ADI - Adelphi Energy

[sandybeachs]

AGENTM

hi agentm

ok...you seem too be the guru..

i'll ask you toughest question since commencement of drilling.

what is your estimate of possible resource..???? ie:200bcf

while i'm at it i'll ask another...LOL

have a stab at a flow rate..???? ie:20mmcfd

regards

 

[Agentm]

Guru??? ME??? just a confident investor with a goal to invest for a great return..

i'll only answer this if it can be used against me later!!!

my only wish is for one secondary,, and this has come true..

as far as reserves.. its impossible to estimate..

but lets say they have porosity at 12% like couchy said in his excitement.. we can then say the secondaries are worth twice what they estimated perhaps.. whenever they decide to declare it and let me know what it is i'll be a happy man.. no one has done proper reserve estimates on the secondaries, and the austin chalks were a very late edition to the whole plan.. i honestly think its a lot bigger than anyone out there currently thinks.. way bigger..



Now for the primary.. i cant calculate reserves and flow rates with no data like Mr Campbell can, but as a expert investor i will give it my best shot.. so quickly i will pull up the two announcements from ADI on the primary and run through the figures.. what figures?? oh well,, lets guess and dream then.

I wouldnt expect texas crude to deliver anything less than what they went there for.. So my guess is 800 BCF and 35mmcfd, and as couchy said they did porosity guessing with new fangled high tech systems costing mega millions,, then lets hope they at least get double what they went there for..

now i expect everyone reading this to totally believe i can tell you exactly whats down there.. but as far as i am concerned, if TCO didnt fail on the secondary, and had shows on the primary,, i wont expect anything less than what they had expected as a minimum to be delivered..

and before christmas also god damn it..!!!

now DYOR guys and DYO guesswork also.. and DYO ramping ...

all imho and totally unplausable research ....

whats your angle on the well so far sandy???

 

[maverick11]

There's also gas in the Sligo which has been overlooked. Edwards didn't look too flash but to me it sounds like shows #2 & #3 were in Sligo as we know #1 was in the austin and #4-7 were in the hosston. Nothing major, but potentially commercial non the less:

18th Oct @ 17,000ft:

Since the last report, the well drilled 2,520ft of 8.5” hole, mostly in a Cretaceous age limestone, which was a secondary gas target in the well. In this interval, several methane-only gas shows were obtained. In order to isolate the extensive interval of limestone in anticipation of higher pressures in the Hosston Formation targe, drilling was halted at 17,000’ to enable a 7 5/8” liner to be run and cemented in place.

From Hartleys Report (avail on their website):

The main technical risk to the Sugarloaf prospect is the preservation of porosity at a depth of greater than 5,200m (17,000ft). In most basins of the world, reservoir quality porosity and permeability is usually too low at these depths to be productive. However, in the Gulf Coast Basin of the USA (especially Texas and Louisiana) there are a number of producing fields at these depths. Published data indicates that in excess of 21tcf of gas has been produced to date from approximately 350 deep onshore fields in the Gulf Coast Basin area at an average well depth of 5,200m (17,000ft).
In addition to the primary Hosston target, there are multiple shallower secondary targets which have been recently upgraded following nearby drilling and flowtesting. These shallower targets, which include the Wilcox,
Edwards and Sligo formations, will be evaluated as part of the Sugarloaf-1 well (Figure 3). Mean potential for these shallower targets is 12mmb of oil and 27bcf of gas.

 

[barney]

This article on Gas/Drilling might be of some interest

http://www.continental-labs.ab.ca/lib.htm

 

[Agentm]

now i have to revise my calculations again!!

good article..

 

[stiger]

now i have to revise my calculations again!!

good article..

It was a good read, best case scenario for today would be trading halt across partners - followed by ann.Cheers

 

[Agentm]

does AUT have a better share position than ADI??

just trying to understand why AUT, with no massive cash reserves on hand, and about 30% more shares has such high value today .. i know eka is way overpriced,, but doesnt share percentages carry some weight on how you value a share? both AUT and ADI have 20% but if one company has less shares and more cash wouldnt that weigh in its favour?

perhaps ADI is great value at these prices?? i dont know??

kinda wish they would stop drillin and start testin..

 

[kevro]

Morning Agent M, I am probably wrong but it has been mentioned around the traps that an instituition was selling in lots of 25K. I don't believe they have finished yet and are continuing on and off in 25K & 50k lots, but over 60c at least.

Kevro

 

[sandybeachs]

hi agentm

"i know eka is way overpriced"

actually i don't think it's that bad..

seems as though people are over looking it's current drilling in Turkey..

