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... it's human nature i guess... no one is interested in buying today... so the market is primed for a hit.... but will fight back at a lower level... if it's awake...
ADI - Adelphi Energy
- Thread starter Dukey
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Yogi I might be completely wrong but if you think we will see a slide to the 40c region sometime soon then your glass is not only half empty but some sneaky bugger has drilled a hole in the bottom of it! You can probably pick up a new one at the Paddo Mkt this Saturday in between your star gazing and palm reading.
I have been trading ADI since the 30c days and for the life of me I can't see what all the fuss is about with today's ann. NT is being hooked up to a SALES PIPE and will be ready soon (does this mean they intend to sell stuff? surely just a coincidence) and SL is ongoing. Relax and wait.
If SL is such a dog then please tell me why the scramble to buy up the neighbourhood? I'd love to know why someone would greatly increase their interest in an area if they thought it was worthless. I know I hate throwing money away but maybe these guys are different and they're just trying to teach us a lesson for being stupid and gullible.
Call me crazy but for the record I was one of the buyers today... the dip to 65c was enough for me to stockup. Miraculously the sp has rebounded to 68c. How lucky am I? Maybe I will nip out and buy a lotto ticket as well...
I have been trading ADI since the 30c days and for the life of me I can't see what all the fuss is about with today's ann. NT is being hooked up to a SALES PIPE and will be ready soon (does this mean they intend to sell stuff? surely just a coincidence) and SL is ongoing. Relax and wait.
If SL is such a dog then please tell me why the scramble to buy up the neighbourhood? I'd love to know why someone would greatly increase their interest in an area if they thought it was worthless. I know I hate throwing money away but maybe these guys are different and they're just trying to teach us a lesson for being stupid and gullible.
Call me crazy but for the record I was one of the buyers today... the dip to 65c was enough for me to stockup. Miraculously the sp has rebounded to 68c. How lucky am I? Maybe I will nip out and buy a lotto ticket as well...
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is it just me or did you notice how ADI did not mention if they were or were not involved in the A block or if they had any prior knowlege of the goings on in Block A.. the only mention on block A is a clever line saying it wont affect the timing of the SL test.. and it said it wouldnt affect the interest in adi's leases aquired within the jv AMI leases. what ever that means.
its not ruling out one thing... are they in on the A block as well or not??
Also yesterday both AUT and EKA were saying:
Eureka has no commitment in this regard but is optimistic that additional wells targeting the Cretaceous carbonates will be drilled following a successful testing program at Sugarloaf #1. The nature of any such wells and our financial obligations would be advised at the time of commitment.
today ADI is proclaiming,,,
The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test.
i say that the optimism of EKA and AUT has overnight become just a timing and numbers game.. somehow ADI is not optimistic of there being any unfavorable test results..
all very upbeat, and IMHO and DYOR or believe in the stars
its not ruling out one thing... are they in on the A block as well or not??
Also yesterday both AUT and EKA were saying:
Eureka has no commitment in this regard but is optimistic that additional wells targeting the Cretaceous carbonates will be drilled following a successful testing program at Sugarloaf #1. The nature of any such wells and our financial obligations would be advised at the time of commitment.
today ADI is proclaiming,,,
The timing and number of additional wells by the Sugarloaf Joint Venture is subject to the results of the forthcoming Sugarloaf 1 well test.
i say that the optimism of EKA and AUT has overnight become just a timing and numbers game.. somehow ADI is not optimistic of there being any unfavorable test results..
all very upbeat, and IMHO and DYOR or believe in the stars
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i didnt even see a buy order for 848,500 units!!
certainly put a spanner in the works,, all quiet on the trades!!
is it possible this was done off market between brokers?
i am impressed, its not at all usual to see that go through, but it went at .65... nice pick up for someone considering whats about to happen in the near term (stars permitting)
certainly put a spanner in the works,, all quiet on the trades!!
is it possible this was done off market between brokers?
i am impressed, its not at all usual to see that go through, but it went at .65... nice pick up for someone considering whats about to happen in the near term (stars permitting)
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hopefully that will clear up why the sp has been played around with for the past days.. it should free that up a little i guess..
