ADI - Adelphi Energy
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Howdy Ken, Caution is certainly a virtue when dealing with speculative stocks ............ the thing I noticed most today was the lack of "buyer depth", yet the sp still bounced up with some positive buys ............ That simply tells me that current holders are happy with their positions, and unless we have bad news (which I think is unlikely, particularly with NT) the buyers will have to pay a premium if they want to buy any volume of this stock ............... I dont think ADI will be one of those crazy "screamers" where the sp rises exponentially out of control (which is probably a good thing unless you are a good day trader, which I'm not
), but I think there is a very good chance they will provide medium-long term holders with a generous sp rise over time ............ all imo and no ramping of any kind intended ............. PS My opinions are based on my communications with the Company............. I like to think I am a fair judge of character, and I have found ADI management to be conservative, yet positive about their prospects. If anyone wants confirmation, email them ......... they will reply. Cheers.Barn,
I would have to say I disagree a little with you. ADI halved in such quick time from its all time highs so its not exactly a steady stock at all.
Announcements will play a massive role in the future of the stock for 1-2 year shareholders. As with every stock subject to drill results.
If production comes on board then we are looking at a different stock completely. But at the moment is it fair to say we are paying 60 cents because there is speculation that they have gas? At the moment ADI is just an explorer with some tenemants. (according to market).
There are no guarantees of cash flow.
Theres a lot of positive outlooks on the stock and those who hold their nerve will most likely be rewarded.
Just the way I am looking at it.
I would have to say I disagree a little with you. ADI halved in such quick time from its all time highs so its not exactly a steady stock at all.
Announcements will play a massive role in the future of the stock for 1-2 year shareholders. As with every stock subject to drill results.
If production comes on board then we are looking at a different stock completely. But at the moment is it fair to say we are paying 60 cents because there is speculation that they have gas? At the moment ADI is just an explorer with some tenemants. (according to market).
There are no guarantees of cash flow.
Theres a lot of positive outlooks on the stock and those who hold their nerve will most likely be rewarded.
Just the way I am looking at it.
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Howdy Flint, Not "un" optimistic on SL, Just get the impression that NT is a sure thing whereas SL seems to have been put on the back burner to make way for NT ............ Just a "gut feel" ...... I'll PM you.
Ken, I can't argue that ADI is a spec and all specs are subject to wild fluctuations at times ............... As Agent and others have pointed out on this thread, the gas shows are there to date, but nothing is a sure thing until the gas is in the pipeline and the money is in the bank so to speak .............. The main reason for the big sp drop was obviously the disappointment that the primaries of SL did not give the big windfall that all the speculators were hoping for, so lots bailed out looking for greener pastures ........ human nature at work ........... thats not to say that there is not a lot of gas down there. Thats why I think ADI will not be a "wild ride" like some specs, but I still think it will be "very productive" ................ I could be totally wrong, but my money is where my mouth is so to speak, so I stand to lose substantially if wrong ............. If that happens, it wont be the first time, and hopefully not the last
All the best.
Lucky_Country
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Barney you say SL has been put on the backburner for NT why would they do that.ADI are not the operators of either well so it should not put a strain on the ADI workforce too run both campaigns at once and do they even have a choice on which well too focus on surely the different parteners on each well make decisions separately.Howdy Flint, Not "un" optimistic on SL, Just get the impression that NT is a sure thing whereas SL seems to have been put on the back burner to make way for NT ............ Just a "gut feel" ...... I'll PM you.
Ken, I can't argue that ADI is a spec and all specs are subject to wild fluctuations at times ............... As Agent and others have pointed out on this thread, the gas shows are there to date, but nothing is a sure thing until the gas is in the pipeline and the money is in the bank so to speak .............. The main reason for the big sp drop was obviously the disappointment that the primaries of SL did not give the big windfall that all the speculators were hoping for, so lots bailed out looking for greener pastures ........ human nature at work ........... thats not to say that there is not a lot of gas down there. Thats why I think ADI will not be a "wild ride" like some specs, but I still think it will be "very productive" ................ I could be totally wrong, but my money is where my mouth is so to speak, so I stand to lose substantially if wrong ............. If that happens, it wont be the first time, and hopefully not the last
Not having a go just trying too fathom as much info as possible as ADI announcements regarding there wells dont give much away
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Howdy IJH, You are right ............. I'm certainly no authority on ADI and was not trying to lead other punters at all .......... In hindsight the wording was not great when I said SL may be on the "back burner". That could be misconstrued as a negatively leading statement ......... That certainly wasn't my intention; (ADI is my biggest holding ) I was actually trying to emphasise the point that NT imo may be "bigger" than first thought........... The recent shows on NT were "very interesting" and when they started talking about "pipelines" I thought it was one of the most bullish statements to come from ADI to date. Thats the main reason I thought NT may prove to be more of a bonus than first envisaged ................ Certainly not discounting SL in the slightest .............. To the contrary ............ (Hope that clears up any confusion and apologies if the wrong vibe was given)................
I did email the Co., but I dont think its the right thing to post emails on the general forum site without permission, but it is safe to say that the feedback was positive. ............. I'll take a backseat for now and let those who know a lot more than me talk turkey. Good luck.
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19500 acres = 79km²... thats almost 9 x 9 km... if productive across 28m of shows... that could mean reserves are in the order of several 100's of bcf's....and potentially in a very optimistic case a Tcf or so... looks good but soooo loooong to wait.....
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oh yes and seems very likely the SL delays are due to acreage acquisition and not the well test program.... that's a very good signal.... mind you that'll do nothing for the SP in the short term....
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I thought it was common knowledge that the SL delays were due to acreage
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ha ha ... probably is... just not at this keyboard.... happy to hold my EKA for a while now though..... might pick up some more EKA or ADI if the price is right...
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Just my opinion, but unless you needed to money for something else, I can't imagine why anyone would be selling today ............. We now have a time frame from the company, and the land aquisition can only mean positives to me ........... Anyone see it different to me? I think we will see a little positive price action over the next few days (maybe even this arvo) .......... I wont be complaining ........... Good luck lads (and ladies of course)
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maybe they are using the acreage to grow corn?
cant see any downside, market cant see any upside
cant see any downside, market cant see any upside
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Could jump out - try and make some profit elsewhere in the next couple of months - and then jump back in for roughly the same price ..... if that's a risk you'd be prepared to take on.. otherwise the money's gonna be pretty stagnant for a few months....
I have been riding ADI since they were 25 cents. I have kept the majority but have traded to be free carried at the moment. They still have activity at New Taiton to come and there was a whisper around at the APPEA conference that there may be action at AC/P32 sooner than many think. I think it is safer to be in than out at the moment.
Cheers.
Cheers.
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now there is a smart call blues!!
i have been hearing things about the offshore drill,, i am no fan of offshore, and particularily after magnolia, and blues, i guess you didnt have to worry about that as you got in after that, but if coogee knows what it is doing i would be more confident, i am not convinced the lease is brilliant, and i thought magnolia was the main play.. time will tell and i guess if they have new info to tell the market we will be told before christmas!!
i have been hearing things about the offshore drill,, i am no fan of offshore, and particularily after magnolia, and blues, i guess you didnt have to worry about that as you got in after that, but if coogee knows what it is doing i would be more confident, i am not convinced the lease is brilliant, and i thought magnolia was the main play.. time will tell and i guess if they have new info to tell the market we will be told before christmas!!
