ADI - Adelphi Energy

[Agentm]

the ship was watertight this time for adi..i noticed the eka share price and volumes,,they definately got on board early there..

i know i will be going through the numbers over and over.. and i am in a lot of respects greatful the gdn pump and dump has not repeated so far on this stock..

the market puts a low value on the show.. but we are really only a little way in on the primary,,


there is no volumes, just quiet usual trade..


for me, apraising everything i know on sugarloaf and adi, and after seeing the numbers so far i am picking that anyone who is on this stock is in for a massive windfall..

there will ba many many doubters throughout the next few months.. but patience and bit of guts and you will be rewarded..

my gut feeling is that their is a major new field is on the horizon,, and its smack in the middle of texas..

hope i am right again..

dyor research on thios stock guys,, i am seriously thinking its now the best value stock out today..

 

[Broadside]

Hi guys, have copied this from a post at HC regarding gas units. I am not an oiler or profess to understanding the terminology used but the number of units that ADI have compared to GDN is very different and GDB is getting hammered. I know they have a nice solid 24m but the units are vastly different. I hold both, here's the post, interested in your thoughts.



Hmmmmm ADI
from todays ann: why hasnt it retraced 100%

ADI has what? 20% interest in the well.

Total gas readings peaked at 295 units from a background of about 30 units, and chromatography
indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2), propane (C3) and
trace butane (C4).

from what i recall GDN has readings

Gas (methane and ethane with trace propane) was present at levels of up to 2,300 units.
Connection gas ranges from 2,000 to 3,300 units.
Background gas has increased 40-fold to consistent levels of 500-900 units.
Trip gas ranges up to 3,520 units.
All gas levels are highly significant.

mate this is absolutely mental....i hold



Fortune favours the brave.

I'd be interested in comments too, 3% gas but is this significant in itself or more of a pointer towards what may lie below?

 

[Agentm]

i agree broadside..

3% is a trickle.. and there is a long way to drill..

i think the understandings they drew on the hosston sands has been confirmed..

they expected the sands to bee a hyrocarbon pathway..

they expected the fault to be a cause for the sands to be hydrocarbon rich..
they know the seal was intact, as they are getting gas shows..

so what you se in the seismics is what they are seeing in the logs.. gas..

firrst find is 3%ish

now i dont expect the gas show to be the last.. my expectations are for the already confrimed gas shows to increase, in size and volume..


with 5% porosity and possible fracing they predicted 800 BCF...

currently they are just into the sands and we have what they expected,,

i cant believe the one show is all there is.. i am convinced theywouldnt drill on a play that small,, i believe the plays they are drilling for are yet to come..

 

[Broadside]

it is very encouraging to encounter gas at the top of the formation with 95% of the target still to come

 

[Agentm]

usually dont post other peoples posts,, but this is a good point to consider..

Subjectre: adi aut eka news Stock Code ADI - ADELPHI ENERGY LIMITED
Posted 09/11/06 14:18 Posted by oilie

In evaluating gas shows, which are controlled to a great extent by the weight of the mud in the hole, the important thing to examine is the level of the peak against what is termed "background" gas. In this case ADI has reported an increase in gas levels in the mud of about ten times background which is significant. Unfortunately they did not report the lithology associated with the gas show or whether there was an increase in drilling rate which is an indicator of porosity in the reservoir.
It is hard therefore to properly evaluate the significance of the announced shows

i hope ollie doesnt mind the repost,, but its important to think about how far they are down and what they can and cant accurately measure..

i believe the price rise so far is genuine,, no ramping (besides me, the obvious one).. but i have to say i am extremely pleased today..

the fact that all the condtions for the gas to be present are now proven.. now its time to drill away into the play and get as much info about the sands as they can..

if the plays are there.. this becomes a massive undertaking,, you need the biggest rigs around to drill this,, and somehow i feel the likes of texas crude can deliver on that score,, if we were adi on its own i feel the probability of infistructure assistance and development wells availability may be on a different catagory.. mr fluor is mr action.. i am certain he could muster what is needed to make this potential new field play into a major success..IMHO

we have to expect the daily reports are now how we get the news..

obviously the news comes through early, and if you in perth,, if you see the lights on in ADI offices nice and early then you know we are in for a great day!!

the only sour note today was the 400,000 break away trade this morning at EKA.. for me that didnt make me confident of the directors there..

my money is on hosston sands,, last week i was happy for the secondaries getting me $1.20... now i get the feeling we are in different territory..

do you maths if your selling at the moment.. theres a lot hidden in the logs and a lot left off the reports.. look at other indications of investors jumping off.. so far i think the ship is intact and sailing away at a great pace..

