ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Hatchy]

The Board of Adelphi Energy Limited (“Adelphi”) (ASX:ADI) acknowledges the receipt of an unsolicited on-market takeover offer from AWE Limited (“AWE”).

The Board of Adelphi advises its shareholders should TAKE NO ACTION and await Adelphi’s further advice after it has properly considered the offer in consultation with its advisors, Hartleys Limited




Any questions, we're to call ADI

 

[lemontree]

On the same theme I am surprised and bit suspicious at the way ADI shares have actually fallen over the past week or so. Given the drilling results a realistic expectation is that there would have been net buying pressure to push the shares to the low/mid 30's or higher. But they have actually fallen - and coincidentally there is now a takeover over bid theoretically based around a low SP of 28 cents.

I believe the SP was pushed back to 26c then rising again to 28c because of the recent capital raising. Institutions and sophisticated investors were able to buy ADI shares at 25c, so they were unloading like crazy while making a profit. Was a good time to buy in at 26 - 28c

 

[solomon]

Look at it another way.

It is obviously not a serious offer. You would have to be a goon to take it. So it looks like it puts a floor under the price for the next 6 weeks, which could be a very good thing.

PS I have not held for 2 years and wish i was.

 

[rock86]

I'm not as big as a holder as most on this forum, but bought in at a 7c average and still have been holding for less then a year. I have a very good profit at the moment (for me) and the tax implications would ruin my profit, was at least waiting for $1 which would have seen me holding for 1+ years and in a much better tax position.

Go and get you know what AWE, 40c is a JOKE

 

[adobee]

SO who is buying at 41c ?????
Its not me ... I can believe I sold out half my small holding last week to use the cash for a trade in AKM as I thought not much would be happening for a couple of weeks !!

 

[Agentm]

so is awe chasing down the aut share next?

based on the valuations they offer for adi the current aut price is a steal..

minimum price 100 cents for aut..

 

[philly]

There are some questions that need answering:

- Why did they just raise 5m?

- How many shares do AWE need to obtain a controlling stake?

- How many of these potential shares that are trying to be obtained by AWE are owned by directors?

- How many are owned by us? IMO a tally should be started today that illustrates the collective percentage of shares held by ASF and Hotcopper users to give all holders an indication if their shareholding will make a difference to the prospect of AWE gaining a controlling stake. I'm happy to divulge my percentage holding, but would like to see others support this idea first.

GDAF
ADI has 147,271 380 shares on issue
AWE needs 50.1% = 73,782,962 shares to gain a controlling stake
As at 10.00am this morning AWE has 57,200,533
AWE needs another 16, 582, 429 shares
This isn't a lot as the top 20 shareholders [As at 23 April 2010] hold as follows:
Rank Shareholder Total Units
1 ARC Energy Limited 47,864,000
2 Mr Alexander Forcke 3,000,000
3 ANZ Nominees Limited <Cash Income A/C> 1,918,633
4 D J W & J D Allman S/F A/C 1,750,000
5 Riley Group 1,742,779
6 Streitberg Family 1,705,000
7 Mrs Sharon Teresa Lydeamore 1,580,000
8 Mr Leigh David Kalazich 1,571,563
9 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 1,377,276
10 Palethorpe Super Fund A/C 1,300,000
11 Chatterton Family Super A/C 1,252,446
12 Major Family A/C 1,114,219
13 Windsor Hotel A/C 1,000,000
14 Mr Ashok Verma 1,000,000
15 Mr Thomas Brian Cannon 980,000
16 Ms Allison Wilkinson 930,000
17 Visser Super Fund A/C 890,000
18 J J N A Pty Ltd 847,612
19 Major Family S/F A/C 836,400
20 PJ Nagle S/F A/C 824,000
TOTAL 73,483,928

Not sure if any of these holders belong to ASF or Hotcopper

IMHO the sophisticated investors from the recent CR are all likely sellers
buy at .25 sell at .40 represents a 60% profit in less than a month

As at 2.00pm today just over 9 million ADI shares have been traded
Apart from AWE who would be buying at .40+ ?

We need a white knight HILCORP??
I am holding ADI and not selling

 

[Sdajii]

I bought in a few months ago just looking for a quite profit, but because I was holding I had a closer look, and I decided that rather than the original plan of selling out when things went nice I wanted to stay in - this thing is just too good. On the day I bought, I'd have expected that if I could sell out for 40c in May I'd be thrilled to do so, but now I wouldn't be happy being forced to sell at twice that. I'm glad to see the trading price has stayed above 40c today, and hope these opportunists get nothing.

Let's hope the holders understand what they have and choose to hang on to it rather than give in to the fear which could rob them of so much down the track. Good on the guys picking up shares for over 40c today, and mopping up what is being sold by the frightened, desperate or uninformed holders. I hope they choose to hang on to what they have.

 

[bazollie]

A very Opportunistic Offer which is not in the interests of the Long Term Holders of this stock. I have been holding and accumulating for a fair while and given the latest drilling results, gives AWE the chance to snare cheaply and then turn their 40 cents into a SP that could reach $1.50 given the Research recently from Hartleys.

I for one will not be selling at this price. Look at the big picture, in 3-6 months time with some more good news, we will be kicking ourselves if we sell now!!

Not fair AWE , look after the long term holders and we can all get something out of this!!
All in IMHO and DYOR.

Regards
bazollie

 

[rock86]

I am confident they will not even get close to 90%, unless they come up with a much higher bid. But I am worried because I think that they will end up being the majority shareholder at over 50.1% which in any case is just as bad.

 

[Kremmen]

ADI has 147,271 380 shares on issue
AWE needs 50.1% = 73,782,962 shares to gain a controlling stake
As at 10.00am this morning AWE has 57,200,533
[ ... ]
As at 2.00pm today just over 9 million ADI shares have been traded
Apart from AWE who would be buying at .40+ ?

