ADI - Adelphi Energy

looking at kunde 1, the condensate is sure making up for any low yield in the gas,,

it generates 3 times more revenue in condensate compared to gas..

cant wait to see what the kunde 3 well delivers!

Well hope the results are soon as ADI are back to 32 cents. I bought in at 30 cents 18 months ago and it is very disappointing to see it almost back there. Luckily I have traded ADI along the way so have made some money on them. The clock is a ticking but cant see anything from Kennedy soon unfortunately. Still a strong believer in the story but the constant waiting and missed dates is very concerning especially when there is nothing the JVPs can do about it.

Cheers.

i agree blues..

if the frac was done on kunde 3 before christmas, then the announcements now would be around what production kunde 3 achieved and the workover rig would be on site at kennedy, doing some works like bond logs and waiting for the frac crew to arrive imho.. the sp would not have tanked like it has on very minimal turnover.. $169,000 in turnover this year and the sp has dropped from .40 to .32. thats not much turnover imho.. support seems to be maintained in the share, but the price isnt as the volatility of the markets are crunching the expolorers..

what didnt happen before christmas is the reason why we are not fracing kennedy right now.. the kunde 3 well was unable to be fraced, and the solution is at hand, they are putting in a smaller casing and then fracing the well. it cant be too long from now. even conoco could not be keen to see any delays. they have acreages running out of time also, and rigs are not easy to get on short notice!!. baker is also going to be put on production at any time imho, and we still have no clue on kunde 2, but its not been mentioned in any announcements so i assume they are not fracing it yet..

cant see it taking too much longer, if they dont succeed in fracing, which i doubt, then they can always flow it as it is.. but imho they really want to get the best they can from the formation, and will achieve that once they can deliver more psi to the formation in the casing than the formation is throwing back at the well.. if you think about it, the formation must be delivering some amazing pressures in the well.. it kind of wets the appetite as to what these wells will deliver, and what sort of psi they dial up to once they are fraced..

look at the share prices of all the jvp's and many other shares, and although its not exactly as one would like, i am not at all concerned with my large holdings in this one, i am waiting for the outcome, which will surface in the very near future.. imho the frac is getting closer by the day and i cannot see it taking weeks. we are all aware that time is running short and the entire project cant just sit and wait, its real close and the share market volatility and the small parcels selling for next to nothing is just a part of the cycle right now..

i understand how its frustrated a lot of holders, but one view is that the things learned in kunde 3 are not costing our jvp anything, we will eventually be able to frac kennedy and have invaluable knowledge on the frac processes.. its a painful time i agree but not without its rewards imho.. i am told by adi that TCEI is very aware of all the jvp's situations..

but as with all things, we all have entry and exit strategies, mine is not price driven at all, mine is entirely on the premise of the successful outcomes on the sugarkane, imho the risk / rewards of that will be as adi have stated.. high risk and high reward.



cant be long

prawn_86 said:

Well im only a student so lets assume small levels.

Admitedly a large holding would take time to buy, or affect the price when dumped, but thats not really what we are testing here

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There certainly isn't a lot of turn over at this stage. It took me the last 2 days to get a 10000 order filled at a price of 34c. ( I put the order in on Monday and was away for 2 days) part filled Tuesday, part filled Wednesday. Any demand will send the price skyward. Of course a lemming run could do the opposite. Interesting times ahead.

Is this your "swap and accumulation" system in action Nioka or are you taking a punt and just buying more?

cheers

nioka said:

There certainly isn't a lot of turn over at this stage. It took me the last 2 days to get a 10000 order filled at a price of 34c. ( I put the order in on Monday and was away for 2 days) part filled Tuesday, part filled Wednesday. Any demand will send the price skyward. Of course a lemming run could do the opposite. Interesting times ahead.

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i have to say i contimue to admire the way you do it nioka, you are buying more on a decreasing sp across two of the jvp's.. it says to me you would be showing a paper loss each time you do it, yet you would be increasing your holdings in terms of volumes???? i hope i have understood this right.. ( if my brain is working correctly this time of the day)

i like your style.. and you pick the right moments for sure..

transfering wealth from the impatient to the patient imho..

all we need is the kunde results and then the support will return imho.. maybe a touch sooner for the speculators.. you could jump in now and ride the gap and make some impressive returns if only a little interest returned to the jvp.. but then again it could continue to plunge and nioka can continue to increase his holdings..

