AED - AED Oil

yawomanjas said:

Yeah well the company did reiterate the reserves in their ann...its an "equipment related issue". I do honestly believe them. Again these things happen...DYOR

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I think I've done enough research to conclude what management do, say, and are about...

A simple phone call is all it takes to see what a mob of donkeys these guys are.

PE ratios for oil e&p coys, especially one with a single field with a short life, are of very limited relevance. From memory it has been discussed quite a bit on AED before. Look to 2P reserves or DCF to value it. The unfortunate thing is that both reserves and cash flow are in doubt given the problems they are having with Puffin. The sooner AED release detail about what’s happening, the better.

nomore4s said:

I agree with this Chops, I think we will some sort of short lived rally now, with todays action showing some signs of support coming in. Will post a chart and more info on my best guess on how things might unfold from here when I get home tonight.

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Okay, here is my take on AED after the all panic selling of the last few weeks.

Today looks like we might have seen a selling climax with a strong reversal from todays low to finish at todays high on massive volume(stopping vol).
I would now be expecting some sort of rally, to somewhere between $5 & $6 maybe as high as $6.50 but this is purely a guess and it may not even reach $5.00 would depend on how much supply is still around at these higher levels. From there it may retest the $4.30-$4.50 level and then at some stage I would also expect it to retest the $3.50-$4.00 level but I would want to see that retest on alot less volume then we have seen today.
It could be worth a short term trade but will be quite risky imo, as it will most probably turn down quite quickly after the next rally so you would want a tight trailing stop, also there is no real idea on how far the rally will extend if it does rally so it is quite hard to work out the risk to reward ratio.

Today looks to me like some bigger players have come in at around the $4.00 area but this is purely my opinion.
I will now be looking for signs of accumulation before taking a position.

IMO this stock is a perfect example of why you should have some sort of stop or max loss area where you cut losses or get out with some sort of profit while you can as when panic takes control you can end up with massive losses. You can always buy back into the stock later when it all settles down again.

My opinion & discussion only, to be taken with a grain of salt as I'm often wrong.

Are there any comments concerning my earlier post on next offtake dates?

Having re read their latest announcement realised this at end of ann.


Further, it is noted that the next offtake from the North East production facility will
be undertaken by the 30th November 2008.

I was hoping this a mistake as they had previously ann.

The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29
November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters
resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take place following
this.
Trevor

Chops, I for one very much appreciate your comment after speaking to the directors and the "wind" debacle. It helped me with the issue of management credibility, and so I was happy to make a nice profit, after selling when the first news of SW issues came up.

chops_a_must said:

Management were known to be lying out their a*ses well before any of this blew up. I posted about it 2 or 3 times in here, but I don't think anyone took any notice. There was also a big length of time in which to take profits.

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michael_selway said:

Hi short mine life is still an issue u think?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -18.2 195.5 164.2 147.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

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Hm i quite bearish on this stock before it even happenned!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -18.2 107.0 220.9 247.5
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

Isn't it all about "buy on rumour, sell on news"?

Everyone thought this was going to go great guns because they are sitting on so much oil, the price of oil is going crazy, now when they come to actually try pulling it out of the ground for the first time, they have a few technical problems.

What it now comes down to is how well they can overcome this and start pulling it out of the ground fast enough. No one knows, so the stock is sold, breaking all the stop losses on the way down – ready for the next bit of news.

Unless more positive news comes, this will probably bounce up and down for a while.

Cheers.

Can someone please explain what is the go with these "pre open" trades?

I honestly dont know enough about stocks to know.

Go Nuke said:

Can someone please explain what is the go with these "pre open" trades?

I honestly dont know enough about stocks to know.

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They are crossed trades off market, typically between brokers or larger accounts.

Occur outside of trading hours but are still reported back to ASX where CHESS accounts for them.

Correct me if wrong.

Some good news at last..... AED was crowned 'Loser of the week' in todays 'Inside Business' Program on ABC television. Only a few months earlier the CEO bragged about his company on the same program during an interview with Alan Kohler, who looked really impressed. Now, there is something else that these gentleman can add to their individuel portfolios, published on AED's website. If you like these kind of success stories, also take a look at Lakes Oil (LKO), with their shares having dropped from 0.08 to currently 0.009. You have to buy a scientific calculator that displays several zeros after the comma to work with this 'beauty'. And get ready here as well, as there will be an opportunity soon to buy in at a really good price. The next capital raining should just be around the corner.

Hi AED,
YOUR COMMENT "AND GET READY HERE AS WELL, AS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY SOON TO BUY IN AT A REALLY GOOD PRICE"
Maybe the time is now - on Friday AED had a good close, long bar range with open close near /at top with long tail and good volume. Looks like there was quite a bit of buying going on?
This type bar has a good probability of being the precurser to a change in trend - usually within five days
However - who knows for sure - if it opens on Monday above the high of Fridays bar, it could be worth a punt
Peter

Hi Peter, Still holding 45,000 AED shares (bought @ $11), I would be more than relieved if this free fall would finally come to a sudden stop. My comments regarding a buying opportunity related more to LKO. Perhaps a bit confusing, as this should have been a brand new thread. Anyway, lets hope that the oil uptake over the weekend was successful and that a few other issues are being resolved as well. There is a lot at stake here for me here.

Today's Australian

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22858027-643,00.html


AED earns reprieve with Puffin order
Nigel Wilson, Energy writer | December 03, 2007

STRUGGLING oil production minnow AED Oil had some respite on Friday when its share price held up for the day.

And the imminent announcement of a second oil shipment from its Puffin project in the Timor Sea may keep the sharks at bay.