I'm not sure the 50.1% is relevant to anything. AWE has an order on the board for 112,070,847 at 40c.

Also, all the ADI shares traded today have been between 40.5c and 42c, so those 9M+ shares have not gone to the AWE order. I think the answer to your question is obvious: Buying above 40c is by those who believe that AWE (or someone else) will offer more.

BTW, I'm surprised that takeovers have been pretty much ignored here. Did you guys really think we'd all be sitting here in 10 years time with ADI shares at $4 or whatever? If there's one thing I'd have bet on more than the success of the JVPs, it's that we'd be gobbled up by takeovers.

 

[Simon29]

Whilst it is disappointing, it's not entirely surprising. What happens to those of us who don't sell our shares if AWE get a controlling interest (50.1%+)? I know I won't be selling at anything near these prices.

 

[potchip]

I actually don't understand why people are buying above the 40c expecting higher bids for ADI, unless driven by defensive mechanism. You would think the best alternative for non-holders is actually to invest in the other JVP partners? If I was a holder, I would not sell.

 

[gdaf]

so, did anybody sell their shares today?

...................................................................................................................................

 

[rock86]

so, did anybody sell their shares today?

...................................................................................................................................

at these prices, it's just a kick in the crotch to ADI holders, so no I definately did not and will not be selling at these prices.

Double it and a little, maybe then I would start thinking, and still then, there is still probably to much upside.

As a previous poster has asked, what will happen to us shareholders still holding if AWE get 50.1%

 

[luap77]

No, but wondering what happens if you don't sell your shares and just keep holding? Is there any scenario where you would lose out (as long as the sp remains above 40c)?

 

[Sdajii]

I actually don't understand why people are buying above the 40c expecting higher bids for ADI, unless driven by defensive mechanism. You would think the best alternative for non-holders is actually to invest in the other JVP partners? If I was a holder, I would not sell.

You don't understand why? If someone says "This thing is so awesome I want to buy the whole lot for 40c" it is a very strong indication that it is actually worth more than 40c. We were all saying that ADI (and EKA, AUT) was severely undervalued for quite some time. Here is a good demonstration of someone demonstrating that by putting their large amount of money where their large mouth is. Very likely there will be plenty of people thinking "Wow, if I buy in now, the worst that I can do is sell out for 40c in early June!" and also, a lot of people thinking "Wow, if the first offer is 40c and they're making it at a time when people are in panic, at some point in the next six weeks it's sure to go higher". Let's face it, we have a 40c buffer for the next six weeks! If it goes up, great, if it goes down, well, it ain't going too far down! Talk about a low risk punt! 50-60c is easy to imagine seeing in the next six weeks, but 40c is an almost guaranteed minimum. I through in the last of my available funds at 41c at 4.10pm. Fingers crossed in six weeks I'll be choosing to hold while looking at a SP of around 50c+. If I manage to save a little more over the next month or two I may well be putting that in as well.

With the bulk of my funds in EKA, ADI and AUT, today was a very nice day! My main sadness is that I didn't have time to buy more before someone set the rocket off.

The cherry on the cake is that I have ADI in the tipping competition this month!

 

[potchip]

The question is why buy in ADI when
1. there's a minimum price (which can be a good thing)
2. there's a cost for the company to respond to the 'open bid'
3. there's a potential ceiling, as in how much the bidder is willing to go
4. uncertaining due to controlling stake threshold and implications


when other JVP partners EKA/AUT
1. free carried on the information ADI has to supply
2. still enjoys the same 'bluesky' scenario until a bidder shows up

 

[Sdajii]

The question is why buy in ADI when
1. there's a minimum price (which can be a good thing)
2. there's a cost for the company to respond to the 'open bid'
3. there's a potential ceiling, as in how much the bidder is willing to go
4. uncertaining due to controlling stake threshold and implications


when other JVP partners EKA/AUT
1. free carried on the information ADI has to supply
2. still enjoys the same 'bluesky' scenario until a bidder shows up

In the long term, sure, you might be right, you might not, it's hard to say. In the short term, buying in at 40.5-42c or so carries almost no risk. Either ADI goes up and you are laughing, or it goes down and you hit the 40c level. In the short term you basically can not lose. You have a guaranteed 40c stop loss until July, and the potential for all three companies to shoot up to well above their current positions.

If you want safety at the moment, ADI is offering a great deal courtesy of AWE. We could get positive news at any time, which will send the price up. In that case you can hold or sell as you see fit. If we get no news you're safe, and can either hold, or sell out at 40c for little to no loss - plenty of potential earnings with a big safety net. If you paid 20c for EKA today you might see it at 14c tomorrow, and it's a case of "too bad". I can see plenty of very obvious reasons to buy ADI at the moment, even if you don't particularly care about the company. Even without news, ADI could easily top 50c before July, and might have done it even without AWE's hostile attempt. They've already been close to 40c and the situation is better now than it was then. If it wasn't for the recent global panic they'd have been well over 40c by now, and let's face it, oil is a precious resource which isn't going to become worthless in a hurry, regardless of whatever economic hiccups we might see along the way.

If you are looking at the longer term, increasing your holdings now means AWE doesn't get what they want, and will consider a higher offer, which will push the SP up again. There's just so much to gain and with nothing to lose.

For me, the obvious thing is that you have a 40c safety net and a potential to hit 50-60c. Why would you not buy in the low 40s?

 

[condog]

Why would they offer??

Because they want to benefit from the future profit and unlocked value.

Its imo too cheap, but thats only an opinion.

dont forget The Hartleys valuation at 45c which we all regarded as tooo conservative prior to Morgan results ???

Seems too cheap imo. And for big holder it may trigger unwanted CGT.