ADI - Adelphi Energy

[chance fate]

... just a bearish challenge for the thread given it tends to be very bullish at times (not a bad thing!) ... i haven't read anywhere in any of ADI's presentations that it intends to drill 16 wells.... only 2 more shallow wells in 2007(8?)... further they're running with a P50 reserves estimate of 100Bcf on SL (which is good - and possibly conservative given ADI acreage acquisition activity)... but is still subject to test... reserves can't be booked until there is physical evidence to do so - ADI/JV would only have wireline logs at this stage... and maybe some pressure data... that's not enough.. not saying that any of the bullish stuff is not possible... but it's just that at this stage - a possibility -and i don't believe that the SP should contain alot of value for that until further info. comes into the market... good luck to adi holders on NT next week - hope the frac is successful...

 

[chance fate]

....just wanted to point out that some of the gains by the oil juniors (and majors) over the last few months has been due to the shift in oil price from low 50's to mid 60's.... be careful .. whilst the global supply demand equation is really tight... it could fall back again.... that'd be the right time to buy IMO...

 

[chops_a_must]

Chops a Must equates to Toss a Lot.
Your typical Dockers supporter really......bitter and twisted that gets off on slagging others.
It's been dragging awhile now ADI holders, but worth riding.

Good to see we can have a really friendly and intelligent discussion about the pros and cons of this stock.

******************

It seems like that chops is an alias of that other idiot on ADVFN namely Robin of no advice?

An idiot wouldn't have seen his profit cut in half, that's for sure.

Hi All,

My first post here. I am relatively new to the world of trading despite having worked in the O & G sector for some years. I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their insight, and that I personally have faith in ADI. Try holding GDN...

At work we are tipping Arrow Energy and LNG in Gladstone, based on industry chatter. I also got in on ESG which has been nice and steady...if you like weird ideas though...you will love Linc Energy! LNC...seems to be heading in the right direction...

How dare you post about clearly trending stocks that chops has been on for ages!!

And Agentm, we can talk about the potential blah blah until the cows come home. 1tcf this, 1 tcf that. ESG has what, 1.5tcf gas in place with highly encouraging preliminary results and huge contracts already in place. ADI may have the same, minus whatever the other companies cut. But that's meaningless. What does tell you a lot is the trend, and insider buying. All that the volume has done for ADI is to bring the stock down since March. With no serious boys coming to play, to help out.

But... I suppose all the "keep the faith on SL or dust cake", whatever the well is called, mass private messages will be arriving in the inboxes of the faithful towards the end of the week. Good luck, and if it doesn't fail with stale bulls at 80c, it'll be interesting. I wouldn't hold my breath though.

 

[Agentm]

... just a bearish challenge for the thread given it tends to be very bullish at times (not a bad thing!) ... i haven't read anywhere in any of ADI's presentations that it intends to drill 16 wells.... only 2 more shallow wells in 2007(8?)... further they're running with a P50 reserves estimate of 100Bcf on SL (which is good - and possibly conservative given ADI acreage acquisition activity)... but is still subject to test... reserves can't be booked until there is physical evidence to do so - ADI/JV would only have wireline logs at this stage... and maybe some pressure data... that's not enough.. not saying that any of the bullish stuff is not possible... but it's just that at this stage - a possibility -and i don't believe that the SP should contain alot of value for that until further info. comes into the market... good luck to adi holders on NT next week - hope the frac is successful...

ADi has been the least clear on the 16 wells, and its beyond doubt the EME announcement has done little to assist the JVP's in their persuits in the AMI. its a jvp partner that has said the 16 wells could be on both block A and block B. two of the jvp's have chosen to answer that, ADi has not entirely answered that.

ADI has as you say, announced 2 shallow wells which, none of the JVP's have followed up with that.

I agree only the testing will bring them the complete data that fill the picture.

I ask you chance of fate, why can ADI get a workover rig and frac crew on site at NT in a matter of weeks and it takes 6 months for one to be at sugarloaf..

if you tell me EME is participating in a 16 well program and and is ill advised..

what insider trading do they have then? how can EME know what is about to happen and the JVP's with EME does not??

