AED - AED Oil

sfx · 7 December 2007

laurie said:
True for example look at COE and see how management have kept shareholders informed especially it's MD Mike Scott

cheers laurie

At least Mike doesn't wear golf hats to AGMs....

I made several comments earlier about AED announcements. I do like COE and their announcements. They're professional rather than speculative in their nature. Very few words are used, and they are clear cut. Take a look at their recent announcement - very objective and gets the message across, but not playing on words, prudent given their initial findings with Kurnia.

If AED didn't play with words and use marketing type language, then this SP wouldn't have taken such a hit. Of course these are my opinions only....

chops_a_must · 10 December 2007

Well, I'm completely out of this now.

Taken out just above the potential resistance zone around 5.20. I'm 90% sure this will go a bit higher, but I'm not game to take it on. About 6.50 is the next target, but that's fairly brave.

But for a trade of about 3R, and 25% in a week, I'm as happy as a pig in ****.

michael_selway · 10 December 2007

prawn_86 said:
michael_selway said:

Might be a good buy

Click to expand...

Personally i would never buy a stock that has so much negative sentiment surrounding the management or disclosure.

Thats just me, but reliable and trustworthy management is one of the most important factors in my (long term) stock choices

Hm true but look at the rebound today!

Sometimes it depends on how low it goes i.e. value etc

thx

MS

prawn_86 · 10 December 2007

True, hence why i stated long term.

If its a short term trade (which i suck at anyway) its only really price action in the short term rather than long term fundamentals

Bush Trader · 11 December 2007

What no comments on today’s action? The stock with no friends has just found some! Technically do we call this a trend reversal now that the stock has broken through the moving average?

Cheers

BT

Fed23 · 11 December 2007

Did anyone buy back in when it was in the mid $3?

I was waiting for it to hit 3.50 for a second time but it never did. So I lucked out

nomore4s · 11 December 2007

nomore4s said:
Okay, here is my take on AED after the all panic selling of the last few weeks.

Today looks like we might have seen a selling climax with a strong reversal from todays low to finish at todays high on massive volume(stopping vol).
I would now be expecting some sort of rally, to somewhere between $5 & $6 maybe as high as $6.50 but this is purely a guess and it may not even reach $5.00 would depend on how much supply is still around at these higher levels. From there it may retest the $4.30-$4.50 level and then at some stage I would also expect it to retest the $3.50-$4.00 level but I would want to see that retest on alot less volume then we have seen today.
It could be worth a short term trade but will be quite risky imo, as it will most probably turn down quite quickly after the next rally so you would want a tight trailing stop, also there is no real idea on how far the rally will extend if it does rally so it is quite hard to work out the risk to reward ratio.

Today looks to me like some bigger players have come in at around the $4.00 area but this is purely my opinion.
I will now be looking for signs of accumulation before taking a position.

IMO this stock is a perfect example of why you should have some sort of stop or max loss area where you cut losses or get out with some sort of profit while you can as when panic takes control you can end up with massive losses. You can always buy back into the stock later when it all settles down again.

My opinion & discussion only, to be taken with a grain of salt as I'm often wrong.

Ok, the Automatic rally is underway but looks to be running out of legs with todays ultra high volume and the close well off the highs a sure sign that the sellers have come back into the market. Prices could probe a bit higher still but if we see a close a fair way off the high tomorrow I will be looking to go short, with an initial target of between $4.30-$4.50. I will also look to go short if prices probe under todays low of $5.65.

VViCKiD · 13 December 2007

Any one get out of this one recently ??
I am thinking about it... Wat does everyone think ?
Looks like its run is coming to an end...

chops_a_must · 13 December 2007

VViCKiD said:
Any one get out of this one recently ??
I am thinking about it... Wat does everyone think ?
Looks like its run is coming to an end...

Yeah, I said the upper target might be about 6.50, but I wasn't prepared to take it that high. In any case, it failed just in front of it and looks to be collapsing once again.

I really hope no-one bought into this one on this suckers rally.

VViCKiD · 13 December 2007

Holy crap !!! look at the sell off !!!
that's vicious !!!
one of the worst sell-offs i've ever seen in a stock that i own..

jonojpsg · 14 December 2007

nomore4s said:
Ok, the Automatic rally is underway but looks to be running out of legs with todays ultra high volume and the close well off the highs a sure sign that the sellers have come back into the market. Prices could probe a bit higher still but if we see a close a fair way off the high tomorrow I will be looking to go short, with an initial target of between $4.30-$4.50. I will also look to go short if prices probe under todays low of $5.65.

