ADI - Adelphi Energy

[mick z]

agentm,

i couldnt have said it better myself mr m.

thats why i keep saying re- read the announcements do your home work, do the maths.

these shares are going to look very cheap in 3 mths.
look whats coming up over the next 6mths YEMEN, AC/P32 more wells at n/t, s/l you cant ask for much more...gezzzz.

mick.

 

[chops_a_must]

is it fair to say there is fair value to the adi share on todays prices?

No.

Because you have to divide the total reserves etc by the percentage of what ADI has on it before you apply it to a potential price of the share.

And given ADI has a 20% interest in SL. It looks like the lower range they have said is actually worse than the previous worst case scenario...

Pretty elementary really.

 

[Broadside]

No.

Because you have to divide the total reserves etc by the percentage of what ADI has on it before you apply it to a potential price of the share.

And given ADI has a 20% interest in SL. It looks like the lower range they have said is actually worse than the previous worst case scenario...

Pretty elementary really.

do you not think the Hartley's analyst adjusted for ADI's economic interest when they did the calculation?!

edit: http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/news/documents/Hartleys Research Report - Dec 2006.pdf

here is the report

 

[chops_a_must]

do you not think the Hartley's analyst adjusted for ADI's economic interest when they did the calculation?!

Yes.

But AgentM sure as hell hasn't from what I am reading there. 170bcf /20% = 34bcf. So on an upside, that would be 62.5c to the share price. $1.50-2.50 is absolute nonsense on these figures.

Ramp.

 

[mick z]

chops

Yes.

But AgentM sure as hell hasn't from what I am reading there. 170bcf /20% = 34bcf. So on an upside, that would be 62.5c to the share price. $1.50-2.50 is absolute nonsense on these figures.

Ramp.


chops can you show me how you got to that figure, now dont go off hartleys numbers, i want to know how you got it (62.5c)

mick

 

[daeff]

Chops a must have failed maths...

I can easily get to the values from agantm even using spot gas at 6USD/mcf.. it is currently 7.8

Can you ignore people on this site?

 

[ironchef]

Agentm has been beating his drums about these stocks since the year dot. What I'm curious to know is if he's so certain about the price tripling in three months, has he sold his house, car, kids and cat to buy more shares?

If not, why not?

I'm a holder btw.

 

[surfingman]

Agentm has been beating his drums about these stocks since the year dot. What I'm curious to know is if he's so certain about the price tripling in three months, has he sold his house, car, kids and cat to buy more shares?

If not, why not?

I'm a holder btw.

Who said he hasn't???

Nothing is Guaranteed.... Agent M believes in ADI, be the Judge of it all when the results are released, he may be right or wrong until then its all just speculation with a little backing from what we can research of the internet.

I guess a large number of ASFers hold

 

[nioka]

yesterday after announcing brilliant news on NT and on SL the sp was hammered

With the worst case senario on NT added to what they are prepared to say about SL, we are in the $3 area.. Not including cash or further prospects..

The big question is when? Waiting costs money. The ADI shares I sold bought AGM shares which have increased in value by over 120% in less than 6months while I have watched the ADI drop. At my age I am not interested in long term. If new wells are necessary to get value from the field and they are as slow as the rate we have seen so far I may not live long enough to get much benefit.
I like the news but I hate the delays.

 

[Agentm]

I used hartleys report as a guide, and Strachan is similar..

in answer to your question deaff ... no, usually the people around here are fairly polite..

if your wrong on something you generally get a polite,, hey mate maybe its worked out this way, or you pm them and getthem to quickly correct a post.. but some around here dont have to qualify anything with their own calculations if they dont feel like it, just call it a ramp and dont support it with anything.. each to their own i guess..

If you use Hartleys or Strachan Corporate you get the same figures, i am allowing for 2mmbl which is all at the very low end of things.

I speculate still that 500bcf+ has to be a consideration based on the size of the field, when you research the fields and the players its absolutely amazing..​

i still feel NT is going to be an extremely crutial well, to get revenue into ADI when a well development program is on the cards is an absolute bonus. NT is not testing all zones in this well, they are obviously confident enough the lower wilcox, even if not fully drilled, is going to give more than sufficient flow in the near term.. i am very bullish on NT just as AZZ was by calling it a discovery a few weeks back..​

 

[Agentm]

Agentm has been beating his drums about these stocks since the year dot. What I'm curious to know is if he's so certain about the price tripling in three months, has he sold his house, car, kids and cat to buy more shares?

If not, why not?

I'm a holder btw.

hey ironchef..