Koyunlu#1 has a possible recoverable 31mmbls (P50) 204mmbls (P10), 2.3mmbs (P90).

currently EKA has a 20% interest, which it can increase to 45%.

also worth noting oil in nearby fields is fairly heavy oil, so don't expect large bopd, perhaps some where around a 200bopd.

should that come in as well as Sugarloaf, it's a bargain

fully diluted approx 80mm shares..

regards

 

[nioka]

does AUT have a better share position than ADI??

just trying to understand why AUT, with no massive cash reserves on hand, and about 30% more shares has such high value today .. i know eka is way overpriced,, but doesnt share percentages carry some weight on how you value a share? both AUT and ADI have 20% but if one company has less shares and more cash wouldnt that weigh in its favour?

perhaps ADI is great value at these prices?? i dont know??

kinda wish they would stop drillin and start testin..

I hold both AUT and ADI. I believe Aut is not quite as speculative as ADI, If Sugarloaf is very successful then ADI must be the better bet but AUT has Nth Bellridge on the go and it has avery good chance of success. I consider AUT as my insurance against Sugarloaf problems.

 

[sandybeachs]

what do you think is significant..????

hi guys

email from Charles Couch dated 14/11/06

what do you think when he says ""We have 6 significant shows""
===============================================


We have 6 significant shows. Wait for the final log for final evaluation.

Nice to have a good gas show + a good gamma ray log.


Charles Couch

Exploration Manager

Oil2 Holdings, Inc

1919 Rhome Street

Dallas, Texas 75229

(972) 444-0256

Fax (972) 444-0276

cell (214) 616-3832

 

[Agentm]

what do you think he is talking about sandy.. whats your take on his email??

 

[sandybeachs]

hi agentm

what do you think he is talking about sandy.. whats your take on his email??

lets just hope his "significant" means huge..

also just re-reading some comments by Peter Strachan's StockAnalysis report, avaliable on ADI's website
===================================================
""""The main target zone has been mapped by seismic data as a four way dip closure with an area of up to 80 km² at a depth between 5,200 and 6,400 metres. The company has set a mean target size of 800 Bcf of gas at depth with potential for an additional 12 mmbbls and 27 Bcf in shallowers Wilcox, Sligo and Austin Chalk formations, which can be targeted by the same well. However, Strachan Corporate calculates that a closure of just 40 km² or just half the mapped target size, with a 30 metre net pay zone and 10% porosity could deliver a gas pool of 1.7 Tcf.""""
============================================

correct me if i'm wrong thus far JVP's have some 78.5 metres of gas shows..

regards

 

[Broadside]

hi agentm



lets just hope his "significant" means huge..

also just re-reading some comments by Peter Strachan's StockAnalysis report, avaliable on ADI's website
===================================================
""""The main target zone has been mapped by seismic data as a four way dip closure with an area of up to 80 km² at a depth between 5,200 and 6,400 metres. The company has set a mean target size of 800 Bcf of gas at depth with potential for an additional 12 mmbbls and 27 Bcf in shallowers Wilcox, Sligo and Austin Chalk formations, which can be targeted by the same well. However, Strachan Corporate calculates that a closure of just 40 km² or just half the mapped target size, with a 30 metre net pay zone and 10% porosity could deliver a gas pool of 1.7 Tcf.""""
============================================

correct me if i'm wrong thus far JVP's have some 78.5 metres of gas shows..

regards

And maybe a few more shows they haven't disclosed because they don't deem them significant, but possibly a chance when they conduct more testing

 

[kevro]

hi agentm



lets just hope his "significant" means huge..

also just re-reading some comments by Peter Strachan's StockAnalysis report, avaliable on ADI's website
===================================================
""""The main target zone has been mapped by seismic data as a four way dip closure with an area of up to 80 km² at a depth between 5,200 and 6,400 metres. The company has set a mean target size of 800 Bcf of gas at depth with potential for an additional 12 mmbbls and 27 Bcf in shallowers Wilcox, Sligo and Austin Chalk formations, which can be targeted by the same well. However, Strachan Corporate calculates that a closure of just 40 km² or just half the mapped target size, with a 30 metre net pay zone and 10% porosity could deliver a gas pool of 1.7 Tcf.""""
============================================

correct me if i'm wrong thus far JVP's have some 78.5 metres of gas shows..

Hi Sandy, that 78.5m of gas show is from the 3 reported significant gas shows. That means according to Couchie that there is another 3 significant gas shows of unknown depth that still will need to be factored in.

 

[Agentm]

i think couchys comments were taken seriously, not so much by the markets, as he didnt back it up with figures, but by TCO. Since then he has not been able to say anything..

was he speaking the truth?? there are those around who away from the boards are prepared to say what they know and have a good idea what he is talking about, but in all fairness to the sp and to daytraders riding rumours, have kept fairly low key on it..

