ADI - Adelphi Energy

reasonable time-frame.

I see problems with cash for ADI. The longer this all takes, the greater chance they will need to raise funds sooner rather than later. Drilling and fraccing in Texas is not cheap and this complex set of wells will be costing plenty. ADI will be burning the cash pretty quickly. If Kennedy doesn't flow commercially quickly, ADI are caught between a rock and a hard place. There will be no flow and no cash. They will then ask shareholders to dip in more money and to do that in a depressed position will not be easy.
The next month or two will be critical. Get commercial flow from Kennedy and the shares climb back towards the 70c to $1.00 area. Don't get commercial flow and the market crucifies the ADI price to around 25c and then they have to raise money at 20c or less.

i think you'll find that commercial flow at kenedy means a lot more to ADI's share price than 70c to 100c. But obviously we'll have to wait and see. Yes, there is a lot resting on this.

q44 is incorrect

conocophilips allows all production wells and teams christmas and boxing day off, so sites like kunde 3 and 2 and 1 were on holidays, whereas Baker, which has a drilling team on it still worked.

kunde 3 is going through a complicated frac program, and conoco are taking their time, as with all things, there are delays and problems when dealing with these depths and an overpressurised formation. once the kunde wells are fraced they will either replicate or improve the program to the kennedy well.

i think what is being missed by many is the fact kennedy is on hold. many doubters out there are in disbelief that the sugarkane play is as potentially extensive as it is, and the sheer potential size of the play is currently ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls" please read the last agm presentation closely.

http://www.adelphienergy.com.au/fil...mber 2007 - Adelphi 2007 AGM Presentation.pdf

If you have read and understood the previous announcements, then you you can understand the critical facts are in play still.

Sugarkane and indeed all three zones are what a broker described perfectly recently as a "me too" formation. what they have in the kunde and baker wells is what we have in sugarloaf 1 and Kennedy 1H

The point being missed is that these identical formations are capable of producing some extremely enticing production, and without doubt the TCEI would be greatly underestimating when allowing figures like this out, ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls". I trust TCEI in their appraisals, i think they would have calculated the potential and downsized it with by the direction of and assistance by conocophillips.

So whats so important about the formations being identical in this stratographic play? It means ADI and the JVP's have been told by TCEI to save costs and alleviate replicating expensive research, they have opted to wait for the frac program in the identical formations in the kunde wells, thereby saving a lot of expense. the idea being if kunde flows, then absolutely kennedy will.

as for the false claims the operator has not got commercial flow from the formation, this is a totally false claim. The formation, sugarkane zone 1, has already got commercial flow from the vertical well in Kunde 1. and that well is choked back to the max.. The program at the moment is to construct horizontal wells to get fast payback and tap into the vast resource available to the jvp. just be wary if your researching the play and please read the adi presentation i posted above, it confirms the fact. there are people around desperately trying to cast seeds of doubt about right now, unable to post without personal remarks and attacks on anyone who posts on any forum, making wild claims on the financial viability of adi, and producing no evidence to back up the claims..look at what the poster is doing, assess the motivations.

"Cash Position
As at 30 September 2007, Adelphi’s cash reserves totaled some A$8.3 million. Of this amount US$2.84 million (approx. A$3.4 million) has been secured against Letters of Credit which have been issued by Adelphi in favor of the Yemen Government authorities, representing Adelphi’s minimum work obligations for Blocks 7 and 74"



"The challenge for us is to produce hydrocarbons from
these Chalk rocks at commercial rates – and to
appraise and develop the acreage under lease in a
reasonable time-frame."

"Summary
Company well placed for success
• Sugarloaf testing and Sugarkane drilling and
testing results imminent
• Yemen is looking highly prospective
• AC/P32 Wisteria prospect has matured nicely and
is on the verge of being farmed out
New ventures in South East Asia in progress
• Emphasis on near-term drilling activity"


dyor, and dont believe simple one liners with no evidence to back them up..

this is an oil and gas explorer, always make your own risk reward assessments,

looking forward to the days ahead as tom kelly has recently announced.

"the sheer potential size of the play is currently ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls"

Critical word there agentm is "POTENTIAL".

"If you have read and understood the previous announcements, then you you can understand the critical facts are in play still."

Agree it's still in play but time is money.

"what they have in the kunde and baker wells is what we have in sugarloaf 1 and Kennedy 1H"

Not necessarily.

