ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Kremmen]

I actually don't understand why people are buying above the 40c expecting higher bids for ADI, unless driven by defensive mechanism. You would think the best alternative for non-holders is actually to invest in the other JVP partners? If I was a holder, I would not sell.

If a stock is going up, you want to be buying. If it's going down, you want to be selling. Something you wouldn't buy and wouldn't sell makes no sense at all to me. (... excepting issues of taxation and risk assessment, which are relevant to personal circumstances, not the overall worth of the stock.)

Is ADI worth buying? Sure. Are other JVPs better value? I believe so, as they are lagging behind ADI's big jump. If I'd been watching the market open, I might well have sold ADI and bought AUT.

 

[Miner]

so is awe chasing down the aut share next?

based on the valuations they offer for adi the current aut price is a steal..

minimum price 100 cents for aut..

Why not EKA even if the holding of EKA is only 12.5% (generally) whereas AUT and ADI has about equal stakes.
EKA rose by 25% as well today.
Who knows but you should be at moon after such a hard effort .
Good work

 

[rider58]

So what would have to happen for this stock to drop below the 40c mark before june, or is that impossible?

Seems like this "stop loss" will only benifit us small investors as everyone will want to be buying in, essentially taking JVP out of a large porportion market share in a sense?

Happy holder, but being a newb unsure what it all means

 

[megla]

... bought in at a 7c average ... was at least waiting for $1

My dollar cost ave is .65 - not selling until I at least break even... been holding for a long time.

 

[Sdajii]

My dollar cost ave is .65 - not selling until I at least break even... been holding for a long time.

I paid less than 20c for most of what I hold, but I see purchase price as irrelevant. What I see as relevant is what I can get now and what I can get later. What I can get later is a heck of a lot more than 40c. Even though my entry was much less than half yours, I would need to be offered substantially more than 65c to sell at this point.

 

[Ramblin Round]

I am awaiting the position on Adelphi for advice. I too bought under the 20c mark so 40c is a nice starting point offer IMHO. Of course I'm on the US market which acts differently to the ASX. This thing is spreading all over the internet via Wall Street like crazy today ! Exciting times for sure !

Does anyone know when we might see the updated "shareholders advice" from Adelphi ?

 

[condog]

Correct me if im wrong, but didnt ADI recently go to 38c pre-morgan results.

Then if thats the case and Rancho about to produce, why would 40c seem at all attractive?
With the Hartleys valuation admitting its low and upgrades likely in july form 45c, and now yesterday saying itsa buy at 50c according to Agent, how is 40c ok.

Its a low ball offer. And you must be very pesimistic about drilling condensate and gas to think you cant easily surpass that without a takeover.

Its crazy the board didnt immediately advise rejection.

 

[Agentm]

Why not EKA even if the holding of EKA is only 12.5% (generally) whereas AUT and ADI has about equal stakes.
EKA rose by 25% as well today.
Who knows but you should be at moon after such a hard effort .
Good work

eka had reached parity to adi in minutes.. aut is still way way off.. 100 cents should see it right..

piling into aut right now miner..

no one is pleased with awe from what i can tell, but the valuation of it will drive the likes of aut into the correct price range over 100 cents in quick fashion

condog, the board imho will do so very quickly, i expect a reply from them in the coming weeks myself

the offer is set for months from now, and there is plenty of upside to adi as results come through..

i am not privy to the awe boards knowledge of adi myself, whether they knew of the delays of rancho grande.. but imho they have certainly timed the run right when no results are coming through, pre the re evaluation of adi, and pre adi being able to present their reserve estimates..

pretty ruthless work by awe, if you into their share its going to be high fives and smiles all round, but there is no doubt the awe board have woken up to how good the eagleford is and crashed the adi party.. so no reserve estimates releases to impede higher valuations for adi..

i would hope the reply by adi would put out as much as they can on reserve estimates as soon as possible and perhaps prove to the shareholders and market alike that the .40 price is way off the mark..

the shirts ore off now imho.. time for major holders, indeed all holders to hang tight and perhaps allow adi some opportunity to place some realistic valuations on the table

lets hope for some better days on that front..

i was always hoping for and aut-adi merge.. that would have made for a better strategy for awe to hang back and later on strike on the bigger stake in the eagleford..

imho awe lost the plot there, poor judgement and shocking tactics.. as now for it to get into aut will take more effort, surely its not going to be satisfied with a mere 10% of the eagleford?