Lucky_Country
Formerly known as ijh
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Maybe its this major oil company making its takeover play but the more of those the better and would really tie up the register 
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i have been watching it for a while now, and i know you have mentioned it before.. i wonder if the stars had anything to do with it? or if that yogi had anything to do with it?? he certainly called it again, and so far has turned the upbeat announcements of today into massive 13% downspikes.. he could be using this forum to put code into his posts..
lets break it down.. he put a sad face on one part
21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ...
if you multiply that by three and take off two zeros, thats 842,080 (amazingly close to 848,500 units!!!)
i am starting to wonder about yogi now.. i dunno
lets break it down.. he put a sad face
on one part21052007 ..... negative spotlight on ADI ...
if you multiply that by three and take off two zeros, thats 842,080 (amazingly close to 848,500 units!!!)
i am starting to wonder about yogi now.. i dunno
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Hi Kev, It was exactly 1 million as you said ............ I don't really understand the concepts behind large cross trades ..... this is "broker-land" and out of the realms of us mere mortals ............... I would not try and read too much into it at this stage (for eg. We have all seen large X-trades go through pre and post-open, at prices way below market open on various stocks; particularly blue chips like BHP etc.) ............ Perhaps we could ask Nick Radge for a comment on the significance of these trades, and the "possibilities" behind them ................
Just because it was a large cross trade, does that mean it was from the same seller?? (and going to the same buyer??) ............ or can the broker be acting on behalf of a group of traders at the same time?? .................. Irrespective, it was a large order, ................... for what its worth, my guess, is that it was probably a "transfer" of shares from one account to another (probably still owned by the same people, but in an account more suitable to their current financial situation ........... therefore the price may or may not have been an important consideration, other than for possible tax purposes etc??....................... pure speculation on my part .............. any comments from better informed punters???
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It's never nice to see the sp go down by 8cents, and as Barney mentioned above, the 1 million share trade may not actually be as "serious" as it seem's at face value.
Im looking at the things that i do know for certain that shines a great future for ADI. You dont lease 19500 acres fo no reason, and not for just 1 well either, you dont hook up a pipeline to Isle 1 if its not going to produce. ARQ excercised their options into more shares in ADI at the start of the year, not a single share has been sold by the management ( that we know of for sure). We know there is to be 2 possible shallow wells drilled on SL, as mentioned in the 2006 annual report. Never mind the Yemen, AC/P32, Indonesian works and the joint allience, thats looking into Africa....
Very profesional management team, with plenty of $ in the bank.
I dont know if EME was write or wrong to tell the market about thier 16 well programme, but i wish it hadn't put us in the "messy" situation that we are now in.
Im not suprised that NT is still the never ending 2 weeks away. Just wished they would tell us what has been the hold up.....as for SL, im not suprised either that its now being tested/frec in July.
In fact they can take as much time as they want on planning this frac test, cos stuffing it up is not an option, it needs to be spot on perfect, as the info they'll get from the results will be the foundation for all the other wells on thier lease.
Looks like i better put that resignation letter back in the draw for a while yet.....
Im looking at the things that i do know for certain that shines a great future for ADI. You dont lease 19500 acres fo no reason, and not for just 1 well either, you dont hook up a pipeline to Isle 1 if its not going to produce. ARQ excercised their options into more shares in ADI at the start of the year, not a single share has been sold by the management ( that we know of for sure). We know there is to be 2 possible shallow wells drilled on SL, as mentioned in the 2006 annual report. Never mind the Yemen, AC/P32, Indonesian works and the joint allience, thats looking into Africa....
Very profesional management team, with plenty of $ in the bank.
I dont know if EME was write or wrong to tell the market about thier 16 well programme, but i wish it hadn't put us in the "messy" situation that we are now in.
Im not suprised that NT is still the never ending 2 weeks away. Just wished they would tell us what has been the hold up.....as for SL, im not suprised either that its now being tested/frec in July.
In fact they can take as much time as they want on planning this frac test, cos stuffing it up is not an option, it needs to be spot on perfect, as the info they'll get from the results will be the foundation for all the other wells on thier lease.
Looks like i better put that resignation letter back in the draw for a while yet.....
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I have been askd to reply to this thread regarding the off-market trade.