"the idea being if kunde flows, then absolutely kennedy will."

False!! There are NO ABSOLUTES in oil and gas exploration. To say if Kunde flows, Kennedy ABSOLUTELY will is ridiculous. It "probably" will but no guarantee.

"as for the false claims the operator has not got commercial flow from the formation, this is a totally false claim."

The claim was ADI have got no commercial flow and that cannot be refuted. Right now, ADI have got zilch as far as commercial flow goes.

"As at 30 September 2007, Adelphi’s cash reserves totaled some A$8.3 million"

Three months later, how much do you think is left of that? How much is needed for the next three months?

A reality check is needed for ADI holders. The Sugarloaf/Sugarkane could still be a company maker but it is far from certain as some people seem to think.

""the sheer potential size of the play is currently ">3 TCF and 500mmbbls"

Critical word there agentm is "POTENTIAL"."

correct, the critical word is potential, and thats a damn sight more than 50 bcf!!


""If you have read and understood the previous announcements, then you you can understand the critical facts are in play still."

Agree it's still in play but time is money."


time is not money, time is time, saving money on designing a frac program from scratch is very clever.. the JVP has agreed to this, and any shareholder can exit if they chose.


"what they have in the kunde and baker wells is what we have in sugarloaf 1 and Kennedy 1H"

Not necessarily."

yes, absolutely..


""the idea being if kunde flows, then absolutely kennedy will."

False!! There are NO ABSOLUTES in oil and gas exploration. To say if Kunde flows, Kennedy ABSOLUTELY will is ridiculous. It "probably" will but no guarantee."

not correct, i can believe it will absolutely flow, and thast what i inevested for, the frac program it designed to get great delivery from the identical formations in all the horizontals, it will flow if they get the frac sorted.


""as for the false claims the operator has not got commercial flow from the formation, this is a totally false claim."

The claim was ADI have got no commercial flow and that cannot be refuted. Right now, ADI have got zilch as far as commercial flow goes."

your deluded in thinking ADI is the operator, ADi is part of a JVP, the operator is TCEI . you are totally aware the kunde 1 well is commercial and the operator has a JVP with adi, eme, aut and eka on the 20,000 acres, the operator has interests in the entire 200,000acrs of the sugarkane.


""As at 30 September 2007, Adelphi’s cash reserves totaled some A$8.3 million"

Three months later, how much do you think is left of that? How much is needed for the next three months? "

not much

"A reality check is needed for ADI holders. The Sugarloaf/Sugarkane could still be a company maker but it is far from certain as some people seem to think."

any investor in adi doesnt need to be reminded of whats happening out there, they are all extremely aware of the ongoing efforts by conoco phillips and TCEI to finish kunde 3 and 3 and then get stuck into kennedy..

risk reward, you can buy and sell as you wish,,

Hi all,
Hope everyone had an enjoyable new year, looking forward to trading the challanges of 2008, cannot help but wonder where the All Ords will be at the end of the year.

Back to ADI
From a TA point, the sellers are still the dominant players, certainly not in an accumulation phase.

Broken down out of a significant trading range - Mar '07 to Nov '07, price now
back to July '05 levels.

Weekly Chart
Cheers

agentm on August 15, 2007.
"i came close to snaring another 100k today, some clown had it at .62

i was on the phones trying to get the funds together, then it went away!!

to be frank it would be overextending, but even for a few weeks i think i could have made a great return!!

for those fortunate enough to have the cash,, good luck!! i envy you.."

The "clown" selling 100K at 62c had the last laugh. the clown eventually bailed at average 60c. Guess who the clown was? The "clown" bought at 67c and copped a $7,000 haircut. The "clown" is thankful he only lost $7,000 and moved on. The "clown" thanks the buyer who stepped up to the plate.

banksa,

Please refrain from posting comments that are just rubbing mistakes in other members faces.

We all make mistakes. and you seem to have a strong opinion that ADI is going down, without providing a lot of evidence as yet.

Thanks.

Prawn

banska bystrica said:

agentm on August 15, 2007.
"i came close to snaring another 100k today, some clown had it at .62

i was on the phones trying to get the funds together, then it went away!!

to be frank it would be overextending, but even for a few weeks i think i could have made a great return!!

for those fortunate enough to have the cash,, good luck!! i envy you.."