After hitting an intra-day low of $3.50, AED Oil shares bounded back on Friday to close at $4.30 on a volume of more than 4.1 million.

AED Oil has been hit relentlessly in the past month by poor reports from Puffin.

It has also been hampered by the absence of chairman and motivating force David Dix, who has been in hospital undergoing surgery.

Mr Dix is expected to be back in the chair this week and will attempt to correct the impression that the Puffin project, the company's main asset, is a failure.

AED's strategy was the rapid development of all Puffin reservoirs for oil development, with early exploration of significant nearby areas.

The aim is to fully develop the Puffin (including additional wells) and nearby Talbot resources between 2008 and 2010.

This year, AED raised $US85 million in a convertible bond issue and completed the conversion of the Front Puffin floating storage and offtake vessel alongside signing a marketing agreement with French giant Total.

Production began on October 6 and the first tanker load was lifted on October 29.

But the company has stated that while commissioning of the sub-sea plant and the FPSO is continuing, "oil production will be below original expectations".

AED maintains that when commissioning is completed, 20,000 barrels a day output is considered achievable.

While the market was absorbing the news that oil production was not as high as forecast and the oil/water contact in the field had been achieved somewhat earlier than expected - not an unusual event on Australia's northern coast - an exploration/appraisal well, Puffin 10, was being drilled in the southwest portion of the permit near Ashmore Reef.

"The well encountered more complex geology than expected," AED told the stock exchange last week while announcing that two sidetracks had been drilled.

The sands encountered by Puffin 10, while oil bearing were thin, which led analysts to suggest its failure raised a question on the existence of an estimated 40 million barrels in the Puffin southwest region, which still remains AED's objective.

Meantime, shareholders at AED's annual general meeting on November 21 were less than happy at the directors' remuneration report, voting it down by a substantial margin.

Today's Ann

Crude Offtake
The Company is pleased to announce that the crude oil offtake (approximately
315,000 barrels, the upper amount possible under the contract sale) scheduled for completion last weekend has been successfully carried out. Tests performed by an independent party indicate that crude oil quality continues to meet specifications.

nomore4s said:

Okay, here is my take on AED after the all panic selling of the last few weeks.

Today looks like we might have seen a selling climax with a strong reversal from todays low to finish at todays high on massive volume(stopping vol).
I would now be expecting some sort of rally, to somewhere between $5 & $6 maybe as high as $6.50 but this is purely a guess and it may not even reach $5.00 would depend on how much supply is still around at these higher levels.

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Got quite a good fill on this one first up. It appears to be respecting the pivots at this stage, but I am watching this like a very naughty child, tight stops etc. I certainly wont be wanting to hold this into next week.

chops_a_must said:

Got quite a good fill on this one first up. It appears to be respecting the pivots at this stage, but I am watching this like a very naughty child, tight stops etc. I certainly wont be wanting to hold this into next week.

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Good reversal off $4.00 today. Looks like a few buyers are coming in now too. Keep those stops tight Chops, imo it will be a short sharp rally, could be profitable still though. Good luck.

a nice reversal candle came up on friday
chart for those interested.
goodness i have to keep rabbiting on here till i have 100 characters..
before i can post message, day will nearly be over hahah
ac

I can't believe how many are complaining here.... I think there are a lot of people here who should control their emotions.

Just remember folks - you can't make a loss if you don't sell.

Yes the SP has dropped, and yes a lot of people are hurting. But do remember that this is how the market sentiment is at the moment.

As someone has stated, the market is jittery, and in my opinion, if you can't handle it, then get out.

Remember the fundamentals of the company, and with the recent offtake of circa 315k barrels over the weekend, then this shows that the company is still producing.

Of course don't take my word for it, ride your own wave....

Cheers

sfx said:

I can't believe how many are complaining here.... I think there are a lot of people here who should control their emotions.

Just remember folks - you can't make a loss if you don't sell.

Yes the SP has dropped, and yes a lot of people are hurting. But do remember that this is how the market sentiment is at the moment.

As someone has stated, the market is jittery, and in my opinion, if you can't handle it, then get out.

Remember the fundamentals of the company, and with the recent offtake of circa 315k barrels over the weekend, then this shows that the company is still producing.

Of course don't take my word for it, ride your own wave....

Cheers

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That's just silly.

Management have proved to be a bunch of cretins with absolutely no qualms for making money for themselves at the expense of ordinary shareholders. The nerve of these people is simply unbelieveable.

And suggesting people shouldn't sell, to help prop up your own investment, is just as bad.

P.S. - Because of lies from the company, no-one knows what the fundamentals are, nor do they believe any of the "fundamentals" espoused by the company. And rightly so.

chops_a_must said:

That's just silly.

Management have proved to be a bunch of cretins with absolutely no qualms for making money for themselves at the expense of ordinary shareholders. The nerve of these people is simply unbelieveable.

And suggesting people shouldn't sell, to help prop up your own investment, is just as bad.

P.S. - Because of lies from the company, no-one knows what the fundamentals are, nor do they believe any of the "fundamentals" espoused by the company. And rightly so.

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Without sounding this like to be a slinging match - lets get something straight - those are my comments / opinions only and I'm only stating the obvious, rather than propping up the stock. You on the other hand are doing the complete opposite and slandering the stock with little justification.

Your comments are border line libel, and I am surprised that the Administrators of this forum are letting you get away with this.

Of course maybe you have a case, and if so then present this point-by-point with evidence.

I agree that management of AED have a case to answer for, but I feel their only issue is being too bullish on their statements. They should have been more careful, and the market has punished the stock accordingly based on the new announcements which have 'attempted' to clarify the situation. Its unfortunate that most of us are caught up with this.

Make it as you will...