A few things to understand. Institutions use brokers so major transactions will almost always be between brokers on BEHALF of a client. Who that client is we usually never know and besides, it really makes no difference. Behind every client is a human with the same greed/fear that we all have.
A cross trade will occur when someone wants a piece of the action without upsetting the price or without having to accumulate/distribute the stock quietly over a period of time. All institutions will use a "panel" of brokers. Those brokers feed the client information in hope for return business - go watch Wall Street, it's not much different. One day that client needs/wants to do a serious trade and will need access to stock, either as a buyer or seller. The client will ring their "panel" and ask if they have any clients willing to take the opposite trade or more lieky if they have a client/s interested in the stock - they won't disclose their position if they have to. If these brokers are well connected, which is their intended job, then chances are that they can find the other side to the trade. If so, they can marry up the two sides at an agreed price and "cross" the trade off-market.
One may argue that this is not quite "cricket" but the ASX allows it so as not to create major disturbances in the marketplace.
So, in this case we have a cross trade below the prevaling price. What this suggests to me is that a current long holder - whoever that may be - wished to exit their position without taking their time to distribute their holdings on-market. They ring their broker panel and eventually find one that has a willing buyer - at a discount of course. Supply and demand are at work which is why the seller must sell below the current market price. Nobody in their right mind will buy at the market price or higher knwoing full well that a large seller is willing and able to offload, hence the discount to current market value. Call it a buyers risk premium or "let you out of jail free" card for the seller.
So, when this news hits the wires on the trade we will tend to see follow through because everyone thinks that the sellers knows something - afterall, why would they want to sell in a hurry?
This is not necessarily the case though but can be enough to cause a quick reaction, especially if that buyer got the stock at a significant discount. If they were able to get the stock off market at a good price then sell on-market at a higher price then its a great arbitrage. They may be only in the trade for that alone - we can never know unless a major shareholder notice is lodged.
The stock has shown weakness since its selloff in early March. Last week was a sign of "no demand" which is bearish anyway. Any rally has been met by selling so it could well be that someone has been hurting is just wanting out.
I have to agree with Yogi. looking a tad sick at present...
Nick
A few things to understand. Institutions use brokers so major transactions will almost always be between brokers on BEHALF of a client. Who that client is we usually never know and besides, it really makes no difference. Behind every client is a human with the same greed/fear that we all have.
A cross trade will occur when someone wants a piece of the action without upsetting the price or without having to accumulate/distribute the stock quietly over a period of time. All institutions will use a "panel" of brokers. Those brokers feed the client information in hope for return business - go watch Wall Street, it's not much different. One day that client needs/wants to do a serious trade and will need access to stock, either as a buyer or seller. The client will ring their "panel" and ask if they have any clients willing to take the opposite trade or more lieky if they have a client/s interested in the stock - they won't disclose their position if they have to. If these brokers are well connected, which is their intended job, then chances are that they can find the other side to the trade. If so, they can marry up the two sides at an agreed price and "cross" the trade off-market.
One may argue that this is not quite "cricket" but the ASX allows it so as not to create major disturbances in the marketplace.
So, in this case we have a cross trade below the prevaling price. What this suggests to me is that a current long holder - whoever that may be - wished to exit their position without taking their time to distribute their holdings on-market. They ring their broker panel and eventually find one that has a willing buyer - at a discount of course. Supply and demand are at work which is why the seller must sell below the current market price. Nobody in their right mind will buy at the market price or higher knwoing full well that a large seller is willing and able to offload, hence the discount to current market value. Call it a buyers risk premium or "let you out of jail free" card for the seller.
So, when this news hits the wires on the trade we will tend to see follow through because everyone thinks that the sellers knows something - afterall, why would they want to sell in a hurry?
This is not necessarily the case though but can be enough to cause a quick reaction, especially if that buyer got the stock at a significant discount. If they were able to get the stock off market at a good price then sell on-market at a higher price then its a great arbitrage. They may be only in the trade for that alone - we can never know unless a major shareholder notice is lodged.
The stock has shown weakness since its selloff in early March. Last week was a sign of "no demand" which is bearish anyway. Any rally has been met by selling so it could well be that someone has been hurting is just wanting out.