The "clown" selling 100K at 62c had the last laugh. the clown eventually bailed at average 60c. Guess who the clown was? The "clown" bought at 67c and copped a $7,000 haircut. The "clown" is thankful he only lost $7,000 and moved on. The "clown" thanks the buyer who stepped up to the plate.

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I must say this is a bit unnecessary. I have been accumulating ADI for 18 months now and have bought as high as 93cps back in feb 07 and I don't sweat it. Youd don't make a loss until you sell.

You may well be "that clown" when the sp could very well be much higher in 6 months time!

Warren Buffet once said "The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient"

ADI and AUT have been good for me during 2007. I have been trading back and forth between the two as I have often posted. Luckily I chose to cream off some profit each time. My main holding now is AUT, which is holding better than ADI but it may be time to reverse the situation again. I have usually sold ADI and bought AUT when 2 ADI bought 3 AUT and went back to ADI when they were close to one another. In the past I have not swapped when AUT was worth more than ADI as is the case now. I'm still prepared to hold both or either as I am a believer. I'm not sure how much to outlay on just a belief. I would like to see more volume traded before I act.
Maybe I'm typing out my thoughts to help me decide. ??????????????

nioka said:

ADI and AUT have been good for me during 2007. I have been trading back and forth between the two as I have often posted. Luckily I chose to cream off some profit each time. My main holding now is AUT, which is holding better than ADI but it may be time to reverse the situation again. I have usually sold ADI and bought AUT when 2 ADI bought 3 AUT and went back to ADI when they were close to one another. In the past I have not swapped when AUT was worth more than ADI as is the case now. I'm still prepared to hold both or either as I am a believer. I'm not sure how much to outlay on just a belief. I would like to see more volume traded before I act.
Maybe I'm typing out my thoughts to help me decide. ??????????????

Click to expand...

Hey Nokia,

I think success in Texas will see both of them kick along the same lines...it will really depend on which one you see doing better in the long haul. I'm in ADI primarily for Texas but will also be hanging around for Yemen as I think there is a lot of opportunity there.

Would love to see a good result to get us back on the right path and I will be keeping a close eye on EME over the coming days as their Kunde well gets close to give us the first indication of how these horizontals go.

prawn_86 said:

banksa,

Please refrain from posting comments that are just rubbing mistakes in other members faces.

We all make mistakes. and you seem to have a strong opinion that ADI is going down, without providing a lot of evidence as yet.

Thanks.

Prawn

Click to expand...

Point taken. By the way, I don't actually have a strong opinion that ADI is going down. It all depends on Kennedy and that could turn out great. I'm just pointing out the contra argument to agentm's.

noika

i had a detailed lease map up over the last days, its not hard to work out the acreages based on images in the presentations and the leases details i have in my database, which gives me exact acreages in the hands of TCEI. I was thinking about AUT and i have thought the same thing myself, like you, i wonder how people view the AUT gamble on going "all in" on this play. EKA has a one play stratergy also, i have to say i know a few of the larger holders in AUT are extremely confident, and they will benifit from the acreages that are in the area between the wells.. i look at the size of this play and have studied the chalks wells in the 200,000 acres in karnes county. a lot of cash has been invested in the chalks, pioneer had a nice look at the sugarkane late 2006 in live oak, and shut the meeks well in, no testing needed, and its no P&A! they will learn how conoco is doing things and no doubt and the next few months will see a lot more activity from all interested stakeholders, not just the TCEi sugarloaf ami jvp.



interesting days to come i think..

just as a bit of a side note, these leases i am posting, the ones with purple dots, are coming close to expiry, they would have to be drilled in the first 12 months. there are others in the north, but this batch is interesting as they are in the baker region, and baker is doing fine i hear..

maverick11 said:

You don't make a loss until you sell.

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I disagree actually. A paper loss is just as real. There have been many chapters in financial management books dedicated to this topic but that is for others to read up on. Let's just agree to disagree.
Right now, my decision to take a small loss selling at 60c is the right one. I can always purchase my shares back at approx 40c and keep the $20K "saved" in my pocket.

banska bystrica said:

Let's just agree to disagree.
Right now, my decision to take a small loss selling at 60c is the right one. I can always purchase my shares back at approx 40c and keep the $20K "saved" in my pocket.

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BB, I think its perfectly obvious to all that we do agree to disagree. Most posters on this site tend to be quite optimistic on the prospect (and you are simply more cautious??), so good for you.