 

[Bigukraine]

Correct me if im wrong, but didnt ADI recently go to 38c pre-morgan results.

Then if thats the case and Rancho about to produce, why would 40c seem at all attractive?
With the Hartleys valuation admitting its low and upgrades likely in july form 45c, and now yesterday saying itsa buy at 50c according to Agent, how is 40c ok.

Its a low ball offer. And you must be very pesimistic about drilling condensate and gas to think you cant easily surpass that without a takeover.

Its crazy the board didnt immediately advise rejection.

could be a great way to get your mkt cap up no cap raising ,no fees and the take over attempt and the trading over the .40c mark = risk free way for all parties involed to achive this. Would make things easier to borrow money to accelerate program and or untill monies come through from sales of product.....

 

[rock86]

if the ADI board was serious about the potential of this company, then they would have a reply this morning, which would read pretty much along the lines as "low ball crappy offer, put it where the sun don't shine AWE"

 

[cicak_kupang]

In the pasti have been anoyed by ADI management for what seemed to me as lack of sugarcane promotion, the way the reporting of things was done. In hind sight, management was doing the right thing, it was had for me to see it at the time. ADI management have had investors best interest at heart before and im sure that will be the case this time. (recent cap raise pixxed a few off, but the way they did it was the quickest way to raise funds without all the time delays that going to the public investors would have involved.
They are very well calculaed and worded announcements by ADI, always have been.
Some may see differently, thats fine. But im happily to have ADI management on my side of this ball game....

 

[Kremmen]

i was always hoping for and aut-adi merge.. that would have made for a better strategy for awe to hang back and later on strike on the bigger stake in the eagleford.

Interesting idea. One I've thought about before, too.

I'm surprised nothing had happened until now, takeover-wise. I reckon if I were running one of the big players in the area and saw that puny Aussie contingent in the middle of everyone, I'd have been making a takeover offer long before now. Some of those guys could swallow EKA and ADI with ease. AUT's a little bigger.

Anyhow, I don't understand why anyone is criticising AWE. There's been discussion about how little known this play is and how little self-publicity some (esp. ADI) have done. Well, my thanks to AWE. Sure, it's a low-ball offer. So what? We don't like it, we don't sell. There's no downside. It's given us higher prices, higher volume and publicity. That is a massive favour to all of us holding any of ADI/EKA/AUT.

 

[rock86]

Interesting idea. One I've thought about before, too.

I'm surprised nothing had happened until now, takeover-wise. I reckon if I were running one of the big players in the area and saw that puny Aussie contingent in the middle of everyone, I'd have been making a takeover offer long before now. Some of those guys could swallow EKA and ADI with ease. AUT's a little bigger.

Anyhow, I don't understand why anyone is criticising AWE. There's been discussion about how little known this play is and how little self-publicity some (esp. ADI) have done. Well, my thanks to AWE. Sure, it's a low-ball offer. So what? We don't like it, we don't sell. There's no downside. It's given us higher prices, higher volume and publicity. That is a massive favour to all of us holding any of ADI/EKA/AUT.

I agree Kremmen, I'm holding till I feel a price is justified, whether it be takeover or just general market. Let's look at it this way, I am 99.9% confident that AWE will not obtain the 90% of shares which will then allow them to fully own the company. However I do think that they will probably obtain 50.1% to have majority ownership and voting power control.

Some people have said this will be a bad thing, I thought this at first but having thought about it, if they do obtain 50.1% they will run it how they want, bad thing, I don't think so. AWE along with people still holding ADI are still going to want the SP to head north, them taking control may not be such a bad thing as they will want to add value for themselves.

All IMHO

 

[mick z]

Interesting idea. One I've thought about before, too.

I'm surprised nothing had happened until now, takeover-wise. I reckon if I were running one of the big players in the area and saw that puny Aussie contingent in the middle of everyone, I'd have been making a takeover offer long before now. Some of those guys could swallow EKA and ADI with ease. AUT's a little bigger.