Obviously the likes of chops and you believe that EME has no clue what its doing committing to a 16 well program and the JVP's aare sitting on a dry well..

so be it,, invest accordingly, i hope you both sell before the news gets out, i have bought and will stay until they at least put down 16 wells.. we all have our our own choices..

everyone has their own strategy on shares, i buy and risk, you sell and buy somewhere else. i dont care what you invest in or do.. i simply comment on adi as i have an interest in it like others do around here.. if abuse is needed and required so be it, i have no need to answer it any more, i am beyond that.. i have bought post magolia, pre magnolia pre sl primary and post sl primary.. i will continue to buy and enjoy the success of investing in a company with exceptional management and great planning for the future, i look forward to indonesia, and the new wells at Nt and other ventures in the gulf.. and i look particularily forward to africa and the alliance.

SL and NT are only the start up for ADI, and i dont particularily care if others dont follow that understanding, invest in whatever you like, but dont get personal, you only make a fool of yourselves!!

 

[fflintoff]

"I ask you chance of fate, why can ADI get a workover rig and frac crew on site at NT in a matter of weeks and it takes 6 months for one to be at sugarloaf.."

######################

agentm,
Are they stalling until Jul so that they can assess the results of the next well in Block A together with the SL 1 well testing program?
TCEI are the Operator for SL & a partner in the Block A program with the major.

 

[chance fate]

... agentM.. personally with my bull hat on.. i really like the idea that the JV's are buying acreage...that's why i'm still holding EKA with a paper loss (DYOR)... but on the same token I'm not prepared to concede the value that this would imply... much as I'd like it.... on the bearish side... it's not beyond the realms of possibility they could end up with some problems with SL and the acquisition would have been fruitless.... I'm holding and patient, just like with GDN, until the test results come out... I'm prepared to take the risk.... and that's because I've got a strong preference not to have to go back to the 9-5 grind.... so I realise I'm taking a very risky road and lucky that personal finances are covered for a few months...which some wouldn't care for... and hoping at least one of them comes good... but have sent my CV out as a contingency anyhow!!!

 

[chance fate]

...oh and by the way if one of them does come off I'm off to Nexus asap and Karoon before the end of the year... they've got some very interesting prospects in the Browse Basin as long as the LNG market delivers....

 

[Broadside]

Good to see we can have a really friendly and intelligent discussion about the pros and cons of this stock.

An idiot wouldn't have seen his profit cut in half, that's for sure.

How dare you post about clearly trending stocks that chops has been on for ages!!

And Agentm, we can talk about the potential blah blah until the cows come home. 1tcf this, 1 tcf that. ESG has what, 1.5tcf gas in place with highly encouraging preliminary results and huge contracts already in place. ADI may have the same, minus whatever the other companies cut. But that's meaningless. What does tell you a lot is the trend, and insider buying. All that the volume has done for ADI is to bring the stock down since March. With no serious boys coming to play, to help out.

But... I suppose all the "keep the faith on SL or dust cake", whatever the well is called, mass private messages will be arriving in the inboxes of the faithful towards the end of the week. Good luck, and if it doesn't fail with stale bulls at 80c, it'll be interesting. I wouldn't hold my breath though.

how is that chip on your shoulder chops? you'd best hope that Sugarloaf is a duster or it could be unbearable. Some advice for you, don't get emotional about stocks. ADI obviously didn't work out for you, better luck next time.

 

[chops_a_must]

how is that chip on your shoulder chops? you'd best hope that Sugarloaf is a duster or it could be unbearable. Some advice for you, don't get emotional about stocks. ADI obviously didn't work out for you, better luck next time.

It's fine.

I was just responding tactfully to abuse.

I couldn't care less if SL is a winner or not. I've made an absolute crap load of money on energy/ oil stocks. AED, AOE, ESG, NWE, MEL... I could go on and on here. All in the time ADI has halved.

I got out at breakeven for what it's worth, so I really don't care. I just make a point of challenging spruikers and rampers (particularly like today when a blatant untruth is told), no matter what I hold or what I don't. You can check the AED and INL threads for evidence of this.

Cheers,
Chops.

P.S. there are so many undervalued no brainers in this market, in production/ close to, that there is simply no need to gamble. Of course that is if you have the awareness to realise.

 

[Broadside]

I just make a point of challenging spruikers and rampers (particularly like today when a blatant untruth is told), no matter what I hold or what I don't.

Ah yes, Agent M posted "All this has caused little excitement, and we see barely a trade on the stock now a days..

i see good buying opportunities at these prices..."

what a blatant untruth! an observation followed by an opinion! for shame Agent M.

Glad you're making money in the market, a few of us are, even us dimwitted ADI holders! But after I have sold a stock, even if it doesn't work out for me, I let it go. That's why I observe that you have a chip on your shoulder, and why you will be desperately hoping Sugarloaf and NT are dusters.

