ADI - Adelphi Energy

I doubt that testing has started. It was only a week ago I think that the aus jv's came out with their explanation of where they stand after EME came out with the BLOCKa/BLOCKB announcement. In that release they stated that testing is likely to commence in July.
Obviously would be nice to have it started now, means that we don't have to wait another 2 months to see some serious action with the share price. Until the aus jv's come out with another update changing their testing timetable I won't be getting my hopes up in anticipation of flow results in the next 2 weeks.
Just trying to be a realist.

i was curious about frank Brophy at EME, he is the Technical Director of EME and has a fromidable record of 40 years under his belt as a geologist, and has headed up some fine oil companies. the recent comments reported by him has aroused my curiosity on what he is saying, its very interesting, and may be the reason why the AMI is buying acerage accross all depths..

he signed off on the 1st of may 2007 in the Annual reports and accounts in this fashion with his opinion on sugarloaf primary..

I note that an investor listened and discussed Sl and the sands with him the other day at the AGM.. but he isnt putting the SL primary to rest, and indicates mud weight may have contributed to no flow on the upper primary perforating and frac tests..

The well was cemented up to 18,900', and perforations were then made over 7 higher intervals between 18,199' - 18,689' where significant gas peaks had been encountered during drilling. These fine-grained sandstone intervals were then subjected to a fraccing procedure. On 12th March it was announced that the fraccing had achieved only minor gas recovery at a rate too small to measure.
There are several reasons which can explain the absence of significant gas flow, despite the shows during drilling. The most likely explanation is the lack of sufficient permeability due to the fine-grained nature of the sandstones. The deleterious effects of using heavy mud weight (15.6 lbs/gal) by necessity could also have played a role in impeding gas flow.

I dont have the expertise and geologist background he does, but i feel they are not convinced the hosston sands are dead and buried..

i really dont get why they have to continue to mention the sands in the fashion they are, it may indicate there is consideration being given to the play again somewhere..

all IMHO and DYOR

Agentm,
I think that AUT share Frank ´s opinion on the deeper sands:-

“Analysis of the results of the Hosston test have led to the conclusion that whilst still representing an exploration play with potential, in the medium term at least this deep play will not be allocated additional resources ahead of other assets within the portfolio.”

http://www.auroraoag.com.au/docs/2007/AUT20070430.pdf

thats spot on fflintoff

i think in terms of logic here,

if they have spent over 10 mill on a well that may be getting minor flow due to damage and at the same time also have a pressing issue on the testing of the secondaries to consider. They may well have decided to just perforate and frac, and then flow test, and with mud weights like that its very possioble the flow was not coming or the formation damaged due to that alone.. having porosity as high as they did is absolutely astounding, no wonder they were so keen on them.

So if the flow didnt come, they had 2 choices, continue with high cost fracing processes and proceedures, and maybe get a weak flow, and maybe have to induce flow in all sorts of expensive ways, this would mean no further testing on the secondaries and all jvp's would suffer with a weak well and expensive cost overruns, and nothing to declare on the secondaries. (i am certain this was a consideration btw...)

or

call it quits, plug, pullup the pipe and then concentrate on the secondaries. the testing of the zones there is critical to how many and where they put the horizontally drilled wells next to go.. and develop them to their full potential in the near term is far more practical to all jvp's, it delivers income, and allows plenty of planning and further value to the jvp's by taking another shot at the primary with cash to burn and better data and understandings with seismics that no doubt are undertaken.
it goes without saying the secondaries are being seriously treated as major play, and 1tcf is not at all outside the realm of possibilty given the size and porosity they have in the chalks..


The sands have possibly still got something to offer, and if two of the JVP's are still announceing them as plausable, it follows the current mode of acerage being leased across all depths..

dont want to dwell on this too much, but imagine 1 -2 tcf in the sands and multi tcf and condensate in the secondaries..

goosebump territory..


so expanding that out a bit further, i am guessing the BLOCK A, BLOCK B situation is not easy to follow, as i believe they are more or less relating to depth rather than general acerage also.. so perhaps its a mix of chalks, and maybe edwards and hosston sands over perhaps 80 - 140+ square kilometers???

one thing is certain, no one is releasing any detail that makes it easy to understand. and for that reason alone it indicates there is plenty of reason to believe there is much there that is being kept off the record and away from the public view for the best interests of all the jvp's..

anyone been thinking this way also???

i cant wait for the jvp's to be given the green light to announce on this,, when it happens i can only see sreious bluesky here..

all IMHO and DYOR..
,

yogi-in-oz said:

Hi folks,

ADI ..... since the March 2007 equinox, we have seen ADI lift
off its lows, then move sideways, since the highs at the
end of March 2007.