Anyhow, I don't understand why anyone is criticising AWE. There's been discussion about how little known this play is and how little self-publicity some (esp. ADI) have done. Well, my thanks to AWE. Sure, it's a low-ball offer. So what? We don't like it, we don't sell. There's no downside. It's given us higher prices, higher volume and publicity. That is a massive favour to all of us holding any of ADI/EKA/AUT.

what about the poor buggers that bought above 40c.
dont they deserve some consideration kremmen, it wasnt long ago that the sp was 38c only a few weeks ago guess there happy to make a 2c premium.

self self self......give me a break

 

[Ramblin Round]

I don't foresee a lot of bleeding hearts of concern when millions of dollars are at stake. Some people view things as a good deal, some as a loss. That's the market, huh mick ?

 

[estseon]

Mick,

They're not going to get ADI for 40 cents a share, are they?

It's up to the ADI board to persuade Hilcorp to allow them to release information and projections and to make a good job of communicating the prospective value of the company to the market. But I somehow can't see AWE walking away - that would make them look soft and they must have had a good idea of what they might have to pay. I don't think that anyone is particularly pleased about this offer.

 

[rock86]

I wonder if we'll see a response from the board, there was an update from hartley's recommending only 50c price target (seen on HC from memory), and that's after Easley and Morgan Fair bit conservative, we should have our reserve upgrade soon also too, rancho out, all of this boosting our price target. 40c, or even the 41-41.5c SP atm, whoever's selling AWE has surely got what they want, alot of tree shaking.

How long does it take for the board to co-ordinate a response, I would hope there would be one today or definately before weeks end.

 

[Agentm]

I wonder if we'll see a response from the board, there was an update from hartley's recommending only 50c price target (seen on HC from memory), and that's after Easley and Morgan Fair bit conservative, we should have our reserve upgrade soon also too, rancho out, all of this boosting our price target. 40c, or even the 41-41.5c SP atm, whoever's selling AWE has surely got what they want, alot of tree shaking.

How long does it take for the board to co-ordinate a response, I would hope there would be one today or definately before weeks end.

rock, they have to do a lot of work in a very short period of time..

they will reply by late next week

i expect an interim reply

real rough calculations here.. excluding options etc..

AWE only have to gather up 113 mill shares to own the eagleford play and the yemen asset

paying .40 means they will spend $45 mill

ADI has around 10 mill in the bank

so $35 mill is what they spend

so they are getting 100% ownership over 2300 acres for $19,723 if you add no value for the yemen asset what so ever

please correct this if i am miscalculating here

 

[WRONG'UN]

Hi Agent
Would you mind explaining the link between 2300 acres and $19,723 - sorry, I can't see what you've done. The rest is very clear. Thanks.

 

[Sdajii]

Looking at the announcement from ADI this morning confirms what I was suspecting when I bought yesterday. AWE's aggressive action is going to force ADI to promote itself and point out in clear terms what the future holds. This will generate interest and attention from brokers and advisors, and we should quickly see a price increase (starting immediately after the late May announcement and continuing into June in my opinion). ADI has no choice but to make their presentation, which will be out in less than two weeks, something very impressive (which shouldn't be difficult given their situation). The price can only go up from here - it's not going below 40c, I'm just sad it has happened before I had time to get some more capital together to throw in. As long as it is in the low 40s I'll be buying whatever I can afford, as I just can't see imagine it being under 45c by early June (a 10% profit in two weeks is nice) and I can easily see the offer being upped to 50-60c, or the share price getting there in response to ADI's action, even without a higher offer from AWE. With an unconditional buy at 40c and a position which is worth more than 40c, it seems crazy not to be buying in at anything in the vicinity of 40c! Seriously, we're probably going to get a better offer, we know ADI is going to put out a very impressive "look how freaking awesome we are" announcement, and we virtually know that is going to push the price up, and the know there is a backstop of 40c! Crikey, talk about a low risk investment with high upside! If I was expecting to bring some capital in a bit sooner I'd be quietly hoping everyone would continue to miss this opportunity for a bit longer. As it is, the sooner people start buying, the more chance we have of a higher offer from AWE.

With most of my money in ADI and EKA at the moment, the tipping competition leaderboard is looking very pretty this month!