Agentm said:

i have to say i contimue to admire the way you do it nioka, you are buying more on a decreasing sp across two of the jvp's.. it says to me you would be showing a paper loss each time you do it, yet you would be increasing your holdings in terms of volumes???? i hope i have understood this right.. ( if my brain is working correctly this time of the day)
)

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It does work that way. Sold 8500 AUT to buy another 10000 ADI. Lately it has been AUT to ADI for an increase in numbers. That has not always been the case. You have to take the market cap of both into the equation for the exposure to sugarloaf. Then consider the interests both have in other projects. I have been able to increase my holdings while creaming off enough profit to say that neither owe me anything but my patience is tested and will admit that without your posts I would have exited completely by now instead have building up the ADI holding.

in terms of the austin chalks, the usual convention is to have a 80% or more decline after 12 months..

the first 6 months.


what i find interesting in the sugarkane is that its very very unconventional indeed..

these unconventional, overpressurised, high matrix porosity chalks, that generates some 3 times more revenue in the condensate factor alone than the gas.. also does not conform to the normal decline ratios of conventional chalks fields like giddings and pearsall..

looking at kunde 1, i dont see much of a decline after 12 months.. a touch over 32%..

i am waiting on the kunde 3 results with great anticipation, and also the kennedy well, as i would like to see that well still producing on a decline of only 32% less after 12 months myself..

we shall wait and see i guess

dyor and all imho

Personally, I am glad no announcement has been made. Imagine giving out great news during a major market sell off like now?!? Would anyone notice?

But wait for the market to begin rebounding, then make an announcement and it should go far!

Waiting and holding - might buy some more...

interesting gas storage unit being expanded in the atkinson field


http://www.escondidogasstorage.com/index.cfm?id=2

Agent M, I honestly don't know how you get all this stuff. Your knowledge of the entire area borders on omniscient. I am surprised one of the oil companies haven't recruited you to keep them updated on their own fields.

mfunksta said:

Agent M, I honestly don't know how you get all this stuff. Your knowledge of the entire area borders on omniscient. I am surprised one of the oil companies haven't recruited you to keep them updated on their own fields.

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hey mf

i think the research i do on all my shares have always put me in front, and even this one as sad as it looks today does not reflect in a moment to the work and potential that is being displayed and undertaken in the greatest state of texas..

It has to remembered its all my own research, and even i get it wrong from time to time.. but the story that sits beneath the earth that we have 60 month and 36 month leases on remains the same, and it wont change for all the research i nor anyone does..

one thing really badly missed by the market in the last week is the baker announcement, now there is imho confirmation that the formation is flowing in the horizontal with massive mud weights on it whilst trying to keep control of the well, and failing to whilst drilling, and indeed to the degree that they couldnt continue, pulled out of the hole as best they could, and the rig workers can now come off the medications for their nerves in the coming months!! well thats how i read the announcement..

so if you take all that mud away, whats going to happen to your well??

if you have a formation dissallowing you to drill, with massive mud weights, and being "observed" flowing.. then you have to conclude it looks great for the formation if all you need to do is a low cost water frac and get the well on production as it is open hole!!

For zone1 to be doing this is fantastic news.. confirmation that the zone 1 is flowing for 12 months with minimal decline at kunde 1, and confirmation that the horizontal well 3 miles from us, and in the same formation, is equally showing everything a well will to demonstrate it wants to produce..



just as a curious little note IMHO until now all things sugarkane have very strange meanings..

SL1..

Elevated background readings = 200,000 acres leasing spree + "Well was trying to flow back gas during the logging operations"


Kennedy

Elevated background readings = ??? (overbalanced oil based mud) one heck of a well imho

Baker

Gas shows and flares = midnight county wide gas light show and as saddam would have said " mother of all flares" plus attempted rig launch to outer space

Kunde 3

65 foot baby (compared to others) Gas flares = formation unable to be fraced by one of the best frac crew in the US of A..



as usual we see this ground hog day statement repeated on all announcements

"The commercial significance of the gas shows will not be known until the full results of any testing are analyzed."