Resistance over the past few days have put a ceiling on ADI's
move and our time cycle analysis indicates that, this month
(May 07) is likely to be mostly negative:

May 2007

11052007 ..... negative news expected here.

15052007 ..... another difficult cycle expected, at this time.

21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ...

29051007 ..... positive news expected here

=====

June 2007

05062007 ..... minor cycle ... finance-related ???

21-24062007 ..... positive light on ADI ... as two significant
and positive cycles come into play ...

=====

July 2007

13-16072007 ..... a significant and positive cycle here ... finance
... note the price on this day.

23072007 ..... minor cycle here

=====

August 2007

03-07082007 ..... minor news early in this period, with a negative
reaction, as another negative time cycle,
comes out to play.


10-13082007 ..... finances ???
... is price the same as 13-16072007 ??

17-20082007 ..... significant and positive news expected here

22-23082007 ..... positive spotlight on ADI

=====

September 2007

27082007-to-03092007 ... a VERY NEGATIVE cycle could trigger
a big downmove, here ...
05092007 ... minor news ???

21-24092007 ... minor

27092007 ... 2 positive cycles should bring some news,
triggering an aggressive rally. Note price.

=====

October 2007

05-08102007 ... significant and positive ... finance-related ???

... is price the same as 13-16072007 and/or 10-13082007 ... ???

23102007 ... minor and positive light on ADI

24102007 ... minor news??? ... same price as 27092007 ???

More later.

happy days

paul



=====

Click to expand...

Hi folks,

ADI ..... trading pretty much according to plan, so far .....

..... just need some positive news on 29052007, to lift it off
support again ..... but, would not be surprsed to see another
test of the lows before that, on Monday (???)

happy days

paul



=====

hey ole yogi or god or paul or who ever you are..

any chance with the blue moon coming along in june that you could put some of the good new all together in a neat package and bundle it into next week..

i also am quite prepared to convert to any religion or religious sect if it will improve the timings.

if you can conjure some real good gas flows at NT i would also be greatful

your disbelieving convert.

AM.

Guys, what is the expected timing for NT news to be released?

I'm guessing at well over another week, but expert opinion or more informed guess would be appreciated.

jjf

Agentm, from the ARQ thread you said.....

if you pull up the shorters list on the asx you can see how much arq is being shorted

can you enlighten me how this is done, thanks

in answer to your two questions..

6th June is firm date for NT frac test..


and shorters..

http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt

we have a a week and a half before they do anything on NT... and a great envelope of time to get great value on the buy side..

May 2007

11052007 ..... negative news expected here.

15052007 ..... another difficult cycle expected, at this time.

21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ...

29051007 ..... positive news expected here

=====

June 2007

05062007 ..... minor cycle ... finance-related ???

21-24062007 ..... positive light on ADI ... as two significant
and positive cycles come into play ...

=====



so yogi.. the 29th came and went... no positive news happened???

For me the next positive news that will have upside to the sp is the NT well test results. and they wont be around for a week at least.

The jvp's have given themselves plenty of time in delaying the SL testing and securing acerage, and now we will see other wells on the play spud. I am curious how much information will be released on the next well to go, and how much it will reflect on the JVP's sp in light of 16 wells being already considered on a play that is producing gas and oil. and the play not being announced as a discovery yet over $80 mill being thrown at it!!

despite adi making a very upbeat and bullish remark in their last announcement on SL, the market has not responded to it in any fashion. I imagine if GDN announced 16 wells their sp would go bluesky, but it seems the idea of a major oil comapny, a major play, and the possibly multi tcf has not attracted any notice and remains under the radar. is the market in total disbelief of this perhaps?

the first 16 wells costing $80 mill being planned for block A and B are not being discussed by any of the holders i see, nor the announcement by ADI that the flow test will set in place the following :




The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test.

Agentm said:

i see good buying opportunities at these prices...

Click to expand...

Really? It's funny that no-one else has, since its fall from 80c again. And obviously the big fat donut in the volume column shows that other people think there are great opportunities at these prices, doesn't it?

chops_a_must said:

Really? It's funny that no-one else has, since its fall from 80c again. And obviously the big fat donut in the volume column shows that other people think there are great opportunities at these prices, doesn't it?