I agree the calculations you post sandy are all very very conservative on the primary.. and as far as the commercial viability goes,, if the flow happens and they are spot on, then multi TCF is feasable..

at these depths anywhere else in the world you just dont get commercial gas shows.. adi has been required under the rules of the asx to report 3 potentially commercial flows right in the primary targets,, 2 ( or a whole lot more if you believe couch) in the upper, and one in the lower..

the estimates were for 300' in the upper and 75' in the lower, and crap porosity.. and with that you got way above 800BCF,, i think from memory around 1.5TCF..

they have hardly given anything away.. only reported the shows they absolutely had to.. its anyones guess what they really have before them.. whatever it is, it certainly is important enough for them to keep everyones lips well and truely sealed..

they managed through very clever wording to completely blindside the market on the austin chalks,, when couchy got excited, they shut him up.. then the primary went.. couchy got excited,,and again they shut him up,, WHY???

my money is on the positive side.. i view the secondary as commercial, and the as for the primary.. i only look at logic, if its a closed shop, then there is obviously a reason to keep it that way,, the land owners were already signed up on the primary, and less were signed on the secondary, so what other reason can there be?

i like conspiracy theorys, but my theory is pretty biased, i only want to believe the primary is commercial now.. before i only dreamed it,, now i see every day in volumes of trade, lack of information, and stability in sp.. way different to magnolia when in a sudden moment all hell broke out and the sp fell.. in the oil business you cant keep bad news off the market,, good news is always different, people are suspicious about the motives, sp doesnt move unless backed up with facts, but bad news in the oil business travels fast,, i dont see anything like that.. i remain optomistic.. confident..

this is entirely IMHO and DYOR on how to take the news around.. you can present good arguements for the opposite, but no one has yet..

 

[fflintoff]

Hi Sandy, that 78.5m of gas show is from the 3 reported significant gas shows. That means according to Couchie that there is another 3 significant gas shows of unknown depth that still will need to be factored in.

------------------------------
They are not of unknown depth. Total shows so far as per TCEI ´ ´s logs are 7 of which 4 are in the primary & 3 in the secondary ( Austin Chalk & Sligo ).

 

[austrader02]

Yo ppl,

Not much to report this week and therefore i slept nice and easy knowing the company was not going to make any release towards the end of the week! bring on the well-testing as i really doubt many more releases are coming our way. Does anyone have an idea on how they plan to flow-test this well.....test it whie the rig is on location or complete the well, put a wellhead and flow test into a massive massive flare pit to barbeque 10000 snaggers!

lets hope this well is not tight and will flow.....5 weeks to christmas....i want to have extra cash for my trip!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Have a good weekend and hoping for some good cricket....i like Kevin.P and Freddie........some runs from either would be good!

 

[The Snorkler]

Thanks for all the information everybody. Its all great reading. Im still onboard for the big win and confident

I just spent three days at a Petroleum Engineer love-in (conference) in the countryside. Definitely thinking of switching to architecture now.

The write-up in the English press re: the Ashes are pretty classic. There was a nice two page spread devoted to the first wide bowl. They calculated it was heading for SanFransico.

 

[fflintoff]

These are the depths of shows 5 6 & 7 which are deemed to be commercial subject to testing by TCEI :-


SHOW #5
MW IN 14.9 SAND = DULL WHITE AND TAN; FINE-GRAIN
QUARTS AND CARBONATE UNCONSOLIDATED

18300
GRAINS; POORLY SORTED; SUB-ANGULAR
TO ROUNDED, OCCASSIONALLY FROSTED TO
POLISHED;
LIMESTONE.
SAND = OFF WHITE AND CLEAR; MOSTLY SILTY
GPM 178
SHOW #6

18400
BLACK SHALE AND OCC LIMESTONE.
MW IN 15.0 SAND = WHITE AND TAN; SILT TO FINE-GRAIN
MW OUT 14.9 QUARTS AND CARBONATE UNCONSOLIDATED
SHOW #7

In addition a further commercial gas show of 18ft was reported on 17 November 2006. Specific depth was not stated in the report but it is between 19150ft & 19434ft as below.

“SUGARLOAF-1 WEEKLY PROGRESS REPORT
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 14th November 2006 the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well, located in the onshore Gulf Coast Basin in Texas, USA, was drilling ahead in 6 ½ inch hole at a depth of 19,150 feet (5,838 metres)

SUGARLOAF-1 GAS SHOW
Aurora Oil and Gas Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 16 November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at 19,434 feet (5,925 metres).
Since the last well progress report released on 15 November 2006, the well has encountered a gas show over an 18 foot (5.5 metres) interval. Total gas readings peaked at 536 units from a background of about 230 units and chromatography indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and a trace of butane (C4). “

Shows are believed to be multiple & continuous over the sands depending on the formation ratio. Adelphi has already confirmed to Stereo that not all shows will be reported unless they are deemed to be significantly more commercial than hitherto.