ADI - Adelphi Energy

[The Snorkler]

ouch that hurts! I topped up at 70 c today :-(. It just highlights the volatility of small cap mining stocks. Not sure what to make of it. I dont see how they can write off the primary when they have the same information as we do. Can wait for the testing.

 

[Agentm]

just back from the ARQ meeting..

i see they are keen on sugarloaf, unlike todays market they have a different view on the well.. anyway there are far more informed people out there who are certain sugarloaf is dead in the primary, its just that the arq guys and adi directors are not aware of it!! i guess you have to trust who or what you hear.. and follow those who you trust.. i kinda trust the arq guys, so sorry if i disbelieve all the crap i hear today about the primary! i will wait for the official verdict..

ARQ say you cant judge, and so do ADI, they all wait for the flow testing,, and spoke of maybe stopping at TD,, maybe going further,, maybe not,, also said they may have to do a deeper drill on another well and go right through the sands end to end, i guess they do that if the primary is commercial and they cant go as far as they would like this drill.. so if they dont achieve all their objectives this time, they certainly can in the future that is.. its real deep, real tricky and day to day stuff on sugarloaf..

i know the whole market has lost faith in the shows, and are drawing comparisons with other wells flows and making very dramatic conclusions.. its interesting that arq and adi know nothing of these theories, but if someone can tell me how you can call a well like that at this stage, then please let me know, i am interested in researching it further.. just so i can learn more about how to make a call on a well as a failure in a zone without knowing anything about porosity, or having the wireline logs and without seeing the flow tests..

I wonder who really did prosper from the scare mongering about today.. its all daytrader folly i guess.. it worries me none as i dont look at todays prices as the correct price for the success of the secondaries,, and when arq or adi start writing off the primary, then i think the price has a reason to tumble, but someone out there was making a real good go of getting their hands on all the stock that was squandered on the exchange today.. good luck to those selling and good luck to those clever enough to take advantage of the great buying prices..

i left the ARQ meeting without any doubt about sugarloaf, not that they are saying anything is a success, but not a nervous flinch, not an incling of a hint of lack of focus on what sugarloaf is about, what the objectives of the drill are, and not at all giving anything but praise towards texas crude for the fine work they are doing..

i think a few at arq and adi are today at all worried about SL. they seem focused on getting the job finished, getting it wirelined and cased, then flow tested..

i guess 80 meters of gas shows on a wildcat is still in todays terms considered a failure by some, but for me, i wait for the results and then once i am told what is commercial and what isnt and see the price go to the level it should, then i consider selling, and only then.. but thats just me!! everyone else seems to see it different! my position is long and remains..

 

[stiger]

just back from the ARQ meeting..

i see they are keen on sugarloaf, unlike todays market they have a different view on the well.. anyway there are far more informed people out there who are certain sugarloaf is dead in the primary, its just that the arq guys and adi directors are not aware of it!! i guess you have to trust who or what you hear.. and follow those who you trust.. i kinda trust the arq guys, so sorry if i disbelieve all the crap i hear today about the primary! i will wait for the official verdict..

ARQ say you cant judge, and so do ADI, they all wait for the flow testing,, and spoke of maybe stopping at TD,, maybe going further,, maybe not,, also said they may have to do a deeper drill on another well and go right through the sands end to end, i guess they do that if the primary is commercial and they cant go as far as they would like this drill.. so if they dont achieve all their objectives this time, they certainly can in the future that is.. its real deep, real tricky and day to day stuff on sugarloaf..

i know the whole market has lost faith in the shows, and are drawing comparisons with other wells flows and making very dramatic conclusions.. its interesting that arq and adi know nothing of these theories, but if someone can tell me how you can call a well like that at this stage, then please let me know, i am interested in researching it further.. just so i can learn more about how to make a call on a well as a failure in a zone without knowing anything about porosity, or having the wireline logs and without seeing the flow tests..