and as much as i can research, i cannot find anywhere in texas where anyone was unable to frac a chalks well due to the formation pressure exceeding the pressure the city of frac trucks could generate.. thats un heard of..

this is an unconventional chalks play, with the formation hardly having any significant drop off or decline in 12 months of production, with high matrix proosity and extremely overpressurised..

there are a stack of horizontals recently put on line in live oak, bee and karnes in the edwards, not a great deal of them are getting the sorts of pressures kunde 1 has.. and imho the horizontals have a great deal more psi than kunde 1 has.. if the horizontal had 4000 psi like kunde 1 had then no problem with the frac.. you have to imagine what pressures the formation is throwing now in kunde 3..

did i mention the condensate levels in the gas in this sugarkane? it has a gravity of 57 and is in the sugarkane generating 3 times more revenue than the gas.. ie kunde 1.. $800k gas $2.4 mill condensate in 12 months.... i like those numbers!!


still holding and enjoying the story every day more and more..

We'll I for one would like to know when we will be testing 'our' well, as the shares are not going to go up even if baker starts making conoco and EME $1m a day. ADI needs to show some results in texas (hard numbers) before their shares will be anything like what they were. Risk and low cap stocks and good stories are dead (for now)

NWE: AC/P 32 Farm-out to Cosmo Energy

ok, so why was that such bad news? Or is it just that the market is sucking so baddly today? This industry hasn't been hit any worse than any other. Am I missing something?

*

subject to finalisation of farmout​

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This is madness. There is absolutely zero Sugarloaf value built into share price.

How long can the testing be strung out because it is killing the JVPs and they will be issuing twice as many shares as before to raise the same capital (assuming the JVPs raise capital to develop Sugarloaf - which the market obviously thinks will never happen).

Does CP have the JVPs exactly where it wants them now?

Has to be the most frustrating stock I have ever held.

I'm with you Broadside. I remember thinking last November that "It can't be long now!" I understand in a sense what the delays have been in terms of acreage accumulation etc. But it must surely be so close now!
You read about what is happening down the road, it is all exciting stuff, but the news doesn't seem to help our cause at ADI.

Still waiting & hope that the news will still be good!!

Regards

Bazza

Broadside said:

This is madness. There is absolutely zero Sugarloaf value built into share price.

How long can the testing be strung out because it is killing the JVPs and they will be issuing twice as many shares as before to raise the same capital (assuming the JVPs raise capital to develop Sugarloaf - which the market obviously thinks will never happen).

Does CP have the JVPs exactly where it wants them now?

Has to be the most frustrating stock I have ever held.

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Agree...it is madness. Nothing has changed with the potential of the Sugarkane play. That is nothing except that Baker was trying to flow back and they are now about to test it open hole. That is massive and if it does produce at commercial rates we will see some interest back in the JVP.

Delays at Kunde are killing us...Kennedy is sitting there waiting to be tested but not until they sort Kunde and work out the best way to frac the well. Who knows how long we have to wait but I'm sure some of the top 20 shareholders will be asking Chris as he moves around the country this week with an ADI roadshow...Shoud be some questions coming his way in Brisbane today

Lets hope there is not to much longer for the testing to be sorted and we get some news. Still holding and think that 26c was a steal...good luck all long term holders.

Broadside said:

This is madness. There is absolutely zero Sugarloaf value built into share price.

How long can the testing be strung out because it is killing the JVPs and they will be issuing twice as many shares as before to raise the same capital (assuming the JVPs raise capital to develop Sugarloaf - which the market obviously thinks will never happen).

Does CP have the JVPs exactly where it wants them now?

Has to be the most frustrating stock I have ever held.

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Would CP deliberately delay results, in order to have Jvp's sp fall, making them an attractive takeover target. I posed this question a few months ago.

Gspot said:

Would CP deliberately delay results, in order to have Jvp's sp fall, making them an attractive takeover target. I posed this question a few months ago.

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Yeah, I posed the same question on hotcopper last week, because rice seems confident the JVPs will get taken out in the next year or two. The way this is playing out they will be at the mercy of a cashed up major (all this is assuming of course SL meets our hopes).

In about 2 years we can look back on this thread and see it as die hard denialists of what the market is telling us, or one of the great bargains of all time. I hold, why wouldn't I when the results still haven't come in?