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AED - AED Oil

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It seems that the market is still thinking that AED is a risk this announcement together with the rise in price of oil and the general market today AED should be way over $11+

cheers laurie
 
Two positive Days -Is that enough to jump back in or????????????
Any thoughts anyone? It can not afford any bad news??This stock may head south?


laurie said:
It seems that the market is still thinking that AED is a risk this announcement together with the rise in price of oil and the general market today AED should be way over $11+

cheers laurie
Click to expand...
 
the barometer at hotcopper hasnt swung strongly in either direction.

The 20K bopd announcement has spooked a lot of investors and it will take time for those cuts to heal.

I look at these things as buying opportunities
 
Tapis Benchmark USD94.73/bbl
AUD/USD .9168

AUD 103.32/bbl + premium above tapis

Nice way to start off a day for AED higher oil prices

Cheers Icharus
 
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/us100-a-barrel-could-be-days-away/2007/11/02/1193619144456.html

$US100 a barrel could be days away

Jamie Freed
November 3, 2007
Advertisement

AUSTRALIAN oil producers could receive $US100 a barrel within days after the Asia-Pacific benchmark TAPIS crude price reached $US96.95 a barrel yesterday.

Some Australian producers, such as Oil Search and AED Oil, sell their oil at a premium to the TAPIS price, given the higher quality of the crude. The most expensive oil in the Asia-Pacific region yesterday was oil from the Thevenard Island joint venture off Western Australia.

The spot price of Thevenard oil - owned by Chevron, Santos and ExxonMobil - was $US97.80 a barrel, up $US4.29 from Thursday.

The Fat Prophets resources analyst Gavin Wendt said there was "every chance" oil could hit $US100 a barrel this week, given that it had already risen about 20 per cent in the past month. "It's gone from $US80 to $US90 and $US90-plus a barrel very rapidly," he said. "If we see inventories fall once again [in the US], I think it's likely that we'll see oil go through $US100 a barrel."

He said that although it was possible Australian oil could be among the first to breach $US100 a barrel, the most watched price was the West Texas Intermediate, which hit $US96.24 a barrel in New York on Thursday. TAPIS traditionally trades higher.

Merrill Lynch's North American economist, David Rosenberg, said the price of call options contracts to buy oil at $US125 a barrel in December rose 46 per cent this week, and $US100 a barrel options contracts rose to a record.

The biggest Australian beneficiaries of high oil prices are oil producers with unhedged production, premium quality crude and little or no exposure to gas, such as AED and Oil Search.

AED's general manager of crude oil marketing, Trevor Slater, said the high oil price was good from a revenue perspective but the impact had been lessened by the rise of the Australian dollar. "I think what it shows is any event which occurs in the world which jeopardises supply has a really dramatic effect. You saw this recently with the impact of the Turkish border disputes."
 
Any thoughts on AED?

Will it break up..or down.
Another good update on Puffin might help But I think I read that from the 14th of October they expected some work to take up to 55days.
So perhaps no news till early Dec.
 

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Go Nuke said:
Any thoughts on AED?

Will it break up..or down.
Another good update on Puffin might help But I think I read that from the 14th of October they expected some work to take up to 55days.
So perhaps no news till early Dec.
Click to expand...


If we get news on successful commissioning of Gas Lift process to increase production rate up, even a little, from 20K-25K bpd then we should break up.
 
jimski said:
If we get news on successful commissioning of Gas Lift process to increase production rate up, even a little, from 20K-25K bpd then we should break up.
Click to expand...

Puffin SW - Puffin-10 Drilling Update
Drilling of Puffin-10 has made progress in the horizontal section and is currently
drilling ahead at 3608m MD (Measured Depth). Depth along hole is 1997m TVDSS
(True Vertical Depth Subsea). A minor oil bearing sand has been intersected but the
main UK1a sand is expected to be intersected near the existing Puffin-2 well in the
near future.
Production Update – Puffin NE
Most systems at Puffin NE have been commissioned; gaslift has operated on an interim
basis with some tuning and equipment issues preventing the lifting of production to
the revised levels. As indicated in the last update, production in the short term has
been significantly held back to facilitate gaslift and water handling systems
commissioning and accordingly current production is running at approximately 10,000
bopd. The next offtake of approximately 315,000 barrels is scheduled for 29
November 2007. All systems should be fully commissioned and equipment matters
resolved in the short term. A review of production levels will take place following
this.
Down 12.5%. Need some good news for once.
 
