840,000/30 days).

Also they have commented on only Puffin 7 having the potential to increase after remedial works of 2 to 3 times. No mention of puffin 8 it may or may not be able to increase.
The increases will be on current production which given is below 6000 bopd between Puffin 7 and 8 then it is more likely to give an increase of the order of 3000 to 6000 bopd additional production.

Also what has happened to the gaslift which was to increase production ?

Until production stabilises there will be continued pressure on the share price. Long term it will now depend on how the search for a JV partner goes do not expect miracles here.

sadly Icharus
 
Icharus> Haha very true about the report looking like a legal document. But when you've been punished for publicising marketing hype, then you would go into a shell and do the very same.

AED is opening up a bit more, but I don't expect full market transparency until such time they have confirmed everything. The reason of course, is that
they would only be opening themselves to more market hammering....

The production rates provided give some indication of BOPD, but they have been testing and tweaking different means of extraction. But good question over the gas lift testing - they should have remained consistent and made further clarification over that.

With the prospects AED has, there is no doubt many a suitor interested in this. I expect a big player is involved, but time will tell.

SP low short term, when things get going, this will run. I can't be bullish enough, but again these are only my thoughts.... DOYR...
 
Talk about a fall from grace! Today SP falling another 8% today. I do agree that no news from this company at the moment is bad news.

The CEO should be doing everything to identify production problems and have them rectified. No news implies to me they are having a lot of issues still.

Anyone still holding these guys? I got out at avg of $9.70 odd when the first downgrades were ann. In hindsight one of best moves I have made considering where SP is today.
 
Am still holding Not sure whether to average down now they have dropped even lower than LOW!!

Even at 6000bopd they are making US$55 x 6000 per day = $330k per day which is US$100m a year. Theie MC is currently around US$270m which makes them pretty attractive IMO so I think I will...hold my breath and taer the plunge.....
 
jonojpsg said:
Even at 6000bopd they are making US$55 x 6000 per day = $330k per day which is US$100m a year. Theie MC is currently around US$270m which makes them pretty attractive IMO so I think I will...hold my breath and taer the plunge.....
Click to expand...
Just check what their minimum lease payments and interest expenses are likely to be.

My understanding of it is there's not the FCF left to redrill the field, meaning they'll need to go to market (debt or equity) for the funds to do it.
 
bought a small parcel of AED for less than $2 ,seems very cheap on past glory days , maybe on the next market bounce they will spring back to $2.50
or so ,but it seems the company is screaming for some outside assistance!
 
I am not so sure, closed on the low making a new yearly low, chartwise looks terrible.

People have been trying to pick this ones bottom since $5-6 and are now in a world of hurt. I wonder what if there are more downgrades on the way?
 
I been watching and I was a holder at $8.97, I got out after I lost 50% and saw there was no bounce back.

The company is no doing itself any favours by not releasing information. I dont know how the CEO can still look at his company and go to sleep at night. It's lost over 80% it's SP.
 
Unfortunately, this is one company that looks like it doesn't give a toss about it's shareholders. Lack of information, lack of transparency, misleading information.

However, that said, having not being burnt from AED (sold out above $10), tens of millions of barrels of oil is still worth billions of dollars. Even if it's not AED, surely it must be a takeover target based on the field itself??

No doubt another company may be able to do much more with the field than AED has been able to achieve through what looks like pure incompetence, but surely there must be buyers out there such as Santos, Oil Search, AWE, etc, etc that surely must be kind of curious?

Where this may leave existing shareholders is always the risk, I'm sure they will be at the back of the que with any takeover or farm-in if this eventuates.

I have an order for $1.50, and reckon there is a good chance it will be met. That said, one that you have to be prepared to lose the lot.
 
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