 

[Broadside]

with regard to breakaway on EKA I posted this on SS Agent M:

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"if someone heard news ahead of an announcement they would buy all the partners, not just EKA...EKA is illiquid so would be easier to get into one of the others without impacting share price

so I think EKA is innocent, it was just ordinary buying, don't forget they are spudding a prospective Turkish field in a week or so

Sugarloaf partners don't leak in contrast to GDN....GDN leaked at 30 cents, ran over a buck and has been relentless sold down this week, then today they disappoint with their announcement...expectations too high for too many."

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

my point is, if an insider heard news he would buy into whatever stock had the best exposure and would impact the price the least. I think it was buying into EKA because spud of Turkey well is in "early November" which could be any day now.

 

[Agentm]

what i found interesting was the price jump,, which after the announcement sorta stayed,, then adi and AUT caught up,, 400,000 shares before and only 200,000 since.. someone really wanted to get on board..


i thought the volume was mega compared to the previous days.. anyways,, its over and they may make some good gains..

it was noticed by homer first,, then suddenly the halts and then the release.. all conjecture and probably way off by me... i still feel the differences if the SP is not equivilent to the percentage each partner has in the field,, my opinion eka is way over the odds,, maybe i see it wrong.. but adi and AUT have basically nearly double the percentage on the fields and plays.. yet their prices stand closer together than what i can understand??

my thoughts would be if AUT ADi is 68.. then EKA would be half plus a few cents..?? perhaps .36 or .38...

there are a swag of options on eka and AUT.. i thought adi had the best exposure in the shares vs value stakes?? just an observation,, i dont know the hard facts yet as i have not done the maths.. but ball park i see eka has achieved a far greater position, and increase in value on the growth stakes than ADI and AUT so far....

any idea how to calculate this easier??? i saw a broker report a while ago,, gave ratios..

 

[Broadside]

Strachan Corporate valuation matrix (from report on Adelphi website)

Company EquityWI Current Price Discovery Value cps Leverage% Risk adj Value
cps

ADI 20.0% 31 619 1996% 88
AUT 20.0% 50 342 683% 49
EKA 12.5% 25 408 1633% 58

so ADi leverage (when it was 31 cents) about 20 fold
EKA (when 25 cents) 16 fold

since then both companies have doubled (more or less)

 

[nioka]

There is still a long way to go yet, over 2600ft. They went 116ft in the last 24 hours. They may not even make it by the end of the month. It should be a good christmas present but don't start spending the profit yet.

 

[Agentm]

td is not determined, its a hypothetical..

with the seismic out the snds could be 1000' further down or more.. they will drill until they have either passed through the entire sands or best case senario they will drill until they are forced to stop..

dont wish for td.. as its likely to mean the well is not productive enough and needs to be fraced as the porosity isnt up to speed..

my wish is for massive pressure kicks and a drilling halt..

if the seismics are correct, i cant see them making it through..

today was the start of the news,, look at the report and notice they say "gas indications!!" not gas shows or gas plays as in austin..

so what does it mean??? it means they are on the hosston sands and its gas rich,, now they are onto the bigger plays.. i expect nothing else except reports of bigger and bigger plays,, they have yet to be incorrect on anything they stated they were looking for,, so from today on i am begining to believe the hosston play is more than just a pipe dream.. its starting to dawn on me that these guys were right about hosston too...

hold on nioka.. this is the first day of the hosston sands and we have already got what they expected.. now to drill away and confirm whats showing there in the seismics,, if they drill into what i see there, then we are about to become part of a company forming play.. and thats purely imho..!!

yesterday i dreamed of austin,,, now i know the austin is safe,, and theis hosston play is becoming a reality.. very exciting stuff

lets see how the next report reads.. i feel its going to be everything they expected..

 

[fflintoff]

td is not determined, its a hypothetical..

with the seismic out the snds could be 1000' further down or more.. they will drill until they have either passed through the entire sands or best case senario they will drill until they are forced to stop..

dont wish for td.. as its likely to mean the well is not productive enough and needs to be fraced as the porosity isnt up to speed..

my wish is for massive pressure kicks and a drilling halt..

if the seismics are correct, i cant see them making it through..

today was the start of the news,, look at the report and notice they say "gas indications!!" not gas shows or gas plays as in austin..

so what does it mean??? it means they are on the hosston sands and its gas rich,, now they are onto the bigger plays.. i expect nothing else except reports of bigger and bigger plays,, they have yet to be incorrect on anything they stated they were looking for,, so from today on i am begining to believe the hosston play is more than just a pipe dream.. its starting to dawn on me that these guys were right about hosston too...

hold on nioka.. this is the first day of the hosston sands and we have already got what they expected.. now to drill away and confirm whats showing there in the seismics,, if they drill into what i see there, then we are about to become part of a company forming play.. and thats purely imho..!!

yesterday i dreamed of austin,,, now i know the austin is safe,, and theis hosston play is becoming a reality.. very exciting stuff

lets see how the next report reads.. i feel its going to be everything they expected..