Click to expand...

chops, let's see who is right and who is wrong in a few weeks when they flow test the secondaries at Sugarloaf, obviously some see opportunity at these levels and you don't. That is fine...but the sniping really doesn't do anything for the thread. Time will tell. If you're right I am sure you will be back here to remind us. Until then, take care :

Broadside said:

chops, let's see who is right and who is wrong in a few weeks when they flow test the secondaries at Sugarloaf, obviously some see opportunity at these levels and you don't. That is fine...but the sniping really doesn't do anything for the thread. Time will tell. If you're right I am sure you will be back here to remind us. Until then, take care :

Click to expand...

The point is, none see opportunity at this level.

People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.

So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.

WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.

chops_a_must said:

The point is, none see opportunity at this level.

People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniours over the last few months.

So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.

WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.

Click to expand...

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to be honest chops yours could be right at this stage, the flows test of NT will be the be all or end all of the ADI SP in the short term.... SL could be a while to its final

NO one will know until flow test results are final, I know one thing ADI is not being sold down either like many companies today .... whats that mean?????

chops, i am still waiting for your figures and how you did your calculations last time you posted.. are you going to back up your figures with calculations? or just post here and there and not back things up with how you got to those conclusions..?


"People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months. "

Its a free market chops, No one disagrees with you there, you can say that about any stock, being insulting and calling it a dog and not refer to another that is performing better.. ADI has gone from .46 to .70 in the past 60 days, sure there may be some O& G explorers performing better than 45% gain, but its going alright.

good luck to you and your derogitory remarks...




We are extremely aware of your negative view on ADI and its management, i assure you no one has missed that point from you,

chops_a_must said:

The point is, none see opportunity at this level.

People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.

So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.

WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.

Click to expand...

Hindsight, what a wonderful thing...there is always a stock that outperforms yours at any given time. And you're presuming that ADI holders don't own any other stocks? You buy stocks that you believe will perform best for your investment timeframe. For me, ADI fits that criterion and I don't regret the fact that exposure to Sugarloaf makes up a good percentage of my portfolio. I will make the judgement as to whether I made the right decision when the results are in.

For you obviously ADI doesn't pass the test, and you can't see any merit in the news already released by ADI and the other joint venture partners because they haven't quite joined the dots for you. You see no significance in the news from EME a couple of weeks ago. You see no reasons behind all the JVP's being conservative and discrete in their announcements. That's fine, you can see it as a dog. We will know who is right soon enough.

chops_a_must said:

The point is, none see opportunity at this level.

People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.

So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.

WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.

Click to expand...

Chops a Must equates to Toss a Lot.
Your typical Dockers supporter really......bitter and twisted that gets off on slagging others.
It's been dragging awhile now ADI holders, but worth riding.

well it seems its the usual silence... still waiting for the replies on the previous figures and i guess 40% or so increase in the past two months is considered a dog.. i cant agree with that..

I think its beyond doubt the sp will take off next week, i posted that before, and why chops is asking that is beyond me,, it is well known the NT well is being fraced next week.. the first sp gain will run with the NT news, then upwards from there as news breaks of others wells spuding on the play and then early july again once the Sl testing commences..

O & G explorers are interesting, until you can substantiate a find you get no value it seems, and thats where i feel the high risk high reward aspect comes into play.. some demonstrate no patience and make unsubstantiated remarks about the management..

i feel the share holds exceptional upside in the near term, not because they have not substantiated their reserves and i think its going to happen, i look at whats happening in and around the Sl play, and i cant see any activity there indicative of a dry well.. i certainly have accumulated enough and done enough research to allow me to accumulate the holding i have, and i like anyone to put their view in a balanced way, i just dont get why you have to have a crack at company without substantiating it with some balanced reasoning..

each to their own,,

chops_a_must said:

The point is, none see opportunity at this level.

People would have been far far better off avoiding this stock and getting involved in some of the fantastic gains had by oil juniors over the last few months.

So many delays, no delivery, little explanation. Management hardly have any reliability or regard to shareholders in my view.

WHEN will this stock deliver? Just seems like a dog to me.

Click to expand...

******************

It seems like that chops is an alias of that other idiot on ADVFN namely Robin of no advice?

Hi All,

My first post here. I am relatively new to the world of trading despite having worked in the O & G sector for some years. I just wanted to say thanks to everyone for their insight, and that I personally have faith in ADI. Try holding GDN...

At work we are tipping Arrow Energy and LNG in Gladstone, based on industry chatter. I also got in on ESG which has been nice and steady...if you like weird ideas though...you will love Linc Energy! LNC...seems to be heading in the right direction...