ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Lucky_Country]

I definately dont think the NT play is dead far from it just feel that the zone they tested is not the pay dirt as they had trouble even drilling that far down.
We should know the full story soon enough and hopefully will rebound the sp IMHO

 

[maverick11]

They put in infrastructure and are planning another well in NT within the next 12 months. There is nothing to indicate that the testing program is necessarily going pear shaped as it would be highly unlikely for gas to flow when it is still choked with 68% of the frac fluid. They also indicated the hole was damaged before they began and the reasons for this could be numerous, right down to poor ground conditions. They also don’t indicate whether they are having trouble recovering the fluid or whether they are just behind schedule (yeah right, as if hehe) which is something to keep in mind. It’s just going to be an issue of timing on this one, and the waiting game is what adi holders do best. Besides, SL next month… I topped up again

 

[Lucky_Country]

By the wat wheres AgentM when you need him if anyone can cheer us up he can !
Im sure he will sort out the cryptic clues given in the statement and make us all feel good again

 

[tomcat]

Just a few spooked day traders from the looks of it. With over 100 million shares out there the big players are waiting for SL.

I also agree with Lucky_Country and Maverick...NT may not be dead and buried just yet.

 

[tomcat]

By the wat wheres AgentM when you need him if anyone can cheer us up he can !
Im sure he will sort out the cryptic clues given in the statement and make us all feel good again

He is too busy buying I reckon he will back with comments soon..............Seems the price is slowly heading back

 

[Agentm]

it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions about the commercial flow potential from this zone.


lets wait until they finish.. in no way can they say whether its commercial or not, but you can take a perspective here in this that there is an positive outcome still available, just as a negative outcome is possible..

there is definate formation damage, that has been said already, the perforating confirmed that, the frac has yet to be concluded.. and they indicate the other zones, which have condensate, are also considered.

not the worst announcement, as i see the worst being when they say its not commercial, and many questions need to be answered still..

 

[megla]

Yep there she sinks. Down 18% today.

If only it went further I could have picked up some more. I wanted it to go below 45, then I would have picked up a bundle, but alas.

Although I'm only going on gut feel for this one, I have enjoyed each piece of bad news, as I can acquire more and lower my dollar cost average. Then sit patiently and wait it to rise from the ashes...

 

[maverick11]

If only it went further I could have picked up some more. I wanted it to go below 45, then I would have picked up a bundle, but alas.

Although I'm only going on gut feel for this one, I have enjoyed each piece of bad news, as I can acquire more and lower my dollar cost average. Then sit patiently and wait it to rise from the ashes...

not the only one mate I also picked up some more this morning at the bottom. I feel the sp didn't really have NT factored into it anyways and it always seems to crash hard then recover quickly on news such as this.

 

[mick z]

If only it went further I could have picked up some more. I wanted it to go below 45, then I would have picked up a bundle, but alas.


megla, i don't understand your logic, obviously you think both n/t and s/l are going to be dusters, if it drops from the current sp of 60c to under 45c, well adi is in big trouble, why would you want to buy? what forward project are you looking at ? because your certainly not looking at n/t or s/l.

mick

 

[Sprinter79]

Why have so many people fallen in love with this stock???

Isn't that one of the main 'rules' of trading?

I liken this to building a 'ramp' and trying to jump off it with my bike, only to have a spectacular 'crash' and go off crying to mum heheheh

If only Adelphi could do this as well as they make ham :


mmmmmmmm ham *insert :homer: drool*

 

[Broadside]

Why have so many people fallen in love with this stock???

Isn't that one of the main 'rules' of trading?

I liken this to building a 'ramp' and trying to jump off it with my bike, only to have a spectacular 'crash' and go off crying to mum heheheh

If only Adelphi could do this as well as they make ham :


mmmmmmmm ham *insert :homer: drool*

A lot of people have high expectations for Sugarloaf, Sprinter which makes it easier to shrug off disappointment at NT. If Sugarloaf goes sour I am sure then you will see wailing and gnashing of teeth, but I don't think it will happen.

 

[Agentm]

i invested in this stock due to ADI taking on a high risk high reward approach to their projects, Magnolia, and Sl were in that catagory, and NT was in the lower risk area of all the projects.