The point of the holders is that ADI could do anything, and rather then trying to time a purchase as you may do, we are happy to hold and wait for the rewards that we expect. Your approach or ours could prove a better option, which of course will be known at some time in the future, but as you say lets agree to disagree. Lets not turn this into a copy of the UK ADFVN EME boards. ....luckily the mods here can moderate all posts

In regards to AgentM's "all in" question, my preference is to hold a larger batch of EKA and AUT then ADI as I think they will be more leveraged to the kane, however if the worst was to happen, its still no more then 10-15% of my portfolio, so a manageable risk in my opinion and for my risk profile.

Good luck to all holders.... and timers

agentm,
Your research is second to none. I commend you on that. However, don't you honestly think that if this play was a certainty, those in the know would be buying as many shares as they can at these prices? Something's just not quite right here. "IF" they've got the porosity Couch mentioned in 2006, then I would say the shares are a steal at 40c.

banska bystrica said:

There have been many chapters in financial management books dedicated to this topic but that is for others to read up on.

Click to expand...

Also sorry for the off topic, but the book I'm reading at the moment "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits" is a highly recommended read. He is probably the person that Buffet's approach is most based off (more then Ben Graham), and has interesting thoughts on timing investments. Granted its not as applicable to what we are discussing now, but still a great book!!

resourceboom said:

BB, I think its perfectly obvious to all that we do agree to disagree. Most posters on this site tend to be quite optimistic on the prospect (and you are simply more cautious??), so good for you.

The point of the holders is that ADI could do anything, and rather then trying to time a purchase as you may do, we are happy to hold and wait for the rewards that we expect. Your approach or ours could prove a better option, which of course will be known at some time in the future, but as you say lets agree to disagree. Lets not turn this into a copy of the UK ADFVN EME boards.

In regards to AgentM's "all in" question, my preference is to hold a larger batch of EKA and AUT then ADI as I think they will be more leveraged to the kane, however if the worst was to happen, its still no more then 10-15% of my portfolio, so a manageable risk in my opinion and for my risk profile.

Good luck to all holders.... and timers

Click to expand...

I agree. let's keep this thread friendly. Good friends often disagree respectfully. For all the work agentm has put in, he deserves commercial flow with abundant gas and more than enough oil.

mav.

there are those who claim a lot of things and those that do..

try and disprove that i didnt sell all my holdings at $1 and buy them back in the last few months. its just words, and bravado, its not really the discussion point, i have taken some profit and dont make a song and dance over it.. its part of the investment cycle as all people have to consider it.. i know a lot of holders who have taken profit and have bought back in. i like nioka, he has always declared when he got in and out, an i like his style, he doesnt do it for brownie points, he just has a very interesting way of jumping between the jvp partners and historically he has just passed on his views in a polite and interesting way, and very non judgemental..
for all you know i may have started with 5k lets say 5 years ago and now today i may be close to a top 20 holder in ADi amoungst other investments! hey you never know it may be the truth and it may be just a pack of garbage.. i know the truth of it and its not relevant to the adi share what point i got in or got out, my interest has always been in researching the reasons for the delays, and they keep bringing up interesting things..

i like to post informations on the adi jvp, but i notice a lot of posts are never commenting on those aspects, they are designed to deflect from anything posted on the stock, like in the uk, keep the topic personal and aggressively attack anything, as long as i post there will be the ones who will just chip away..

my strategy in adi was to accumulate and for NT and Sugarloaf results.. even thats changed, turns out kennedy will beat them both, who would have thought that!!

will hold for the results, no need to sell out now and take profit, as i dont want to pay the capital gains and will stick by my plan to hold for the outcomes. we have different reasons to buy and sell, and we all have to put up with hindsight cowboys everywhere. claiming they did this and they did that.. theres one particular person who has made it his single goal to see my investment in adi fail, and post non stop every time i do some "counter" remark to save the world from adi. adi is just another oil and gas explorer, it has an exciting prospect and will soon see the operator, TCEI take an active role in finishing off the kennedy well. and i like all investors have to wait for the outcome.

a few months ago a major holder bought adi, and i believe it was in the millions, for .53......... so what!!!!!!!! do we have to lay praise on the seller day in day out and then say day in day out that the buyer has bad insights and made a shocking error? hey if the forum has to degenerate to that then so be it, but i will continue to research the adi jvp and contribute!! as for paper losses, i know guys happy to take paper losses and buy in again, swings and round abouts!! all to deflect from the discussions!