----------------------------
Neither ADI nor AUT regarded the Ann as Price Sensitive though EDA did as it happens. In fact we haven ´t had a PS Drilling update since Sligo

 

[cicak_kupang]

This has been a fantastic start to the HS. Have been watching the ARQ sp, no movement yet. Like someone mentioned above, ARQ with a 25% stake in ADI, is a great way into the delites on offer from SL. May not see impact on ARQ sp till full wire line loggiung done and reported at end of drilling. So with ARQ at $1.50, it prob represents a good buy too..
Lets see what the comming weeks bring.......

 

[fflintoff]

It'll be interesting to see what eme is doing tonight inLondon.Cheers

-----------------------------------------------------------------
EME currently up 30%. Not too shabby.

EME EMPYREAN ENERGY PLC ORD 0.2P


EMPYREAN | Currency GBX
All data delayed by at least 15 minutes

As at 09-Nov-2006 11:27:57
64.000 +14.50 +29.29%

 

[stewart3250]

eme finished up approx 22%, all looking very good, hope for more news tonight, I like the fact we have just entered Hosston and struck gas.

AgentM, would like to ask you a few questions, will leave my email below, to do with eme and Adelphi but probably best i dont post on here, I have posted before and from UK.

simstew@btinternet.com

 

[Broadside]

more gas

Sugarloaf-1 Gas Indications During Drilling Continue
Adelphi Energy Limited advises that at 6am Texas time on 9 November 2006, the Sugarloaf-1 exploration well was drilling ahead at 18,476 feet (5,633 metres).
Continuing gas indications over an aggregate of 70 feet (21 metres) were obtained while drilling between 18,320 feet and 18,445 feet. Total gas readings peaked at 326 units from a background of about 40 units and chromatography indicates the gas consists dominantly of methane (C1), with ethane (C2) and propane (C3).
The economic significance of these gas indications will not be known until wire-line logs, programmed to be run after the well has reached total depth, have been interpreted and flow testing, if warranted, has been evaluated.
Drilling is continuing towards proposed total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres).
Participants in the Sugarloaf-1 well are:
Adelphi Energy Texas, Inc. 20.0%
Texas Crude Energy Inc (Operator) et al 41.5%
Aurora Oil and Gas Ltd 20.0%
Eureka Energy Ltd 12.5%
Empyrean Energy plc 6.0%
For further information please contact Chris Hodge or Alex Forcke on 08-9263 4600 or info@adelphienergy.com.au
Yours faithfully

 

[nioka]

It'll be interesting to see what eme is doing tonight inLondon.Cheers

A google search on empyrean energy will get you the trading results ( with a 20 min delay). I usually check them out each night.

 

[Agentm]

all good news!!


keep buying if you can,, the stock is dirt cheap now for what they are finding!!
pressure is increasing each day!!


nice..

 

[Agentm]

its hard to give yourself a reason to sell when potentially the shares are worth $6 at 800 BCF and if its 1.5 TCF which is the lowest the sands can produce at,, then its potentially $12..

dont expect the shares are going to trade at .30 ever again..

 

[Agentm]

i dont see any reason why the reports wont be more or less daily, and the reports may contain much the same if not way more than these two initial shows..look at the seismics and you really can imagine they will suudenly dry up.. what is shown there has been found exactly by texas crude as expected..

i cant fortell the future of sugarloaf,, but i look everyday for the evidence to present itself to doubt the wells claims.. i always research and check..

i cant discount the shows, i cant look at it any other way except to say that these guys have delivered.. its the real deal.. there is ample evidence to state that the hosston sands are gas rich,, and its starting to become evident that the initial primary is a reality.. as they drill through it they will get better and better readings i presume.. and hope!!

anyone selling today?

 

[HOMER J]

Hi Agentm, have been out all mornig and just saw the good news. your right in saying that so far texas crude have been spot on with everything, and with gas shows at the top of hosston i certainly wont be selling any of mine until they tell us exactly what is there (including the secondaries). Usually the weekends fly but this one might drag on a little bring on monday!

cheers