ADI is an oil and gas explorer, with it very likely going to be a producer in the near term with NT.. I invested in both NT and SL and have increased my holding, also again in the past days. I invested for one of the two to be a success. By the way the JVP's on Sl are announcing 16 wells and one it going ahead without seeing the Sl results, and AZZ announcing NT as a discovery, i am happy to be a holder..

as always, DYOR and all IMHO


Its high risk high reward..

i invest according to my research, my decisions and my own risk reward profile.

NB.. re the three month thing... i didnt say three months...

great to see your a happy holder and best of luck!!

 

[itchy]

let this ship sink boys.....................cant hold on for ever.
opp cost of your $$$ says its better somewhere else

 

[Agentm]

let this ship sink boys.....................cant hold on for ever.
opp cost of your $$$ says its better somewhere else

best of luck.. plenty of action on the market, i agree the need for patience is required on O&G explorers..

just curious... what were you holding for?

 

[Broadside]

let this ship sink boys.....................cant hold on for ever.
opp cost of your $$$ says its better somewhere else

my timing isn't perfect I would rather be in than out when the run happens...and I don't know when that will be. Sure there is opportunity cost, so it's good to have some other irons in the fire, if you are absolutely confident this will languish and can ride the next flyer good luck to you itchy.

 

[Agentm]

hey broadside,,

i see the pipeline is just about connected to NT, so they would have had to negotiate the lease with the landowners for that.

No frac is needed at NT, they are just perforating and letting it flow as is.. They have a back up plan to frac if needed..

I am pretty impressed with the NT well, they couldnt drill any further becuase of the pressure problems, there are three zones they have shows on, and the Lower Wilcox has been called a discovery by AZZ.. i think if your planning to pipe in the gas immediately into the pipeline your operating with supeme confidence.. i feel the next few reports from NT may be quite interesting.

 

[Agentm]

how does the 12% jump in the closing rate??

somethings starting to happen in the world of ADI..

I aint complaining but its pretty unusual, we have had some amazing trades this week..

 

[wallave]

a nice $75,000 purchase on the close. Good bit of confidence. I'd like volume to pick up a little but definately heading in the right direction.

 

[Agentm]

In terms of excitement ADI has not achieved any of late, all operations are still under the news blackout, and not just for SL, its also important to note that although the workver rig is operating on site, little news is being spread their either. I think that as each announcement comes through in the next days there will be some considerble upside to each and every one of them.

Looking forward to EME's agm, plenty of folk i know will attend and look forward to their feedback on any SL detail...

In spite of ADI upgrading their estimates on the secondaries, i am convinced the revised 100 - 170bcf pre drill upside does not match the intense work the jvp's are completing behind the scene.

Now couch oil who is a partner in this is talking 2tcf.. I see others also convinced its multi tcf, and i am a firm believer that 500 bcf wouldnt even warrant the amount of interest this play is getting.

Silent running.. the order of the day.. there has to be a motivation for it.. i look at the buying on adi, and see many times where single buyers are buying in many 100's of thousands of shares in intense buying sprees.. its obvious that those doing their reseach are seeing some good upside in the very near future..

i tend to think the next few announcements are going to be extremely interesting..

looking forward to the news to come..

 

[daeff]

The silence here is so load...... I agree agentm that NT for ADI is so important. To have cash flow into the company that can be used to develop the SL field.....


Any other news from SL... i still feel it may be a month away yet.

 

[Agentm]

hey daeff

i believe the announcements on the second well must be very close, EME has an AGM any day now, and i feel certain they need some good news there as their sp has been knocked around bigtime.

There is plenty of news around about SL, but the ability for the jvp's to announce any of it is limited whilst the acerage is being bought up.

The AMI is, in my view, as productive as area A, I think when couch oil revealed porosity on the plays he gave away just a bit too much, and the JVP's and in particular TCE has not been sitting by doing nothing, everything that is required to fully prepare for a massive development of the plays has been done from what i have been told, so the final testing of the plays and the planning of the numbers of wells and locations will be decided by the results from the testing. It is no longer a case of whether the well is commercial, that part is irrelevant to the jvp's and if you understand the chalks then you know much more work needs to be done. the well was always designed to test all the zones of interest, and that is what it will do, once its completed then further news will be announced on numbers of wells and locations and obviously some preconcieved idea on the actual size of potential reserves. and thats where i believe the massive upside is at sugarloaf.

i am certain that the last thing the jvp's would be doing is spending vast amounts in the direction of acerage and further field work unless something very very promising was on the horizon. ADi is not reckless and certainly not sitting around and allowing opportunities to slide by, i am certain that the next 60 days will deliver some amazing twists and turns as the action commences on the area A well, i cant imagine the EME board will be able to drill a well without disclosing what they are targeting and would have to produce some information to the market re the play, so i feel its only a matter of time befor the market is aware of the entire play and its significance.

patience is required by holders, and the clever ones are buying whenever they can i see..