Currently NT is a well not easy to understand, and the data you get from seismics is always going to differ from what you really have when you drill, porosity and permiability are contributors, as are many factors.


trying to understand this is not as easy as it seems.. talking to adi you get the impression the situation is unclear as to what is happening, when you have a overpressurised zone, and a potential blowout situation, and are forced to stop drilling and carefully case in, then after perforating.. nothing... then frac and only 38% of the fluids are coming back..??
so whats happening now does not exactly correlate to what happened on the drill.. so where did the pressure come from? and whats holding it back? when you drill your conditioning the hole to stop the pressure from escaping into the hole, then you have to later on reverse that and condition the hole to allow that pressure as much access as possible.



i dont get the feeling the jvp's have decided the fate of this well just yet, there was condensate in the upper wilcox, and there are other zones of interest.. and the frac program on NT aint over yet, but it is not behaving as one had expected so far..

i believe they said:

Adelphi Energy Limited advises that fracture stimulation operations over a total 16 foot perforated interval in the Lower Wilcox section of the Ilse 1 well (at a depth of approximately 16,780 feet)​

so only 16 feet has been fraced and in earlier reports after wireline logging they said:


Preliminary log interpretation indicates a number of potential zones of interest with interpreted hydrocarbon bearing sands totalling between approximately 10 and 50 feet in the Lower Wilcox section and other potential gas/condensate bearing sands further up the hole in the Upper Wilcox. A decision as to which zones will be tested will be made once log analysis is complete.


I tend to think they have about 50 feet of zones in the lower wilcox still to frac if they want to, and maybe 20 feet or so more in the uppper wilcox (or was it 70 feet in the upper on its own or 70 for both??)

from a practical perspective if the fluids dont come back immediately and ytou dont get the flow, then its time to start looking hard at the data and try and understand it, and they say it ainrt over yet, its not the case that the entire well is being plugged and abandonded just yet, its early days..


if there was no hope on this well the announcement would have said so, although its bleak it aint over in my view. lets see what the jvp's decide over the next few weeks..

 

[megla]

i don't understand your logic

Mick, that would be because I'm not using logic. I'm using gut instinct (and yes part of a trading plan).

How many times do we see a stock jump up for no logical reason? Every day eh! So logic for me is not with this stock, I'm going my the voices in my head.

And if it does go south, then the equity I have built up will stay there until it pops it's head back up. I refuse to sell any stock below what I paid for it period! That's part of of my trading plan. However I will not go running off crying, because this is certainly not my only stock.

I'm using my intuition so DYOR etc, but it wont match my gut

 

[chance fate]

here's a thought that some may not like... if you're in adi for sugarloaf why not sell and get into eka... yes it wont jump as much on success but you'll get almost twice as many shares..

 

[nioka]

here's a thought that some may not like... if you're in adi for sugarloaf why not sell and get into eka... yes it wont jump as much on success but you'll get almost twice as many shares..

AUT would be a better bet. But the change would have been better a little while ago. I've done OK back and forth.

 

[Agentm]

here's a thought that some may not like... if you're in adi for sugarloaf why not sell and get into eka... yes it wont jump as much on success but you'll get almost twice as many shares..

r u trying to sell your eka shares now chance?

i am in for two wells, and turns out its more like one and a puff of gas..

I have no real research on NT, but was getting the feeling of good things to come by the bullish remarks alex let out on the wireline log release, and the pipeline connection.. got well and truely blindsided there..

that leaves the mother of all wells over.. and i wont drop a single share until they have got full value there.. when you see the figures the plays near by get and you hear couchy say the porosity is better in our area, then its hard to let any share go..

i imagine the adi camp need to consider announcing another project, or advance yemen perhaps?? or the alliance?? it would seem foolish to allow just one well to be the only focus, there will be life after Sl and ADI needs to soldier on..

 

[chance fate]

...nope not me.. but someone eagerly wants to offload 50000... chasing the price down... still can't beleive it hit 30c today... i missed that... woke up late i'm affraid...(not that late! I live in perth)...

 

[chance fate]

... I haven't been following NT that much ... the mud loss during drilling is problematic... but as you said before they're still in clean up mode.. so surprising the announcement re. sub commercial came out now and not after further clean up... and adi is less risky than one-more-chance-eka ...

 

[maverick11]

i'm guessing it has an awful lot to do with the fault line running through the lower portion of the well. where did the frac fluid go?? i think i know... :

 

[Agentm]

i'm guessing it has an awful lot to do with the fault line running through the lower portion of the well. where did the frac fluid go?? i think i know... :

i think your probably close to the truth, they have no clue really, one minute it was overpressurised, next it wasnt.. i spoke to chris a bit today and i feel what your saying mav fits in with what he was trying to explain.. they are in a very tricky play, very thick and lots of movement from the fault, you have trouble knowing when your drilling exactly where you are in terms of the plays your targeting and the seismics etc,.... then you get spikes and potential blowouts, so you withdraw for the safety of the well,, you cant win them all, and this well may be looking ordinary right now, but it may come good??

its now a matter of the geologists doing their best guesses, and the economics of fracing further. and we will be told last..

Sl is not a fault type play, so i have no problem staying in on the secondaries.. in light of the eme announcements, i wouldnt miss it for anything!!

looking forward we have a lot more than 40 bcf at SL and its possible in a month no one will remember NT.. there are some big announcements to come i feel, a new well in block A, and some very interesting weeks of testing.. anyone figured out yet why they will be testing Sl for months??
i best leave that one alone for the time being