Ok,
Hands up who's worried where the share price is headed?
I'm included in that pack.
I went for all I could plus more in the issue, now i've seen near on a 50% decline since that, and lacklustre drilling.
I thought the JV would have more brains behind what they're doing. They make a stupid mistake of going too deep on kennedy - they drill apparently correctly with loads of flares in Kowalik and yet get nothing, and now we're faced with them targeting yet another area of chalk. It's not as if they're learning off Kowalik either - agentm correct me if i'm wrong, but isn't it a different chalk structure being targeted with Weston?
So the only lesson the JV has learnt is that we need a pilot hole - but what about what really matters in getting the barrels out of the ground?
It took years to get CSG out of the ground in a profitable way here in QLD, we could be in for the same with these Chalks over in Texas I think - and that's at a time when Cash is King and money is getting tighter day by day, not when people could throw money into a project like 3 years ago.
Hold on tight boys, you're gonna get scared with this ride!
its all matter of perspective imho..
i think kennedy is fine myself, and i agree with the jvp to frac it thoroughly in the future..
easy to have hindsight and be critical of operators, but with oil wells, you have to accept things go wrong, weston can have any of a number of things go wrong and you can lose the well..
kowalik has about 1500 feet of connectivity with a frac operation or acid job in the future. again its fine, it shows me two zones are definately active and have hydrocarbons..
now weston imho is chasing the baker play, and i am not convinced kowalik and baker are the same plays myself, and its only my own theory hatchy, its not been announced that way at all from what i see.
the drilling goes where the drilling goes, things happen all the time, COP have sidetracked kunde 3 twice and baker 1 twice and could not complete either lateral fully.. kowalik has at least achieved a long lateral completion and found 1500 foot of formation thats producing. i am excited about it, but others are not.. kunde 3 only has 900 foot over a similar length, cost easily two to three times kowalik and if you understand where the well is, and whats been done to it, i think kunde 3 is worth every cent invested in it, and concoco have got ambitions to frac it next month, and if that works, drill out the end and complete a further 1500 feet of well..
so what you need to appreciate hatchy is its very difficult, very unsure and its not like drilling a straight line, that never happens, and finding what your after, and staying in that formation is one hell of a skill indeed..
as the jvp say, each completion teaches them more, weston has the benefit of the other completions to utilise.
no guarantees here hatchy, just good old fashioned high risk high reward exploration..
imho you need to lower the expectations of exploration wells and understand how fortunate the jvp is to have kenendy still on a future plan, despite the formation really not responding to fracture stimulation as yet, but imho its not over yet, only a very small part oft the well has been experimented on thus far. and kowlik in early days and still likely to be worked further, no P&A here on those two wells..
the jvp have proven hydrocarbons in two regions now, time to get smart and work these wells further, 1500 feet in kowalik to work with and an entire lateral in kennedy to work with..
early days, real early days hatchy..