I have to agree with Yogi. looking a tad sick at present...
Nick
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Thankyou Nick for the insights.
Re the large trade:- Looks to me like a big punter who has become a little impatient with all the waiting, and/or, being so close to the end of the financial year/and a possible May-June correction, is happy to bank the money at this stage ............... (they probably made 50% on their money anyway)
The positive slant is however, that another big punter/punters was happy to buy that million shares at around 65 cents .............. I had a quick search back through the last 4-5 months trades, and that looks to be the largest trade in that time (no surprise there!) ............ so we have a big player in at the current level, with no results on SL till July? .............. You could think negative about the large trade, but adding up all we now know about whats going on (Cikac summarised it well above) ........ I would be inclined to think someone is positioning themselves for the future ............ I mean you dont spend $650,000 on a whim .................. At a glance,the trade might shake a few "weaker hands" out of the share, so there may even be more opportunities for those who aren't in yet to get in at "basement" prices ............. Personally, I'll back todays "buyer" to end up in front ............. all just my opinions.
Re the large trade:- Looks to me like a big punter who has become a little impatient with all the waiting, and/or, being so close to the end of the financial year/and a possible May-June correction, is happy to bank the money at this stage ............... (they probably made 50% on their money anyway)
The positive slant is however, that another big punter/punters was happy to buy that million shares at around 65 cents .............. I had a quick search back through the last 4-5 months trades, and that looks to be the largest trade in that time (no surprise there!) ............ so we have a big player in at the current level, with no results on SL till July? .............. You could think negative about the large trade, but adding up all we now know about whats going on (Cikac summarised it well above) ........ I would be inclined to think someone is positioning themselves for the future ............ I mean you dont spend $650,000 on a whim .................. At a glance,the trade might shake a few "weaker hands" out of the share, so there may even be more opportunities for those who aren't in yet to get in at "basement" prices ............. Personally, I'll back todays "buyer" to end up in front ............. all just my opinions.
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Just a thought about that 1 million X over yesterday, could it also be a broker accumulating stocks for client with the transfer happening yesterday? Is it possible to check CHESS Holdings info in any way to see who brought the stocks?
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yesterday after announcing brilliant news on NT and on SL the sp was hammered..
On the NT announcement;
So they are not expecting to frac the lower wilcox, that means it sure must have flowed sensationally, and only fracing of the wilcox will be done if required, sounds like the lower wilcox is very productive indeed..
according to Hartleys,
If NT well is worst case 40 BCF. then thats .30 to the sp
If Sl is worst case 27 BCf and 12mmb oil. then thats .50 to the sp
Now thats .80 to the sp worst case and we are not talking about cash on hand and not talking value of other leases and projects.
Ignoring the 16 wells for a moment, ADI was proclaiming last month in their presentation (posted on their website) that SL is 100bcf to 170bcf, thats $1.50 -$2.50..
we wont even go near 500 bcf or 1-2 tcf calculations!!
With the worst case senario on NT added to what they are prepared to say about SL, we are in the $3 area.. Not including cash or further prospects..
is it fair to say there is fair value to the adi share on todays prices?
On the NT announcement;
Pursuant to the agreed testing program, one of the Lower Wilcox zones identified from well logs and gas shows during drilling will initially be perforated and flow tested prior to fracture stimulating this zone if required.
So they are not expecting to frac the lower wilcox, that means it sure must have flowed sensationally, and only fracing of the wilcox will be done if required, sounds like the lower wilcox is very productive indeed..
according to Hartleys,
If NT well is worst case 40 BCF. then thats .30 to the sp
If Sl is worst case 27 BCf and 12mmb oil. then thats .50 to the sp
Now thats .80 to the sp worst case and we are not talking about cash on hand and not talking value of other leases and projects.
Ignoring the 16 wells for a moment, ADI was proclaiming last month in their presentation (posted on their website) that SL is 100bcf to 170bcf, thats $1.50 -$2.50..
we wont even go near 500 bcf or 1-2 tcf calculations!!
With the worst case senario on NT added to what they are prepared to say about SL, we are in the $3 area.. Not including cash or further prospects..
is it fair to say there is fair value to the adi share on todays prices?
