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ADI - Adelphi Energy

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nice one maverick..:)

its a different feel out there now..

ADI used to be such a quiet and sedate little stock.. now the daytraders are in the picture its very flighty..

I look at the GDN announcements and think wow.. if only the texas boys would announce like that.. its a different state and definately a different approach,, in texas you tell everyone nothing,, as anyone can come in and spoil the show..

up till now we have had not one announcement of gas shows in the secondaries on anything other than in the weekly..

somehow i feel the same approach will be done in this coming report..
if they were to change their approach then it would be a shock to me as i feel their intent is to keep everything low key through out the entire drill.. many land owners who have not signed up may not and probably wont until the drill is completed.. so while they are being cohersed i image the approach taken so far is pretty well what we will get through out...

i would love the fan fare that gdn has done with their secondary shows, but so far the form of these guys is to say less and less every day..

i am only in it for the secondaries in any case.. and the new tiaton well is part of my plan.. so whether hosston is a success or not i already am confident we are way short of real value of the austin and sligo plays..

i see yemen is now the despised terrorist place on the planet.. a new nation to vilify for the media... lets hope they dont offend too much as oilsearch and adi and ARQ have some important work there ahead..
 
maverick11 said:
arghh!! what is going on? Talk about stressful!
Click to expand...
Look at it this way 125,000 sold in one sale at 12.15. It means that someone was prepared to BUY that many in one hit. This is what happens when day traders have stop loss orders in. Nothing to do with sugarloaf.
 
there is volume out there as the price falls... so plenty are willing to get in on the price,, maybe daytraders losing their nerves as investors arrive in?

so its all about what your in for,, if your in for sugarloaf then you wouldnt sell,, if your in for small gains and small profits i guess you sell whenever you feel like it and for whatever reasons you are in it for...
 
Better get use to it cause I would say another few weeks to drill the hosston all going ok and then some time after that for the result from production testing. I see it as a chance to take advantage of the impatient actually.....
 
So would you consider this a good buy at these prices?

Given the recent interest, and the way the sp has moved over the last few days I tend to think so but intra day chart looks like it's got further to drop. *note, I aint no chartist :)

May wait a little longer.
 
ALFguy said:
So would you consider this a good buy at these prices?

Given the recent interest, and the way the sp has moved over the last few days I tend to think so but intra day chart looks like it's got further to drop. *note, I aint no chartist :)

May wait a little longer.
Click to expand...
This is no time to think charts. This is not a trend it is asudden change. There is a difference.
 
AUTs activity statement dated the 30th (yesterday) but just released today says:

The primary Hosston target is expected to be reached within the next few days and the total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) in mid November.

so at the time of writing they probably werent even into hosston yet...
i guess well find out more tomorrow.....
 
i have to join in the conspiracy theory here...

AUT said in last weeks report it was just above the hosston sands..

yesterday it makes the same statement..

either the seismics were wrong and the hosston sands are deeper

or the drilling has been complicated and delayed with unforseen events..

or they are just cracking themselves up watching us make assumptions about whats going on and decided to say they hadnt reached the primary yet!!

think about why they are posting these reports.. there is no reason to other than to semi advise the market about whats going on.. and to save the share price from too big a collapse.. ADI did theirs to save themselves on friday re the please explain... EKA has done theirs,, and today AUT has put it out there, and made it very clear that they have not reached the primaries!!!!!

i kinda hope those selling today arent kicking themselves, if you punting they are in the primaries, getting nervous and selling then maybe you need to study the reports a little before you bail.. looks like hosston is still to come...

i am curious about the delay if AUT is reporting correctly
 
yes the are probably just playing mindgames and enjoying it :) ADI back to 60c. wonder if well see buying in the morning especially if GDN has a well needed retrace....
 
Agentm said:
i have to join in the conspiracy theory here...