I wonder who really did prosper from the scare mongering about today.. its all daytrader folly i guess.. it worries me none as i dont look at todays prices as the correct price for the success of the secondaries,, and when arq or adi start writing off the primary, then i think the price has a reason to tumble, but someone out there was making a real good go of getting their hands on all the stock that was squandered on the exchange today.. good luck to those selling and good luck to those clever enough to take advantage of the great buying prices..

i left the ARQ meeting without any doubt about sugarloaf, not that they are saying anything is a success, but not a nervous flinch, not an incling of a hint of lack of focus on what sugarloaf is about, what the objectives of the drill are, and not at all giving anything but praise towards texas crude for the fine work they are doing..

i think a few at arq and adi are today at all worried about SL. they seem focused on getting the job finished, getting it wirelined and cased, then flow tested..

i guess 80 meters of gas shows on a wildcat is still in todays terms considered a failure by some, but for me, i wait for the results and then once i am told what is commercial and what isnt and see the price go to the level it should, then i consider selling, and only then.. but thats just me!! everyone else seems to see it different! my position is long and remains..

Lighten up ! We'll know a lot more shortly,those people have skill trust them .cheers.

 

[Agentm]

no, your real estate is too dear..


i went to the melbourne meeting of ARQ at the rialto..

i think they do sydney next.. check the website, they did perth on friday..
i see EME didnt suffer the same fate as ADI did as harshly.. i wonder how the SP will go tomorrow.. more bad news i guess as the sheep get led to the slaughter by the all knowing advisers..

who is doing all the buying then?? i wonder????

 

[austrader02]

Hi All,

Woke up this morning in London and saw the share price get smashed.....why?........got no idea as there is no indication yet from ADI that its a bummer or a flowing dynamite! I would like to explain few things on how i feel the well is drilled. Having gas shows by no means its porous due to the fact as when u drill through the rock you are technically breaking it up into pieces and hence increasing its porosity!

First they will run wireline logs to see the extent of the reservoir and its permeability and porosity. Permeability means how well the gas is connected in the rock(i think) and porosity as we know is its flow capability. The partners will run the logs which will enable them to see its flowing potential. If in their views its good, then they will complete the well and perforate - perforate is shooting bullets into the zones u feel which will be most productive to let it flow.

I think at this stage all they did was report shows, but they dont know and we dont know if it will flow. Depth here is a big issue as there is a lot of compaction and that means its porosity cannot be guaranteed. I have heard of wells where the oil structure was so big but the porosity and permeability was non-existent!

Its just a subjective view to the situation. We all have been quite excited and i think we should be. the secondaries are great....primary look positive but the ADI directors cant run around saying its a roarer as they dont know and hence we just need to wait! Its playing conservative by the JV and i personally agree with it rather than they ramp the stock and then people come crashing down! If its good then we all win!

 

[fflintoff]

no, your real estate is too dear..


i went to the melbourne meeting of ARQ at the rialto..

i think they do sydney next.. check the website, they did perth on friday..
i see EME didnt suffer the same fate as ADI did as harshly.. i wonder how the SP will go tomorrow.. more bad news i guess as the sheep get led to the slaughter by the all knowing advisers..

Advisers & advisers. None of ém know diddly. Might be right, might be wrong.

http://www.horizonoil.com.au/Press Releases/2006/November/M&A easier than E&P.pdf

“Early indications are very promising for a commercial result; likewise for Adelphi, Aurora and Eureka's Sugarloaf prospect in Texas, which looks likely to at least cover costs from a shallow gas pool.”

Peter Strachan,
independent analyst and
author of
www.stockanalysis.com.au
1 November 2006

 

[JBMMMMMMMMMM]

News of a spud at New taiton would certainly help SP as for Sugarloaf no news seems bad news for alot of holders -J campbells negative views in his Jnr oil weekly- certainly didn't help as did the overall weakness in oilers.

I e-mailed J campbell on his reasons with imfo from Peter Strachan est.------------- negative Vs postive veiws


His reply-John a good gas discovery will have gas flowing to the surface under natural pressure, if that happens on testing then I'll eat my words. But background gas readings are only an indication of hydrocarbons, they don't say anything about the nature of the reservoirs. Don't know how Peter could make such calculations as he has based on info to hand. 1.7 Tcf is highly unlikely in my opinion.