The market did not like today announcement!!!!!

Currently down -1.150 -13.04%

AED 7.67 -1.150 -13.04% high of 8.74 and low of 7.62 1,424,714 shares $11,239,228 @ 12-Nov 02:51:43 PM

I sold my AED last week.
 
I sold my 8,800 shares about 1 week ago but now intend to buy the same amount back at the lower price as I firmly believe that we are at bottom and that the sp should appreciate substantially from here.

The basis of my belief is that there are others more qualified and closer to the action who are very confident that the current teething problems WILL be fixed and production will revert to the forecast 30k bpd.
 

greenfs

I wouldn’t be so sure we have hit a bottom quite yet, this announcement may weigh down on the share price in the ST as investors will be reluctant to jump on this with production already so much lower than initial targets even after the gas lift was introduced. Things have really gone from bad to worse, so don’t see why investors would have an optimistic view over this one at the moment. But I can see why you are so excited because the potential is definitely there if things come good.
 
At a close today of $7.58, it has broken through the bottom Bollinger band. I wonder how many stop losses were triggered today for those that rode it from $8 -$11ish. I watched the trade most of the arvo and it seamed to me that there were accumulators that were timing the pulling of bids to collect the waves of selling. The volume was nothing extraordinary which also leads me to believe that much of the institutional support is intact for the moment.

Cheers

BT

Broker Sentiment courtesy of FNArena as at 2/11/07

Broker Date Rating Recommendation Target Price % to Reach Target

Credit Suisse 02-Nov-07 1 Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral $11.00 44.7%
Today almost a month ago the broker downgraded this stock to Neutral, only to reverse that decision today: Outperform. If you're looking for a reason don't look further than the fact that AED's share price has tumbled 19.8% in between both reports.

Deutsche Bank 23-Oct-07 1 Buy $10.65 40.1%
Target $10.65 (was $8.30). The broker has revised down its earnings estimates significantly this year to reflect some teething problems as the company starts up production. Despite this it retains its positive rating, lifting its price target to reflect stronger oil prices.

Macquarie 23-Oct-07 3 Neutral $9.04 18.9%
An unexpectedly high water cut has led to production downgrades at Puffin, and the broker has responded by reducing earnings by 21% in FY08 and 09. The broker suspects this production will ultimately be lost, and while highlighting Puffin's upside, it warns of its high risk. Target falls from $9.94 to $9.04.

UBS 23-Oct-07 1 Buy $11.18 47.1%
Water in the oil at Puffin have led to a production downgrade and hence earnings reductions of 15% and 14.3% in FY08-09. The broker still rates AED Buy on Puffin upside, but warns this depends a lot on a successful ramp-up. Target falls from $11.48 to $11.18.
 

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Indeed...how aweful was that action today!

Only comfort I got was that its good to see insto's get it wrong sometimes too (issuing buys etc) as BT pointed out.
 
Todays Age stated on trading November 12:

AED Oil sank $1.24, or 14.1 per cent, to $7.58.

Its Puffin project, which was supposed to produce between 25,000 and 30,000 barrels of oil a day, is producing significantly less oil than expected.
 
Looks to be only temporary to me.

Well, the excuse seems to say it's temporary.


11.3% Lemmings!
 
The scary bit is the next line you didn't highlight, kennas.

"A review of production levels will take place following this, AED noted."
 
Yeah, but the reassuring bit Kennas didn't highlight either is the first sentence "production has been significantly held back" One assumes this means that the 25000bpd is still achievable??
 
jonojpsg said:
Yeah, but the reassuring bit Kennas didn't highlight either is the first sentence "production has been significantly held back" One assumes this means that the 25000bpd is still achievable??
Click to expand...
Yeah, I can only see a positive in that, and the review of production is just a throw away line.

Unless they're looking for an out if things are still going pear shaped.

I may be biased too, I hold NWE....
 
Yeah I sold 75% of my holdings at 9.80, then sold the rest today, mgt have not done the greatest job IMO of keeping market informed etc.

I would rather be on a stock that is rising and does not have production problems.
 
It was an interesting bounce off the bottom today. Does any else have an oversold feeling now that potentially plenty of stop losses have been triggered. I feel like trading the counter trend, not holding ATM.

Cheers


BT
 
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