AUT said in last weeks report it was just above the hosston sands..

yesterday it makes the same statement..

either the seismics were wrong and the hosston sands are deeper

or the drilling has been complicated and delayed with unforseen events..

or they are just cracking themselves up watching us make assumptions about whats going on and decided to say they hadnt reached the primary yet!!



i am curious about the delay if AUT is reporting correctly
Click to expand...
The report talks about sugarloaf as at October 25th.
 
the statement on page 1 is backed up on page 3



SUGARLOAF PROSPECT, GULF COAST, TEXAS (AUT Working Interest 20%)

[font=Arial,Arial]Aurora Oil & Gas has a 20% interest in the large Sugarloaf Prospect, which has the potential to host several trillion cubic feet of gas.

The Sugarloaf Prospect is a world class exploration prospect. It is a robust four-way dip closure covering about 80 square kilometres at 5,200m depth, which makes it one of the largest undrilled structures in the onshore US. The primary target reservoirs are thick sands of the Cretaceous age Hosston Formation which are major producers elsewhere in the Gulf Coast region. Based on seismic data and an offset well the top of the Hosston Formation is anticipated to be encountered at a depth of approximately 5,335m (17,500 feet). The primary target is expected to consist of approximately 1,220m (4,000 feet) of inter-bedded sandstones and shales with the potential for multiple prospective intervals.

The initial well to test this structure is currently being drilled with a proposed Total Depth of 6,400m (21,000 feet). As of 25 October 2006, the well had been drilled to a depth of 5,317m (17,440 feet). During drilling gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations. Interpretation of logs indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling. While we consider that the logs are encouraging, the commercial significance of log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed.

The primary Hosston target is expected to be reached in the next few days and the total depth of 21,000 feet (6,400 metres) in mid November.
​
[/font]

the report is dated yesterday...


depends on how you want to read it..

i see it twice and read it as above..

what do you think?? am i reading it wrong.. believe me,, i dont knwo what to make of it,, but if its right then it sure makes for interesting reading tomorrow
 
These reports often take a few days to prepare and I often find they are a little behind .I think this is what is happening here. Tomorrow should be up to date.
 
thats how i got caught out too, but the second paragraph reads:

The initial well to test this structure is currently being drilled with a proposed Total Depth of 6,400m (21,000 feet). As of 25 October 2006, the well had been drilled to a depth of 5,317m (17,440 feet). During drilling gas shows were encountered in a secondary target – one of the Cretaceous aged carbonate formations. Interpretation of logs indicates a 92 feet (28 metres) zone of possible gas pay corresponding with the zone of gas shows obtained during drilling. While we consider that the logs are encouraging, the commercial significance of log-interpreted possible pay can only be assessed by flow testing. Flow testing of the zone is not programmed at this time but will be considered after the well has been drilled to total depth and the primary target assessed
 
thanks for that.. i read it as a seperate paragraph, and assumed it meant a more recent update...

as it was a first quarter update i figured they were updating not rehashing
 
If they are drilling the hosston zone I think they would have only just entered it. In any case 4000ft of zone will take more then a day of drilling and they could have a massive find anywhere in that 4000ft. I say buy the stock your happy to hold and then go take a holiday for a few weeks if this is stressing you out.
 
this is a world class well.. this in my opinion is no small wildcat dream chasing stunt..

all parts of the drill are done with professionalism,, they case away, they do extensive wireline logging early.. they keep very discrete and the main primary is now on the horizon...

the amount of research and years that has taken this project to today is pretty extensive.. its not like a wilcatter in turkey that you get on board in the last three weeks.. its a genuine and massive play that needs to be planned and drilled carefully and professionally with attention to detail..

the day to day fluctuations are irrelevant to the outcome.. ADI has planned forward wells,, AUT and EKA have no plans.. my guess is that AUT and EKA have not the cash reserves or the heart to tell their shareholders of the potential of the secondaries and the very real probability of further development wells being on the horizon..

tomorrow will give everyone the news they are looking for.. as in where they are and how well its going..
 
EKA currently have $3.073 million minus the cost of the Bismil project. the can raise up to another $1.25 million in the current share purchase plan.
 
well then if it enough to cover further small exploritory rigs then they are fine i guess.. not much dilution to come there.. at 12% diluting to under 10% after the landowners take their bit,, the more anyone dilutes from here on is going to change the cents per share value,, and if hosston hits it doesnt matter,, but if only secondaries are successful then it can add up a little and hurt all three as the penny counters find the real value..
 

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