Thanks for that pointer nomore4s - I actually took you up on that tip and shorted at 5.62, which is proving to be a good call at this stage At what point would you suggest buying out, mid $4 range? or just keep an eye on it?

Surely this can't go much below $4 though - if they can ramp up production to even 15000 bpd this makes them well worth buying at these prices. They will make enough profit in the next three years to buy into some other prospects if SW doesn't prove up. Or give us the profits

VViCKiD · 14 December 2007

What does everyone think about this stock right now ? Do you guys reckon the support line is around the $4.80 mark ? Has anyone got anjy analyst reports one this one ??
Thanks in advance.

rub92me · 14 December 2007

Most recent support is around 3.50, but I question how useful TA is in this case. A bit of good news and it may shoot up, further bad news and it could go in freefall again.

chops_a_must · 15 December 2007

rub92me said:
Most recent support is around 3.50, but I question how useful TA is in this case. A bit of good news and it may shoot up, further bad news and it could go in freefall again.

I don't think good news is going to help this. It is quite clear from the brokerage reports that they think the management have absolutely zero credibility. Any more negative news is going to smash this stock. And TA has been very good for a few of us lately on this one.

VViCKiD said:
What does everyone think about this stock right now ? Do you guys reckon the support line is around the $4.80 mark ? Has anyone got anjy analyst reports one this one ??
Thanks in advance.

I have the level around 4.80 as a fib level, and it is a bit of support over the long term. I'm not sure if that really counts now though.

jonojpsg said:
Thanks for that pointer nomore4s - I actually took you up on that tip and shorted at 5.62, which is proving to be a good call at this stage At what point would you suggest buying out, mid $4 range? or just keep an eye on it?

Surely this can't go much below $4 though - if they can ramp up production to even 15000 bpd this makes them well worth buying at these prices. They will make enough profit in the next three years to buy into some other prospects if SW doesn't prove up. Or give us the profits

If this sucks up into the weekly pivot on Monday, I'll be looking to short, with the aim of scaling out at 4.80 and perhaps below $4. It appears that many brokers question the viability of the well, and even if it will remain functional for even a modest amount of time. They also seem to think that there will need to be more capital raising, which if true, could see the SP a lot lower than I could imagine.

nomore4s · 15 December 2007

jonojpsg said:
Thanks for that pointer nomore4s - I actually took you up on that tip and shorted at 5.62, which is proving to be a good call at this stage At what point would you suggest buying out, mid $4 range? or just keep an eye on it?

Surely this can't go much below $4 though - if they can ramp up production to even 15000 bpd this makes them well worth buying at these prices. They will make enough profit in the next three years to buy into some other prospects if SW doesn't prove up. Or give us the profits

Firstly, I'm very much a novice and this is for discussion & educational purposes only (mine mainly) and is my personal opinion - I'm not qualified to give financial advice.

Imo I would keep an eye on anything you have a short on, as things can turn very quickly, I generally run some sort of trailing stop when short.

My current view on AED is there will probably be some sort of short term support at $4.50ish, prices might drift around this area for a while before eventually drifting back down to test the $3.50 - $4.00 area. I will be looking for any signs of accumulation before deciding what to do from there.

My best guess is it will end up in a trading range for awhile now.

Not sure what good news would do, probably only give some of the traders trapped in at higher prices a chance to get out, can't really see prices above $6.50 any time soon but you never know - that's what makes the markets interesting.

Might post a chart later when I get home, if I get a chance.

Fed23 · 18 December 2007

Currently up to $4.50 with the market going down.

Mine you at the start of the day it was in read

sfx · 18 December 2007

Fed23 said:
Currently up to $4.50 with the market going down.

Mine you at the start of the day it was in read

Spoke to soon its back down but up 6 WHOLE cents whilst this is being written :-(
I think with this market environment/sentiment this share is going nowhere for now... good time to buy in ?!

VViCKiD · 18 December 2007

I sold out at $4 ///
Does anyone know when Bearn Stearns and Morgan Stanley are due to report ? Or have they reported ?
Can anyone explain the rally at the end of the day ?

yawomanjas · 18 December 2007

Vvickid...

SFE futures indicated the market would be down 50 odd points...so it finished roughly what the futures market indicated...

I think people realised that stocks had been oversold a bit at 10:15 when the market lost another 150...and went bargain hunting..man wish I had more cash

VViCKiD · 18 December 2007

Thanks yawomanjas.. Same ..... I was about to cop a margin call so I dropped a few stocks.

I wanted to buy CNP @ $0.50 and LGL@ $2.95
I wish I had more money...

AED - AED Oil

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