 

[sandybeachs]

hi guys

like most we'd all like to see a successful outcome for the shareholders of ADI, AUT & EKA.

also it would be epecially good for the energy sector as a whole..

plenty of speculation as too whether it will be commercial or not.

you have those who are super confident and those who are a little cautious..

the bottom line is, nobody really knows until the well is drilled to T.D and tests have been completed.

as for the fall in the past couple of days, well worth looking at energy sector indicies chart (XEJ) & ALL ORDS chart (XAO)..

the energy sector chart (XEJ) is almost a mirror image of ADI's chart over the past 6days.

in as much as energy sector chart has basically fallen over the past 6days, ADI's chart is exactly the same..

my gut feeling is, the above has been the major factor in ADI's re-trace. perhaps had the sector pullback not occured, then ADI's & it's JVP's share price might be higher..????

baring any announcement, keep an eye on the indicies. that will give you a clear view of where the share price might be heading.

market forces are at work at present, not much you can do other than weather the storm..

regards

 

[Agentm]

great post sandy, totally agree with you on this..


I am one who as you well know is very confident on the sugarloaf secondaries.. the primary is a bonus for those who have bought in on the share..
on wednrsday we will get the usual conservative news, and i expect you will get in the next week an announcement re new tiaton.. ARQ seemed to feel it was very close..

I imagine some news of further projects will also soon surface..

interesting to see AUT trading so close to ADI in price with the stock having the same percentage to ADI on SL and quite a different share percentage..

i suspect today will be more of the same!!

 

[maverick11]

good to see investors are finally smartening up! It also seems our jackass friend john campbell is also the Non-Executive Director for Northern Territory Oil Limited.....

 

[Agentm]

i see they are doing an IPO

he isnt an oil man at all.. has no experience in the oil..

they say the oil and gas weekly is highly respected... come on maverick this guy is a diplomat who knows gas should spew mud back out of a well or it isnt economic..

doesnt say anywhere which oil company he worked for as a geologist.. and i cant see any reference to anything from the oil industry..

i still back the texas crude guys and the arq and adi guys over this mans expertise anyday.. imagine publishing a respected magazine and calling a dry well before flow testing.. man this guy is amazing.. dont think i would even cast a glance at the IPO if this is the level of professionalism he is at...

John Campbell
Non-executive Director

An economist specialising in international trade and resources, Mr Campbell served as Australian Ambassador to Laos, Israel and Chile and held other senior diplomatic posts in Asia and Europe as part of a 35 year career in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He also served with the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Now a professional oil and gas sector investor, Mr Campbell is also the publisher of the highly respected Oil and Gas Weekly newsletter and has a thorough understanding of the opportunities and challenges facing the junior oil explorer sector.

He is a graduate of the University of Western Australia (B. Economics) and Yonsei University (Diploma in Korean Language) Seoul, Korea.

Mr Campbell was elected as a Non-Executive Director of Northern Territory Oil Limited in January 2006. He is 62 years old.

 

[Lert]

Hi Guys, My first post on these forums... Picked up ADI yesterday @ 61.5 so fingers crossed.. Hoping to add some leverage to my non performing ARQ holdings.

 

[fflintoff]

News of a spud at New taiton would certainly help SP as for Sugarloaf no news seems bad news for alot of holders -J campbells negative views in his Jnr oil weekly- certainly didn't help as did the overall weakness in oilers.

I e-mailed J campbell on his reasons with imfo from Peter Strachan est.------------- negative Vs postive veiws


His reply-John a good gas discovery will have gas flowing to the surface under natural pressure, if that happens on testing then I'll eat my words. But background gas readings are only an indication of hydrocarbons, they don't say anything about the nature of the reservoirs. Don't know how Peter could make such calculations as he has based on info to hand. 1.7 Tcf is highly unlikely in my opinion.

---------------
Interesting that the paid bashers are now starting to appear here. The above is old news that has already been discredited.