I can't be bothered arguing with you any more. Do what you like, just try and be civil. Ciao.

 

[Agentm]

And Agentm, we can talk about the potential blah blah until the cows come home. 1tcf this, 1 tcf that. ESG has what, 1.5tcf gas in place with highly encouraging preliminary results and huge contracts already in place. ADI may have the same, minus whatever the other companies cut. But that's meaningless. What does tell you a lot is the trend, and insider buying. All that the volume has done for ADI is to bring the stock down since March. With no serious boys coming to play, to help out.

But... I suppose all the "keep the faith on SL or dust cake", whatever the well is called, mass private messages will be arriving in the inboxes of the faithful towards the end of the week. Good luck, and if it doesn't fail with stale bulls at 80c, it'll be interesting. I wouldn't hold my breath though.


No need to concern yourself chops, i have been accumulating ADI for years now, and not about to stop. thanks for the kind thoughts, I will continue to post here and discuss. really good to see your making a lot of gains on other stocks too, i hope it continues.. great to hear..

 

[megla]

WOW!!

You'd think with all the hot air and energy being generated here that it would attract more attention in the outside world.

Think rational guys, it's only money, and you can't take it with you.

 

[Agentm]

WOW!!

You'd think with all the hot air and energy being generated here that it would attract more attention in the outside world.

Think rational guys, it's only money, and you can't take it with you.

you crack me up on every post..

i was wondering how difficult it is to have a JVP partner proclaim they are in another JVP on the same play and investing in 16 wells across both plays, so on those wells alone $80 mill is being invested. It caused some constination with AUT and EKA with denials of knowlege of the major oil company, and saying more will be revealed when testing is completed.

what really shakes the boat is that EME claims they are on block A and B, then we have ADI not supporting that. But stating the number of wells will be revealed only afetr testing SL..

I still maintain the EME move to run with TCE in the other block on the same play on the next well, which makes it the third well to go if you count the one that they refer to as already producing, and with 15 more at least planned until testing is completed, it seems a touch excessive for a 150bcf play?

ADI and all the JVP's have indicated reserves will be adjusted once testing is completed, using data from 3 wells will certainly fill the picture for them..

 

[Agentm]

"I ask you chance of fate, why can ADI get a workover rig and frac crew on site at NT in a matter of weeks and it takes 6 months for one to be at sugarloaf.."

######################

agentm,
Are they stalling until Jul so that they can assess the results of the next well in Block A together with the SL 1 well testing program?
TCEI are the Operator for SL & a partner in the Block A program with the major.

hey flintoff..

if the next well about to go is drilled in the next week, then 6 weeks of drilling a horizontal well will mean july is about spot on for the testing there, so having two wells tested on the same play simaltaneously will make for some interesting data and give the combined JVP's great insights into how many wells, what type, where and when...

they are certainly making it very clear there is no rush, and they will do it thier way and at their pace, for an investor its frustrating to see 6 months delays on testing, but i am convinced the fact that EME believes it warrants investing in 80 mill of wells is enough to convince me they are not chasing 170 bcf.. I have invested accordingly..

hey we all wanted the hosston sands to flow, and it did, but not at commercial rates, and the porosity figures eme let out are very promising, they absolutely have not written off the sands according to those who attended the EME agm and listened to frank brophys speech..

if the sands are being looked at, i would say they are not going to be drilled until after the seconday austin chalks are commenced and productive.

all IMHO and DYOR

 

[sandlion]

Wow...my first post and I got flamed, albeit by the most unpopular person on this thread..! I don't even feel unique...in fact I feel kind of dirty

Anyway, ADI will go well. That NT is a winner, trust the people who know the people who work on the rigs....it's true...you don't get a workover rig onsite at the drop of a hat.

 

[Agentm]

hey sandlion its feels great to get a pasting every now and again..



i learned the other day that a workover rig is in the majority of cases is sourced only in the state you drill, its unusual for a cross border frac crew and rig to be used, so each state has hundreds of rigs and crews and usually companies can tender for the job.. sometimes the ones you select may not be available immediately.. i believe its the case here.

 

[The Bookeeper]

Fortune favours the brave

Have been in this stock for a while.
Reason why i am involved in this stock is due to the 'potential' i see in it.

Potential i see:

NT well being commercial. This is based on the fact that those involved went ahead and built a pipeline to it before fraccing. Seems weird to expend money on a pipeline if they are not fully confident that it is commercial. If not, board will have a lot to answer for.

SL has upside.
The SL well is an interesting prospect. The significant gas showings received in this well in the shallows is an exciting prospect. If it comes through, its the second commecial well for ADI. If SL 1 doesnt end up being commercial, the fact they had significant gas showings hopefully means somewhere else in the formation that they can tap into a commercial well. All the mapping in the world can still not give a 100% result, hence why we have 'dusters'. SL can be seen as a descovery well to assist in further mapping and drilling in the area.

Regarding the workover rig, and how quickly one went to NT compared to SL. NT well was close to existing infrastructure. The sooner online, the parties involved can start receiving a cash flow from operations. The delay has also allowed further time for the JVP's to purchase more acerage rights near the SL target area.

I still believe ADI is a spec stock. It has a few wells planned for drilling in the near future and an exciting alliance that has been formed to check out prosepects in africa etc.

ADI will not suit all investors. I am invested in ADI as part of my overall investment plan, and it is based on my risk profile.

All i can say is for people to invest within their risk profile.

Best of luck for all on the forums here. Be it with ADi or another stock.

 

[fflintoff]

you crack me up on every post..

i was wondering how difficult it is to have a JVP partner proclaim they are in another JVP on the same play and investing in 16 wells across both plays, so on those wells alone $80 mill is being invested. It caused some constination with AUT and EKA with denials of knowlege of the major oil company, and saying more will be revealed when testing is completed.

what really shakes the boat is that EME claims they are on block A and B, then we have ADI not supporting that. But stating the number of wells will be revealed only afetr testing SL..

I still maintain the EME move to run with TCE in the other block on the same play on the next well, which makes it the third well to go if you count the one that they refer to as already producing, and with 15 more at least planned until testing is completed, it seems a touch excessive for a 150bcf play?

ADI and all the JVP's have indicated reserves will be adjusted once testing is completed, using data from 3 wells will certainly fill the picture for them..

Agentm,
The deep sands are still in the mix in the medium term according to both EME & AUT who are snapping up deals & land at Block A & Longhorn and Ipanema resp. EME have planned 16 wells minimum so far, so plenty of opportunities there. Could be considerably more if they drill separate wells for each production zone.
EME mentioned 9% porosity in their annuals which is surely too tempting not to have another pop at some point down the line?
These are the relevant extracts:-

“Significant gas shows reappeared at 18,190' following the interception of the primary objective, the Hosston sandstones at 17,950'. These gas shows continued intermittently throughout the sequence until the total depth (T.D.) of 20,896' was reached on the 28th November 2006. The logs run at TD show a net pay of between 90 - 140' over an interval 1,700' (19,700' - 18,000') using a 6% porosity cut-off. The most prospective sand was 17' thick showing a calculated porosity of 9%.”

“There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow, despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could also have played a role in impeding gas flow”

 

[Agentm]

Agentm,
The deep sands are still in the mix in the medium term according to both EME & AUT who are snapping up deals & land at Block A & Longhorn and Ipanema resp. EME have planned 16 wells minimum so far, so plenty of opportunities there. Could be considerably more if they drill separate wells for each production zone.
EME mentioned 9% porosity in their annuals which is surely too tempting not to have another pop at some point down the line?
These are the relevant extracts:-

“Significant gas shows reappeared at 18,190' following the interception of the primary objective, the Hosston sandstones at 17,950'. These gas shows continued intermittently throughout the sequence until the total depth (T.D.) of 20,896' was reached on the 28th November 2006. The logs run at TD show a net pay of between 90 - 140' over an interval 1,700' (19,700' - 18,000') using a 6% porosity cut-off. The most prospective sand was 17' thick showing a calculated porosity of 9%.”

“There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow, despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could also have played a role in impeding gas flow”

I totally understand and agree with what your saying, there is little doubt the sands are not being written off, with all depths being clearly stated as the prime directive on acerage.. whether the sands come to life is speculation, but the porosity is obviously too tempting to leave out..

bookeeper has posted one of the best posts i have seen for a while, there is considerable risk in all O&G explorers, and once you are able to remove emotion and think with reason, and research well, there are opportunities in many companies in the sector, and i love hearing people making a killing on them..

 

[tomcat]

Guys,

With the frac crew starting tomorow does anyone know how long they would estimate this process to take. Are we talking days to flow results?