 

[barney]

Howdy lads, I could be a little biased, but I saw a few positives in todays price action ........... Not a lot of news to get anyone worked up about, yet, the Sp rose, The volume was up close to as high as its been in a week, and I dont know whether anyone else noticed, but most of the last 200,000 buy orders that went through today were from buyers "jumping the queue" to get in at .64-.65 In other words there weren't too many buyers showing their hand late in trade ........... tells me there is still interest, even if it is a bit subtle. Tomorrow or Thurs will be interesting if the sp keeps edging up. Of course, if it goes down below .60 I have no idea what I'm talking about. Good luck to ya's all on this one .... Barney.

 

[Lucky_Country]

Can we assume there have been no more gas shows since the last one or have they encountered drilling problems and drilling has been slow or come too a halt ?

 

[massno]

Reeelax my fellow adi'ers, I think all will be fine, this is an already proven find with the announcements and stats in line...as you would come to expect form the reputable companies involved...Really can't wait for that testing...bought more this morning at 60c...yobeauty !!

 

[Agentm]

On the gas shows issue, there is a clear mandate to not announce all shows, so we only have the shows which they have deemed potentially commercial, to warrant reporting.

Clearly there were at least 6 shows in the initial upper primary, and of them the announcements that came out were for 2 or so.

It cant be ruled out that there were more shows, and perhaps a number are not giving strong readings, and not being deemed to be significant but perhaps with some clever work from texas crude and the fracing, they may deliver flows.

Last week someone posted an email from Alex stating that because there wasnt an announcement, that didnt mean they were not getting shows.

On the basis that this well is extremely closed shop right now, I would not be prepared to wager against there being more shows, and of them perhaps some that came close to being significant but maybe fell short of being announced..

The thing about this share is that the information is so secretive, that its impossible to assess about whether has commercial potential or if it hasnt.. and even if all information was released, it still couldnt be determined until flow testing.

As far as i am concerned, the fact we have shows and as that the number and size of the shows outperformed the estimates in the prospectus, it leaves me with a great deal of confidence that at least the secondary shows are potentially commercial, and the primary has a chance..

In texas they do succeed in extracting flows from very tight and very deep regions, and they are very clever in engineering and getting flows with modern techniques, i wouldnt expect they would be continuing to drill to TD if the the well didnt have some potential to be commercial. but these guys have thrown everything at the problems they have had. They dont drill this deep and not expect to have to frac and do a lot of work to extract flows.
The 75 days of drilling has been blown out of the water, and I view the determined approach by texas crude to continue not as a foolish exercise and folly, but more as a professional outfit, getting it done, learning as much as they can about the structure to make sure they can determin and to either succeed in getting all they can for them to totally be sure of success, or rule out the possibility of the well being commercial.


Much has to be done from here, reaching a decision on TD is first and foremost, then working the primarys for flow.

Lets see what we learn from todays announcement..

 

[sandybeachs]

NEW TAITON PROPSECT

hi guys

update announcement today in ANTARES ENERGY (AZZ)..

seems as though we are getting close, about time..LOL

NEW TAITION ""Spud date as advised by the operator is early December.""

ANTARES ENERGY LIMITED
ASX/NEWS RELEASE 22 November 2006
EXPLORATION UPDATE
Project: New Taiton
Prospect: New Taiton
Well: Isle-1
Wharton County, Texas, S. Lavon Evans, Jr., Operating Company, Inc. Operator,
Antares 25%
The drilling location is ready and the newly refurbished rig is preparing for mobilisation from Lerado, Texas. Spud date as advised by the operator is early December. The total depth for this well will be 17,000 feet with Antares financial exposure estimated to be USD 1.3 million on
a dry hole basis.
Contact:
James Cruickshank, Executive Director, Antares Energy Limited Tel: + (61) (0) 419 903 452
For more information: www.antaresenergy.com
ANTARES
ENERGY A.C.N. 009 230 835

 

[tarzanhey]

Morning you guys - 22.56 pm over here - so evening for me.

What a roller coster ride we are having - patience and steel balls will pay big dividends imho.

I still have every faith in the Hosston - but thats me and I am an optimist.

Good luck! and keep cool! dont let your shares go cheap (at this price they are damn cheap).

 

[maverick11]

great news i think. in 5-6 days given no delays they will have struck 21,000!